News

Will the PGA Championship be another boring Sunday?

Published

12 years ago

Aug 9, 2014

If the 2009 major championship season was the year of the botched storyline–Cabrera over Perry, Glover over Mickelson and Duval, Cink over Watson, Yang over Woods–the 2014 campaign has shaped up as the curse of the boring Sundays.

Oddly, the Masters appeared in the midst of a final-round masterpiece seven holes in, with an electrifying 20-year-old Jordan Spieth scorching Augusta National’s opening holes for a one-shot lead and seemingly traversing his way to an extraordinary bit of history.

At that moment though, the enormity of the occasion set in, Spieth fell off and Bubba Watson was never challenged on the back nine. The U.S. Open was essentially over by Friday afternoon. The Open Championship—while employing a marketable lead character—held an ounce of final-round drama for roughly five minutes. Should viewers even stick around this Sunday for ~~Glory’s Last Shot~~ the PGA Championship?

The pattern is alarming, and not the greatest development when golf has experienced a bevy of attacks, but it’s also random. For the most part, there’s no rhyme or reason to the excitement level of a major championship Sunday. As each tournament’s final round is an independent event, it’s no more likely we see an exciting PGA Sunday following three dramatic major finishes than three weak ones.

While that debunks one set of evidence for a PGA snoozefest, does there exist any data that suggests 2014’s final major will have a rollicking conclusion? And what exactly is an “exciting finish” anyway?

To reverse order here, the term “exciting finish” is obviously ambiguous and any definition will be somewhat arbirtrary, but our rubric is simple. A tournament where there is a significant question as to the victor somewhere over the final two holes of regulation is deemed “exciting.”

As for the potential of an exciting finish this week, there are certainly positive signs on this subject, but it’s all a matter of whether they prove truly substantive.

We can point to the fact that Valhalla has a proven track record producing impressive showdowns over the final 18 holes in stroke play (and added time). Of course the 2000 PGA Championship battle between Tiger Woods and Bob May lives on in folklore—possibly this generation’s “Duel in the Sun”—but the 1996 PGA at Valhalla didn’t exactly lack excitement either. That event also went to a playoff, and the Senior PGA Championships Valhalla hosted in 2004 and 2011 were in question all the way through.

Actually, three of these four tournaments finished in playoffs! If any major championship course boasts an ability to bring out the scintillating conclusion, it’s Valhalla.

Four tournaments are a small sample size though, and likely too small to indicate that Valhalla is unusually adept at fostering interesting Sunday action. We could easily say that Valhalla’s 4-for-4 strike is simply the product of randomness. We need a much bigger pool of professional tournaments on the layout to gather real insight here.

Maybe that’s a bust, but this isn’t the only potential reasoning favoring a nerve-wracking Sunday. Combing back through the past 15 PGA Championships (1999-2013), conservatively 11 of them fit our admittedly strict “exciting finish” criteria. That’s a 73 percent rate of success for closing drama.

As for the other majors, the findings are similarly robust. The Masters is 9 for 16 (57 percent), the U.S. Open 11 for 16 (69 percent) and the Open Championship 10 for 16 (63 percent). Over this large time span, a clear trend develops: Significantly more majors see tension over the final holes than not.

From the outset then, the PGA had a healthy majority chance of being must-see Sunday television. In fact, every major experiences a probability of this sort. Three consecutive majors not following this path, as has been the case in 2014, is really an incredibly unlikely occurrence.

Based on these percentages, you should’ve woken up Thursday morning expecting a spectacular Sunday finale.

And that premonition should only be stronger now.

We have to of course add the 54-hole leaderboard into the exciting finish equation. After all, it’s tougher to envision a packed leaderboard late Sunday when one player is out in front by six or eight to start the day.

The current PGA Championship standings contain no such frontrunner and are decently crowded. Five players are within three of the lead, nine are within four and 18 are within six. The leader, Rory McIlroy has turned three major championship 54-hole leads into Sunday snoozers, but they all involved instances where the Northern Irishman was ahead by at least three. At the PGA, his lead is just one.

Overall, these 54-hole scores show a lot of promise for a race to the finish in round four. This year’s Masters leaderboard may have been even more primed for a great finish than the PGA–and we all know how that worked out–but all that instance proves is that a smushed leaderboard is not a guarantee of a highly-charged Sunday, not an improbability for one.

Really things are looking up for us to avoid a shutout in 2014 major championship Sundays. No negative signs are readily apparent and majors tend to slide toward final-holes uncertainty. And this leaderboard is decently suited for a tight battle.

I expect this event to be closed out right at the end Sunday. Who will be the victor? That’s anyone’s guess. But the existence of such a question after these past two months is progress in itself.

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Kevin Casey

Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

22 Comments

Ballstriker

Aug 11, 2014 at 1:38 am

That would be a firm NO! Fantastic finish!

Reply Report comment
MHendon

Aug 10, 2014 at 10:25 pm

No Tiger equals boring, boring, boring…. Golf is DEAD without Tiger, I bet the TV ratings where miserably low. Know one cares about these other guys. Tiger, Tiger, Tiger we need Tiger, our golf god Tiger, where lost without you Tiger!!!! Ok so that was a joke… great tournament!

Reply Report comment
Christian

Aug 10, 2014 at 10:22 pm

Put me down for a “no”.

Reply Report comment
Taylor

Aug 10, 2014 at 9:35 pm

This was the best final round I have seen in quite some time. It was only too bad that the light became an issue at the end and the whole playing up thing on 18. I think phil or rickie could have had a better shot to make an eagle.

Reply Report comment
- Christian
  
  Aug 10, 2014 at 10:21 pm
  
  Put me down for a “no”.
  
  Reply Report comment
marcel

Aug 10, 2014 at 9:02 pm

what a final day!!! great work Rors and super push from everyone

Reply Report comment
PaloAltoPlaya

Aug 10, 2014 at 8:45 pm

Far from boring!! Tiger who?!?!?

Reply Report comment
R

Aug 10, 2014 at 4:58 pm

Yes, total snooze fest today. Only a super tightly packed leaderboard.

Reply Report comment
- Kevin Casey
  
  Aug 10, 2014 at 7:01 pm
  
  I wouldn’t say it was insanely tightly packed last night, decently so as I mentioned. But I also agreed that today would be a great finish. Thankfully, the action so far is obliging!
  
  Reply Report comment
Dick

Aug 10, 2014 at 2:14 pm

Because of the inclement weather, yes.

Reply Report comment
west

Aug 10, 2014 at 12:56 pm

These articles are the real snooze fest…

Reply Report comment
MHendon

Aug 10, 2014 at 11:32 am

Personally I found the Open to be pretty interesting, but unlike the author of this article I don’t need Tiger in the hunt to be interested.

Reply Report comment
- bradford
  
  Aug 11, 2014 at 12:46 pm
  
  Let it go…This wasn’t about Tiger until YOU took it there. You are the cause, not the solution.
  
  Reply Report comment
Bobby

Aug 10, 2014 at 11:30 am

Prediction time!

Phil shoots a 64 to get to -17 and Rory shoots -4 to also get to -17. Playoff time! But I don’t have a clue who will win the playoff

Reply Report comment
Christosterone

Aug 10, 2014 at 10:21 am

I could watch re-aired coverage of the 1976 PGA abd would be riveted…
So i am clearly not the demographic to ask as I will watch Sunday Majors regardless of who is in contention.

And while I am jingoistic (typically) I find myself rooting for Bernd Wiesberger….it would make a difference in his life to a degree none of the others in contention would experience…imho

Reply Report comment
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marty

Aug 10, 2014 at 8:47 am

It will be boring for tiger woods fans.

Reply Report comment
Stuart

Aug 10, 2014 at 5:40 am

Still think scott a real show

Reply Report comment
Dan

Aug 10, 2014 at 2:23 am

I hope wiesbergers nerves hold. he has the game to win this

Reply Report comment
Christosterone

Aug 10, 2014 at 12:37 am

Graham DeLaet goes 62

Reply Report comment
- Madeoflite
  
  Aug 10, 2014 at 2:12 am
  
  No chance
  
  Reply Report comment
  - paul
    
    Aug 10, 2014 at 2:39 am
    
    65? ????
    
    Reply Report comment

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Around the world, the golf wheel spun this final week in May of 2026. From New Jersey to Austria, with stops in Korea, Texas, and North Carolina (don’t let me route your next trip) the world’s finest put their golf games on display. There were three playoffs, some known commodities and some new talent. It was the sort of week that we hope to have at this point in the seasons. June and July afford double-digit major events, and perhaps, one of this week’s champions will use this success as a springboard to new heights. Time to run it all down, tech style, in this week’s Tour Tech Rundown.

Thanks to WITBHub, Today’s Golfer, GolfWRX, and Inside Tour Golf for initial research into equipment.

PGA Tour @ Charles Schwab Challenge: Heroic Henley denies Cole

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Henley’s Suitcase

Driver: Titleist TSi3 at 10 degrees. Shaft: Project X HZRDUS Smoke Black 70g 6.5 TX
Metal: Titleist TS3 at 16.5 degrees. Shaft: Project X HZRDUS Smoke Black 80 TX
Hybrid: Titleist TSi2 at 21 degrees. Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT hybrid 100 TX
Iron: Titleist T250 4-iron. Shaft: True Temper Dynamic Golf AMT Tour White X100
Irons: Titleist T100 5-6 irons. Shaft: True Temper Dynamic Golf AMT Tour White X100
Irons: Titleist T100 7-9 irons. Shaft: True Temper Dynamic Gold Tour Issue X100
Wedges: Titleist Vokey Design SM11 at 48 and 50 degrees. Shaft: True Temper Dynamic Golf Tour Issue X100
Wedges: Titleist Vokey Design SM11 at 54 and 60 degrees. Shaft: rue Temper Dynamic Golf Tour Issue S400
Putter: Titleist Scotty Cameron T5 Tour Prototype

LPGA @ Shoprite LPGA: Welcome back, Celine!

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Celine Boutier was the It Girl in 2023. She collected four victories, including a major title at Evian. Boutier reached world number one status, then simply faded into the background. No wins came her way over the next 30 months. On Sunday, she collected LPGA victory number seven, at the same trace as LPGA victory number two.

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Celine’s Suitcase

Driver: PXG 0311 Black Ops Tour-1 at 9 degrees. Shaft: Graphite Design AD IZ-5
Hybrid: PXG 0311 Black Ops at 19 and 22 degrees. Shaft: KBS Hybrid Prototype
Hybrid: PXG 0311 Gen5.
Iron: PXG 0311 P Gen 4 5-9 irons
Wedge: PXG 0311 T Gen 4 PW
Wedges: PXG 0311 Sugar Daddy II at 50, 54, 58 degrees
Putter: Bettinardi Studio Stock 3 DASS

DP World Tour @ Austrian Alpine: KK? KK!

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Kaneko’s Suitcase

Driver: Ping Max G440
Metals: TaylorMade Qi4D at 15, 16.5, 21, and 24 degrees
Irons: TaylorMade P760 5 and 6 irons
Irons: TaylorMade P7TW 7-9 irons
Wedges: Titleist Vokey Design at 46, 52, 56, and 60 degrees
Putter: Odyssey Ai-One Cruiser Arm Lock #7

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Alvaro’s Suitcase

Driver: Ping G430 MAX driver at 9 degrees loft
Metal: Ping G430 MAX 3W
Iron: Ping iDi Driving Iron
Irons: Ping Blueprint S irons
Wedges
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A party on the green!

Alvaro’s time comes in Raleigh with his first win @UNCHealthChamp ? pic.twitter.com/2dmtZdbSzk

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Niemann’s Suitcase