Opinion & Analysis
Golfers most likely to catch fire at the end of 2014
We’ve had glimpses of meteoric play on the PGA Tour this season—namely Jimmy Walker, Bubba Watson and Martin Kaymer—but nothing that’s struck as sustainably brilliant.
In that sense, there’s some disappointment with how the golfing year has transpired. Henrik Stenson’s run over the last five months of the 2013 season easily reigns as the best stretch of golf in the past calendar year.
Two majors and a few months of golf still remain. Are we in for another Stenson-like performance (or greater) from the golfing professionals?
Here are the five most likely players (with two wildcards) to replicate, or at least approach such a performance.
Wildcards
Brendan Steele
Steele won in his maiden PGA Tour season and would have been a prime candidate for Rookie of the Year if not for Keegan Bradley’s insanely successful maiden campaign. Steele maintains more than thrives on Tour, steadying his diet with a few top-10s and a half-dozen top-25s per year without really threatening to do more. But he has a lot more game than the average viewer gives him credit for. At times in 2014, he’s appeared on the verge of a career year—basically reaching his season averages in top-10 and top-25s before April—and rekindling the fire with back-to-back top-fives in the final weeks of June.
Maybe he’s not quite seasoned enough yet for a rapid jump, but he’s an under the radar candidate for a breakout in the near future.
Thorbjorn Olesen
Objective measures are the name of the game here, but golf is downright sociopathic when it comes to removing logic from the experience. So going with one player purely on gut is appropriate then, right?
Olesen, who goes by his middle name because it’s cooler than Jacob, has struggled in 2014. Seven made cuts in 16 starts isn’t pretty. He currently wouldn’t qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs or the DP World Tour Championship. He also tends to produce his best stuff—at this point one win and a number of high finishes—early in the season rather than late.
Nothing points to an end-of-2014 run for Olesen, except for his perceived superstar-level ability. It’s a guessing game when this monster will be unleashed; here’s a blind toss that it is quite soon.
Five to Watch
Keegan Bradley
When he isn’t pouring ice water on his head—and doing so poorly, apparently—Bradley produces at a steady rate on the golf course. The 28-year-old’s 2014 campaign has been rather dull to the moment, with a solid, but unspectacular five top-10s and 10 top-25s in 20 PGA Tour starts. And Bradley only really threatened to win on two occasions, at Bay Hill and the Zurich Classic.
Nothing appears amiss in Bradley’s game, but there’s no doubt a certain spark is absent. Expect that to change in the coming months. For one, the native of New England feels he plays his best golf in the summer. His results moderately back him up too, as two of his three wins came in the summer months.
This is also a Ryder Cup year and Bradley currently sits 18th in the standings. Nobody is more motivated to qualify for the team than Bradley, whose bounce-off-the-walls energy married perfectly with the high-intensity atmosphere of the event in his 2012 debut.
Above all though, Bradley is extremely overdue for another win, and likely multiple ones. Victories have more to do with luck and circumstance than anyone will admit. Looking solely off win totals, Bradley was at his best in his 2011 rookie season, when he scored two titles, and has regressed since with one victory in 2012 and none thereafter. Yet the reality is the direct opposite, with Bradley demonstrably improving each year. He contends more consistently as time goes on, and there are no signs the lack of wins is attributable to a growing aversion to Sunday pressure—luck and circumstance intervene. (This putt likely kept Bradley out of the winners’ circle in 2013. It was well struck, and probably deserved to go in. It didn’t, and Bradley’s chances at victory significantly dropped after a good stroke.)
The putter is an issue, as the 28-year-old switched to a shorter non-anchored flatstick for the Memorial Tournament and has admitted that the impending ban on the anchored stroke constantly weighs on his mind. But Bradley made it clear his change at the Memorial was only a trial period, and he appears to be committed to staying with the belly through the rest of this season. Don’t be surprised if he anchors down a couple of victories before 2014 is finished.
Charley Hoffman
This has to happen at some point, right?
The Hoffman paradox continues to roll on, as the formerly mulleted fellow remains one of the most consistent yet frustrating players in the game. Hoffman has reached $1 million in earnings every season of his PGA Tour career (except for 2008, when he grossed $945,702) and refuses to fall victim to a blow up campaign.
But he’s always been capable of so much more.
The Hoffman hype originates back to his incredibly productive first thirteen months on the PGA Tour and regained steam following the stomping he laid on the field at the 2010 Deutsche Bank Championship. A star is yet to emerge.
The potential is there, but why will this chained-down pattern break in the remainder of 2014?
Well, it’s been quiet, but Hoffman’s played the best golf of his career the past several months. With a T3 at the Quicken Loans National, the 37-year-old garnered his fifth top-10 of the season, tying his single-season high for top-10s already. With 10 top-25s, he’s one off his career high there.
Of course, Hoffman has long been dogged as a guy who lights up the course on Thursday and Friday and fades on the weekend. There is some truth here, as he’s alternated between poor and adequate in this aspect.
But he’s become a great weekend player in the 2014, as he ranks 53rd in third round scoring average and 37th on the final day.
Hoffman is a great ball-striker who literally hates putters. When functional though, the flatstick works for him from time to time, as he’s placed 81st or better in strokes gained putting three of the last five seasons and currently sits at 39th in 2014.
Hoffman can’t wait much longer to breakout before age starts to erode his high upside. Now, under no outside pressure and with fantastic form coupled by a more robust weekend output, this is Hoffman’s best chance to pounce.
Justin Rose
Not going out on much of a limb here considering Rose’s recent victory at the Quicken Loans National. Even if it was more of a “I stumbled into the trophy and they let me keep it” sort of deal than a flourishing triumph.
Still, the result is the latest in a flurry of great showings. Since missing the cut at Bay Hill in March, the Englishman committed to his best impression of 2011 Luke Donald, racking up six top-15s in seven starts, half of which are top-fives.
To complete the gag, Rose not only needs to continue that string, he needs to add a few more wins to his slate before 2014 is out. Despite winning at least once every year since 2010, Rose and his game are too polished and all-around great to be satisfied with six victories in five years.
Praise for his ball-striking prowess is incessant, but correct—especially with his irons. Rose’s short game has a kick to it too, as the Englishman tends to be an above-average putter and chipper. The last two years, his flatstick let him down with finishes of 129th and 133rd in strokes gained, but he appears to have remedied the problem in vaulting to 72nd so far in 2014.
Rose has no consistent weaknesses and a few quite potent strengths. How that hasn’t translated into many multiple-win seasons or any three-plus victory campaigns is somewhat perplexing.
Rose made a good decision resting at the beginning of the season because of shoulder tendinitis. In his return, his game hasn’t skipped a beat. His driving and approach play have regressed some, but it appears those are starting to trend back toward his normal elite level. Add the confidence of a major champion to the mix, and maybe we’re finally in for a dominant Justin Rose campaign.
Paul Casey
The story with Casey is that it’s never been enough. Even as his game coalesced into elite form in the later 2000s—from 2006-2010 he averaged nine top-10s a season, won seven times combined on the European and PGA tours and ranked as high as No. 3 in the world—his much-hyped skill was supposed to net him major championships, which he acquired none of.
As has been documented in no short order, Casey then took a nose dive. He actually won early in 2011, but rarely contended the next two years—with just six top-10s between 2011 and 2012—and plummeted to No. 169 in the world at one point.
There’s no doubt his form is returning though. His 2013 was lackluster, but he did return to the winners’ circle at the Irish Open. This year, his name has really re-familiarized itself with the first page of the leaderboard, as he’s gotten out well in the earlier and middle stages of a few tournaments. His issues revolve around carrying over his good playing through Sunday.
Really, Casey’s results from 2006-2013 are remarkably similar to Henrik Stenson’s production from 2005-2012. We know what happened next with Stenson.
That’s not to say Casey will be your FedEx Cup and Race to Dubai champion in 2014. But his talent probably outshines Stenson’s and his pitfalls are a little more understandable considering they were mostly attributable to an extraordinarily unfortunate series of ailments, including rib, shoulder and toe injuries (seriously, since when do golfers get turf toe??) and a difficult divorce.
There’s only one top-10 to his name in 2014, but that really doesn’t do justice to what Casey has flashed this season. It appears there’s a learning curve with sustaining hot bursts of golf when you’ve been out of the spotlight for years, exactly the growing pains Casey experienced these past several months.
He’s prone to snap out of it soon, and as we learned with Stenson, when an immense talent can’t be held down any longer, he’s subject to a crazy good run.
We saw what Casey still had over 36 holes at Muirfield Village, expect to witness much more of that over 72.
Sergio Garcia
This man has been burning it up on the golf course this season, only most people haven’t noticed. Following a productive, but stormy 2013, Garcia’s hardly wasted a round this year. The according results are subtly spectacular. In addition to a victory in Qatar back in January, Garcia’s record includes seven more top-10s, with five of them top-fives and three of them top-threes.
In all honesty, the Spaniard caught fire at the beginning of the year and the flame has gained progressively throughout the season, to the point it might be a danger to the citizenry if it wasn’t metaphorical. And there’s further room to grow.
While fantastic, Garcia’s play is highly inefficient in producing victories. When couching Garcia’s golf in terms of himself versus the field in 2014, few do better. In his events the 34-year-old bested 83.83 percent of his opponents, a defeat rate that ranks third best in the entire game.
It’s surprising then that Garcia hasn’t fallen into more than one victory this season. And it’s not based on any deep-seated inability to close, as Garcia holds 19 career wins between the European and PGA tours.
If inefficiency is bothersome, recent history shows El Nino will soon alleviate the concern. Late in 2011, Garcia concocted two immaculate weeks of golf and won events in consecutive weeks, the first by 11 strokes. He almost duplicated the feat in 2012, capturing the Wyndham Championship and holding the 54-hole lead at the Barclays the next week.
If Garcia continues this form, I don’t see how he can’t at least triple his current season victory total. He leads the PGA Tour in Adjusted Scoring Average, and that’s not even the circuit he won on in 2014! So the only way to stem the tide is for his play to drop off, but his immediate past implies that as the season comes to a close, Garcia will perform at the same or a higher level.
At the very least this is the safest bet on the list. Garcia is both the most likely to come through and the least likely to implode. Whatever his emotional vagaries, the Spaniard’s scores don’t drastically fluctuate. Unless you pick him to win the Masters, he almost unilaterally refuses to miss cuts.
Total lost weekends since the beginning of 2011: four. Yes, four. In nearly four years.
Garcia is no novice at making people look dumb, but this a smart investment for a player who has somehow slipped into an underrated gem.
Opinion & Analysis
AVL: My U.S. Amateur local qualifying experience
This past Monday, I played in the U.S. Amateur local qualifier at Rock Creek Country Club in Portland, Oregon. A full tee sheet from 7:30 a.m. to 1:55 p.m., the top 11 scores would make it to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying.
I teed off at 10:48 a.m.. With the 7:30 am tee time, you can get a feel for the leaders’ pace, and they were off and running on the challenging setup at Rock Creek.
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Getting to the highlight of the round on the par five 17th, a drive up the left side and 212 yards left to the front hole location. I took out a 5-iron with plans of middle of the green. The ball ended up 8 feet left of the hole, pin high. A slight downhill putt dropped in for an eagle 3 on the 17th. With the cut line looking to be anywhere from -2 to even par. This was the boost I had been waiting for all day.
With making par from the trees on 18, it was time to wait for a potential playoff with a posted score of one under par 71.
Three hours later, it was playoff time. 8 players for 6 spots. I made par on the playoff hole, which was good enough to advance to the U.S. Amateur final qualifying in July. USGA qualifiers sure deliver on all of the emotions in golf!
Club Junkie
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The annual What’s In The Bag build is underway, and on this episode of Club Junkie, Brian breaks down the clubs currently leading the race for a spot in his 2026 gamer setup. From drivers and fairway woods to irons, wedges, and shafts, he ranks the equipment that’s performing best and explains what’s separating the front runners from the rest of the field.
Brian also heads into the workshop to discuss several putter projects currently on the bench. From head options and shaft choices to build ideas and testing plans, he shares what he’s working on and which putters could become serious contenders for the bag this season.
If you’re a gear junkie who loves equipment testing, club building, and the never-ending pursuit of the perfect setup, this episode is for you.
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Club Junkie
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I also dive into the new TaylorMade Spider ZT Max putter that was recently spotted and discuss the growing zero torque putter trend. Plus, there is a closer look at the new Project X Titan Yellow shaft showing up on the PGA Tour and what makes it different from other profiles currently out there.
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Mike
Jul 14, 2014 at 8:41 am
I might keep one eye on Tiger Woods, too…
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