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Destination Doral: WGC-Cadillac Championship Preview
By Pete Pappas
GolfWRX Staff Writer
I never imagined these words would be uttered from my lips; let alone believing I’d have the thoughts to begin with. So forgive me.
But golf is starting to take on a sort of superhero-like meaning to me. And it’s become the most exciting sport on the planet to watch as well.
Just take a gander at this week’s World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship, the second WGC of the 2012 PGA Tour season. Showcasing Florida’s TPC Blue Monster, I dare say it approaches a DC Comics “Hall of Justice” type of gathering.
But instead of a congregation of “Super Friends” in deranged costumes and wacky tights, you have a field of PGA Tour superheroes consisting of 49 international players from 16 different countries, including 16 major championship winners. And every player from the Official World Golf Rankings Top 50 will be at Doral for only the third time since 2005.
It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s Bubba Watson’s drive off the tee! If you have a favorite player, he’s probably in the field. And every winner from each of the nine PGA Tour events this year will be present.
OK, so who’s the villain? Why the course itself, of course. The Blue Monster might not be quite as fabled as the Lock Ness Monster, but it’s definitely far more harrowing, even wicked to the players. Particularly No. 18, the signature hole; considered by many to be the toughest hole on the PGA Tour.
“If the winds come into you, though, you’ll see all sorts of numbers, “ said Paul Casey, the No. 26-ranked player in the world. “You never know what’s going to happen on that hole.”
No. 18 is a threatening par 4, 467 yard gauntlet, with a “monstrous” water hazard running up the entire left side (some might recall that Sir Nick Faldo baptized his tee shot in 1995), and a glutinous sprawl of palm trees sitting in deep, wiry Bermuda rough on the right side (flyers and knucklers from these parts).
Players fortunate to be lying unscathed in the fairway should wait to count their blessings though. On approach they will fire into a severely sloped green, with wayward shots finding miscreant water (still) on the left, and an ungenerous host of bunkers on the right.
“Tough tee shot, tough second shot, take your four and run, said the No. 15-ranked player in the world, Graeme McDowell.
Yeah, good luck with that. It’s right out of Dante’s Inferno, the PGA Tour’s version of the “Ninth Circle of Hell” (Treachery).
Never Tell Me The Odds
RORY MCILROY (6/1). Can lighting strike twice? McIlroy is the frontrunner to be the first back-to-back winner, and multiple-winner on the PGA Tour this season. Yes he’s the world’s No. 1 ranked player. Yes his ability is extraordinary. But he’s also won on the PGA Tour a total of (drum-roll) three times.
McIlroy is still only an “idea”. He’s a player in gestation. His potential not yet realized in any outward form. And it wasn’t so long ago McIlroy was being called the new Sergio Garcia: emphatically talented, prodigiously whiny, and extremely immature (recall McIlroy lamenting the British Open weather in 2011).
I’m not saying McIlroy is overrated, or that he won’t prosper for many years. He has abundant and uncommon talent, no question. And he is currently playing better than anyone on tour.
But I am saying the young Irishman has the same number of major wins as guys named Vic Ghezzi, Mungo Park, and Dow Finsterwald. Let McIlroy win a few more times before he’s crowned greatest player in the game today.
TIGER WOODS (7/1). Tiger has clawed his way back to No. 16 in the World Golf Rankings. He’s a six-time WGC winner, including one victory at Doral. And he’s never finished outside the top 10 at the WGC-Cadillac Championships.
However what might be most important, is what Tiger’s final-round 62 last week at The Honda Classic meant. It was the best final round of his career.
No one’s asking “What’s wrong with Woods?” anymore. A charging Tiger with birdie-eagle finish on No. 17 and No. 18 at the Honda put everyone on notice that he’s still very dangerous. And it’s no longer a matter of process (Tiger often referring to his comeback many times as a process), but a matter of time.
And don’t think Tiger didn’t hear what McIloy said when asked about a Woods-McIlroy rivalry? “I think it’s more the media that build up the rivalries more than anyone else.” McIlroy said. “In golf, you can have a rival if you want, but at the end of the day, your biggest rival is the golf course. You have to beat that,” he said.
We saw what happened last week when reporter Alex Miceli made Tiger mad. You mess with the Tiger; you get the teeth (something like that). A Woods-McIlroy final grouping on Sunday is very possible. And very intriguing.
PHIL MICKELSON (12/1). His days are numbered. He’s too old. Diminishing skills. He’s playing with a debilitating injury.
You remember those yahoos don’t you? Heck, you might have even been one of the howling naysayers. It’s ok, you weren’t alone.
Well after winning the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, and nearly winning the Northern Trust Open after forcing a playoff with a flabbergasting putt on No. 18, you now know that his days aren’t numbers, right?
And with Tiger joining Mickelson in the field for the first time since Pebble, “Lefty” gets an opportunity to wax Woods. Again.
LEE WESTWOOD (14/1). Westwood has to be the PGA Tour’s version of Rodney Dangerfield. How else do you explain going out Sunday at Honda, shooting a final round 63, and barely getting mentioned on Monday?
Yes it was the Rory-Tiger Show last week. But we’re talking about a final round 63. We’re talking about the No. 3 player in the world. We’re talking about his best final round score in America. And no one made a peep in the mainstream media. No one said a word about it.
So I’m putting Westwood in the top four on principle alone. Westwood’s two fourth-place finishes in two PGA Tour events entered this year (WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship and Honda) also signals his readiness to take on the TPC Blue Monster.
Of course he could always just bounce his tee shot down a spectator’s sweater again (like he did on the par 5, No. 13 at Northern Trust) to get noticed. But it’d probably be easier if he just wins the WGC-Cadillac Championship.
The Super Sleepers
LUKE DONALD (25/1). Last year’s “Donald Double” (finishing on top of the money list on both the PGA and European Tours) was unprecedented. And the PGA Tour’s reigning Player of the Year finished inside the top 10 a staggering 20 times in 26 events entered last year
But Donald, who spent 40 weeks at No. 1 in the World Golf Rankings before losing his spot to McIlroy last week, really hasn’t been in the mix yet in 2012 (T-33 at WGC-Accenture, T-56 at Northern Trust).
A T-6 finish last year at TPC Blue Monster bodes well for Donald. However he’ll need to find his touch around the greens that made him the world’s best golfer in 2011 (fifth best on tour last year in sand saves, compared to No. 168 this year; and No. 41 last year in GIR, but outside the top 150 this year).
MATT KUCHAR (30/1). In 2010 Kuchar finished T-3 at TPC Blue Monster. In 2011 he finished T-5. Kuchar likes Doral, no two ways about it.
And his T-5 finish this year at WGC-Accenture showed he’s currently in a good place with his game. Don’t be surprised to see the World No. 14 pick up his fourth career win on the PGA Tour this week.
HUNTER MAHAN (30/1). Mahan defeated McIlroy two-and-one at WGC-Accenture two weeks ago, jumping up to No. 10 in the world with his victory. And a win Sunday at Doral gives him the opportunity to become only the third player to win three or more WGC events (Woods and Geoff Ogilvy).
Mahan’s ball striking has been sharp in 2012. He’s No. 21 in GIR. But at T-87 in driving distance, he’ll be at a marked disadvantage from the rest of the field on the long fairways of TPC Blue Monster.
Boulevard of Broken Dreams
DUSTIN JOHNSON (25/1). I hate to put Johnson in this group, but given his talent and near misses, he remains one of the biggest disappointments on tour. To his credit he did finish well (T-5 at Pebble, and T-4 at Northern Trust), and has three top 10 finishes this year.
But he just seems to have a knack for taking holes off, and falters when it matters most. He had the 54-hole lead last year here at the TPC Blue Monster, but I haven’t seen anything this year to suggest he’ll avoid breaking down at some point and contend at Doral.
NICK WATNEY (25/1). I probably shouldn’t put Watney in this group; clearly he’s the defending champion, and has a runner-up finish here to boot. He played well knocking out Woods at the WGC-Accenture, before being eliminated by Westwood the following round.
Like Donald, he’s been somewhat slow to start the season, at least by Watney’s own standards. He’s grabbed one top 10 finish in his five events played in 2012. But every tournament he’s had trouble scoring (he’s ranked 114th in scoring with a 71.33 average). And I don’t see him turning it on at Doral.
Perfect Pairings
McIlroy, Donald, Westwood
With the top 24 players being grouped by their place in the Official World Golf Rankings, this is unquestionably the spotlight pairing. No. 1 McIlroy, No. 2 Donald, and No. 3 Westwood also are the last three men to hold the No. 1 ranking in the world. When the sun falls over Doral on Sunday evening, any of them could be No 1.
And don’t discount the little feud between McIlroy and Westwood that kindled late last year when McIlroy fired mutual agent Chubby Chandler. When Westwood learned about the dismissal, he publicly tweeted “bizarre decision” to McIlroy. That of course led the mercurial McIlroy to “unfollow” Westwood on twitter.
Woods, Sergio Garcia, Watney
Woods is third in scoring average on tour, and fifth in driving accuracy. Watney is No. 131 in driving distance at 283.6 yards, and No. 18 in GIR at 70.14 percent. Sergio Garcia looks to build on the momentum he gained at Northern Trust, when he shot seven-under on Sunday, jumping 45 spots up the leader board.
Mickelson, Mahan, Adam Scott
Mickelson is the PGA Tour Player of the Month. Mahan is ranked No. 10 in the world, and No. 10 in scoring average. Adam Scott is ranked No. 11 in the world.
Alvaro Quiros, Kyle Stanley, Gary Woodland
Big bombers in this group; and that gives them a distinct advantage at Doral. Quiros averages 315.9 yards on the European Tour. Stanley, winner of the 2012 Waste Management Phoenix Open, is second on PGA Tour in driving distance averaging 307.6 yards (behind only Bubba Watson). And Woodland is ranked No. 23 in driving distance at 298.9 yards.
Justin Rose, Bubba Watson, Mark Wilson,
Rose was in contention one shot back of McIlroy last week at Honda until he put one in the drink at No. 15. Wilson is already a winner this year at the WGC-Accenture, and has played well all season with two top 10 finishes. And there’s talk Bubba might incorporate a “Lebron James’ chalk toss” into his pre-shot routine. “You’re welcome!”
Notes:
Television Coverage:
Thursday 2 – 6 p.m. EST, Golf Channel.
Friday 2 – 6 p.m. EST, Golf Channel.
Saturday 12 – 2 p.m. EST, Golf Channel; 2 – 6 p.m. EST, NBC.
Sunday 1 – 3 p.m. EST, Golf Channel; 3 – 7 p.m. EST, NBC.
Radio Coverage:
SiriusXM Satellite Radio
Thursday – Saturday, 12 – 6 p.m. EST.
Sunday, 1 – 7 p.m. EST.
Odds:
Odds provided by Las Vegas PGA Tour Golf Betting Odds.
Click here for more discussion in the “Tour Talk” forum.
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Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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