News
A familiar face back on top at Pebble, and some new ones too
By Pete Pappas
GolfWRX Staff Writer
No it’s not Tiger Woods atop the 2012 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am leader board. But Tiger is certainly prowling at four-under, and could easily have been closer than the five shots back he is now.
Young phenom and two time tour winner Danny Lee and 40-year old upstart Charlie Wi both finished at nine-under par and tied for first.
Lee’s bogey free round was highlighted by five birdies, and two eagles at No. 2 and No. 11 on the Pebble Beach course. While Wi established a new course record at the Monterey Peninsula course also with a bogey free round, carding a 61 which included one eagle and seven birdies.
But the two were not at the top without company. Three’s company to be exact.
Charging down the stretch with birdies on No. 14, No. 15, and No. 18, two-time defending champion at the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Dustin Johnson also joined Lee and Wi for a three way share of the lead at days end.
And if it’s true as Shirley Bassey sings in the movie All About Mary, “I’ve seen it before, and I’ll see it again. It’s all just a little bit of history repeating,” then the 27 year-old American Johnson might just be entering the hallowed grounds of Pebble Beach record book lore, joining Jack Nicklaus, Johhny Miller, and Phil Mickelson, as the only other three-time winners of this event.
Maybe there’ll also be a Camaron Diaz sighting sometime this weekend. Back in 2011 Tiger recruited Diaz to help him get a new girlfriend. No one really knows how that turned out however, or at least no one wants to talk about it. OK, so we probably won’t see Diaz this weekend, at least not anywhere near Tiger.
History is on Johnson’s side if you look at the last two times he won here in 2009 and 2010. In both years, he was the first day leader and played the Pebble Beach course. Yesterday, he was the first round leader, and played the Pebble Beach course.
I know, I know. It’s just the first day. Probably just meaningless coincidence, right? Well I wouldn’t bet against him.
Johnson was calm and collected, even spectacular at times, showing resiliency and consistency playing the first six holes at six-under, and the last five holes at three-under. And Johnson was in great spirits after the round, tweeting, “Gotta feel good about that round!!! Love it here and my group was a blast!!”
Johnson always likes playing Pebble Beach, and is always comfortable playing here (don’t we all have an aberrational 82 final round meltdown once or twice in our life?) The course rewards his tremendous length and accuracy, evidenced by him being tied for second in driving accuracy, and averaging just under 300 yards per drive Thursday.
On top of that Johnson is putting absolutely lights out. In addition to hitting 13 of 14 fairways, and 14 of 18 greens, he took just 24 putts Thursday (ranking him second in the field). And some of those putts were legitimate dead eye center rolls. The only thing that could have made Johnson’s putts better (or worse depending who you ask) would have been Bill Murray’s Cinderella Man screaming “It’s in the hole!”
On No. 6 Johnson held the line on a tricky 30-foot eagle, on No. 15 he snuck in a very slippery putt to maintain his momentum on the backside. And on No. 18 he came inside of one-inch to making a putt from a semi-buried lie in the fringe off the green that would have been his third eagle of the round, but settled for a tap in birdie to close his scoring.
Johnson will be there in contention on Sunday. But you know what? So will Tiger Woods.
The big story remains, and will remain well beyond this tournament, Tiger Woods. For better or worse, Tiger has become the most over-analyzed, over-scrutinized, over-examined athlete not just on the PGA Tour, but in any professional sport.
Golf writers from every corner of every office down every hallway continue to talk and whisper about Tiger’s fading mystique, or the mysterious process he and coach Sean Foley often refer to, or about Tiger’s self assurance and confidence (or lack there of) Ad Nauseum.
In doing so however, they’re missing out on some pretty good golf.
On Thursday Tiger hit 12 of 14 fairways, 13 of 18 greens, and had 29 total putts. A dominating performance? Of course not. One to keep you in contention to win on Sunday? Absolutely.
Tiger is going to have to win differently from this moment on. And a win at Pebble would do more to teach him how he must win as he goes forward, than it will answer those anachronistic questions about the old Tiger aura, or the old Tiger dominance. Those questions are no longer relevant. There is no Tiger aura, no Tiger dominance. And there will never be a return to the way it was.
Tiger is no longer untouchable, unflawed. Chinks in his amour have been exposed.
But he still has more skill than any golfer on tour, any given tournament. He still has a mental toughness that will pull him through hard times, though now he will need to pull through by accepting these hard times as defeats where previously he rose above them and turned into victories.
The Tiger we see now is the Tiger we’re going to see for the next ten years. One who shows glimpses of greatness, like his approach on No. 10, and No. 11 to start his round.
But also one who will look out of place, and confused, and make very poor shots that he will not be able to recover from. Like his approach shot into No. 4 where he took an incredible six practice swings, and yet another using just his arm, before sailing the green into a natural dune, and limping out with a bogey five.
Tiger will win again, and win often. But he won’t resemble the Tiger who dominated every Sunday, or whose aura was so mysterious and intimidating that it gave him an absolute and complete advantage even before he stuck his tee in the ground on Sunday afternoon.
Those days are gone. Long gone. But that’s OK. And I think Tiger is beginning to get it. After the round on Thursday Tiger said, “I wasn’t very good with my irons today. I left a few shots out there that’s for sure. And the rest of the guys are going pretty low, tearing this place apart.”
This was no admission of defeat by any stretch. Rather, it was a humble, balanced Tiger maybe for one of the first times in recent memory, being true to himself, being real about what he can and can’t do, and thinking about ways to do other things that will still let him win tournaments.
Perhaps, even as early as this week at Pebble. And call me a dreamer, but I’m anticipating a Tiger Woods-Duston Johnson pairing on Sunday, the likes of which will be a showdown we have not seen in a long, long time. And ironically, will probably be analyzed, examined, and scrutinized for time and memorial.
And in some respects, when Tiger begins to win again, and he will, these wins might be the most magical of his career. Because he won’t be expected, or able to dominate like he once did. His aura won’t return like it once was. Any given tournament, he may show glimpses of his old self, just not as often, not as regularly, not for four rounds. But he’ll find a new way to win. And he’ll still be Tiger. And that should be enough more times than not to still be the most talented player in the field. He’ll just be a different Tiger.
In other notable tournament news, Ken Duke, who needed a late season victory last year just to ensure he’d be on the PGA Tour this year, recorded six birdies and an eagle en route to setting the Pebble Beach course record on the back nine, shooting a 28, 8-under par.
Nick Watney remains in the hunt with a seven-under, three off the lead, after making small adjustments to his grip at the advice of his coach, Butch Harmon. Watney moved to a weaker grip to prevent blocking shots which has been a problem for him this year.
Round 2 coverage resumes tomorrow, Friday at 12:00 p.m. PST 5:30 p.m. PST on the Golf Channel.
Click here for more discussion in the forums.
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News
Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall
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Tour Photo Galleries
Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.
We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.
Check out links to all our photos below.
General Albums
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Monday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #1
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #2
- 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson – Tuesday #3
WITB Albums
- Pierceson Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kris Kim – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- David Nyfjall – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Adrien Dumont de Chassart – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Jarred Jetter – North Texas PGA Section Champ – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Richy Werenski – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Wesley Bryan – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Parker Coody – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Peter Kuest – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Blaine Hale, Jr. – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Kelly Kraft – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Rico Hoey – WITB – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Pullout Albums
- Adam Scott’s 2 new custom L.A.B. Golf putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Scotty Cameron putters – 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
- Ben Griffin playing Maxfli golf ball
See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.
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News
Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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