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The most overrated ball striker in the game

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It is quite common to see athletes live off a certain reputation that is far from reality. While I am as big of a fan of Derek Jeter as anybody, his reputation provided him with Golden Glove awards that he was not worthy of. Michael Jordan’s defense became a liability in the latter years of his career, and it seems like anytime Bill Belichick uses a new scheme, he is credited as the inventor of that scheme.

On the PGA Tour, misconceptions about the abilities of certain golfers may be more prevalent. It surprises me that there are often so many misconceptions in a sport like golf — a game that has far fewer moving parts than a team sport. But I think a lot of these misconceptions have to do with people struggling to accurately quantify different parts of the game. There is also such a large discrepancy between a PGA Tour player and an amateur golfer that amateurs tend to overestimate the abilities of touring pros when they see them play in person — they think pros are incredible at every facet of the game simply because they are better than anybody they have seen before.

One of the myths I labeled in 2012 Pro Golf Synopsis as the “Mayfair Effect.” It occurs when a player has such an unorthodox swing or putting stroke that it is assumed that the player must be a good ball striker or putter because they are on Tour with that unorthodox motion. I called it the “Mayfair Effect” because of Billy Mayfair’s strange putting stroke. Because of its uniqueness, many golf fans and reporters labeled him as a great putter. The reality is that Mayfair was a very good ball striker who was held back by his struggles with the flat stick.

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Perhaps the biggest myth on Tour today is the prowess of Sergio Garcia’s ball striking and his ineptness with the putter. No other player today quite gets the accolades of being the best ball striker of our generation like Garcia does.

Tiger gets praise for his ball striking, and the statistics show that Tiger is indeed an elite iron player. He just tends to struggle with his driver, and we acknowledge this. However, from what we hear about Garcia’s ball striking abilities, we would think he was the second coming of Ben Hogan. But the stats show this to be far from the truth.

Screen Shot 2013-05-30 at 9.32.50 AM

Sergio has been a very average driver of the ball for the past three years on Tour. As far as his Zone play goes, the Safe Zone (shots from 125 to 175 yards) is his best part of his game, but his performance from that distance is just above average. And the Zone that matters the most on Tour is the Danger Zone (shots from 175 to 225 yards), which outside of 2011 he has been downright mediocre.

This does the raise the question of “How is Sergio still successful on Tour?” Well, he is a much better putter and short-game player than he is given credit for.

Screen Shot 2013-05-30 at 9.32.55 AM

At one point in his career, Garcia was an elite ball striker on Tour and one of the Tour’s best putters. While those days appear to be behind him, he has become a much better putter and short-game player than most people realize, which has been a key for him in 2013.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

37 Comments

37 Comments

  1. paul

    Jun 25, 2013 at 10:09 am

    for pure ball striking i think its hard to go past Adam Scott,he swings it awesome and doesn’t seem to miss fairways with the driver and gets it out there.also Bill Haas is underrated in my opinion hits it good but doesnt get the recognition he deserves.im from australia and will also say that i think geoff ogilvy is overrated he really struggles now

  2. Charles

    Jun 11, 2013 at 1:24 am

    Whatever the stats say, I’ll never forget being at Torrey South some years ago and watching Sergio make the green on his second shot on the 13th, from the right fairway bunker – with an iron of some kind. I watched with binoculars from behind the back bunker. A stupendous shot.

  3. Goldchips

    Jun 10, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    Good point about people’s reps preceding them. I do, however, believe that Garcia is one of the best ball strikers on tour for this reason. Stats don’t incorporate pictures, they are just numbers. Seeing Sergio work the ball in any direction (high, low, left, right) and the crispness and sound in which he hits the ball, puts him on another level. Stats aside, the dude can hit the ball better than anyone on tour, excluding Woods probably.

  4. tim roncone

    Jun 6, 2013 at 2:48 pm

    great article. all players have thei ups and downs. i personally feel that srtgio is a good player but a hothead who cant control himself. to be honest the whole time he and tiger went at it you could see sergio trying to find that comment that would bring him on top in the battle. and if i remember correctly… what happened in that final round…. oh yea he completely came off the hinges and was no where near taking the top spot. and yes i hate to say it. but sergio is a racist. theres no excuse for making a comment of that caliber. he said it so stop trying to find a viable excuse for his actions as a fan.

  5. stephenf

    Jun 6, 2013 at 2:18 pm

    LOVE both the idea of this analysis and its execution here in this article. So, so many misconceptions based on selective perception, the way announcers talk about a player, etc. “He’ll be disappointed with that one,” they say about the guy who hit the wedge to 14 feet, except that it turns out that’s two or three feet inside the guy’s average. “He can shoot a 63 anytime he really needs to.” “He’s a great short putter” (and then when he misses, “Oh, gosh, now that’s not what you’d expect from him”). And so on.

    As for Sergio’s improvements in the short game, well…necessity really is the mother of invention.

    • Save Par From Afar

      Jun 22, 2013 at 7:07 pm

      So, so many misconceptions based on selective perception, the way announcers talk about a player, etc. “He’ll be disappointed with that one,” they say about the guy who hit the wedge to 14 feet, except that it turns out that’s two or three feet inside the guy’s average. “He can shoot a 63 anytime he really needs to.” “He’s a great short putter” (and then when he misses, “Oh, gosh, now that’s not what you’d expect from him”). And so on.

      – Actually no thats just Johnny Miller. He’s an absolute buffoon and everyone involved with golf is tired of his act. At the US Open every single bad shot made by even the greats including Ernie Els and Luke Donald he would relentlessly say “Hes feeling the pressure now, that’s ‘US Open nerves’ right there”. Ernie Els and Luke Donald? How about it’s 1 of the hardest courses and setups in the ENTIRE WORLD and not a single player finished the tournament under par. Smarten up johnny, your announcing career is on the 18th hole…. and you certainly won’t be finishing with an enviable score you buffoon.

  6. Ron

    Jun 6, 2013 at 2:01 pm

    Ok stinks is abit harsh, it’s well written and it is informative, just think Sergio seems to be villain of the moment,

  7. Dane

    Jun 6, 2013 at 12:42 pm

    I don’t see this as a bash to Sergio, I thought it was very informative. Thanks Rich! Andy hit it on the head! I think most of us in the states would agree with that paragraph.

  8. viper

    Jun 6, 2013 at 11:00 am

    At least Sergio is not a cheater lol

  9. Ron

    Jun 5, 2013 at 1:23 pm

    This article stinks, why choose now to kick Sergio? There are dozens of overrated players, you might as well call this article Sergio is a racist and his ball striking is rubbish so there!

  10. DT

    Jun 3, 2013 at 6:00 pm

    Great article. I’d like to see how Luke holds up in this. If anyone gets the hype crown, it’s him. I think it’s probably well deserved, but again, I haven’t seen the numbers.

    Care to compare him to Sergio?

  11. Scott

    Jun 2, 2013 at 7:30 pm

    Strange article?! ….nobody in Europe considers Sergio to be a top ball striker ?Westwood, Hanson or Rory are far more impressive, but lets face it, only one number counts when it comes to stats… and that’s the one on the card?!

    • Andy

      Jun 3, 2013 at 9:20 am

      Well I’m from England and I definitely consider him a great ball striker.

      As a general rule we (over on this side of the pond) consider Sergio to be :-

      1) Incredibly volatile (probably making any data almost useless).
      2) A magician around the greens. Something that most of the Spanish golfer seem to share and a legend founded by Seve and Oly.
      3) A superb Iron player.
      4) In the Wilderness years he had a very bad rep with the putter.

      Lee has the reputation with the Driver.
      Luke has the incredible short game / putter halo.
      Rory has the whole game. But he’s also very young and just been given unlimited money and a hot girlfriend. He’s not surprisingly more than slightly distracted from golf, but finds that shooting a bad first 2 days means more time on the private jet / in Monaco with the cash and the hot girlfriend !

  12. Gary

    Jun 1, 2013 at 8:43 pm

    The past three years is a very poor representation of a career that to date spans about 13 years. Sergio has improved his putting over the past 3-4 years at a cost to his long game. I don’t know what the stats say, but my recollection certainly is that.

  13. Archshaw

    Jun 1, 2013 at 8:21 pm

    Jordan’s defense a liability?…what are you smoking. He was great in his prime and just average defensively at the end..but never a liability.

  14. c

    Jun 1, 2013 at 11:03 am

    His ball striking has regressed for sure but he was at one time one of the best ball strikers on tour. When you hit more greens you also end up putting from further away which makes your putting stats look worse. In contrast when you miss more greens you can chip close which makes your putting stats look better.

    2004 he was 4th in GIR – 187 in strokes gained putting
    2005 he was 1st in GIR – 164 in strokes gained putting
    2006 he was 37th in GIR – 132 in strokes gained putting
    2008 he was 38th in GIR – 121 in strokes gained putting
    2012 he was 98th in GIR – 27 in strokes gained putting

  15. billy bob

    May 31, 2013 at 9:59 pm

    Surely Harrington has to be considered more successful than Sergio????

  16. Nick

    May 31, 2013 at 12:28 pm

    Sergio is a donkey. Nothing more…nothing less. Forever to be classified as unfulfilled hype.

    • stephenf

      Jun 6, 2013 at 2:19 pm

      He’s made millions of dollars and won tournaments as one of the approximately 125 best players on the planet at his game. What are you one of the best in the world at, donkey?

  17. Tommy P

    May 30, 2013 at 10:10 pm

    You are the man Rich, always enjoy your articles!

  18. John Wunder

    May 30, 2013 at 8:08 pm

    Great write up Rich. Im a Sergio fan, have been for years but I have to agree with on this one. He’s not the same guy. Always enjoy your stuff man, keep it up.

  19. Mary

    May 30, 2013 at 6:57 pm

    Seems to be fully of haters this site
    No body deserves to be forgived? pharisees

    Worst of all the journalists just to gain some money, what kind of headline is this??? with Sergio’s pic to use all the controversy…
    Pathetic

  20. WedgeGuru

    May 30, 2013 at 1:55 pm

    I have often wondered about this very same claim about Sergio. Thanks for clearing that up with some good old fashioned data 🙂

  21. James

    May 30, 2013 at 1:47 pm

    tiger is the best player of all time end of discussion

    • Forsbrand

      Jun 8, 2013 at 3:04 pm

      Didn’t realise tiger had won 19 majors? Because that’s what he needs to win before he can be judged best player of all time! Period

  22. Mike

    May 30, 2013 at 11:37 am

    Probably he is the best international player of the last 10 years, just Vijay or Adam Scott achieves the same high level for several years

    He is playing great this year, wish he’ll play great at the US Open and the PGA, the last round with him and Tiger matched could be memorable!

    • Will

      May 30, 2013 at 1:36 pm

      Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Rory all more successful than Sergio and most American players for that matter!

      • DaddyDaddy

        May 30, 2013 at 6:51 pm

        No they don’t, Lee Westwood (great person and golfer) is 7 years older and has less wins on the PGA Tour than Sergio and more or less the same worldwide.
        Luke Donald is 4 years older and has less wins on PGA Tour and worlwide than Sergio.
        Both were not in the top level for several years as Sergio did.

        To be fair Rory seems to be clarily better tan him.

        Come on people, we have to be honest, you don’t like him? ok, but it’s out of doubt that he is one of the best players of the world since he turned pro

      • Forsbrand

        May 31, 2013 at 6:28 pm

        Listen, there’s guys that are equipment reps that hit it great distances and strike it better than european and us tour players, and they all share the same problem…..they can’t score. It doesn’t matter how well you strike it, or how good your swing looks, it’s all about getting it in the hole and the job done. Furyk, azinger, two gloves, all guys with swings you wouldn’t copy, but fantastic results all the same. Wasn’t tom partner the guy in the 90s that everyone labelled the best swinger out there? How many tournaments did he win though?

    • Billy Cunningham

      Jun 1, 2013 at 12:51 pm

      I assume English is not your first language?

      “But the true is that comparing to Tiger every pro lose!”

  23. John

    May 30, 2013 at 11:32 am

    Sergio is an amazing player, no doubt about it

  24. JK

    May 30, 2013 at 10:38 am

    Sergio would be a much better striker if Tiger Woods ever stopped pulling clubs out of his bag!

    • Mike

      May 30, 2013 at 11:39 am

      LoL!
      But the true is that comparing to Tiger every pro lose!

      • Lee

        Jun 22, 2013 at 1:52 pm

        Not really. A lot better ball strikers out there than tiger. Player, no. Ball striker, yes.

  25. Philip Nielsen

    May 30, 2013 at 10:32 am

    Great information. I do hear it all the time about how Sergio is an amazing striker lol. Stats show otherwise.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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