The PGA Tour will step aside this week to allow the Paris Olympics take center stage.

The Paris Olympics will play host to 60 golfers this week and will be a no-cut event. The tournament is a 72-hole stroke play tournament played at the Le Golf National. Some notable golfers making the trip to Paris include Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama and Tom Kim.

Golf returned to the Summer Olympics in 2016 after a 112-year absence where Justin Rose won the Gold in Rio. In 2020, Xander Schauffele won the Gold in Japan. 

Le Golf National is a par 71 measuring 7,247 yards that played host to the 2018 Ryder Cup where the Europeans beat the United States 17.5-10.5. The course has also hosted the Open de France on the DP World Tour and is the oldest National Open in Continental Europe. Le Golf National features POA/Bentgrass greens. It was designed by Robert von Hagge and is a “Florida style” design. 

Past Winners at Le Golf National (Open De France)

• 2023: Ryo Hisatsune (-14)
• 2022: Guido Migliozzi (-16)
• 2019: Nicolas Colsaerts (-12)
• 2018: Alex Noren (-7)
• 2017: Tommy Fleetwood (-12)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Le Golf National

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Le Golf National to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Good Drive Percentage

Le Golf National has tight fairways and plenty of hazards. The course cannot be overpowered and will favor accurate drivers of the golf ball who can avoid trouble off the tee. 

Good Drive Percentage over Past 36 Rounds: 

1. Collin Morikawa (87.8%)
2. Sepp Straka (86.7%)
3. Scottie Scheffler (86%)
4. Tommy Fleetwood (85%)
5. Abraham Ancer (84.8%)

Strokes Gained: Approach

The course has thick rough and tricky green complexes. Players must be dialed in with their approach shots if they want to leave Paris with a medal. 

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (minimum 16):

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.72)
2. Xander Schauffele (+1.19)
3. Mito Pereira (+0.97)
4. Collin Morikawa (+0.89)
5. Kevin Yu (+0.72)

Strokes Gained: OTT on “Less than Driver” Courses

In the lead-up to the 2018 Ryder Cup, Justin Thomas played in the Open De France at Le Golf National. Speaking to the media, JT shared that he only hit driver four times through his four rounds at the course. If players are to be successful this week, they’ll have to do a lot of their damage with less than driver off the tee. 

Strokes Gained: OTT on “Less than Driver” Courses over Past 24 rounds:

1. Viktor Hovland (+0.95)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+.90)
3. Ludvig Aberg (+.82)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (+.82)
5. Collin Morikawa (+.73)

4. Strokes Gained: Putting (POA/Bentgrass)

Players will have to hole plenty of putts this week at Le Golf National. The best putters reigned supreme at the 2018 Ryder Cup. 

Strokes Gained Putting (POA/Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Xander Schauffele (+1.11)
2. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.02)
3. Wyndham Clark (+0.76) 
4. Tommy Fleetwood (+0.56)
5. Rory McIlroy (+0.55)

Strokes Gained: Around The Green

The greens will be undulating at Le Golf National and protected by bunkers. The course is difficult, and players will inevitably miss some green and be forced to make some tricky up-and-downs. 

Strokes Gained: Around the Greens Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+0.80)
2. Nick Taylor (+0.66)
3. Rory McIlroy (+0.62)
4. C.T. Pan (+0.57)
5. Christiaan Bezeuidenhout (+0.51)

The Paris Olympics Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — Good Drive (28%), SG: Approach (28%), Strokes Gained: ARG (15%), Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass (15%), and Strokes Gained: Total Less than Driver (14%).

1. Collin Morikawa
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Xander Schauffele
4. Tom Kim
5. Sepp Straka
6. Corey Conners
7. Tommy Fleetwood
8. Viktor Hovland
9. Alex Noren
10. Ludvig Aberg

Paris Olympics Picks

Collin Morikawa +1200 (FanDuel)

Le Golf National is a perfect golf course for Collin Morikawa. What the American lacks in distance off the tee he makes up for in accuracy, which is the key to playing well at this tight track.

In the field, Morikawa ranks 1st in Good Drive Percentage, 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on less than driver courses. The 27-year-old didn’t play in the 2018 Ryder Cup, but the American’s surely could have used a player like Morikawa in France.

Morikawa has played in The Olympics before, finishing in a tie for 3rd place but losing out on the bronze medal after a seven-man playoff. The Olympic experience should be an advantage for Collin heading into the week.

It’s been a frustrating 2024 for Morikawa, who’s been one of the best players on the PGA Tour but is yet to register a win during the calendar year. Despite the lack of wins, he’s been excellent in the big events. He finished T3 at The Masters, T4 at the PGA Championship, 2nd at The Memorial Tournament, T14 at the U.S. Open and T16 at The Open Championship.

Morikawa’s season review will drastically change if he’s able to bring an Olympic gold medal back for the United States, which I believe he will.

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

Tommy Fleetwood will be returning to the stage where his star arguably shined the brightest over the course of his career. The Englishman was electric at the 2018 Ryder Cup, making up half of the team dubbed “Moliwood” and scoring four points for the European team in a 17.5-10.5 route.

In addition to the brilliant Ryder Cup performance at Le Golf National, Fleetwood won the Open De France at the course back in 2017. He thrives on courses where driving accuracy is at a premium and ranks 4th in the field in Good Drive Percentage over his last 24 rounds. He loves to putt on Bent/POA greens, ranking 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on the surface. Tommy also has Olympic golf experience, as he finished in a tie for 16th at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

It’s no secret that Tommy hasn’t won on the PGA Tour, so it would be fitting if the biggest win of his career came this week in an event that would still leave questions as to whether can win in the United States.

Alex Noren +4000 (DraftKings)

Alex Noren has had one of, if not the, most consistent seasons of his career in 2024. The Swede has finished in the top-25 in twelve of his eighteen starts this year, including three of those in the top ten.

Noren played in the 2020 Olympics, finishing in a tie for 16th and shooting three rounds in the 60’s. He also was a member of the 2018 Ryder Cup winning European team, going 2-1 in his three matches, including a singles victory over Bryson DeChambeau.

The 41-year-old is no stranger to Le Golf National. He’s played in the Open De France at the course often and has finished in the top-20 of the event in five of his last six trips to the course, including a victory in 2018.

In the field, Noren ranks 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 11th in Good Drive Percentage. He’s also a fantastic putter on Bent/POA greens, ranking 6th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on the surface.

Noren should be coming into the event feeling confident after a T13 finish at The Open where he ranked 5th in the field in Driving Accuracy. An Olympic Gold medal would be a fitting way for Noren to validate his 2024 season.