19th Hole
Vincenzi’s Fortinet Championship betting preview: California native ready for breakthrough win in Napa
After a three-week break, the 2022-23 PGA TOUR season kicks off in Napa Valley at the Silverado Resort and Spa to play the Fortinet Championship.
Prior to 2021, the event was called the Safeway Open, but the tournament sponsor changed to Fortinet with contract that will last for three more seasons. Although the name has changed multiple times, Silverado’s North Course has been featured on the PGA TOUR since 1968.
The course is a par 72, measuring at 7,166 yards. Silverado features Poa annua greens that can be tricky, especially as the surface becomes bumpier in the afternoon. The tree-lined fairways aren’t easy to hit, but the rough shouldn’t be exceedingly penal. Shorter hitters are in play on this relatively short course, and accuracy will be at a premium.
There will be a re-routing at Silverado for this year’s Fortinet Championship. Ten holes will be played in a different order. Holes 1-7 and 18 will remain as in year’s past. The new finishing stretch – No. 14 (par 4), No. 15 (par 5), No. 16 (par 4), No. 17 (par 3) and No. 18 (par 5). The new 17th was previously the 11th, which is the signature hole on the course.
The field will consist of 155 players. Being the swing season, the field for this event is usually relatively weak. However, there are some intriguing names in the field including Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Sahith Theegala, Joel Dahmen, and Kevin Kisner.
Past Winners
- 2022: Max Homa (-22)
- 2021: Max Homa (-19)
- 2020: Stewart Cink (-21)
- 2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
- 2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
- 2017: Brendan Steele -15
- 2016: Brendan Steele -18
Let’s take a look at several key metrics for Silverado to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Historically, one of the North Course’s defenses will be tightly tucked pin placement, so effective shot-shaping and a higher ball flight may be an advantage this week. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa Annua greens.
Strokes Gained: Approach past 24 rounds:
- Chez Reavie (+24.7)
- Sam Ryder (+20.0)
- Mark Hubbard (+17.8)
- Kevin Streelman (+18.3)
- Doug Ghim (+17.1)
Good Drives Gained
Hitting fairways in regulation at Silverado is more difficult than TOUR average, as players have done so in the past at a rate of only 52.2%. While the rough isn’t extremely long here, controlling spin out of the thick grass is much more difficult than doing so from the fairway. In order to find success, players need to hit the correct level of the sloping Poa annua greens.
In 2021, the top eight players on the leaderboard all had a positive week in “Good Drives Gained. The winner, Max Homa was +3.3 in the category and Mito Pereira, who finished third, was +8.3.
In 2022, 12 of the top 13 players on the leaderboard gained in the category including the winner Max Homa (+6.0) and runner up Danny Willet (5.0).
Good Drives Gained past 24 rounds:
- Doug Ghim (+24.4)
- Matt NeSmith (+23.8)
- Russell Knox (+20.6)
- Brice Garnett (+19.9)
- Ryan Armour (+19.8)
Par 4: 400-450
There are six par 4’s at Silverado that are between 400 and 450-yards. It will be important to target players who excel at playing these holes. With the par 5s being fairly short and reachable, the par 4 scoring may prove to be the bigger difference-maker.
Par 4: 400-450 past 24 rounds:
- Beau Hossler (+14.7)
- Max Homa (+12.4)
- Garrick Higgo (+8.5)
- Justin Suh (+8.3)
- Stephan Jaeger (+8.2)
Birdie or Better: Gained
With scores at Silverado potentially approaching the 20 under par range, making plenty of birdies will be a requirement in order to contend this week.
Birdie or Better: Gained in past 24 rounds:
- Nick Hardy (+15.3)
- Scott Piercy (+15.2)
- Ryan Gerard (+14.9)
- Max Homa (+14.0)
- Peter Kuest (+13.5)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua)
Poa annua greens on the West Coast can be quite difficult for golfers to adjust to if they don’t have much experience on the surface.
Prior to the 2019 Safeway Open, Phil Mickelson talked about how the type of putting surface is a major factor:
“I think a lot of guys struggle with the Poa annua greens, which is a grass that I grew up playing, so I’m very comfortable on the greens. When you grow up and spend most of your time back east in Florida on the Bermuda, this is a very awkward surface to putt on. The color looks different — it’s hard to sometimes read. But when you’re used to it, I don’t know of much better surfaces than these right here.”
This week it is important to look for the golfers who historically excel on Poa annua.
Total Strokes Gained in category in past 24 rounds:
- Kevin Kisner (+27.7)
- Max Homa (+21.2)
- Peter Malnati (+20.5)
- Justin Suh (+18.5)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+16.0)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (25%), Good Drives Gained: (25%), Birdie or Better (20%), Par 4: 400-450 (15%), SG: Putting (Poa annua) (15%).
- Max Homa (+750)
- Doug Ghim (+5000)
- Andrew Putnam (+4000)
- Chez Reavie (+4500)
- Kevin Streelman (+5500)
- Mark Hubbard (+5000)
- Sam Ryder (+7000)
- Brendon Todd (+3500)
- Akshay Bhatia (+6000)
- Cameron Davis (+2200)
2023 Fortinet Championship Picks
Sahith Theegala +2000 (DraftKings):
Sahith Theegala is yet to break out for his maiden PGA Tour victory but is a great candidate for a player who can have a strong fall and take advantage of some weaker fields. The 26-year-old ended his season on a positive note, finishing 13th at the FedEx St. Jude and 15th at the BMW Championship.
I’ve long believed that Theegala’s first win would come on the West Coast. He grew up in California and was a three-time All-American at Pepperdine University, where he became the fifth player to win the Jack Nicklaus Award, Haskins Award and Ben Hogan award all in the same year (2020). Sahith made his PGA Tour debut at Silverado in 2020, where he finished in a tie for 14th. Last year, he finished 6th at the Fortinet Championship.
Theegala is very comfortable playing in California. That is perhaps most noticeable on the putting surface where he gains an average of +0.44 strokes on the field per event on POA, which is more than four times what he gains on Bermudagrass or Bentgrass. The POA greens at Silverado can get especially difficult late in the day, which is a reason why players with a background on them have had so much success at the course. In the past seven years of the event, five winners have come from California.
Theegala is pricey this week and is as close to the top of the odds board as I can remember him being, but that’s the nature of the PGA Tour fall season. It’s hard to find a spot on the schedule that Sahith will have a better chance at winning than this one.
Justin Suh +5000 (PointsBet):
Consistency has been an issue early in the career of Justin Suh, but he’s shown flashes in 2023 of what made him such a highly regarded prospect to begin with. After a few top-10 finishes at the PLAYERS Championship and the Honda Classic, Suh ended the season on a bit of a sour note, failing to finish better than 34th in his last five starts of the season.
Despite the struggles, I’m optimistic about Suh as we begin the fall swing. The 26-year-old made the trip to Crans-Montana, Valais, Switzerland to play in the Omega European Masters, and finished 24th in a decent field. More encouraging than the finish was how Suh hit the ball. He gained 5.24 strokes on approach and hit plenty of fairways.
The 2018 Pac-12 Player of the Year grew up on California golf courses. Suh was a highly decorated amateur golfer with plenty of wins on the West Coast prior to attending USC, where he was one of the best players in the country.
When he’s on, Suh is one of the best putters on Tour, and he should comfortable playing in his home state in search of his first PGA Tour victory.
Akshay Bhatia +5500 (DraftKings):
Akshay Bhatia is still just 21 years old and one of the most tantalizing prospects in the world of golf. The smooth-swinging lefty was able to obtain his first PGA Tour victory at the Barracuda Championship at Tahoe Mountain Club in Truckee, California just a few months ago. The course is just a few hours ride from Silverado and the conditions and course should be very similar.
Bhatia will have no issue making birdies in bunches at Silverado, and the rough shouldn’t be exceedingly penal if he gets loose with his driver.
Bhatia made his debut at Silverado in 2020 at just 18 years old and managed to finish 9th. Since then, he’s gained a great deal of confidence and has refined his game as a professional.
Akshay got engaged this week. He can celebrate with a victory this week at the Fortinet.
Sam Ryder +8000 (FanDuel):
Statistically, Sam Ryder jumps off the page this week. In his past four measured starts, he’s gained 4.2, 5.4, 5.2 and 5.7 strokes on approach and is completely dialed in with his irons. Despite the numbers, he hasn’t managed to crack the top-30 on the leaderboard in that stretch but this is a field that is much weaker than he faced at the end of last season.
In addition to the recent stats, Ryder played some good golf on the West Coast last year. Most notably, he finished 4th at Torrey Pines in a loaded field and also finished 20th at both the Waste Managment Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational.
If Ryder continues with his hot approach play, he should be able to contend at Silverado this week.
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19th Hole
LET pro gives detailed financial breakdown of first week on tour…and the net result may shock you
On Friday morning, Ladies European Tour player, Hannah Gregg, took to social media to share her weekly expenses playing on the LET.
Expenses of my first week on Ladies European Tour:
Flights: $2600
Work Visa: $350
Food: $377
Caddie: $0 because I have an amazing Fiancé
Hotel: $0 because @GregChalmersPGA sorted me host housing for the week! ?
Rental Car: +0 because the Tour Tee guys GAVE me their car ??…— Hannah Gregg (@hannahbggg) April 26, 2024
“Expenses of my first week on Ladies European Tour: Flights: $2600 Work Visa: $350
- Food: $377
- Caddie: $0 because I have an amazing Fiancé
- Hotel: $0 because @GregChalmersPGA sorted me host housing for the week!
- Rental Car: +0 because the Tour Tee guys GAVE me their car
- Gas: $165
- Entry Fee: $130
- Lounge Pass for caddie: $50
- Gym: $0
- Yardage book: $0
- Total expenses: $3672
Made cut, finished 54th, total earned: $1244 Factor in 35% tax on earnings. To break even, needed to finish 24th. To make money, 21st. Guess we have our goals laid out for next event!”
When factoring in Gregg’s free housing, free caddie and free rental car, it’s evident that most LET players would have to finish well inside of the top-20 to make any money.
With ridiculous amounts of money being thrown around in professional golf these days, it’s important to remember the other side of the coin as well. There are countless professionals out there who struggle to get by on their golf salary.
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- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
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54-hole golf tour deemed eligible for OWGR points…but it’s not LIV
After a seventeen-month application process, a 54-hole golf tour was deemed eligible for OWGR points.
Unfortunately, for LIV Golf and their fans, it was the Clutch Pro Tour.
After the decision, which is effective immediately, OWGR chairman Peter Dawson issued a statement.
“This is a significant milestone for golf, and OWGR is deeply encouraged by the achievement and the continued efforts in developing the sport of golf in the United Kingdom.”
“We look forward to watching the progress of the Clutch Pro Tour as it continues to play a key role in the development of players from the region,” Dawson added.
OWGR Announcement
Read more here – https://t.co/7J4bFpawqv#OWGR#OfficialWorldGolfRanking pic.twitter.com/ZfBJWCFAm8— OWGR (@OWGRltd) April 25, 2024
The Clutch Pro Tour operates in the United Kingdom and features a 36-hole cut. It also has an open qualifying school.
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- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
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19th Hole
Charlie Woods attempting to qualify for spot at 2024 U.S. Open
As first reported by Bob Harig of Sports Illustrated, Charlie Woods will be attempting to qualify for this year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.
The first stage of qualifying for this year’s tournament will be an 18-hole local event on Thursday, April 25th, in Port St. Lucie, Florida.
There will be 84 players in the field, five of which will reach the 36-hole qualifier that will take place in June.
Earlier this season, Charlie attempted to qualify for the Cognizant Classic, and struggled, shooting an 86.
If the younger Woods is able to qualify, he will tee it up in the same field as his father in a few months at one of the more historic U.S. Open venues.
More from the 19th Hole
- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
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