The 2023 PGA TOUR season will come to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta with the Tour Championship. The top 30 players left standing in the FedEx Cup standings will compete for the FedEx Cup Championship and huge $18 million payday that accompanies it.

East Lake Golf Club is a par-70 layout, measuring 7,319 yards with Bermudagrass greens. A Donald Ross design, the difficulty this week for players will be managing the fast and undulating putting surface. That said, golfers with varying skill sets can compete at East Lake.

Top 4 on the Leaderboard 

Golfer	Strokes
Scottie Scheffler	-10
Viktor Hovland	-8
Rory McIlroy	-7
Jon Rahm	-6

Past Winners at East Lake Golf Club

• 2022: Rory McIlroy* (Started at -5)
• 2021: Patrick Cantlay* (Started at -10)
• 2020: Dustin Johnson*(Started at -10)
• 2019: Rory McIlroy* (Started at -4)
• 2018: Tiger Woods
• 2017: Xander Schauffele
• 2016: Rory McIlroy
• 2015: Jordan Spieth

*Strokes-based bonus in effect.

The 2019 campaign marked the first year in which the PGA TOUR introduced a “strokes-based bonus” that gives players with the most FedEx Cup points a stroke advantage relative to the field at the beginning of the tournament.

With the added complication of the handicapped scoring system, the challenge for bettors will be identifying who can get into contention considering where they are beginning the week on the leaderboard. It will take an exceptional week from any golfer to catch the big names at the top of the leaderboard starting with a stroke advantage.

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for East Lake to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Identifying the most predictive measures for player performance this week will be crucial in determining who will claim the FedEx Cup when all is said and done.

Strokes Gained: Approach

SG: Approach is the most predictive statistic at East Lake Golf Club. Success in this event has come in the form of many different types of golfers, but one of the consistent factors is the winners are putting their approach shots close.

SG: Approach over Past 24 Rounds

1. Scottie Scheffler (+41.0) 
2. Lucas Glover (+33.8) 
3. Russell Henley (+19.5) 
4. Rory McIlroy (+18.5) 
5. Rickie Fowler (+18.3) 

Good Drives Gained

In the past, we have seen some of the best drivers of the golf ball play well at East Lake. Being a long hitter isn’t a requirement, as it’s far more important to hit fairways. The golfers who put the ball in play most often should have a strong chance to compete in Atlanta.

Good Drives Gained over Past 24 Rounds

1. Collin Morikawa (+26.3)
2. Lucas Glover (+26.3)
3. Russell Henley (+24.7) 
4. Si Woo Kim (+24.5) 
5. Tommy Fleetwood (+24.3) 

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass+Lightning) 

The difficulty of East Lake will be the speed of the greens. Donald Ross designs are known for having different levels on a sloping green, which makes finding the correct place to land the ball challenging. To be successful, golfers must excel at putting on Bermuda greens with lightning-fast speeds.

SG: Putting (Bermuda+Lightning) over Past 24 Rounds

1. Xander Schauffele (+21.2)
2. Tyrrell Hatton (+19.4)
3. Sam Burns (+16.2) 
4. Tommy Fleetwood (+10.4) 
5. Keegan Bradley (+9.0) 

Par 4: 450-500

Five of the par-4s at East Lake are between 450-500 yards. Playing these more difficult holes under par will be a good barometer of who has success in this week’s Tour Championship.

Par 4: 450-500 over Past 24 Rounds

1. Viktor Hovland (+24.3)
2. Rory McIlroy (+23.3) 
3. Xander Schauffele (+16.3) 
4. Brian Harman (+16.1) 
5. Rickie Fowler (+14.7)

Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs

We have seen the same golfers thrive on Ross designs season after season. The requirement for strategic ball placement combined with the undulating greens seems to catch the eye of specific players. It’s important to note the players in this field who play their best golf on Ross designs.

SG: Total Donald Ross Designs over Past 24 Rounds

1. Russell Henley (+44.6)
2. Taylor Moore (+41.7)
3. Xander Schauffele (+38.4)
4. Rory McIlroy (34.1)
5. Sungjae Im (+28.7)

Tour Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drives Gained (22%), SG: Putting: Bermuda Lightning (18%),Par 4: 450-500: Gained (16.5%), and SG: Donald Ross (16.5%).

1. Lucas Glover (+5000)
2. Xander Schauffele (+3500)
3. Viktor Hovland (+450)
4. Rory McIlroy (+330)
5. Russell Henley (+11000)
6. Scottie Scheffler (+150)
7. Rickie Fowler (+8000)
8. Tom Kim (+17000)
9. Tommy Fleetwood (+6000)
10. Brian Harman (+5500)

Tour Championship Best Bets

(With Starting Strokes)

Xander Schauffele (+3500, FanDuel)

Chasing down Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland and Rory McIlroy will be an extremely tall task, but if anyone can do it, it may just be Xander Schauffele.

Schauffele’s course history at East Lake rivals any golfer in the world, with the possible exception of Rory McIlroy. The 29-year-old has never finished worse than 7th (not including starting strokes) in his six trips to the golf course. He won the event in 2017, and in 2020 he had the lowest score to par of any player in the field.

It’s no surprise that Xander is incredible at East Lake considering how well he fits the course. Hitting fairways is crucial here, and he’s done that very consistently throughout in his career. Additionally in his last 24 rounds, he ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on lightning fast Bermudagrass greens, 3rd in par 4’s 450-500 yards and 3rd in Strokes Gained on Donald Ross designed courses.

Starting at -3, it will be difficult but not impossible for Schauffele to be the TOUR Championship winner on Sunday evening.

Lucas Glover (+5500, FanDuel)

I believe Lucas Glover offers tremendous value on the betting board this week. It would be a remarkable feat if the 43-year-old were able to win the TOUR Championship but starting at -5 on the leaderboard will give him a fighting chance to do so.

Glover continues to play great golf and is everything you’d want in a player at East Lake. He hits fairways as well as anyone on Tour at the moment and is tied with Collin Morikawa for first in Good Drives Gained in his past 24 rounds. His approach game continues to be excellent as he gained 4.0 strokes on approach at last week’s BMW Championship.

The two courses Glover has won on recently have a strong correlation to East Lake. Sedgefield Country Club is a Donald Ross design that is relatively short and features fast Bermudagrass greens. TPC Southwind is another course that isn’t overwhelmingly long and has similar Zoysia fairways to East Lake, which is something we don’t see all that often on the PGA Tour.

If Glover is able to end his season with a win at the TOUR Championship, it would be one of the best stories ever in golf. I wouldn’t put it past him.