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Vincenzi’s FedEx St. Jude Championship betting preview: Tommy ready to deliver the goods

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With the PGA TOUR regular season in the books, it’s time to begin the 2023 FedEx Cup playoffs.

Previously known as the St. Jude Classic and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, the event will serve as the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the second consecutive season. 

TPC Southwind is located in Memphis, Tennessee and has been a regular TOUR stop since 1989.

TPC Southwind is a par 70 measuring 7,244 yards. The course features Bermudagrass greens and rough. With 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards, there is potential trouble on almost every hole.

The FedEx St. Jude Championship will play host to the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings and will be a no-cut event.

Past Winners at TPC Southwind

The FedEx St. Jude Championship

  • Will Zalatoris (-15)

FedEx St. Jude Invitational

  • 2021: Abraham Ancer (-16)
  • 2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
  • 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)

St. Jude Classic

  • 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
  • 2017 Daniel Berger (-10)
  • 2016: Daniel Berger (-13)
  • 2015: Fabian Gomez (-15)

5 Key Stats For TPC Southwind

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Southwind to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

TPC Southwind is a relatively short course, and it isn’t necessary to be a long hitter off the tee to compete. In 2020, we saw Justin Thomas win here by gaining 7.7 strokes on approach as opposed to just 2.3 off of the tee. In 2021, Abraham Ancer gained 4.4 strokes on approach and just 1.4 off the tee. In 2022, Will Zalatoris gained 7.7 strokes on approach and just 1.8 Off the Tee. Golfers with all types of skill sets can win at the course, but there is no doubt that Strokes Gained: Approach is the most predictive statistic this week.

SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+40.0)
  2. Russell Henley (+27.6)
  3. Adam Schenk (+25.9) 
  4. Alex Smalley (+25.2)
  5. Hideki Matsuyama (+25.1)

2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking does factor in approach, but it also includes golfers who are keeping the ball in play in addition to solid approach play. While distance off the tee isn’t the most important factor this week, golfers will get into some serious trouble if they spray the ball off the tee.

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+67.5)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+37.5)
  3. Collin Morikawa (+37.4)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+36.8)
  5. Patrick Cantlay (+36.6)

3. Greens in Regulation: Gained

Green in Regulation percentage at TPC Southwind is 59.2% compared to the TOUR average of 65.8%. Golfers who are in control of the golf ball have had a lot of success at the course historically. The scoring should be relatively difficult this week, therefore fairways and greens will be the recipe to success.

GIR Gained Past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+43.9)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+38.7)
  3. Collin Morikawa (+37.5)
  4. Jon Rahm (+35.1)
  5. Alex Smalley (+28.7)

4. Par 4: 450-500

The most common par-4 distance on the course will be from 450-500. There are six holes of this length at TPC Southwind, which is at least double the amount of any other distance range.

Par 4: 450-500 Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+25.0)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+24.9)
  3. Sam Stevens (+17.6)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+16.2)
  5. Keith Mitchell (+16.1)

5. Bogey Avoidance

TPC Southwind features six holes with bogey percentages above 17.5%. Holes 5, 7, 12, 14, 17, and 18 are all very difficult and will give the field some trouble. With par being a good score on these particular holes, it will be important to target golfers who tend to avoid blemishes on the scorecard.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Tommy Fleetwood (+28.7)
  2. Hideki Matsuyama (+25.8) 
  3. Rory McIlroy (+23.9) 
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+21.9) 
  5. Tyrrell Hatton (+21.7)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (26%), SG: Ball Striking (23%%), GIR Gained (18.4%), Bogey Avoidance (18.4%), and Par 4: 450-500 (14%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2200)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+900)
  3. Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+3500)
  5. Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
  6. Jon Rahm (+3500)
  7. Wyndham Clark (+1400)
  8. Tommy Fleetwood (+10000)
  9. Rickie Fowler (+15000)
  10. Tyrrell Hatton (+1400)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Outright Bets

Tommy Fleetwood (+3300, BetRivers)

Tommy Fleetwood is having arguably his best ever season on the PGA Tour but still remains winless in the United States. On the year, the Englishman has six top-ten finishes and four top-five finishes. His play has been even better recently, and he’s only finished outside of the top-ten once in his past five starts.

Throughout his career, Tommy has played well at TPC Southwind when he arrives to the course in good form. He finished 4th in 2019 after a 13th at the Travelers Championship and 2nd at the Open Championship. In 2018, he finished 14th at TPC Southwind after finishes of 7th, 2nd, 12th and 6th in the four starts leading up to the event. When Fleetwood has been mediocre at this course, it’s consistently been when the lead-in form was mediocre as well.

In his past 24 rounds, Fleetwood ranks 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 1st in the field in Bogeys Avoided. In an event that may play relatively difficult, his ability to avoid mistakes should serve him well.

A FedEx Cup playoff victory would be a worthy exclamation point to what’s been a fantastic year for the 32-year-old.

Sam Burns (+4000, BetMGM)

Sam Burns was agonizingly close to winning at TPC Southwind but fell short in a playoff with Abraham Ancer and Hideki Matsuyama back in 2021. Last year, Burns played well at the course yet again, finishing 20th.

The American is rounding into form at just the right time. He’d love to be a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup team and his recent play may make him a contender for one of the final spots. He finished 13th last week at the Wyndham Championship and gained 4.6 strokes on approach and 4.1 strokes putting. Burns is a terrific putter on Bermudagrass and has rolled it really well at TPC Southwind in the past.

I believe a FedEx Cup playoff win would be enough to get Burns a spot on the flight to Rome in a few months, and is a great course fit for TPC Southwind.

Hideki Matsuyama (+4000, FanDuel)

Hideki Matsuyama has been about as easy to figure out this year as “Ice Puzzle 9” but I still believe he is playing better than his recent finishes may indicate. Last week, he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship but still gained strokes on approach and off the tee. He lost 5.8 strokes around the green due to a few plugged balls in the bunker including one that fell back into his own footprint. Matsuyama is typically fantastic around the greens, so I don’t believe the poor performance will follow him to Memphis.

Despite the relative struggles, in his past 24 rounds, Matsuyama ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 5th in Greens in Regulation Gained.

Hideki was also in the 2021 playoff at TPC Southwind with Burns and Ancer, falling just short of a victory. His elite iron play should allow him to contend once again at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Harris English (+11000, FanDuel)

Last week, Harris English showed some life at the Wyndham Championship. After a slow start, he rallied to make the cut on Friday and played even better over the weekend, finishing in 33rd.

Most importantly, English hit the ball great after not having played for a few weeks since the Open Championship. The 34-year-old gained 5.8 strokes on approach, which was his most in the category since the Wells Fargo in May, where he finished 3rd. English somehow lost 3.0 strokes around the green, which impacted his overall score, but was surely an aberration considering he has gained strokes around the green consistently throughout his career.

English boasts some impressive course history at TPC Southwind. He finished 4th in 2021 and 10th in 2017 in addition to his win at the course back in 2013.

If he can build off of his excellent iron play from last week, English could contend this week in Memphis.

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19th Hole

Tiger explains why golf has ‘negative connotations’ for daughter Sam

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While Tiger Woods’ son, Charlie, has certainly inherited his father’s love for golf, his daughter, Sam, has not.

On Wednesday, Tiger made an appearance on The Today Show with Carson Daly and explained his daughter’s relationship with golf.

“Golf has negative connotations for her. When she was growing up, golf took daddy away from her. I had to pack, I had to leave, and I was gone for weeks. So, there were negative connotations to it.

“We developed our own relationship and our own rapport outside of golf. We do things that doesn’t involve golf. Meanwhile, my son and I, everything we do is golf related.”

The nine-minute interview touches on plenty of other subjects, such as Tiger’s relationship with his late father, Earl.

It’s arguably the most open we’ve seen the 15-time major champion in an interview and is most definitely worth watching.

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Gary Player claims this is what ‘completely ruined’ Tiger Woods’ career

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While speaking with KW Golf, golf legend Gary Player said that he believes swing coaches ruined the career of Tiger Woods.

“The US Open at Pebble Beach, he won by 15 shots. You know what that’s like? It’s like running the 100 meters in seven seconds. The next week, he’s having a lesson from a man who, I don’t think, if he played in the Masters, could break 80.”

“And then he goes to another guy who couldn’t probably break 85 in the Masters with the pressure, or the British Open or the PGA on the final day. And he’s having lessons from them.”

“Why did Tiger do that? He was so good, but I understand he wanted to get better,” Player went on. “If he had just gone along and never changed, he would have won at least 22.. He would’ve gone down as the greatest athlete the world has ever seen.”

In 2008, Woods had won 14 majors and was 33 years old. It would take him eleven years to win his 15th at the 2019 Masters.

In addition to the swing coach issue, there are many other issues throughout the career of Woods that golf fans will look back on and wonder “what if.”

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Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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