19th Hole
Vincenzi’s BMW Championship betting preview: Rory primed for glory at Olympia Fields
The PGA TOUR has reached the penultimate event of the 2023 season as we head to Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois to play the BMW Championship.
The top-50 players left standing in the race for the FedEx Cup will tee it up this week looking to punch their ticket to East Lake.
This is the second time the BMW Championship will be played at Olympia Fields, with the first being in 2020 when Jon Rahm outdueled Dustin Johnson in an epic playoff.
The tournament will be held on Olympia Fields’ North Course, which is a par 70 measuring 7,366 yards and featuring Bluegrass greens similar to Poa annua.
The BMW Championship will be a no-cut event, with the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings moving onto the Tour Championship next week.
Past Winners at the BMW Championship
- 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) Wilmington Country Club
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) Caves Valley
- 2020: Jon Rahm (-4) Olympia Fields
- 2019: Justin Thomas (-25) Medinah
- 2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) Aronimink
- 2017: Marc Leishman (-23) Conway Farms
5 Key Stats For Olympia Fields Country Club
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Wilmington Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
SG: Approach tells us how close a golfer is getting to the hole on his approach to the green. When players are locked-in on their approach game, they often have far more opportunities to putt for birdie. This should serve as a particularly strong indicator for success at the BMW Championship.
- Scottie Scheffler (+38.7)
- Lucas Glover (+29.1)
- Russell Henley (+25.1)
- Rory McIlroy (+23.5)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+23.2)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is a combination of driving distance and driving accuracy and will be an important factor this week. Olympia Fields’ sizable par 70 includes many long par-4’s. Therefore, driving it long and in the fairway will be the best recipe for success.
- Rory McIlroy (+26.4)
- Scottie Scheffler (+25.4)
- Si Woo Kim (+20.9)
- Patrick Cantlay (+19.9)
- Byeong Hun An (+18.6)
Proximity 175-200
With many of the holes at Olympia Fields being relatively long, most of the approach shots will be coming from the proximity of 175 to 200 yards. It will be important to target good long-iron players.
- Viktor Hovland (22.0)
- Scottie Scheffler (+19.7)
- Eric Cole (+13.2)
- Sepp Straka (+11.9)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+11.7)
Par 4’s 450-500
This course features seven par 4s playing at a difficult distance of 450 to 500 yards. Players’ recent success navigating long par 4s will be one of the most important indicators for success at the BMW Championship.
- Rory McIlroy (+25.1)
- Viktor Hovland (+22.0)
- Scottie Scheffler (+22.0)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+15.3)
- Lucas Glover (+14.7)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Tee-to-green success reports how efficient a player is at getting his ball to the green. It is a combination of Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
This statistic is especially important on long golf courses like Olympia Fields this weekend. Put simply, it indicates which golfer is in the best current form.
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.3)
- Rory McIlroy (+2.3)
- Lucas Glover (+1.8)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1.7)
- Viktor Hovland (+1.6)
Statistical Model
Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.
- Scottie Scheffler (+800)
- Rory McIlroy (+800)
- Lucas Glover (+3300)
- Viktor Hovland (+1600)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1000)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
- Jon Rahm (+1000)
- Si Woo Kim (+5000)
- Rickie Fowler (+3300)
BMW Championship Picks
Rory McIlroy +800 (Bet365):
Last week, an underdog was able to emerge victorious at the Fed Ex St. Jude Championship. With a 50-man field at Olympia Fields this week, I don’t believe that will happen again. While there are always outliers, no-cut small field events tend to cause the best players in the world to rise to the top.
Of the best players in the world, none are playing better at the moment than Rory McIlroy. In his past 24 rounds, the 34-year-old ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 1st in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. McIlroy has not finished outside of the top-10 in any of his past eight events.
Rory’s majestic ball striking was on full display once again at TPC Southwind last week. He gained 4.4 strokes off the tee and 4.7 strokes on approach on his way to a tie for 3rd place finish. Say what you will about McIlroy’s ability to win majors over the past decade, but his propensity to win FedEx Cup events cannot be denied. The Northern Irishman is currently tied with Dustin Johnson for the most FedEx Cup wins and seems poised to pass him this week.
Olympia Fields is what I call a “big boy” golf course. Last week, iron play and putting was enough to win in Memphis, but this is a completely different golf course. The track is an absolute brute and requires power to contend. In 2020, Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson played bully ball on their way to a playoff, with big hitters Joaquin Niemann, Tony Finau and Hideki Matsuyama (who was hitting it much further in 2023) were the only other players under par.
Rory McIlroy is incredibly difficult to beat at this time of year and has the perfect skill set to tame the extremely difficult Olympia Fields at the BMW Championship.
Cameron Young +4000 (FanDuel):
As I mentioned above, Olympia Fields is a long and difficult golf course. I believe distance off the tee will be more of a benefit at this course than any other course on Tour this season. Although he’s been up and down this season, there’s no denying that Cameron Young is among the world’s best with a driver in his hands. In the field, Rory McIlroy is the only player that beats Young in driving distance.
In addition to the major distance advantage Young will have on the field, he also does a lot of his best work in difficult events. He’s been excellent in major championships as well as difficult tracks such as Riviera and Quail Hollow. Last week, Young gained 3.6 strokes off the tee at TPC Southwind, and I believe will have the chance to gain even more this week on a course where he can let the driver loose on just about every hole.
Young is yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he’s been knocking at the door in all of the biggest events. The BMW Championship will play like a major championship, which means the 25-year-old should find himself right in the thick of it yet again.
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19th Hole
Gary Player claims this is what ‘completely ruined’ Tiger Woods’ career
While speaking with KW Golf, golf legend Gary Player said that he believes swing coaches ruined the career of Tiger Woods.
“The US Open at Pebble Beach, he won by 15 shots. You know what that’s like? It’s like running the 100 meters in seven seconds. The next week, he’s having a lesson from a man who, I don’t think, if he played in the Masters, could break 80.”
“And then he goes to another guy who couldn’t probably break 85 in the Masters with the pressure, or the British Open or the PGA on the final day. And he’s having lessons from them.”
“Why did Tiger do that? He was so good, but I understand he wanted to get better,” Player went on. “If he had just gone along and never changed, he would have won at least 22.. He would’ve gone down as the greatest athlete the world has ever seen.”
In 2008, Woods had won 14 majors and was 33 years old. It would take him eleven years to win his 15th at the 2019 Masters.
In addition to the swing coach issue, there are many other issues throughout the career of Woods that golf fans will look back on and wonder “what if.”
More from the 19th Hole
- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again
After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.
Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.
Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”
Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.
“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.
Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.
“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”
“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”
As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.
In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.
“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”
Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.
Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:
Fairways Hit
1.) Louis Oosthuizen
2.) Anirban Lahiri
3.) Jon Rahm
4.) Brendan Steele
5.) Cameron Tringale
Greens in Regulation
1.) Brooks Koepka
2.) Brendan Steele
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Cameron Tringale
5.) Anirban Lahiri
Birdies Made
1.) Brendan Steele
2.) Dean Burmester
3.) Thomas Pieters
4.) Patrick Reed
5.) Carlos Ortiz
LIV Golf Individual Standings:
1.) Joaquin Niemann
2.) Jon Rahm
3.) Dean Burmester
4.) Louis Oosthuizen
5.) Abraham Ancer
LIV Golf Team Standings:
1.) Crushers
2.) Legion XIII
3.) Torque
4.) Stinger GC
5.) Ripper GC
LIV Golf Singapore Picks
Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)
Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.
This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.
Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)
Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.
This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.
It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.
Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)
Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.
Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.
Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.
Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)
Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.
Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.
If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.
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19th Hole
LIV star splits with swing coach after working together for 14 years
After fourteen years together, LIV Golf’s Adrian Meronk has decided to part ways with his swing coach, Matthew Tipper.
On Monday, Tipper announced the split via social media.
— Matthew Tipper (@Matthew__Tipper) April 29, 2024
“After 14 years sometimes things just come to an end. Last week Adrian decided he wanted to go a new way and I have to respect that decision. I’m proud of everything we achieved together.
“I knew in 2010 he was a great talent and he has only gone to prove that all over the world. To Pietro Gobinho and Stuart Beck, thank you for being amazing caddies when Adrian needed you. Your support and co-operation has been invaluable and I thank you both.
“I want to publicly thank Adrian for allowing me to sit in the best seat in the house for 14 years.
“It’s now time to start my new chapter in the USA alongside my mentor James Sieckmann and I’m excited to go to my first Korn Ferry Tour event later next month. As always tomorrow we begin again.”
Meronk is having a poor season by his standards on LIV. The reigning DP World Tour player had some solid finishes early in the year, finishing T9 and T6 at LIV Las Vegas and LIV Jeddah, but missed the cut at the Masters and has failed to crack the top-10 in his past three LIV starts.
More from the 19th Hole
- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
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