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The best bets to win the 2023 RBC Heritage

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From the wide fairways and large, almost impossible greens of Augusta to the flatter, narrower Harbour Town course, its tree-lined fairways and smaller greens giving a huge push towards players that suit accurate iron shots over brute force, with a nod to those that can scramble should they be unfortunate enough to miss the short stuff.

Hardly an event that is ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’, with this new ‘designated’ event tempting all the qualified players in the world’s top 50, including the new Masters champion Jon Rahm.

Whether these all turn up after a gruelling final day at Augusta must be in doubt but, for now, we play the hand we have.

In terms of Masters form translating to Harbour Town, the top-30 from last year’s RBC Heritage contained Shane Lowry (tied-3rd the week before), Collin Morikawa (5th), Corey Conners (T6), Sungjae Im (T8), Tommy Fleetwood (T14) and Harold Varner III (T23). However, eventual winner Jordan Spieth had missed the cut by two shots, that missed weekend being a factor he shared with both Webb Simpson (2020) and C.T Pan (2019) both winners in admittedly calmer waters.

Best bet – Sungjae Im

Despite admirable consistency at the highest level, the 25-year-old has won just two events on tour, the most recent being the Shriners, in October 2021 and it’s about time the world number 17 got his head in front again.

Given he wasn’t really involved in the finish last weekend, his third top-16 from four Augusta outings looks a perfect prelude to an event that sees the top three in the betting sharing three previous outings, the best of which being Rahm’s 33rd here on his only start in 2020. As I write, Rory McIlroy has just withdrawn and it wouldn’t surprise should both Rahm and Scottie Scheffler do the same.

The regularity of Sungjae’s play is certainly leaning towards something special very soon, with his ten completed starts in 2023 rewarding him with three top-10 finishes, at Torrey Pines, Scottsdale and Sawgrass.

Look closer and the Korean was in challenging positions going into the final day in five of those 10, being seventh at the Tournament of Champions, ninth at the American Express, fourth at the Farmers, sixth at Phoenix and eighth at Sawgrass, whilst he was in 15th after three rounds last weekend.

Top-25 for accuracy off the tee in seven events this year (including his last five) he is also finding enough greens to think he can put it down to the best of his rivals this week.

Although he missed the cut here on his first two outings, 2021 saw him finish 13th after being top-20 in tee, approaches and tee-to-green (28th putting) and a year later he finished just outside the top-20, mainly due to losing four strokes on the putting surface, a factor that didn’t reward similar tee-to-green numbers (led off-the-tee based on accuracy).

A player with excellent Pete Dye form – a worst of 18th from four outings at the American Express, and 6th and 17th at The Players’ – he also boasts a fourth and 29th (sixth at halfway) at the comparable Valspar at Innisbrook, an event that Spieth has also won while, amongst others, Simpson, Stewart Cink and Luke Donald share top finishes.

Next best – Shane Lowry

In a similar vein to Sungjae, Shane Lowry has produced long-term form that deserves more than a single PGA Tour victory at the Bridgestone Invitational in 2015.

Of course, the Irishman was born and bred to play golf in poor conditions, so if there is any hangover from the weather at nearby Augusta the winner of the Irish Open, Portugal Masters, Abu Dhabi Championship and The Open at Royal Portrush should be well suited to take advantage.

The 36-year-old isn’t entirely weather-biased and last week’s tied-16th was his fourth consecutive top-25 finish at Augusta, a feature of his play here just seven days later.

Lowry missed the cut at the Masters in 2019 before finishing third here a week later, improved from 21st at Augusta to finish in the top-10 in 2021, and then matched a Masters third place with the same here last season.

Take Lockdown year away and Lowry has made a total of four cuts from four starts here, improving on his debut 44th (fifth after the first round) to finish third, ninth and third, shooting rounds of 65 and 66 in each of his last two tries.

In each of his last two years, the world number 23 has recorded top-10 ranks in approaches and tee-to-green, whilst in three of his four completed events he has inside the top-20 for the flat stick  .

Those likeable stats have continued into 2023 and Lowry has finished inside the top-20 for Harbour Town’s vital stats – driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation – at Riviera, the Honda and last week at Augusta, when ranking in the top five for both.

One that repeats form from year to year at the same courses, he looks terrific value at anything over 25/1.

Outsider – Cam Davis 

With the two main selections appealing most from all those up to around 60/1, look for a three-figure bet to offer value against those up front with question marks surrounding them.

In siding with the Australian, we have a player that again will relish a wind-affected tournament, having won the 2017 Australian Open from Matt Jones (Houston and Honda winner) with Cam Smith, Jason Day and Spieth behind.

It’s not gone quite to plan since, but the 28-year-old has plenty of form that stacks up with recent contenders here.

His sole PGA Tour victory at the Rocket Mortgage came via a play-off victory over Troy Merritt (third, 10th and 12th here) and Joaquin Niemann (top-five finishes at the Sony, Texas and Valspar and Harbour Town) whilst he also has front page finishes at the Dye-influenced American Express and Sawgrass, Charles Schwab, Honda and John Deere, all courses relating to recent previous Heritage champions.

Including some of those, Davis’ best finishes since the start of 2022 include six top-10s and three top-20 finishes and he ended the year with a fast-closing seventh place behind Cam Smith at his home PGA.

Third, after three rounds of the Players a month ago, he missed the cut last time out in Texas where, despite a valiant best-of-second round 66, was always unlikely to make the weekend after an opening 80. That appears to have put a few points on his price, and he’ll be backed for the big victory but also for a third top-20 finish in four outings.

Top-20 – Corey Conners

I know. Conners was awful last week.

Although I can’t get some appalling short game errors out of my mind, it’s difficult to shake off a player that suits this track down to the ground and for whom it is relatively easy to make a case for.

Take Augusta away and the season has gone relatively well.

In eighth place at halfway, the 31-year-old finished 18th at the opening Tournament of Champions then 12th at the Sony and, 21st at Bay Hill (third at halfway), before winning two of his three group games at the Match Play, losing only at the final hole to eventual runner-up Cameron Young.

Given the way Conners repeats form, it was no surprise to see him creep closer each round before eventually repeating his 2019 victory at the 2019 Texas Open, again putting up yet another sterling performance for tee-to-green fans.

As at Waialae, Conners led the greens-in-regulation stats, and at both he racked up double-figures for his tee-to-green superiority, a huge factor around Harbour Town, where his relatively weak putting can be disguised.

For whatever reason, Conners produced a display far from the previous three consecutive Masters top-10s and I’ll put that down as an anomaly. If that is the case, Conners has drifted 10 points for no good reason, a factor that affects his price in the place markets.

Although missing the cut in his first three tries, the Canadian would number 30 has improved since landing in the top echelons of the rankings, finishing 21st, fourth and 12th in 2020 through to 2022 recording just two rounds over 70. Those figures could easily have been better given he lay in second place at the halfway stage of 2020 and 2021, and third after the opening round last year.

He could be a very big price to gain an outright place, but I’ll err on the side of caution after Augusta and play the much safer game.

Recommended Bets:

  • Sungjae Im – WIN
  • Shane Lowry – WIN/TOP-5
  • Cam Davis – WIN/TOP-5
  • Corey Conners – TOP-20 
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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