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The Wedge Guy: Why modern irons don’t make sense to me

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One of the things that really bothers me about most of the newer iron models that are introduced is the continued strengthening of the lofts — I just don’t see how this is really going to help many golfers. The introduction of driver and hybrid technologies into the irons – thinner faster faces, tungsten inserts and filling the heads with some kind of polymer material – is all with the goal of producing higher ball flight with lower spin. But is that what you really want?

I’ll grant you that this technology makes the lower lofts much easier to master, and has given many more golfers confidence with their 5- and 6-irons, maybe even their 4- and 5-. But are higher launch and lower spin desirable in your shorter irons? I’ve always believed those clubs from 35 degrees on up should be designed for precision distance control, whether full swings are when you are “taking something off,” and I just don’t see that happening with a hollow, low CG design.

Even worse, with lofts being continually cranked downward, most modern game improvement sets have a “P-club” as low as 42-43 degrees of loft. Because that simply cannot function as a “wedge”, the iron brands are encouraging you to add in an “A-club” to fill the distance void between that and your gap wedge.

But as you ponder these new iron technologies, here’s something to realize . . . and think about.

Discounting your putter, you have 13 clubs in your bag to negotiate a golf course. At one end, you have a driver of 10-12 degrees of loft, and at the other end your highest lofted wedge of say, 58 to 60 degrees. So, that’s a spread of 46 to 50 degrees. The mid-point of that spread is somewhere around 35 degrees, the iron in your bag that probably has an “8” on the bottom.

Now consider this: From that 35-degree 8-iron downward, you have a progression of clubhead designs, from the iron design, to hybrids, to fairway woods to your driver, maybe even a “driving iron” design as a bridge between your lowest set-match iron to your hybrids. At least four, if not five, completely different clubhead designs.

But in the other direction, from 35 degrees to that highest lofted wedge, you likely only have two designs – your set-match irons and your wedges, each of which all essentially look alike, regardless of loft.
I feel certain that no one in the history of golf ever said:

“I really like my 6-iron; can you make me a 3-wood that looks like that?”

But do you realize the loft difference between your 6-iron and 3-wood is only 12-14 degrees, even less than that between your 6-iron and “P-club”? So, if you can’t optimize an iron design to perform at both 28 and 15 degrees, how can you possibly expect to be able to optimize the performance of one design at both 28 and 43 degrees?

And you darn sure won’t get your best performance by applying 6-iron technology to an “A-club” of 48 to 50 degrees.

This fact of golf club performance is why you see so many “blended” sets of irons in bags these days, where a golfer has a higher-tech iron design in the lower lofts, but a more traditional blade or “near blade” design in the higher lofts. This makes much more sense than trying to play pure blade long irons or “techy” higher lofts.

Most of my column posts are oriented to offering a solution to a problem you might have in your game, but this one doesn’t. As long as the industry is focused on the traditional notion of “matched sets,” meaning all the irons look alike, I just don’t see how any golfer is going to get an optimum set of irons without lots of trial and error and piecing together a set of irons where each one works best for the job you give it.

If you want to see how an elite player has done this for his own game, do some reading on “what’s in the bag” for Bernhard Langer. Very interesting indeed.

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Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”.   But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. Murv

    Dec 2, 2022 at 12:52 pm

    I’ll be 79 for next season. A couple of years ago I had a short trial with a 7 wood. Didn’t like it. Put it back in last fall and loved it. Looking for a 9 wood. Will go from 2 fairways and 3 hybrids to 4 woods and 1 hybrid then the 7 iron. Sad when you can’t elevate hybrids anymore. 44 set pw. 49, 54 and 58 wedges.

  2. Neville Hubbard

    Dec 2, 2022 at 11:23 am

    I have 16.5° 3-wood, 19°, 23°, 25° hybrids, 27.5° 7-iron, 31° 7-iron, then conventionally lofted clubs to a 44° pitching wedge, 50° gap wedge, 56° sand wedge and, I’m ashamed to say, a chipper!!! It works for me!!!

  3. WiTerrp

    Dec 2, 2022 at 11:19 am

    By trial and error, my set reflects your opinion. In the under 90 mph driver head speed, I only routinely carry 7-P irons. My gap wedge is a Vokey, not the set 48 iron. The wedge is far better at feel shots and the P can cover shots that I would use the 48. The 6 iron is replaced by a 25 hybrid. I have both the 6 and 48 irons, but only carry the 6I based on a specific par 3 distances Since adding the wedge, the 48 is pretty much just for set resale value.

    Having lost club head speed, the promise of more distance doesn’t impress me much. When an iron can’t give me 10+ yards over the previous iron, time to add another hybrid.

  4. Larry "Bud" Melman

    Dec 2, 2022 at 1:41 am

    Naw bruh, I want 4 irons in the bag and 7 wedges. That’s just how I roll.

  5. David Aceto

    Dec 1, 2022 at 5:48 pm

    good article my irons start 31 to 33 degrees to 36 to 41 to 46 to 51 degrees 5 degree gaps due to my 65 mph clubhead speed with a iron the only speciality is i use r9 tp b irons for my 8 9 and pitching wedge works out great

  6. Rob

    Dec 1, 2022 at 5:40 pm

    Overfocusing on Loft is just as bad as overfocusing on the number on the bottom of the club.

    Loft, and especially static loft, is only one variable in the equation. Work backwards from your ideal ball flight, distances, forgiveness, and feel instead.

    Whatever that loft, length, clubhead, and shaft is, let that be.

    • Jeff

      Dec 3, 2022 at 10:26 pm

      Many golf ball OEM’S when working with their various tour staff. Start working with their staff from the green to their drivers. The player wants the sound and feel of the ball around the green. Shows the importance of having the right ball for the short game.

  7. Edward Gambler

    Dec 1, 2022 at 5:21 pm

    You loft jack complainers miss out on one important factor. Shorter shafts are easier to hit and easier to hit straight. So putting a 7 iron loft on an eight iron shaft immediately makes that distance easier to manage for the average and sub average golfer. Simple fact.
    You claim we shouldn’t care what number is on the club, but it seems to me you’re the ones who get all bent out of shape with the number not meaning what you want it to. Lighten up…I went from about 6 GIR per round with my traditionally lofted irons to over ten with my new PXGs. All that extra distance with shorter shafts and more forgiveness has been an absolute Godsend.

    • Philip

      Dec 2, 2022 at 9:33 am

      You only posted to brag you paid a ridiculous amount of money for clubs made by a dope. I a 5 and he’s ? right… I even published an article about this very topic when I was marketing Director for a HIGH END boutique club maker

  8. Mark Blake

    Dec 1, 2022 at 4:02 pm

    The number on the club matters because 8 iron and above is a different shape to 7 iron down. i guess because 8 iron is formerly a ‘pitching’ club, and therefore is used for different shotmaking.

    So yes its ridiculous to have an 8 iron at <40 deg of loft, because that means a golfer needs even more wedges.

    One day golfers will be advised to drop the "hard to hit" short irons, and just use some hybrids then a 30 degree wedge, then more wedges. Then they will call it a 1 wedge and so on.

  9. Kourt

    Dec 1, 2022 at 11:13 am

    This dude just loves blades, which is fine, but I’ve seen many high handicap golfers find much more joy in their games by playing game improvement irons. Even with my dad switching to cbx cavity wedges has helped him. Yes if you’re an elite striker they might not be “as precise” but for most high handicappers they are just trying to avoid bunkers and hit more greens.

    • Livininparadise

      Dec 9, 2022 at 11:57 am

      I have to agree with you. Many high handicapped golfers can’t hit blade style wedges any better than they could a 1 iron. I notice that their distance is very inconsistent with blade style wedges, which causes them more issues than direction.

      This article is for some players. Most players should get fitted and not worry about what Bernhard Langer is hitting

  10. Reality

    Dec 1, 2022 at 4:29 am

    I’ve never been happier than with my new Titleist T300’s. I play Driver, 23 Hybrid, 7, 8, 9, P, W1, W2, 56Vokey and 60Vokey. I am 72 years old with a handicap of 26 and am hitting my 7 iron 15 yards further than when I was 34 years old playing off 2!

  11. sandtrap

    Dec 1, 2022 at 4:11 am

    Pickles I think one of the main points in this debate is that some manufacturers choose to make their 9 irons with 37 or 38deg lofts while a traditional 7 iron might be 36 or 37deg. These manufacturers know full well that the average person comes out of a club fitting thinking ‘Gee I hit those INSERT BRAND NAME HERE’s 9 iron(not knowing it is 38deg)just as far as INSERT BRAND NAME HERE’s 7 iron (nearly the same loft)… They must be the superior club!’

    This is completely deceitful and all it is accomplishing is moving the goal posts. I can’t wait until the day when we are all playing bag consisting of a Driver then a 21 deg 9iron, and then F, O, E, Q, J, X, A, G, P, S and L wedge. The only realistic way to get around this would be to label every club by degrees instead of a number or have industry regulations as to what loft within a degree, belongs on each iron. Then manufacturers would actually be able to sell the clubs due to the actual characteristics and engineering of the club eg.higher launch/steeper descent angle, more forgiving etc.

    One writer on WRX argued your same point just as poorly a few years ago after publishing an obvious paid advertisement/review/article by an OEM who had strengthened their lofts considerably in one line of irons and stating that they were revolutionary in terms of length.

    However , the only real objective way to compare clubs from a performance perspective is to eliminate as many of the variables as possible and making a decision from there. Same shaft, same flex, same loft, same ball and even as far as same grip and number of papers. However OEM’s knowing that their 8iron is actually a 6.5 iron and still marketing it as an 8 is taking advantage of Average Joe’s ignorance of what they are ACTUALLY hitting.

    FYI- I hit my F-Wedge further than your 4 iron 😉

    • Jeff

      Dec 3, 2022 at 11:36 pm

      1. Never going to get industry standards. Clubs, balls, shafts, etc. Different strokes for different fokes.
      2. Stamping/loft on an iron doesn’t work! We saw that did not work a few years back. I don’t want to have to pull out a piece of paper and match the number to the iron I am playing. That will certainly slow play and we already have that problem!!
      3.All OEM’s have on their web sites the specs of their irons. So they are not hiring their lofts
      4. Do you only buy one shirt color or pants color?

    • Jeff

      Dec 3, 2022 at 11:42 pm

      Paper? Did you mean wraps/tape?Looks like your advocating bifurification. Typo on previous email OEM’S not hiring their specs

    • Pickles

      Dec 6, 2022 at 11:42 pm

      Sandtrap, I’d guess we agree on more than disagree. Agreed, many buyers may get confused by loft changes over the last decade. But to be fair, lofts have been strengthening since the modern balata era. At one point, your “traditional” 37 degree 7 iron would’ve been considered strong.

      However, you are missing the main points from my post. The author contends that consumers are hurt because OEMs design short irons exactly as they do long irons. My rebuttal was that I disagreed that OEMs do this, giving examples of specific iron sets that contradict authors point.
      Additionally, I disagreed with the premise that irons should have an even spread of loft because loft’s impact on distance is correlated with speed. As speed decreases, so too does the impact of loft. Test for yourself, tweak a 64 degree wedge one degree and note the distance change. (Or go to the extreme and tweak your putter). Then tweak your driver a degree and note the change. Surely if you have access to a boutique club fitter you could obtain the data. All loft degrees are not equal, thus it is illogical to gap a set purely on loft. In my set, I don’t care what the number on the sole is, I care how far it goes. Happy to carry a 4iron as my longest, or a 2, whichever hits my number.

      FYI- funny quip about your f wedge. Afraid you’re probably overconfident tho; my college degree was free thanks to golf ?

  12. jamho3

    Nov 30, 2022 at 5:20 pm

    TK.

    I know this matches your club making agenda, but at the same time I still appreciate your being willing to take this on and spread the truth and this perspective. Keep it up.

  13. O_o

    Nov 30, 2022 at 2:48 pm

    Fittings over the last 4 years have shown me that the average golfer really isn’t interested in improving their game realistically anyway, and it’s obvious that these equipment companies know that. If hitting a 6 iron an extra 15 yards means something to Joe the 27 handicap, more power to him. Whatever makes you enjoy the game

    • Jeff

      Dec 3, 2022 at 11:45 pm

      I haven’t met anyone yet who wants to hit it shorter! Age will allow that to happen.LOL

  14. Common sense.

    Nov 30, 2022 at 2:42 pm

    Ego and salesmanship is the answer. You can sell a 130 yard pitching wedge alot easier than a 110 yard pw.

  15. Clayton

    Nov 30, 2022 at 2:14 pm

    I agree, but well thought out irons like my Mizuno 223 have a more “wedge like” 8 to Pw based off 46*. A bit strong but nothing crazy. That being said, I’m planning on reshafting some classic CB irons I have based off a 48* PW, bending them all a degree weak and seeing how I like that wider spread from 3 to PW, gaining a long iron slot but not losing my “GW” loft (49-51) that I use so much every round. It’ll just be called a PW again like it was in the 1990-2010s.

  16. Matts

    Nov 30, 2022 at 2:10 pm

    I agree that current modern day iron sets (4 iron to PW) have too many clubs with lofts less than forty degrees and often with only three or two and a half degrees of loft between clubs, for most average golfers. If you cannot hold a green with a long iron, you should change to a hybrid or a lofted fairway wood if those clubs can.

    • Matts

      Nov 30, 2022 at 2:21 pm

      To expand further, the golfer of average driver swing speed (90 to 95 mph) needs a WITB of driver, fairway wood/s, hybrid/s, irons and specialist wedges, meaning buying a set of irons (4I through PW) is wasteful because one should not be putting some of those irons in your bag.

  17. Pickles

    Nov 30, 2022 at 1:12 pm

    First, I don’t agree with the general argument because it’s circular. If loft is such a critical determinant, why should one care if their set is a 5-A instead of a 4-P? Even with your point about a 6 iron being so close to a 3 wood, why does that matter if it’s the longest iron in one’s bag (and how many people should even carry a 15 fairway anymore)?

    Second, a degree of loft doesn’t have a linear impact on distance relative to speed. As clubspeed decreases, more loft is required to impact distance. A degree of loft difference with a driver could account for 20 yards, a 59 degree wedge might only carry 3 yards further than a 60 degree. Surely this should impact one’s set makeup more than sticking to an arbitrary loft spread.

    Last the author argues that OEM’s make short irons the same as long. Unfortunately, OEM’s have been incorporating blended sets into one for a decade or more. Taylormade RBZ Tour, Titleist AP2, etc, have had game improvement tech in the long irons (slots, tungsten) with more basic/traditional short irons. This might not even be expressly necessary; as loft increases, the value of these game improvement aspects diminishes.

    • Cucumbers

      Dec 1, 2022 at 3:00 am

      Extremely well said

    • Livininparadise

      Dec 9, 2022 at 12:08 pm

      Pickles, yes.

      Kohler should know this and any article like this that does not give a brief overview of moden club design is disingenuous.

      In an effort to make clubs easier to hit, manufacturers have lowered the center of gravity. If traditional lofts were utilized, everyone would just pop the ball up, so lofts have to be dialed down. The result happens to be a club that does hit the ball further, but also is easier to hit. However, just because clubs are easier to hit does not take into consideration lack of practice and lack of overall ability. They players that have benefited from easier to hit clubs get closer to the green in regulation. However, talent gets the ball into the hole.

  18. Raj LP

    Nov 30, 2022 at 11:34 am

    This quest for low spin and distance has been interesting to me as well but I am a higher swing speed player so I have P770s which are a more traditional lofted. I find those go a specific distance more consistently. Whereas, the modern lofted irons gave me a pretty big variance on distance. I guess the manufacturers point is that, by moving COG lower, the trajectory of a longer shot will give it the same height and landing iron of a shorter iron. Hence, it enables lower swing speed hitters to reach greens further away and still hold them.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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