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The Wedge Guy: Why modern irons don’t make sense to me

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One of the things that really bothers me about most of the newer iron models that are introduced is the continued strengthening of the lofts — I just don’t see how this is really going to help many golfers. The introduction of driver and hybrid technologies into the irons – thinner faster faces, tungsten inserts and filling the heads with some kind of polymer material – is all with the goal of producing higher ball flight with lower spin. But is that what you really want?

I’ll grant you that this technology makes the lower lofts much easier to master, and has given many more golfers confidence with their 5- and 6-irons, maybe even their 4- and 5-. But are higher launch and lower spin desirable in your shorter irons? I’ve always believed those clubs from 35 degrees on up should be designed for precision distance control, whether full swings are when you are “taking something off,” and I just don’t see that happening with a hollow, low CG design.

Even worse, with lofts being continually cranked downward, most modern game improvement sets have a “P-club” as low as 42-43 degrees of loft. Because that simply cannot function as a “wedge”, the iron brands are encouraging you to add in an “A-club” to fill the distance void between that and your gap wedge.

But as you ponder these new iron technologies, here’s something to realize . . . and think about.

Discounting your putter, you have 13 clubs in your bag to negotiate a golf course. At one end, you have a driver of 10-12 degrees of loft, and at the other end your highest lofted wedge of say, 58 to 60 degrees. So, that’s a spread of 46 to 50 degrees. The mid-point of that spread is somewhere around 35 degrees, the iron in your bag that probably has an “8” on the bottom.

Now consider this: From that 35-degree 8-iron downward, you have a progression of clubhead designs, from the iron design, to hybrids, to fairway woods to your driver, maybe even a “driving iron” design as a bridge between your lowest set-match iron to your hybrids. At least four, if not five, completely different clubhead designs.

But in the other direction, from 35 degrees to that highest lofted wedge, you likely only have two designs – your set-match irons and your wedges, each of which all essentially look alike, regardless of loft.
I feel certain that no one in the history of golf ever said:

“I really like my 6-iron; can you make me a 3-wood that looks like that?”

But do you realize the loft difference between your 6-iron and 3-wood is only 12-14 degrees, even less than that between your 6-iron and “P-club”? So, if you can’t optimize an iron design to perform at both 28 and 15 degrees, how can you possibly expect to be able to optimize the performance of one design at both 28 and 43 degrees?

And you darn sure won’t get your best performance by applying 6-iron technology to an “A-club” of 48 to 50 degrees.

This fact of golf club performance is why you see so many “blended” sets of irons in bags these days, where a golfer has a higher-tech iron design in the lower lofts, but a more traditional blade or “near blade” design in the higher lofts. This makes much more sense than trying to play pure blade long irons or “techy” higher lofts.

Most of my column posts are oriented to offering a solution to a problem you might have in your game, but this one doesn’t. As long as the industry is focused on the traditional notion of “matched sets,” meaning all the irons look alike, I just don’t see how any golfer is going to get an optimum set of irons without lots of trial and error and piecing together a set of irons where each one works best for the job you give it.

If you want to see how an elite player has done this for his own game, do some reading on “what’s in the bag” for Bernhard Langer. Very interesting indeed.

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Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”.   But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

29 Comments

29 Comments

  1. Murv

    Dec 2, 2022 at 12:52 pm

    I’ll be 79 for next season. A couple of years ago I had a short trial with a 7 wood. Didn’t like it. Put it back in last fall and loved it. Looking for a 9 wood. Will go from 2 fairways and 3 hybrids to 4 woods and 1 hybrid then the 7 iron. Sad when you can’t elevate hybrids anymore. 44 set pw. 49, 54 and 58 wedges.

  2. Neville Hubbard

    Dec 2, 2022 at 11:23 am

    I have 16.5° 3-wood, 19°, 23°, 25° hybrids, 27.5° 7-iron, 31° 7-iron, then conventionally lofted clubs to a 44° pitching wedge, 50° gap wedge, 56° sand wedge and, I’m ashamed to say, a chipper!!! It works for me!!!

  3. WiTerrp

    Dec 2, 2022 at 11:19 am

    By trial and error, my set reflects your opinion. In the under 90 mph driver head speed, I only routinely carry 7-P irons. My gap wedge is a Vokey, not the set 48 iron. The wedge is far better at feel shots and the P can cover shots that I would use the 48. The 6 iron is replaced by a 25 hybrid. I have both the 6 and 48 irons, but only carry the 6I based on a specific par 3 distances Since adding the wedge, the 48 is pretty much just for set resale value.

    Having lost club head speed, the promise of more distance doesn’t impress me much. When an iron can’t give me 10+ yards over the previous iron, time to add another hybrid.

  4. Larry "Bud" Melman

    Dec 2, 2022 at 1:41 am

    Naw bruh, I want 4 irons in the bag and 7 wedges. That’s just how I roll.

  5. David Aceto

    Dec 1, 2022 at 5:48 pm

    good article my irons start 31 to 33 degrees to 36 to 41 to 46 to 51 degrees 5 degree gaps due to my 65 mph clubhead speed with a iron the only speciality is i use r9 tp b irons for my 8 9 and pitching wedge works out great

  6. Rob

    Dec 1, 2022 at 5:40 pm

    Overfocusing on Loft is just as bad as overfocusing on the number on the bottom of the club.

    Loft, and especially static loft, is only one variable in the equation. Work backwards from your ideal ball flight, distances, forgiveness, and feel instead.

    Whatever that loft, length, clubhead, and shaft is, let that be.

    • Jeff

      Dec 3, 2022 at 10:26 pm

      Many golf ball OEM’S when working with their various tour staff. Start working with their staff from the green to their drivers. The player wants the sound and feel of the ball around the green. Shows the importance of having the right ball for the short game.

  7. Edward Gambler

    Dec 1, 2022 at 5:21 pm

    You loft jack complainers miss out on one important factor. Shorter shafts are easier to hit and easier to hit straight. So putting a 7 iron loft on an eight iron shaft immediately makes that distance easier to manage for the average and sub average golfer. Simple fact.
    You claim we shouldn’t care what number is on the club, but it seems to me you’re the ones who get all bent out of shape with the number not meaning what you want it to. Lighten up…I went from about 6 GIR per round with my traditionally lofted irons to over ten with my new PXGs. All that extra distance with shorter shafts and more forgiveness has been an absolute Godsend.

    • Philip

      Dec 2, 2022 at 9:33 am

      You only posted to brag you paid a ridiculous amount of money for clubs made by a dope. I a 5 and he’s ? right… I even published an article about this very topic when I was marketing Director for a HIGH END boutique club maker

  8. Mark Blake

    Dec 1, 2022 at 4:02 pm

    The number on the club matters because 8 iron and above is a different shape to 7 iron down. i guess because 8 iron is formerly a ‘pitching’ club, and therefore is used for different shotmaking.

    So yes its ridiculous to have an 8 iron at <40 deg of loft, because that means a golfer needs even more wedges.

    One day golfers will be advised to drop the "hard to hit" short irons, and just use some hybrids then a 30 degree wedge, then more wedges. Then they will call it a 1 wedge and so on.

  9. Kourt

    Dec 1, 2022 at 11:13 am

    This dude just loves blades, which is fine, but I’ve seen many high handicap golfers find much more joy in their games by playing game improvement irons. Even with my dad switching to cbx cavity wedges has helped him. Yes if you’re an elite striker they might not be “as precise” but for most high handicappers they are just trying to avoid bunkers and hit more greens.

    • Livininparadise

      Dec 9, 2022 at 11:57 am

      I have to agree with you. Many high handicapped golfers can’t hit blade style wedges any better than they could a 1 iron. I notice that their distance is very inconsistent with blade style wedges, which causes them more issues than direction.

      This article is for some players. Most players should get fitted and not worry about what Bernhard Langer is hitting

  10. Reality

    Dec 1, 2022 at 4:29 am

    I’ve never been happier than with my new Titleist T300’s. I play Driver, 23 Hybrid, 7, 8, 9, P, W1, W2, 56Vokey and 60Vokey. I am 72 years old with a handicap of 26 and am hitting my 7 iron 15 yards further than when I was 34 years old playing off 2!

  11. sandtrap

    Dec 1, 2022 at 4:11 am

    Pickles I think one of the main points in this debate is that some manufacturers choose to make their 9 irons with 37 or 38deg lofts while a traditional 7 iron might be 36 or 37deg. These manufacturers know full well that the average person comes out of a club fitting thinking ‘Gee I hit those INSERT BRAND NAME HERE’s 9 iron(not knowing it is 38deg)just as far as INSERT BRAND NAME HERE’s 7 iron (nearly the same loft)… They must be the superior club!’

    This is completely deceitful and all it is accomplishing is moving the goal posts. I can’t wait until the day when we are all playing bag consisting of a Driver then a 21 deg 9iron, and then F, O, E, Q, J, X, A, G, P, S and L wedge. The only realistic way to get around this would be to label every club by degrees instead of a number or have industry regulations as to what loft within a degree, belongs on each iron. Then manufacturers would actually be able to sell the clubs due to the actual characteristics and engineering of the club eg.higher launch/steeper descent angle, more forgiving etc.

    One writer on WRX argued your same point just as poorly a few years ago after publishing an obvious paid advertisement/review/article by an OEM who had strengthened their lofts considerably in one line of irons and stating that they were revolutionary in terms of length.

    However , the only real objective way to compare clubs from a performance perspective is to eliminate as many of the variables as possible and making a decision from there. Same shaft, same flex, same loft, same ball and even as far as same grip and number of papers. However OEM’s knowing that their 8iron is actually a 6.5 iron and still marketing it as an 8 is taking advantage of Average Joe’s ignorance of what they are ACTUALLY hitting.

    FYI- I hit my F-Wedge further than your 4 iron 😉

    • Jeff

      Dec 3, 2022 at 11:36 pm

      1. Never going to get industry standards. Clubs, balls, shafts, etc. Different strokes for different fokes.
      2. Stamping/loft on an iron doesn’t work! We saw that did not work a few years back. I don’t want to have to pull out a piece of paper and match the number to the iron I am playing. That will certainly slow play and we already have that problem!!
      3.All OEM’s have on their web sites the specs of their irons. So they are not hiring their lofts
      4. Do you only buy one shirt color or pants color?

    • Jeff

      Dec 3, 2022 at 11:42 pm

      Paper? Did you mean wraps/tape?Looks like your advocating bifurification. Typo on previous email OEM’S not hiring their specs

    • Pickles

      Dec 6, 2022 at 11:42 pm

      Sandtrap, I’d guess we agree on more than disagree. Agreed, many buyers may get confused by loft changes over the last decade. But to be fair, lofts have been strengthening since the modern balata era. At one point, your “traditional” 37 degree 7 iron would’ve been considered strong.

      However, you are missing the main points from my post. The author contends that consumers are hurt because OEMs design short irons exactly as they do long irons. My rebuttal was that I disagreed that OEMs do this, giving examples of specific iron sets that contradict authors point.
      Additionally, I disagreed with the premise that irons should have an even spread of loft because loft’s impact on distance is correlated with speed. As speed decreases, so too does the impact of loft. Test for yourself, tweak a 64 degree wedge one degree and note the distance change. (Or go to the extreme and tweak your putter). Then tweak your driver a degree and note the change. Surely if you have access to a boutique club fitter you could obtain the data. All loft degrees are not equal, thus it is illogical to gap a set purely on loft. In my set, I don’t care what the number on the sole is, I care how far it goes. Happy to carry a 4iron as my longest, or a 2, whichever hits my number.

      FYI- funny quip about your f wedge. Afraid you’re probably overconfident tho; my college degree was free thanks to golf ?

  12. jamho3

    Nov 30, 2022 at 5:20 pm

    TK.

    I know this matches your club making agenda, but at the same time I still appreciate your being willing to take this on and spread the truth and this perspective. Keep it up.

  13. O_o

    Nov 30, 2022 at 2:48 pm

    Fittings over the last 4 years have shown me that the average golfer really isn’t interested in improving their game realistically anyway, and it’s obvious that these equipment companies know that. If hitting a 6 iron an extra 15 yards means something to Joe the 27 handicap, more power to him. Whatever makes you enjoy the game

    • Jeff

      Dec 3, 2022 at 11:45 pm

      I haven’t met anyone yet who wants to hit it shorter! Age will allow that to happen.LOL

  14. Common sense.

    Nov 30, 2022 at 2:42 pm

    Ego and salesmanship is the answer. You can sell a 130 yard pitching wedge alot easier than a 110 yard pw.

  15. Clayton

    Nov 30, 2022 at 2:14 pm

    I agree, but well thought out irons like my Mizuno 223 have a more “wedge like” 8 to Pw based off 46*. A bit strong but nothing crazy. That being said, I’m planning on reshafting some classic CB irons I have based off a 48* PW, bending them all a degree weak and seeing how I like that wider spread from 3 to PW, gaining a long iron slot but not losing my “GW” loft (49-51) that I use so much every round. It’ll just be called a PW again like it was in the 1990-2010s.

  16. Matts

    Nov 30, 2022 at 2:10 pm

    I agree that current modern day iron sets (4 iron to PW) have too many clubs with lofts less than forty degrees and often with only three or two and a half degrees of loft between clubs, for most average golfers. If you cannot hold a green with a long iron, you should change to a hybrid or a lofted fairway wood if those clubs can.

    • Matts

      Nov 30, 2022 at 2:21 pm

      To expand further, the golfer of average driver swing speed (90 to 95 mph) needs a WITB of driver, fairway wood/s, hybrid/s, irons and specialist wedges, meaning buying a set of irons (4I through PW) is wasteful because one should not be putting some of those irons in your bag.

  17. Pickles

    Nov 30, 2022 at 1:12 pm

    First, I don’t agree with the general argument because it’s circular. If loft is such a critical determinant, why should one care if their set is a 5-A instead of a 4-P? Even with your point about a 6 iron being so close to a 3 wood, why does that matter if it’s the longest iron in one’s bag (and how many people should even carry a 15 fairway anymore)?

    Second, a degree of loft doesn’t have a linear impact on distance relative to speed. As clubspeed decreases, more loft is required to impact distance. A degree of loft difference with a driver could account for 20 yards, a 59 degree wedge might only carry 3 yards further than a 60 degree. Surely this should impact one’s set makeup more than sticking to an arbitrary loft spread.

    Last the author argues that OEM’s make short irons the same as long. Unfortunately, OEM’s have been incorporating blended sets into one for a decade or more. Taylormade RBZ Tour, Titleist AP2, etc, have had game improvement tech in the long irons (slots, tungsten) with more basic/traditional short irons. This might not even be expressly necessary; as loft increases, the value of these game improvement aspects diminishes.

    • Cucumbers

      Dec 1, 2022 at 3:00 am

      Extremely well said

    • Livininparadise

      Dec 9, 2022 at 12:08 pm

      Pickles, yes.

      Kohler should know this and any article like this that does not give a brief overview of moden club design is disingenuous.

      In an effort to make clubs easier to hit, manufacturers have lowered the center of gravity. If traditional lofts were utilized, everyone would just pop the ball up, so lofts have to be dialed down. The result happens to be a club that does hit the ball further, but also is easier to hit. However, just because clubs are easier to hit does not take into consideration lack of practice and lack of overall ability. They players that have benefited from easier to hit clubs get closer to the green in regulation. However, talent gets the ball into the hole.

  18. Raj LP

    Nov 30, 2022 at 11:34 am

    This quest for low spin and distance has been interesting to me as well but I am a higher swing speed player so I have P770s which are a more traditional lofted. I find those go a specific distance more consistently. Whereas, the modern lofted irons gave me a pretty big variance on distance. I guess the manufacturers point is that, by moving COG lower, the trajectory of a longer shot will give it the same height and landing iron of a shorter iron. Hence, it enables lower swing speed hitters to reach greens further away and still hold them.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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