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Opinion & Analysis

2022 ISPS HANDA Australian Open: Betting Tips & Selections

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A mere glance down the list of winners tells you everything you need to know about the Australian Open.

It may revolve around a few different courses but no wonder the roll-call of Australian Open champions includes Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Adam Scott amongst others – sure, all class but also renowned links players. Top the list with Mark Calcavecchia, winner at Royal Sydney in 1988 and at the Open Championship at Troon a year later, and it’s clear what to expect.

This week’s tracks are as linksy as we will get in this part of the world. Victoria and Kingston Heath are sand-belt courses, with fast-running fairways and greens, and carefully placed bunkers. Think all the Melbourne form plus, of course, the Dunhill Links and The Open.

If you were on Cam Smith last week at 7/2, there is little harm in going in again.

The 29-year-old is clearly one of the top three players in the world right now, and has already showed his ability for this week’s test with the win at St. Andrews and at Brisbane last week, when he had all his main market rivals well behind.

Runner-up to Spieth at The Australian in 2016, he backed that up with a fourth and 10th place over the next two years before fading from a first-round top-10 back at the Sydney course in 2019.

If there are negatives, it’s that he now plays away from his home town, something that seemed worth a shot or two seven days ago, and the price.

At around 5/2, Smith has to win, and with much going on around him, it maybe he once falls short of expectations.

This is a unique test this year. For the first time, both the men’s and women’s championships are being held at the same time, played simultaneously on the two tracks. Whilst some players – Scott Hend, in particular – feel this lessens the uniqueness of each event, so much so he did not enter, the likes of Min Woo Lee and sister Minjee Lee couldn’t be happier.

The Lee siblings simply relish the challenge of playing against, or with, each other, and this format should bring back healthy memories of the recent runnings of the Victoria Open, held at 13th Beach Golf Links.

With under two years between their ages, Minjee just holds the upper hand. Her two majors and eight LPGA tour wins outstrip her younger brother’s pair of European wins, even if beating Matty Fitz at the Scottish Open is not far short of the top grade.

Whilst that is enough to think a dream each-way double is achievable, it is their form at those Sydney links that points to their chance this week.

Minjee has won twice, once as an amateur, while it took Min Woo a couple of years longer to gain a two-shot victory over Ryan Fox in 2020.

Current form of the 24-year-old works – three top-fives, a top-10 and a 12th place finish in five starts – and whilst his form in this event isn’t particularly eye-catching, his overall Aussie form shouts loudly.

Min Woo led the New South Wales Open in 2019 before fading on Sunday to finish third, before finishing in the same position behind Adam Scott at the Australian PGA a couple of weeks later.

The 2020 Vic Open was his only event in his home country in 2020, but he returned this year to finish fourth at both runnings of his home PGA, the Covid-delayed January event, and, of course, seven days ago.

It may seem that Min Woo has recently found form, but he was top-20 going into the final round at Brookline in June, 12th at the halfway mark at St. Andrews, seventh at the cut-mark on the Boise on the KFT, and came from out of the clouds (136th) after round one at Wentworth to finish just outside the top-40.

Currently in 61st on the world rankings, Min Woo will be looking to cement his place inside the top-50 and invites to all the top tournaments in 2023, and he’ll have no more incentive than to beat his sister.

“To have each other present will give us some motivation,” he told Golf Australia.

Cam Davis is another youngster that has to go well after an excellent top-10 at last week’s PGA. Clearly trending towards another victory, it was a coin toss between him and the selection. Whilst tempted to go ‘win only’ on each, the 27-year-old is just left out.

There were a couple of big-priced places at last week’s PGA, so away from the ‘names’, take a chance with Denzel Ieremia, a New Zealander who may be able to continue a fine run of form.

The 26-year-old has been mixing his trade on the Latinoamerica Tour as well as the Australasian, and all is with promise.

Making his way onto the PGA South American tour via his second place at q-school, he played nine times through the 2021/2 season, recording four cuts, with a best of fifth place in Peru. That is a decent start for the ex-Iowa Cyclone, who ended his college career with the third-best stroke average in school history.

It’s his form at home that catches the eye, though, with a sixth place (three behind Min Woo) at the 2019 New South Wales Open, followed by a top-five at this event at The Australian and a top-10 at the year-ending Australian PGA.

2020 saw the Wellington man finish top-10 at the Queensland PGA, a feat he almost repeated when 12th in that event a couple of weeks ago, plenty enough to gauge interest here, and yet just one of four consecutive results that give him claims of a big effort here this week.

Following the BUPA Tour Championship, Ieremia finished a closing fifth at the Western Australian Open, seventh at the Victorian PGA (held at Moonah Links, many times a host of the Australian Open) 12th at Queensland (top five at halfway) and last week 18th in Brisbane (again, top five at the cut mark).

Recommended Bets:

  • Min Woo Lee – Each-Way
  • Denzel Ieremia – Each Way
  • Denzel Ieremia – Top-20 (if available)
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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