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Opinion & Analysis

2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba: Outright Betting Picks

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1 year ago

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From Bermuda to Mexico, a well-worn path for the PGA Tour as it winds down towards the more novelty events on the approach to Christmas.

With five of the last six winners scoring 20-under or better (Patton Kizzire was just one off that total in 2017) it’s clear this 7000-yard-and-bits course is open to attack from these players, but it still needs a bit of thought.

Most of the contenders over the years point out that the key to being able to throw those darts is getting the ball on the fairway, and whilst that helps every week of the year, with the forecast rain and greens that will run slower than tour standard, there is a premium on good driving – as two-time champion Viktor Hovland said, “there’s a lot of trouble on both sides and being a straight driver and good off the tee, that helps me.”

Quality tee-to-green play is always the first on the list, but players hitting irons from the rough or worse, will find it tough to keep up the birdie chase. Look to Hovland again, this time for the perfect example.

When winning in 2020, the Norwegian saw his tee shot on the 72nd hole just stay on the short stuff – a yard wrong and he was in sand or the rough, and probably would not have given himself such a simple birdie opportunity, holed to beat a charging Aaron Wise (to the chagrin of myself amongst many others!)

Course comparisons are clear – look for those that excel in windy conditions, that constantly find greens, and are coming here with confidence in their putter. Simples.

I’m not sure what to make of former world number one Scottie Scheffler.

The 26-year-old went from the best player not to win a tournament to the best player in the world in the space of a few weeks, before cementing that position with a victory at the most traditional of indicators, the Masters.

Then it all went a bit tired. He should have won the Charles Schwab (former Mayakoba winner Brendon Todd and a certain Tony Finau split 3rd and 4th) to make it five wins in the season. He then had chances at the U.S Open at Brookline and at the final qualifier before the ‘big one’ (so the PGA Tour says), where he allowed an easy lead to slip right away, giving Rory McIlroy the impetus to reclaim the top spot, rightly as it turned out, after his recent run.

Scheffler now comes off a recent outing at the CJ Cup, where again he was thrashed by McIlroy and many of the rivals he faces this week.

If he’s a ‘no’ that leaves dual defending champion Hovland, the afore-mentioned Wise, Collin Morikawa and Aaron Wise to fill the market at 20-1 and less.

Hovland makes obvious appeal and there is little to argue against bar his single-figure price. Morikawa’s putting has returned to the disastrous figures of his early career and Wise just sees too short for his win record.

Sitting brightly amongst those is Tony Finau and, despite the lack of a recent outing, he is easily the highlight of the week.

Where to start? The 33-year-old finally shook off his own Puerto Rico curse when winning the 3M Open, in the process beating Emiliano Grillo (three top-10s here) and followed up a week later when waltzing home at the Rocket Mortgage Classic by five shots from the elite Patrick Cantlay, sixth here in 2019.

I fancied him to get the hat-trick at the FedEx St.Jude after leading the tee-to-green stats by a mile over the previous fortnight, but he could never recover from some wayward driving. Still, an ever-present fifth place is hardly tear-inducing.

After an opening 77, the BMW Championship was a washout and he may well have been feeling the efforts of the previous month when again starting slowly at East Lake before a best-of-Sunday 64 launched him inside the top-10.

That eye-catching effort was surely a prompt to be on him when he re-appeared and I have no problem with the two-month break given he was runner up at the Mexico Open three weeks after The Masters and seems to have had a jolly good time in the interim.

Apart from elite form over the last few months, Finau finished his season ranked 12th for approaches, fifth for greens-in-regulation and in the same position for tee-to-green, all aspects that give him that look of Hovland, no bad thing here.

Previous years have seen the ‘Big Break’ graduate finish in the top echelons for all those vital statistics – it has been a constant, but he now adds confidence with the putter, a facet that has seen him ranked in the top-20 in six of his last nine completed outings.

From six outings at El Chamaleon, he has two top-10 finishes and one 16th and is, of course, a far better player now.

Relevant course comparison form includes a pair of runner-up finishes at Riviera, linking him with winners Hovland and Kuchar, while you can add 2019 winner Todd to those two for form at the Pheonix Country Club and the Charles Schwab.

Farmers sees his form sit alongside efforts from Hovland (again) and 2012 champion John Huh, who turns up at only half-a-dozen courses each year whilst Hovland also won this after Puerto Rico, another 20-under track. And on and on.

Leaving the salivation over Finau’s chances, much of the rest of the field looks limited in their chance to beat the top half-dozen.

However, I’ll back up the main selection with a smaller wager on Tom Hoge, a player who has found his level over the past couple of years after looking as if he would become a journeyman, clocking up the dollars with the odd top-10.

 

Life changed with the victory at Pebble Beach in February, when he beat proven costal player Jordan Spieth, Cantlay (4th) and Matt Fitzpatrick (6th) but it was possibly telegraphed with his fifth at Torrey Pines, third at the Sony in Hawaii, two top-10s at Sea Island and front page finishes in Texas and three times at the Barracuda.

The victory was a step up for the 33-year-old but he has kept up that level of form with top10 at the US PGA, 3M, Tour Champpionship, Shriners and Zozo. The 13th place finish at the CJ Cup meant Hoge had now five top-13 payouts from the same amount of events.

Returning to the course at which he was third in 2020, Hoge has that fine mix of course form mixed with improving current form, all based on the quality of his iron play for which he ranks around 10th on average for his last six completed starts.

Whilst we can surmise Finau’s current form, Hoge is already showing up on the 2022/2023 wraparound stats – sixth in greens-in-regulation, 20th for tee-to-green – whilst over three months he is 11th for all-round ranking, the highlights being 23rd for greens, and 19th for putting average.

Do that this week and he contends strongly.

34-year-old Jason Day completes the trio of each-way bets this week.

Despite his many issues – withdrawals through injury or illness and personal tragedy – the Australian has somehow come through and, whilst he may never approach his former number one ranking, looks on his way to getting somewhere inside the top-50 and those all-important invites to the majors.

It seems as if Day has been around forever but surely because he was a constant on the leaderboards of all the majors – second, third, fifth and 10th at the Masters, four-time runner-up and three top-10s at the US Open, and the sole major victory and five top-10s at the US PGA – impressive stuff!

History dictates he is plenty good enough to be winning an event like this, and recent evidence also suggests getting on before he does finally get over the line once again, adding to his 12 PGA Tour wins.

After years of back problems, Day bounced back to form at the Farmers in January, when he couldn’t hold on to a third-round lead, missing the play-off by a single shot. Still, this was encouraging to say the least, and Day was happy:

“The last couple years have been a bit of a struggle,” he told Golf Digest “But I think more so it’s a real positive, not only personally with my back and then when I get on the golf course I feel good.”

Clearly, the enforced slower and gentler swing has done the trick, although he admits it’s by necessity, ” The good thing is I need to work on my swing because if I don’t then certain things can creep in and I can hurt my back again. So I’ve got to always be cautious of that.”

Since that bronze medal, the two-time Torrey Pines winner has finished 15th at the Wells Fargo, top-20 at the Rocket Mortgage and recently eighth at the Shriners and 11th at the CJ Cup, where at both events he was better as the event wore on.

He went birdie-crackers during the last round at Las Vegas, and whilst the CJ Cup probably asked too much of his driving, he ranked 11th in approaches, 19th tee-to-green and also for putting. At both Day also found greens-in-reg and was smart around the greens.

The easy 2015 PGA champion looks to be close, and at the prices, looks well worth the chance to prove it.

Finally, take a chance with arrow-straight Greyson Sigg to land the top-10/top-20 bets.

Much of what is good was written around 11 months ago in the 2022 Players To Watch column, but it’s worth re-iterating that the 27-year-old was one of a host of top-class KFT graduates from the Lockdown years, something that may have disguised his individual talent.

The two-time KFT winner, including the Knoxville Open – an event that Patton Kizzire (2017 Mayakoba champ) has won – has taken his time to show his best on the main stage, but his best includes a top-10 behind Finau at Twin Cities and at the Sanderson Farms, where he came from 25th overnight courtesy of a final round 67 on a tough Sunday.

At last week’s Barracuda Championship, the former Bulldog lay in eight after the first round and sixth going into payday but, on another tough final day, a one-over 72 was still plenty enough to finish in 11th, his fifth cut in a row.

Sigg simply cannot compete on the big tracks, ranking well outside the top-120 over the last three months, so look for him on all the circa-6800/7000 yard tournaments, as we have here this week,  a course on which he recorded the joint-lowest round of the Sunday with a 64 last year.

Recommended Bets:

  • Tony Finau WIN 
  • Tom Hoge WIN
  • Jason Day WIN/TOP-5/TOP-10
  • Greyson Sigg Top-10 
  • Greyson Sigg Top-20 
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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

2 days ago

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Apr 18, 2024

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

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2 days ago

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Apr 18, 2024

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In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

5 days ago

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Apr 15, 2024

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Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions. 

Past Winners at Harbour Town

  • 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
  • 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
  • 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
  • 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
  • 2019: CT Pan (-12)
  • 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
  • 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
  • 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
  • 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
  2. Tom Hoge (+1.27)
  3. Corey Conners (+1.16)
  4. Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
  5. Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (88.8%)
  2. Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
  3. Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
  4. Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
  5. Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
  3. Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
  4. Brian Harman (+1.89)
  5. Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
  2. Taylor Moore (+1.02)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
  4. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
  5. Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

  1. Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
  3. Corey Conners (+69.0%)
  4. Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
  5. Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up. 

Course History over past 24 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
  2. Cam Davis (+2.05)
  3. J.T. Poston (+1.69)
  4. Justin Rose (+1.68)
  5. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

  1. Shane Lowry
  2. Russell Henley
  3. Scottie Scheffler
  4. Xander Schauffele
  5. Corey Conners 
  6. Wyndham Clark
  7. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  8. Matt Fitzpatrick
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Ludvig Aberg 

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past.  In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks. 

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at. 

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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