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2022 Portugal Masters: Betting Picks & Selections

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The DP World Tour arrives in Vilamoura for the 16th consecutive year and, has been the case for several years, it is host to more than just the eventual champion.

As in Mallorca last weekend, the pressure is mounting on those around 117th on the DP World rankings, with only those on and above that number certain to keep their playing privileges. And it can be awfully tight.

Take Darius Van Driel, at the cut before the Mallorca Golf Open. Sitting pretty with 18 holes to go, a five-over 76 saw him drop just one place, but enough to lose the one hand he had on his ‘card’ and meaning he is under the gun to perform this week.

On the other side, Jazz Janewattananond’s 17th hole birdie may well have been the difference between going into this week at 116, a rise of 11 places in a space of days.

Even those safe from Q-school have their nerves tested, with only the top-60 having the chance to play the Nedbank Challenge next week, and the final 50 going on to the lucrative DP World Tour Championship starting on the 17th November.

For some, they will be thankful that the Dom Pedro track isn’t too taxing a task, the open nature of the resort course lending itself to an average winning score over the past five years of around 20-under.

They will have to putt well, but aggressive play will give a host of chances on a course that can call on the defence of the wind and little else.

Looking at past winners, names such as Padraig Harrington, Tom Lewis (twice), George Coetzee, Lucas Bjerregaard, Shane Lowry and even Alvaro Quiros point heavily to those with form in Qatar, Dubai, Sicily, Morocco and Dunhill Links. Point them out, let them go, and see who rolls the rock the best.

Nicolai Hojgaard  20/1 Win

Twins are the theme of the DP World Tour this year.

 

Not only do we have the two Danes, now winners of five tournaments between them at this level, but now Yannik Paul becomes the first of the German duo to win on any of the major tours, in doing so beating Nicolai and Rasmus by six and eight shots, respectively.

Despite going the wrong way on Sunday, Rasmus, alongside fellow withdrawal Thomas Pieters, has done enough to be at the finale, leaving his brother to prove the best bet of the week and launch himself up from a current 67th.

Whilst Nic’s second victory, at Ras Al Khaimah, came after a pair of missed-cuts, his dominating maiden win in Italy came after a T21 at links track Hillside, and 17th at the very relevant Czech Masters, when he lay in the top-10 going into payday.

Spookily (it is Halloween after all), current form is 37th at Valderrama – a course that should not suit at all but could be said to be linksy tricky at a push – followed by last weekend’s 16th, when he was again on the front page of the leaderboard going into payday.

Top-10 off-the-tee last week sits nicely with a putting average in the top-five, a perfect combination for a challenge that seems very similar to that which faced him at the Marco Simone Club, where he led off the tee and in tee-to-green, as he did when winning in the UAE from Jordan Smith in 24-under.

The 21-year-old was fourth in last season’s finale and will rightly want to join his brother in the select field.

When runner-up last year Nicolai was fifth off the tee, 12th in approaches, second in tee-to-green and top-15 for putting. It all looks as if it is lining up nicely for a similar attack, and one that could be rewarded.

Tom Lewis 45/1 Win/Top-5/Top-10

 

I’ll have to mention Eddie Pepperell as he is actually top of the list for the numbers formula, and I hope that he doesn’t almost nick it like last week’s listing number one -Kurt Kitayama – did!

For me, he is too occupied with making waves against the LIV tour on Twitter, so, after plenty of thought, he is just left out in favour of Tom Lewis, who calls himself after such excellent course form and some sneaky recent figures.

Portugal figures repeat an awful lot, with many regular contenders (including Pepperell) posting two, three or more top-10 finishes. Nobody is quite like 2020 winner George Coetzee, who won here on the bridle, and whose Dom Pedro record is a win, five top-10s, and a pair of top-20 finishes in just 12 starts, but the Englishman is the only player to have won twice here so probably trumps the lot, especially having won here on just his third ever start as a professional.

After looking as if he would go to the very top, the 31-year-old probably hasn’t helped himself over the last couple of years, flitting between the Korn Ferry and PGA Tours alongside his home events though it is noticeable just which tournaments he showed up in through 2019 and 2020.

Whilst he won the 2019 KFT Tour Championship by five shots, the best of the rest includes ninth at Abu Dhabi, third at Saudi, 11th at The Open, fifth at the Dunhill Links, eighth here, and a tied-13th and 6th through the same final two events as he would have faced here. In fact, sitting in 152nd on the rankings, he probably needs something of a miracle to even keep his card, but if he is going to show something, it will be here.

The Florida resident is very hard to read – note that runner-up to Justin Thomas at St. Jude 2020 – but has shown with a 13th at the shortened Czech event and top-16s in Denmark and Italy that he will compete when conditions are right.

Over the last three months, Lewis ranks top-30 for ball-striking for the tour, 16th in greens-in-regulation, and 35th for scrambling, whilst last week in Mallorca, he was top-15 in tee-to-green and led the around-the-green stats.

Often wild from the tee-box, the 2011 and 2018 champion will once again be at home at a favoured course, and if there is anyone that can show there is something behind the maxim “Horses for Courses,” it should be the former junior star.

Jeff Winther Win/Top-10/Top-20

This section of the market is tough to split.

All of Dale Whitnell, Janewattananond and Lukas Nemecz caught the eye last week, but even though the Austrian has exemption after his victory in Mallorca last year, he will be glad of launching himself up inside the top-90 after an excellent defence of his title and his best finish of the year so far.

Despite being beaten a long way at the 2016 Tshwane Open 2016, Winther’s runner-up to Charl Schwartzel reads very well given Coetzee has won that event twice, whilst top-10s in Abu, Qatar, and in the Czech Republic point to what should be suitability to this track.

Sadly, the 34-year-old hasn’t clicked at the Dom Pedro missing the cut three times in four starts, the last of those in 2019, two years before his breakthrough at this level.

There is nothing spectacular about the Austrian’s play. He is steady, accurate and putts very well, finding over four shots on the greens in Denmark, seven in France, the same at Valderrama and nearly three last week. Those last two might suggest he needs it tougher, but he shot two rounds of 62 when recording a 15-under total at Santa Ponsa last year and conditions should be fairly similar this week.

In a section of the market that finds it hard to win, Winther comes off four rounds in the 60s last week, pointing to him being close to his best, and that should be enough to land a top-10 at least.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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