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2022 Andalucia Masters: Betting Tips & Selections

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Voted one of the best golf courses in the world, Valderrama has built its reputation on being one of the most challenging places a player can tee up a golf ball.

Blind tee-shots (aim at the tree), winding and oak-lined fairways, falling acorns and small, undulating greens, the Sotogrande track has a host of defences.

2020 champion John Catlin looked battered and bruised as he fought off an equally war-torn Martin Kaymer, whilst subsequent U.S Open winner, Matt Fitzpatrick, positively revelled in grinding his way to a three-shot win over last week’s Spanish Open third, Min Woo Lee.

The 7000 yard course is clearly one to be careful on – and personally, it is the best event on the DP World Tour – but the bombers have had some success here, with Ryan Fox and Wilco Nienaber able to club down and use strength to work their way around.

With the weather set fair, the tough greens could be hard to hold, forcing scramblers to the fore, and giving justice to the nickname “The Augusta of Europe.”

Fabrizio Zanotti – Win /Top-5

Yannik Paul – Win/Top-5

Adrian Otaegui – Win/Top-5/Top-10 

Julien Brun – Top-10/Top-20 

Like Xander at the Zozo, Matt Fitzpatrick is a deserved favourite this week.

Clear on world rankings, Fitz’s game is perfectly suited to working his way around this tight track, and having shown up in scrambling and putting stats in far better quality fields, could easily ‘do a Rahm’ and win this easily when it counts.

Three of the last six winners have started at 80/1 or longer, so whilst the favourite is bound to be popular and in each-way doubles across the card, Martin Kaymer looked home when head-to-head against Catlin and failed. It’s not that hard to see someone just grind it out again.

Seven of the last 11 winners ranked in the top-20 for greens-in-regulation, meaning less pressure on the chipping to the often fast, tricky greens, so it makes prefect sense to start the card with Fabrizio Zanotti who ranks sixth in that discipline over the last three months.

In fact, the Paraguayan is finding it quite simple to seek the short stuff, leading the way for total accuracy, ranking sixth in driving accuracy, and top 12 for ball-striking and on the par-fours.

In-between missed weekends at St. Andrews (not his track) and in Italy, the 39-year-old finished top-20 yet again at Crans, Himmerland and Wentworth, all with their own individual nuances, and all with some link to recent contenders here.

Both Catlin and Fitzpatrick won here after missing the cut on debut, and Zanotti’s record reads far better – a bit like Graeme McDowell’s in 2010 – with four cuts from five, the best effort being last season’s fourth place when he improved every round.

This won’t be about birdie-chasing, so this two-time winner, who also contended in Malaysia, Portrush, Hilversum in his time, can stick around for much of the four days.

In a similar vein, Adrian Otaegui appears too big based on his modus operandi.

Considering driving accuracy, greens-in-reg and scrambling, the 29-year-old home player ranks in the top half-dozen of the field, yet can be backed nearer the 20th most likely.

Although winner of three tournaments, two of those were in match-play format, showing he has the bottle to win when head-to-head, and the win at the Scottish Championship came courtesy of book-ender rounds of 62 and 63. Having won at Fairmont, he has since made every weekend in Scotland, peaking with a third place at the same course, whilst his major amateur victory was in Kilmarnock.

Otaegui tends to repeat in places he does well in, such as Dubai, Ireland and Qatar, so his course form of four cuts from five that includes best finishes of 12th and 17th (sixth after three rounds) is encouraging enough.

I’m not certain that flirting as a rag in a trio of LIV events was of any use besides the money, but he returned from Boston to finish 13th at the shortened PGA at Wentworth, 25th in Italy after a slow start, and 13th in France. At all, he ranked highly in accuracy and scrambling. Perfect.

Take away the missed-cut at the Alfred Dunhill Links and he may be the best of the home contingent in an event that rewards Spanish players with Sergio Garcia winning three times, and three Spaniards finishing joint-runner-up behind Christian Bezuidenhout in 2019.

28-year-old Yannik Paul can take revenge on the course for former German hero Martin Kaymer, who lost out narrowly to Catlin in the ultimate grind a couple of years ago.

Like the Hojgaards, Yannik and his twin brother, Jeremy, play on similar tours, last week finishing three shots apart at Club De Campo, and Yannik is proving by far the most consistent through this season.

 

After six top-10s on the Challenge Tour last season, Yannik finished with a one-shot defeat by Marcus Helligkilde at the season-ending Grand Final, and therefore qualifying for the top league.

A few weeks later, the former University of Colorado student finished top-10 in the rain-affected Joburg Open before top-10s at the ISPS Handa at the Infinitum course, Tarragona (Otaegui in second) and subsequently joint-runner-up at Soudal in Belgium (see Otaegui again, tied with Ryan Fox, with form around Valders).

Recent form is again encouraging, with a pair of eighth place finishes in his last three starts, in France and Spain again, whilst the missed cut that sits in-between the two was courtesy of an 81 in the horrendous conditions of a Friday at the Dunhill Links.

Rather like a pro golfer on the tee, don’t look at the nasty stuff, look at the positives, and 68 and 67 for two of the three rounds of the rotation in Scotland are perfectly acceptable, giving him a recent set of very acceptable results that include a top-20 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship.

Yannik is improving all the time, has good tee-to-green figures, ranks 10th in greens and 33rd for scrambling over the last three months, and can land his fifth top-10 in Spain from eight starts.

Julien Brun has been much fancied for much of this season and whilst he hasn’t converted yet, is showing enough to think he can reward top-20 backers.

Whilst I wouldn’t usually go for someone with average driving figures, and certainly not around Valders, the three-time Challenge Tour winner somehow gets it to the short stuff and is currently ranking around 40th in the charts for the last 12 weeks. There is something there, and having drifted in the market over the last few weeks, why not take the chance at this idiosyncratic track?

Pick of the Frenchman’s efforts in 2022 have been 25th in Abu Dhabi (3rd at halfway), top-15 at Ras, Kenya and at the MyGolf Life Open, a closing eight place finish at The Belfry, and top-20s at Crans and Le Golf National, suggesting he can handle a bit of trickery.

Add in his efforts in Spain at one level down – 1/2/9/11/12/20 in eight starts – and it is just a matter of time before he rewards long-suffering backers with an each-way return. This week, I’ll play it a touch safer.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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