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Opinion & Analysis

2022 RBC Heritage: Outright Bets

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Just a short two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA Tour heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina to play the 2022 RBC Heritage. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on PGA Tour.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par 71 course measuring 7,121 yards and features Bermuda-grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs protecting it from “bomb and gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 138 golfers. It may quite possibly be the best field in RBC Heritage history when it has been at this point in the schedule.

Some notable golfers in the field are Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Joaquin Niemann, Daniel Berger, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sungjae Im.

2022 RBC Outright Bets

Corey Conners (+2500):

Conners has been putting it all together of late and seems to be trending towards his second career PGA Tour victory. The Canadian threatened to win the WGC Dell Match Play a few weeks ago before losing in the semifinals to a red-hot Kevin Kisner. He followed that performance up with an incredibly impressive performance last week at Augusta National finishing in a tie for sixth place. In a week where all of the best players in the world were seemingly making big numbers left and right, Conners’ steady play was exceptional. He shot 70-73-72-70 in large part due his ability to control the golf ball in any and all conditions.

Recent winners have all excelled in hitting greens in regulation. That is great news for Conners, considering he ranks first in his past 24 rounds in greens in regulation in this star-studded field. In many ways, Harbour Town is the perfect course for the 30-year-old. He is remarkably accurate both off of the tee and with his irons. With the course having the second smallest greens on Tour, his precision will pay dividends.

Conners has already proven he likes the course, having finished fourth here last year. That week, he gained 8.1 strokes from tee to green and 2 strokes with the putter. Both statistics and the eye test say his putter is starting to come around, which would be the only aspect of his game holding him back from being robed in a plaid jacket Sunday evening.

Daniel Berger (+2800) (Bet365):

At times, golf can be an incredibly difficult sport to predict. With a wide range of potential outcomes in every tournament, narrowing down the winner is never an easy task. With that fact being acknowledged, Daniel Berger’s success has been somewhat predictable in the past.

All four of Berger’s PGA Tour victories have come at relatively short courses. TPC Southwind (two wins), Colonial Country Club, and Pebble Beach Golf Links are all courses that do not require distance off the tee and reward sharp iron play. In his past 36 rounds, the Florida State University product ranks first in the field in courses that are under 7,200 yards. Harbour Town Golf Links fits that description as it is a par 71 measuring 7,121 yards. Unsurprisingly, Berger has excelled at the course in the past with a 13th place finish last year, and a 3rd place finish in 2020.

Berger also arrives at Harbour Town in solid form. Among his six stroke play starts this season, he has finished in the top 20 in four of them including two finishes in the top five. At a course with the second smallest greens on Tour, spectacular iron play is going to be more important than ever. The 29-year-old is a remarkably consistent iron player, and ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 50 rounds.

Berger has shown he is capable of winning in strong fields when the course suits him, and Harbour Town seems to be an ideal spot for him to earn his 5th PGA Tour victory.

Billy Horschel (+4500) (DraftKings): 

“Billy Ho” is having an excellent 2022 season. The former Florida Gator is seven for seven in made cuts and finished in second place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before making a nice run at the WGC- Dell Match Play.

Speaking of the Match Play (which Horschel won in 2021), Austin Country Club is a Pete Dye design like Harbour Town. Both courses require a great deal of strategy and accuracy, which suit Horschel’s strengths. Another similar course to Harbour Town is Sedgefield Country Club, which is arguably Horschel’s favorite course on Tour. He finished in second place there in 2020 and had only one finish outside of the top 11 in his last five trips.

The 35-year-old ranked ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach at The Masters last week which shows me he is in good form considering Augusta National is a course that really doesn’t lend itself to what Billy does best.

Due to the strong field this week, mid-tier players with real equity have slipped down the betting board a bit. Horschel is a great value bet this week and has a real shot to contend.

Kevin Kisner (+5500) (DraftKings):

In his past two starts on Pete Dye tracks, Kevin Kisner has finished 4th at THE PLAYERS Championship which features arguably the best field in golf, and runner up to Scottie Scheffler at the WGC-Dell Technolgies Match Play. “Kiz” will be the first to tell you he has a tough time competing with the big hitters at long courses, but when he gets to one of his spots he has as good a chance as anyone.

Harbour Town is a strategic golf course that requires golfers to make smart decisions. Kisner excels on those types of tracks and comes into the week feeling confident knowing that he’s playing a course that he can win at. Kisner has struggled here the past few years but has finished 2nd here back in 2015. He comes into the week with strong form and if his game is clicking on all cylinders, he can go toe to toe with anyone in the field.

Si Woo Kim (+6500) (DraftKings):

I was a bit surprised when I saw Si Woo Kim at +6500 this week. Yes, the field is stronger than we usually see at the RBC Heritage, but this track is as perfect as it gets for the South Korean. Kim has three PGA Tour victories, and all three are on Pete Dye designed courses. He also has had great results on this particular Dye track, as he narrowly lost in a playoff here to Satoshi Kodaira here in 2018. He also had a close call at the Wyndham Championship, which is a similar course to Harbour Town with a great deal of leaderboard crossover.

Kim has had a solid but unspectacular 2022 thus far, and a win this week would help jump start his case for this year’s Presidents Cup.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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