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The 22 players who can win the Masters

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Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 20-25 players.

Last year, Hideki Matsuyama was one of my 21 players who could win the Masters. Matsuyama was at 45/1 odds. The top-5 in last year’s event consisted of three players that were shortlisted (Rahm, Leishman and Spieth). The other 2 players that finished in the top-5 were filtered out as Will Zalatoris was a first time invitee and Xander Schauffele was hitting the ball too low at the time of the event. In total 19 of the 23 players I shortlisted made the cut with 14 of the shortlisted players finishing in the top-25 and 6 “shortlisters” in the top-10.

The projected “critical holes” for the tournament are #8, #11, #13, and #15. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores.

The 15th hole, Firethorn, should be considered the most pivotal hole on the course as over the last five Masters the top finishers in the event have gained 0.414 strokes per round on the hole.

Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in the inaugural event

Sam Burns
Cameron Davis
Talor Gooch
Austin Greaser (a)
Stewart Hagestad (a)
Lucas Herbert
Garrick Higgo
Harry Higgs
Tom Hoge
Aaaron Jarvis (a)
Min Woo Lee
Guido Migliozzi
Keiti Nakajima (a)
James Piot (a)
Seamus Power
Laird Shepherd (a)
JJ Spaun
Sepp Straka
Harold Varner III

Out of the group of first-time invitees and amateurs I like Sam Burns, Tom Hoge, and Sepp Straka’s chances to get into contention.

I filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.

Fred Couples
Bernhard Langer
Sandy Lyle
Larry Mize
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir

Next up, I filtered out those players that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week. Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week.

Cameron Champ
Bryson DeChambeau
Takumi Kanaya
K.H. Lee
Lee Westwood

And let’s filter out those players that have never made the cut at the Masters as outside of their inaugural event and Fuzzy Zoeller’s victory there has never been a winner who had not made the cut at the Masters prior to winning.

Max Homa
Hudson Swafford
Erik Van Rooyen
Matthew Wolff

The weather and the Zach Johnson debate

Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.

The weather this week may give the shorter hitters a better chance. Former champion, Mike Weir, has said that he felt that the wet conditions helped him win the Green Jacket in 2003 because it allowed him to hold long approach shots onto the greens. And if the wind picks up, it may neutralize the advantage the long hitters have on the par-5’s.

This week’s weather is calling for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday, then the winds picking up on Thursday to 15 mph and 20+ mph on Friday. It will be cool (by Masters standards) on Saturday with a high of 60-degrees and winds forecasted at 17 mph.

When the winds pick up the short game around the green becomes more important because players are likely to hit fewer greens in regulation. But historically there has not been many strokes gained around the greens of Augusta due to the difficulty of the green surrounds. If the weather does play out as projected, it may favor players who are exceptional around the greens slightly, but will more likely eliminate poor performers around the greens from winning unless they have a legendary ballstriking performance.

Having said that, I still believe that it won’t be enough for short hitters to get into contention, so I filtered out these players

Abraham Ancer
Christiaan Bezudienhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Brian Harman
Zach Johnson
Kevin Kisner
Kevin Na
Patrick Reed

Trajectory also has a strong predictive value in terms of winners. Simply put, there are not many low ball hitters (at the time of their victory) that won the Green Jacket and the better players of their era that were low ball hitters typically struggled at the Masters compared to other majors.

Last year I filtered out 14 players for hitting the ball too low and outside of Xander Schauffele (t-3rd finish) none of the players finished in the top-25. Furthermore, Schauffele was just narrowly filtered out for hitting the ball too low as I use a formula based on Apex Height, Launch Angle, Carry Distance and Spin Rate to filter out players for hitting the ball too low. I tweaked the formula a little after last year’s Masters and found that Schauffele would have made it thru the filter with the new formula.

Based on the new formula, the following players were filtered out for hitting it too low

Daniel Berger
Paul Casey
Corey Conners
Lucas Glover
Russell Henley
Si Woo Kim
Adam Scott
Jordan Spieth
Danny Willett

Spieth’s newfound low trajectory was surprising to me, but not as much as Adam Scott who is well known for traditionally being a high ball player. Out of the group I do like Russell Henley’s chances as well as he’s a great iron player and he currently ranks 27th in Strokes Gained – Around the Green and that may be helpful if the winds greatly impact play this week.

When people think about Augusta National they think of the greens and the crazy speeds and putts the competitors can have. However they mistakenly think that the winner is always decided by the putter. 12 of the last 13 winners have hit at least 49 greens in regulation and shots from 175-225 yards are where most of the strokes are gained and lost at the Masters.

Therefore the following players were filtered out for their performance this season from 175-225 yards

Patrick Cantlay
Stewart Cink
Sergio Garcia
Padraig Harrington
Billy Horschel
Mackenzie Hughes
Marc Leishman
Rory McIlroy
Francesco Molinari
Louis Oosthuizen
Thomas Pieters
Justin Rose
Charl Schwartzel
Gary Woodland
Cameron Young

I made a specific point to filter out Rory McIlroy here instead of filtering him out for missing the cut at the Valero Texas Open as McIlroy has uncharacteristically struggled this season from 175-225 yards. He currently ranks 172nd out of 210 players from 175-225 yards.

Oosthuizen, Leishman, and Rose were narrowly filtered out for their performance from 175-225 yards.

I also filtered out two former Masters champions

Bubba Watson
Tiger Woods

Watson has barely played enough to derive any meaningful analysis from and Tiger hasn’t played in nearly 18 months coming off a horrific car wreck and we still don’t know if he is going to play. Anything could happen, but I think the likelihood is very low that either will win the Green Jacket.

That leaves us with 22 players that can win the Masters

Tony Finau (66/1)
Tommy Fleetwood (80/1)
Tyrrell Hatton (66/1)
Viktor Hovland (20/1)
Sungjae Im (66/1)
Dustin Johnson (16/1)
Brooks Koepka (18/1)
Jason Kokrak (100/1)
Luke List (150/1)
Shane Lowry (50/1)
Robert MacIntyre (125/1)
Hideki Matsuyama (40/1)
Collin Morikawa (18/1)
Joaquin Niemann (50/1)
Ryan Palmer (150/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Xander Schauffele (25/1)
Scottie Scheffler (14/1)
Webb Simpson (150/1)
Cameron Smith (14/1)
Justin Thomas (12/1)
Will Zalatoris (33/1)

My top-10 picks are

Brooks Koepka, (18/1)
Shane Lowry (50/1)
Robert MacIntyre (125/1)
Collin Morikawa (18/1)
Joaquin Niemann (50/1)
Jon Rahm (12/1)
Scottie Scheffler (14/1)
Cameron Smith (14/1)
Justin Thomas (12/1)
Will Zalatoris (33/1)

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

21 Comments

21 Comments

  1. Tony P

    Apr 11, 2022 at 3:26 pm

    Man your picks were so solid. Used your list as a guide for my masters pool and crushed it. Nice work!!

  2. Jim

    Apr 10, 2022 at 10:14 pm

    Nice work! Won my Master’s pool with your list. Keeping this one to myself around those guys!

  3. Justin Oliver

    Apr 10, 2022 at 6:56 pm

    You won me my masters pool with this article man it was brilliant

  4. John Garcia

    Apr 9, 2022 at 1:24 am

    I thought I’d check this out after the cut Friday evening. 19 of your 22 made the cut, only Koepka, List, and R. Palmer didn’t make it. 9 of your top 10 made the cut, Koepka being the lone miss. You have the leader, 4 of the top 5, and 10 of the top 15. Amazing. I hope to see more of these!!

  5. Taz

    Apr 7, 2022 at 8:44 pm

    Great article with lots of detail and insight. How come you don’t have DJ as a top 10 but have Zallatoris? DJ has the long ball, short game and putter compared to Will. To top it, DJ has won before.

    • Richie Hunt

      Apr 8, 2022 at 11:52 am

      DJ hasn’t played a lot recently and had some issues from 150-175 yards. 150-175 yards isn’t a major filter, but when I get down to the top-10 I factor that in a little more. Having said that, DJ has usually been a very good wind player.

  6. HR Fernández

    Apr 7, 2022 at 12:12 am

    This is the best article I have read in GWRX in a long time, hands down.

    Excellent analysis!

    • CT Gonza'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''lez

      Apr 13, 2022 at 1:48 pm

      if thats true^, then you are extremely unintelligent… thanks for showing your ignorance yet again Senora Ferna”””””””””””””””””””””””””’ndez!!!!!!!!!!!

  7. Rk

    Apr 6, 2022 at 9:52 pm

    Best article on WRX year in and year out

  8. Alex Laflamme

    Apr 6, 2022 at 2:29 pm

    Really interesting process. Thanks for sharing!

  9. reeder

    Apr 6, 2022 at 12:34 pm

    Interesting article describing how you narrowed down your list to a final 22/10. I would agree with many of your picks. Thanks for compiling the list and writing the article.

  10. Krip

    Apr 6, 2022 at 11:28 am

    Zalatoris was a tough exclusion in my selection. He can’t put.

  11. Not Andrew Eisner

    Apr 6, 2022 at 8:43 am

    Rich, I always enjoy this column. I would love to know YOUR GUY, though. Which guy passes through all the filters and feels like the guy with the best chance to take it home?

  12. William Bryngnäs

    Apr 6, 2022 at 6:55 am

    You filter out ”Low traj players” but then you still end up with Fleetwood, McIntyre, Lowry & Niemann?

  13. Horton

    Apr 5, 2022 at 4:26 pm

    The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in the inaugural event

    Horton Smith says you might want to check your facts…..Gene thinks you for the additional major…

    • Adams

      Apr 6, 2022 at 10:17 pm

      Not sure I would trust a Masters researcher who thinks Sarazen won the first masters. Can’t understand why Arnold Palmer isn’t on his short list…

  14. Mark

    Apr 5, 2022 at 1:30 pm

    I’m surprised that Koepka is a top 10 pick for you considering he didn’t make the cut last year. What’s your reasoning behind that pick?

    • Not Rich Hunt

      Apr 5, 2022 at 2:29 pm

      He was hurt last year when he missed the cut.

      • Ron

        Apr 5, 2022 at 4:27 pm

        He’s a **** spouting off movie lines and assaulting people holding phones this year and deserves to miss the cut.

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 5, 2022 at 5:09 pm

      It was last year. Things change. He passed thru each of the filters easily and has played well in the Masters before.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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