19th Hole

2021 Joburg Open Betting Picks & Selections

Published

2 years ago

Nov 24, 2021

The welcome to the DP World Tour may not be the fanfare that organisers were hoping for, but viewers are in for a visual treat over the next three weeks, as the Sunshine Tour co-sanction three events that give true meaning to the phrase ‘natural beauty’.

Away from the actual play, Randpark, the Gary Player, and Leopard Creek give commentator Tony Johnstone a chance to gush over the delights of his homeland, a true listening pleasure for those lucky to receive it.

These previews are not intended to be the formal structure of many, so straight into it.

The Joburg Open itself has taken in various sites, including using Firethorn’s sister course Bushwillow, but this year will use just the hardest track on the course. At altitude, the official 7500-plus yards course plays nowhere near that length and whilst Firethorn will be the more forgiving of the three courses; it will place as much emphasis on the short game as it does the bombing prowess.

Previous winners of this event, in all its guises, include the likes of home stalwarts Charl Schwartzel, Brandon Grace and George Coetzee whilst when the course held the South Africa Open, as it did in 2018 and 2020, add the names Retief Goosen (beat Ernie Els), Louis Oosthuizen and Grace once again. Experience of the Kikuyu fairways and bentgrass greens does help, and whilst the course has had its changes (2017), I’m expecting a similar score of around 19-under and a quality winner with proven past form.

As always in these events, there is a fair amount of deadwood and whilst many are capable of sneaking into a top-10 place, the winner is likely to be based well under the three-figure price range.

Full respect to the short-priced favourite, Dean Burmester. There is no arguing that he deserves to be a single figure price in this field. He is the only entrant in the world top-100, is a recent winner at home and finished sixth to Collin Morikawa in Dubai just five days ago. There is nothing new there, and at 10-1 (+10000), he is well worth a saver to the main bets.

Jayden Schaper Win/Top 5 +4000/+800

At 16 years of age, the junior superstar completed the Grand Slam of South African ‘Nomad’ titles – at under-13, 15 and 17 level whilst also going back-to-back at under-19 – and it’s been only a matter of time before he makes the top league.

Indeed, so quick was Schaper’s rise that within a few months of completing the five-timer, he won the Junior Players at Sawgrass and ended the 2019 season with a 26th at Galgorm Castle on the full European Tour and a place just outside the top-40 in the prestigious Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek.

Despite the interruption to the 2020 season, he returned in August to record three top-10 and four top-20 finishes in a run of nine events before catching the eye of the golfing world when finishing runner-up to Christiaan Bezuidenhout at Leopard Creek. Back then, Schaper took a lead into the back-9 before playing three balls off the 10th tee and finishing with a 75, disappointing but hugely encouraging and a sign there were big things ahead.

2021 didn’t start in great fashion, but since August, the future star has recorded two top-five finishes, a trio of top-10s and a 12th place in just eight starts and, given the way he improves at a course, can be expected to leave last year’s 18th place behind.

Let’s sum it up with the facts.

On the Sunshine Tour, over the past three months, the 19-year-old ranks first for driving distance, fourth for total driving, 28th for greens, sixth for scrambling, ninth for putting average, fifth for par-fours and 12th for par-fives.

It won’t be if, it will be when.

Marcus Helligkilde Win/Top 5 +4000/ +800

Another youngster and one, aged 25 that is coming to the fore three years after starting out on his professional career on the Nordic Tour having won a couple of European amateur titles.

A trio of wins and numerous top-10 finishes in his native area was sandwiched with an initial learning period on the Challenge Tour, but it’s in the past nine months or so that he has shown the form that gives him every chance in this grade.

An early runner-up in Sweden preceded an eye-catching top-25 in Denmark on the main tour, a final-round 64 launching him from outside of the top-50, but it was the wire-to-wire win in Finland in August that gave him the confidence and belief. Back then, he stated, ”the biggest factor was my mental game and how I managed myself around the course.”

That mental fortitude was in evidence when fighting through the entire weekend at the BN-L Trophy in the Netherlands (lost in a playoff) before receiving an invitational to the Dutch Open on the main tour where he held second place from the second round until just lacking experience through the latter stages of Sunday. 17th tee-to-green and fifth around-the-green on the European Tour, around a tricky track, is never going to read badly.

Continuing to grow his game, Helligkilde had five remaining events on the feeder Challenge Tour, the second place in Spain surrounded by two wins, including the Challenge Tour Grand Finale, when he comfortably held off quality opposition to win the tournament and the overall title.

As a convoluted piece of evidence, take a look at his win at the Swiss Challenge. Whilst admittedly at a different track, previous runners-up in that event include Bryce Easton (seventh in the Joburg Open 2020), Romain Langasque (runner-up at Firethorn in the 2018 SA Open) and Brandon Stone (huge form in his home country and two top-seven finishes here).

This fella has a game plan lacking in so many and is ready to win once more.

One to put in your 10-to-follow lists whatever happens this week.

Bryce Easton Win/Top 5/Top 10 +7000/+1200/+550

Possibly one for your prop bets in the top-10/20 market given his win record of three in 260 starts (and none since 2018) but there are signs he has the game to be better than that, and he brings a course record of 7/mc/3/mc suggesting if he was to show top form, here may be the place.

I doubt there is any improvement in the 34-year-old but given his form here and on the European Tour this year, he is worth a small punt.

Top-25 in Portugal probably puts him close to the top page this week, but that looks average compared with his eighth at the London Club in July and most recent seventh in Mallorca when he led at halfway with a stunning display of putting.

Easton’s short game continues to impress, and with many in this field seriously lacking in short game skills, a repeat of any of these better efforts should see him go closer than the market expects.

Jaco Ahlers – Win/First Round Leader +6600/+5000

The first-round leader market is a chancy one but have a couple of shekels on the 39-year-old who can celebrate his (and mine) recent birthday with a lead after day one and be a genuine contender for the overall title.

Despite getting it done on eight occasions from 253 starts, Ahlers is often heralded as a ‘thinker’ when in front, especially in this slightly higher class, however in the last three seasons, the Sunshine Tour stalwart has picked up four runner-up finishes (three this year) and 18 further top-10s, suggesting he is a prop bet cash machine at the prices.

This season, best effort numbers read well but look further, and we see a flying second place behind George Coetzee and a most recent tied-fifth behind Burmy, the hot favourite this week. Level with Schaper on that occasion, he rates fifth on overall ranking over the past three months (according to tour-tips.com), comprising top-25 in total driving, 23rd in ball-striking, 14th in total putting and fifth in par-five performance, an asset given a boost when considering the top-three on last year’s leaderboard ranked first or second in that regard.

Ahlers just may be in the right type of form to continue his current number one ranking for first-round scoring average, and with his last ten opening 18-holes giving clues – four top-10’s and four further top-20 first-round finishes – here’s hoping a relatively early tee time on Thursday brings rewards.

Enjoy.

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19th Hole

‘Absolutely crazy’ – Major champ lays into Patrick Cantlay over his decision on final hole of RBC Heritage

Published

1 day ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Over the past year or so, PGA Tour star Patrick Cantlay has taken a great deal of criticism for his pace of play.

Now, Cantlay is once again under fire for a questionable decision he made on Sunday at the RBC Heritage.

After the horn sounded to suspend play due to darkness, Cantlay, whose ball was in the fairway on the 18th hole, had a decision to make. With over 200 yards into the green and extreme winds working against the shot, conventional wisdom would be to wait until Monday morning to hit the shot.

Related: Patrick Cantlay WITB

On the other hand, if he could finish the hole, he may just want to get the event over with so he could get out of Hilton Head.

Curiously, Cantlay chose neither of those options. After hitting 3-wood into the green, and still coming up short, the former FedEx Cup champion chose to mark his ball and return to chip and putt on Monday morning.

Ian Woosnam, who was watching from home, took to X to give his thoughts on Cantlay’s decision-making.

Can’t believe my eyes watching Patrick Cantlay why on earth would you hit your second shot then mark your ball absolutely crazy, maybe says a lot ?

— Ian Woosnam (@IWoosnam) April 22, 2024

Cantlay would end up getting up and down for par when play resumed at 8:00 Monday morning.

Following his round, Cantlay explained his decision to wait to hit his third shot the next morning:

“I really did want to finish last night, so I felt like if I could get the ball up there maybe in an easier spot, maybe I would have finished, but as I got the ball up near the green, I realized it would be easier to finish this morning. That’s what I decided to do.”

GolfWRX has reached out to Patrick Cantlay’s management team for a response to Woosnam’s comments.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

Published

1 day ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

Published

1 day ago

Apr 22, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide.

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory.

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second.

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

Richard Bland
Jon Rahm
Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

Abraham Ancer
Graeme McDowell
Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

Bryson DeChambeau
Joaquin Niemann
Dean Burmester

Putting

Cameron Smith
Louis Oosthuizen
Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.