19th Hole

2021 Sanderson Farms Championship betting tips & selections

Published

3 years ago

Sep 28, 2021

After a one week break for the Ryder Cup, the fall swing is back in gear, and players will be traveling to Jackson, Mississippi, this week for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Albeit under different title sponsors, this tournament has been part of the PGA Tour schedule since 1968, although it has only been played at the current host course, the Country Club of Jackson, since 2015.

While many of the world’s best players will be opting to rest up after the Ryder Cup, Sergio Garica is making the trek from Wisconsin to defend last year’s title. Other notables include Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, and Corey Conners. The field is about what we’ve come to expect for fall series events. While there may be a lack of elite talent at the top, there is still an abundance of capable players in the middle to lower tiers of this field.

As far as the task at hand, the Country Club of Jackson is stock par 72, measuring 7,461 yards with Bermuda-grass fairways, greens, and rough. Perusing through previous iterations of this tournament, it’s fairly evident that there is no set way to succeed at this course. We’ve seen bombers win, we’ve seen ultra-accurate fairway finders win, we’ve seen both short and inaccurate drivers be able to mask off the tee inefficiencies with elite iron play, and we’ve also seen the player who simply rolls in the most 20-footers win this tournament as well.

For that reason, I am not entirely caught up in finding specialists at a specific skill-set. I’m more-so just looking for players that can make a ton of birdies, are in good form, and have experienced success on Bermuda-grass greens. Given the wide range of skillsets in play here, I would definitely favor recent form this week over course fit.

Let’s dig into my outright selections!

Will Zalatoris (18/1, FanDuel)

This is a steep price to pay for a player who is still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, but I was fully committed to backing Will Zalatoris this week before the odds dropped and I’m not going to be scared off by oddsmakers fancying his chances as well. While I do tend to prefer Zalatoris on more difficult courses where elite long iron play is required and putting can be devalued, the C.C. of Jackson is still a course that should be able to highlight Zalatoris’ skillset. The Donald Fought design still measures over 7,400 yards on the scorecard, and 21.7% of approach shots do come from over 200 yards. Over his last 36 rounds, Zalatoris is the number one player in this field in proximity from 200 yards plus.

To me, Zalatoris’ perfect player comp is Sergio Garcia, another player who was plenty long off the tee, and was able to ride elite driving and iron play to a victory here last year. C.C. of Jackson designer John Fought may have attempted to model these greens after Donald Ross, but I am not sure he entirely succeeded at that, as we have seen so many poor putters find success here. The Dallas native is also coming off an 11th-place finish at the Fortinet Championship where he gained 6.8 strokes ball-striking, good for his best ball-striking week since May. He seems to have found the putter again as well, as Zalatoris has gained over 2.5 strokes putting in two of his last three starts, and both of those have come on Bermuda-grass greens.

Mito Pereira (33/1, Bet365)

While this will be Mito Pereira’s first appearance at the C.C. of Jackson, the young Chilean has the perfect game for the Southern track. Over his last 36 rounds, Pereira ranks well above field average in all eleven statistical metrics that I am weighing this week, except putting. He is plenty long off the tee, he makes birdies in bunches, he capitalizes on par fives, and he is an above average wedge player. Pereira has also shown an affinity for easier courses with a lot of driver holes, with top-five finishes at the 3M Open, Barbasol Championship, and most recently, the Fortinet Championship.

Last season’s three-time Korn Ferry Tour winner has not struggled with much of a learning curve yet on the PGA Tour, and his gaudy ball-striking numbers give reason to believe that he has a long career ahead of him. In his last start at the Fortinet Championship, Pereira gained 2.5 strokes off the tee and 6.2 strokes on approach. He held the solo lead at one point on Saturday but struggled with his flat-stick as the weekend progressed. The more reps that Pereira gets in contention at the PGA Tour level the better, and given his proven track record of closing tournaments, I’m confident the Chilean’s first victory is not far away.

Charley Hoffman (36/1, FanDuel)

It just feels like time for Charley Hoffman. The four-time PGA Tour winner has been percolating all season, and the C.C. of Jackson is a course that should suit his game to a tee. Over his last 36 rounds, Hoffman ranks third in strokes gained approach, fifth in birdies or better gained, seventh in proximity from 100-125 yards, 21st in driving distance, and eighth in greens in regulation gained. The UNLV product is long off the tee and thrives in easier scoring conditions, which at a very elementary level, should translate to success here. In each of his three appearances at the Sanderson Farms, Hoffman has improved, culminating in a sixth-place finish last year.

After a scorching hot spring, the San Diego native cooled towards the end of the summer, which have may thrown some off his scent. With that being said, he’s coming off a 22nd-place finish at the Fortinet Championship where he gained 1.2 strokes off the tee, and 1.8 strokes on approach. Hoffman can be found as low as 20/1 at other books, so 36 feels like an awfully fair number for a player that is overdue to pick up PGA Tour victory number five.

Joseph Bramlett (80/1, BetMGM)

This is actually an instance where I bet a player at slightly lower odds than I had him projected. I think the odds are really telling us something about Joseph Bramlett, who is nearly always in the triple digits, regardless of field strength. The Stanford University product can be found as low as 60/1 this week at some sportsbooks.

The case for Bramlett is simple. The C.C. of Jackson is an awesome course for him, and he’s coming off one of the best ball-striking performances of his career. Over his last 36 rounds, Bramlett is the number one player in this entire field in driving distance, and he just capped off a week where he gained 3.5 strokes off the tee, and 4.9 strokes on approach at the Fortinet Championship. Bramlett also won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship early this month, which was evidently a big confidence booster, as he hit the ball beautifully in his next PGA Tour start. There’s something going on with Bramlett right now, and given how he’s plummeted from his usual spot on the odds board in the triple digits, I am clearly not the only one who has noticed.

Luke List (125/1, BetMGM)

Luke List is not a player I tend to endorse because his putting can be so maddening, but if there is ever a course where horrific putters seem to rise to the occasion, it’s the C.C. of Jackson. Similar to previous Sanderson Farms winners Sergio Garcia and Cameron Champ, List is absolutely awesome off the tee, ranking sixth in strokes gained off the tee, and seventh in driving distance, over his last 36 rounds.

I have little concern that List, who already has a runner-up finish here, can dominate this course off the tee. The fate of this wager most definitely rests on his putter, but for how shaky that area of List’s game has been, he’s actually managed to stay relevant this season and rack up decent finishes. The Vanderbilt University product finished the 2020-2021 season with four top-10s. Two of them came at the Wells Fargo and Farmer’s Insurance Open, on difficult courses with good fields, and the other two came at the Barbasol Championship and John Deere Classic, easier courses where one can bomb away and is forced to make birdies. List has lost a combined 2.5 strokes putting across those four top-10 finishes this year, which is honestly hard to comprehend. He’s put himself in position to win multiple times this season despite putting below the field average. I don’t think it’s a question of whether or not he is good enough to win. He just needs to muster one of those weeks where he gains two strokes putting, which might be just enough this week.

Adam Schenk (160/1, FanDuel)

This is just a silly number on Adam Schenk. For context, Schenk is between 70 and 110/1 at most other books, so as soon as I saw the 160 that FanDuel was hanging, I acted immediately. To my knowledge, that number is still available. Whether or not you have access to that specific number on FanDuel, my projections had Adam Schenk as a 100/1 golfer this week, and I fully endorse a play on him anywhere you can get triple digits.

Schenk has played this course four times and finished a respectable 43rd, seventh, 36th, and 32nd. The 29-year old is plenty long off the tee, awesome on par fives, hits a ton of greens, and can make birdies in bunches. I’ve discussed trending ball-striking as a theme for me this week, and Schenk is coming off both his best off the tee week of the season and his best approach week in over two months. He’s thrived before in low scoring events, and he continues to put up solid finishes on this track. This was a no-brainer at this number.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 PGA Championship betting preview: Rising star ready to join the immortals at Valhalla

Published

13 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The second major of the 2024 season is upon us as the world’s best players will tee it up this week at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky to compete for the Wanamaker Trophy.

The last time we saw Valhalla host a major championship, Rory McIlroy fended off Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Rickie Fowler and the creeping darkness that was descending upon the golf course. The Northern Irishman had the golf world in the palm of his hand, joining only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as players who’d won four major championships by the time they were 25 years old.

Valhalla is named after the great hall described in Norse mythology where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The course is a Jack Nicklaus-design that has ranked among Golf Digest’s “America’s 100 Greatest Courses” for three decades.

Valhalla Golf Club is a par-71 measuring 7,542 yards with Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The course has rolling hills and dangerous streams scattered throughout and the signature 13th hole is picturesque with limestone and unique bunkering protecting the green. The 2024 PGA Championship will mark the fourth time Valhalla has hosted the event.

The field this week will consist of 156 players, including 16 PGA Champions and 33 Major Champions.

Past Winners of the PGA Championship

2023: Brooks Koepka (-9) Oak Hill
2022: Justin Thomas (-5) Southern Hills
2021: Phil Mickelson (-6) Kiawah Island
2020: Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019: Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018: Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow
2016: Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol
2015: Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014: Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Valhalla

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Oak Hill to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Valhalla will play as a true all-around test of golf for the world’s best. Of course, it will take strong approach play to win a major championship.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Shane Lowry (+1.25)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.09)
Jordan Smith (+1.05)
Tom Hoge (+.96)
Corey Conners (+.94)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Valhalla will play long and the rough will be penal. Players who are incredibly short off the tee and/or have a hard time hitting fairways will be all but eliminated from contention this week at the PGA Championship.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds:

Bryson DeChambeau (+1.47)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.11)
Keith Mitchell (+.90)
Alejandro Tosti (+.89)
Ludvig Aberg (+.82)

Strokes Gained: Total on Nickalus Designs

Valhalla is a classic Nicklaus Design. Players who play well at Nicklaus designs should have an advantage coming into this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Nicklaus Designs over past 36 rounds:

Jon Rahm (+2.56)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.48)
Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
Collin Morikawa (+1.79)
Shane Lowry (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on Very Long Courses

Valhalla is going to play extremely long this week. Players who have had success playing very long golf courses should be better equipped to handle the conditions of this major championship.

Strokes Gained: Total on Very Long Courses Over Past 24 Rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.44)
Rory McIlroy (+2.24)
Will Zalatoris (+1.78)
Viktor Hovland (+1.69)
Xander Schauffele (+1.60)

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships

One factor that tends to play a large role in deciding major championships is which players have played well in previous majors leading up to the event.

Strokes Gained: Total in Major Championships over past 20 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+3.14)
Will Zalatoris (+2.64)
Rory McIlroy (+2.49)
Xander Schauffele (+2.48)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.09)

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens

Valhalla features pure Bentgrass putting surfaces. Players who are comfortable putting on this surface will have an advantage on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass Greens over Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+1.12)
Denny McCarthy (+1.08)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.99)
Justin Rose (+0.93)
J.T. Poston (0.87)

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways

Valhalla features Zoysia fairways. Players who are comfortable playing on this surface will have an advantage on the field.

Strokes Gained: Total on Zoysia Fairways over past 36 rounds:

Justin Thomas (+1.53)
Will Zalatoris (+1.47)
Xander Schauffele (+1.40)
Brooks Koepka (+1.35)
Rory McIlroy (+1.23)

2024 PGA Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), SG: Off the Tee (22%), SG: T2G on Very Long Courses (12%), SG: Putting on Bentgrass (+12%), SG: Total on Nicklaus Designs (12%). SG: Total on Zoysia Fairways (8%), and SG: Total in Major Championships (8%).

Brooks Koepka
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Shane Lowry
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Cameron Young
Keith Mitchell
Hideki Matsuyama
Billy Horschel
Patrick Cantlay
Viktor Hovland
Adam Schenk
Chris Kirk
Sahith Theegala
Min Woo Lee
Joaquin Niemann
Justin Thomas

2024 PGA Championship Picks

Ludvig Aberg +1800 (BetMGM)

At The Masters, Ludvig Aberg announced to the golf world that he’s no longer an “up and coming” player. He’s one of the best players in the game of golf, regardless of experience.

Augusta National gave Aberg some necessary scar tissue and showed him what being in contention at a major championship felt like down the stretch. Unsurprisingly, he made a costly mistake, hitting it in the water left of the 11th hole, but showed his resilience by immediately bouncing back. He went on to birdie two of his next three holes and finished in solo second by three shots. With the type of demeanor that remains cool in pressure situations, I believe Ludvig has the right mental game to win a major at this point in his career.

Aberg has not finished outside of the top-25 in his past eight starts, which includes two runner-up finishes at both a “Signature Event” and a major championship. The 24-year-old is absolutely dominant with his driver, which will give him a major advantage this week. In the field he ranks, in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and has gained strokes in the category in each of his past ten starts. Aberg is already one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the planet.

In Norse mythology, Valhalla is the great hall where the souls of Vikings feasted and celebrated with the Gods. The Swedes, who are of Old Norse origin, were the last of the three Scandinavian Kingdoms to abandon the Old Norse Gods. A Swede played a major role in the 2014 PGA Championship at Valhalla, and I believe another, Ludvig Aberg, will be the one to conquer Valhalla in 2024.

Bryson DeChambeau +2800 (BetMGM)

Bryson DeChambeau is one of the few players in the world that I believe has the game to go blow-for-blow with Scottie Scheffler. Although he isn’t as consistent as Scheffler, when he’s at his best, Bryson has the talent to beat him.

At The Masters, DeChambeau put forth a valiant effort at a golf course that simply does not suit his game. Valhalla, on the other hand, is a course that should be perfect for the 30-year-old. His ability to overpower a golf course with his driver will be a serious weapon this week.

Bryson has had some success at Jack Nicklaus designs throughout his career as he won the Memorial at Muirfield Village back in 2018. He’s also had incredible results on Bentgrass greens for the entirety of his professional career. Of his 10 wins, nine of them have come on Bentgrass greens, with the only exception being the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He also has second place finishes at Medinah and TPC Summerlin, which feature Bentgrass greens.

Love him or hate him, it’s impossible to argue that Bryson isn’t one of the most exciting and important players in the game of golf. He’s also one of the best players in the world. A second major is coming soon for DeChambeau, and I believe he should be amongst the favorites to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy this week.

Patrick Cantlay +4000 (FanDuel)

There’s no way of getting around it: Patrick Cantlay has been dissapointing in major championships throughout his professional career. He’s been one of the top players on Tour for a handful of years and has yet to truly contend at a major championship, with the arguable exception of the 2019 Masters.

Despite not winning majors, Cantlay has won some big events. The 32-year-old has won two BMW Championships, two Memorial Tournaments as well as a Tour Championship. His victories at Memorial indicate how much Cantlay loves Nicklaus designs, where he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his past 36 rounds behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Cantlay also loves Bentgrass greens. Six of Cantlay’s seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass greens and he also was one of the best putters at the 2023 Ryder cup at Marco Simone (also Bentgrass). At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel another Bentgrass specialist, Bryson DeChambeau.

Cantlay finished 22nd in The Masters, which was a solid result considering how many elite players struggled that week. He also has two top-ten finishes in his past five PGA Championships. He’s undeniably one of the best players in the field, therefore, it comes down to believing Cantlay has the mental fortitude to win a major, which I do.

Joaquin Niemann +4000 (BetMGM)

I believe Joaquin Niemann is one of the best players in the world. He has three worldwide wins since December and has continued to improve over the course of his impressive career thus far. Still only 25, the Chilean has all the tools to be a serious contender in major championships for years to come.

Niemann has been the best player on LIV this season. Plenty will argue with the format or source of the money on LIV, but no one can argue that beating players such as Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and Cameron Smith is an unremarkable achievement. Niemann is an elite driver of the golf ball who hits it farther than just about anyone in the field not named Bryson DeChambeau or (arguably) Rory McIlroy.

Niemann is another player who has been fantastic throughout his career on Bentgrass greens. Prior to leaving the PGA Tour, Bentgrass was the only green surface in which Joaco was a positive putter. It’s clearly a surface that he is very comfortable putting on and should fare around and on the greens this week.

Niemann is a perfect fit for Valhalla. His low and penetrating ball flight will get him plenty of runout this week on the fairways and he should have shorter shots into the green complexes than his competitors. To this point in his career, the former top ranked amateur in the world (2018) has been underwhelming in major championships, but I don’t believe that will last much longer. Joaquin Niemann is a major championship caliber player and has a real chance to contend this week at Valhalla.

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19th Hole

PGA Tour pro takes to social media during round after being left unhappy with ruling

Published

15 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

During the of the inaugural Myrtle Beach Classic on the PGA Tour, Alejandro Tosti found himself in a precarious position around a bunker on the 7th hole on Sunday.

The Argentine was well out of contention, but when he approached his ball, he found it was wedged into the lip of the bunker. Feeling as though the ball was embedded, Tosti called over a rules official.

To his surprise, his request for relief for the embedded ball was denied.

Tosti took to his social media to post a video of the situation that he was able to record during the actual round!

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen this. Alejandro Tosti got a ruling about an embedded ball he didn’t like yesterday in Myrtle Beach. He took out his phone and recorded the situation and lie
I’m not good with rules, but it looks like he has a point to me, it looks outside of bunker. pic.twitter.com/6ycXiAWMEp

— Monday Q Info (@acaseofthegolf1) May 12, 2024

The video was found on Tosti’s Instagram by Ryan French of “Monday Q Info” on X.

Tosti was able to salvage a bogey on the hole, but shot a final round 74 (+3) to finish in a tie for 63rd.

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19th Hole

Swing coach reveals why he recently told Brooks Koepka to ‘stop whinging’

Published

15 hours ago

May 13, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Editor’s note: Whinging (British English): “Continuous complaining, especially about something that does not seem important,” per the Cambridge Dictionary.

At last month’s Masters Tournament, Brooks Koepka put forth a disappointing performance by his lofty standards.

The five-time major champion finished T45 a year after contending deep into Sunday of the 2023 Masters.

After the letdown, Koepka went to swing coach Pete Cowen, who he’s worked with for a decade, to ger him back on track.

Cowen spoke with The Telegraph, revealing what he said to the reigning PGA Champion.

“I gave him one of my old-fashioned b******ings when he was moaning to me about his putting. I told him to stop whinging and to just get to work on the issue. Again, that’s the sort of thing that triggers him. I gave him a b******ing before he won his first Major (the US Open) seven years ago.”

“He’s put in the hours and turned it around on the greens since then and with Valhalla being a big boys’ course, I can see him, at the very least, contending. If he wins, he’ll join (Sir Nick) Faldo and (Phil) Mickelson on six Majors and at his age that would be exciting. They’d probably still go on under-rating him, though.”

After the pep talk from Cowen, Koepka went on to win LIV Singapore.

As we enter the PGA Championship, three of the best players in the world, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka will all be coming off a victory in their previous start.