19th Hole

2021 Ryder Cup betting preview

Published

3 years ago

Sep 21, 2021

After a three-year-long wait, the 43rd edition of the Ryder Cup is finally here! The match will be held at the Pete Dye-designed Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wisconsin. The U.S. team figures to be glad to receive the home field advantage this year, as the European side has won each of the last six times on their soil, including the infamous 2018 beatdown in Paris.

Whistling Straits is playing as a 7,390-yard par 71 this week, and the course will play in stark contrast to the previous host course, Le Golf National. Since the U.S. team plays a hand in set-up, the rough figures to be down and multiple par fours have been shortened to become drivable for the longest hitters. This should play right into the U.S. team’s hands, who have an embarrassment of riches in terms of length off the tee, which has historically been one of the greatest indicators of success at Whistling Straits.

With all of that being said, bettors will have to pay a hefty price to back the United States. FanDuel currently has the most generous odds for the U.S. at -160, but they can be found at other books all the way up to -225. For this reason, while I do believe the U.S. will ultimately prevail, I have chosen to highlight five of my favorite prop offerings for those less inclined to lay that much juice. Let’s dive in!

2021 Ryder Cup betting picks

Shane Lowry top Great Britain and Ireland points scorer (+600, DraftKings)

Shane Lowry is a player that U.K tipster Steve Bamford and I discussed in-depth on the Inside Golf Podcast, and we are both high on his chances for a number of reasons. Firstly, Whistling Straits seems an ideal fit for the Irishman’s game, especially if the current weather forecast holds. Lowry finished third earlier this year on the Pete Dye designed Ocean Course at the PGA Championship, and who could get forget his monumental win of the 2019 Open Championship at the wind-swept Royal Portrush. With seven consecutive top-30 worldwide finishes, the five-time European Tour winner enters the Ryder Cup in much stronger form than many of his European counterparts at similar odds.

The greatest obstacle will be how much European captain Padraig Harrington chooses to utilize Lowry, yet I have a sneaking suspicion that we will see a lot more of the former Open Champion than we would expect. A pairing with Rory McIlroy certainly makes sense, as both hail from Ireland and possess similarly strong ball-striking. With that being said, the well-rounded nature of Lowry’s game makes him a solid partner for just about anyone on the European side. The reason I am selecting him as top Great Britain and Ireland points scorer instead of top European points scorer is that I do believe that both Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm will have big weeks for the European side, and in this offering, I am able to get rid of both of those threats, yet still acquire Lowry at inviting odds.

Daniel Berger top wildcard (+900, FanDuel)

I firmly believe that Daniel Berger is going to have an exceptional week, and I’m frankly a little surprised he’s not receiving more buzz. The four-time PGA Tour winner has gained over five strokes from tee-to-green in his last seven starts, and he is coming off a performance at the TOUR Championship where he gained 3.8 strokes ball-striking. Berger’s iron play rarely gets discussed, yet over a large sample size of his last 50 rounds, only Collin Morikawa has gained more strokes on approach.

Of course, I am concerned about Berger’s opportunity. The U.S. side is loaded with talent, and there is definitely a possibility that Berger will get lost in the shuffle. With that being said, when examining the top wildcard market, I am a little bit lower on Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele’s chances this week than others, and I do believe that if Berger plays well in his first match, then he will earn more opportunities as the week progresses. The Florida native has an incredibly well-rounded skill-set that should pair well with any of his teammates, and I have zero concerns about his motivation to make the most of his first Ryder Cup opportunity.

United States wins singles (-160, DraftKings)

While I am barely getting a better price on the U.S. to win the singles portion than the whole Ryder Cup, I do believe that the U.S.’s greatest advantage actually comes in this aspect of the event. Thus, I am failing to understand why they have shorter odds in this offering. On the other hand, the European’s greatest advantage comes during the foursomes format due to their lack of questions surrounding team chemistry and their ability to hide some of their weaker players.

Conversely, the U.S.’s greatest edge comes during singles, where they possess the clear talent advantage. I will gladly back the U.S. side to take care of business in an offering that I believe should have sizably steeper odds than the U.S.’s standard price to win the Ryder Cup.

Most points won matchup – Tony Finau (+100) over Tommy Fleetwood (DraftKings)

I understand that Tommy Fleetwood is everyone’s Ryder Cup darling after his 4-1 performance in 2018 at Le Golf National, yet I have my concerns about his ability to repeat such a performance at Whistling Straits for a number of reasons. Firstly, while Le Golf National was the perfect fit for the five-time European Tour winner’s game, Fleetwood may have his hands full at Whistling Straits. The Englishman is one of the shorter players off the tee in this entire competition and he is a very poor long iron player as well. Fleetwood is accurate off the tee and possesses an excellent short game, and those project to be two skill-sets that could be largely devalued on a course with virtually no rough that is simultaneously set-up for scoring.

Even more importantly, Fleetwood has still yet to figure things out recently on American soil. While he has been solid on the European Tour this season, the Southport native has not recorded a top-five in the U.S. since the 2020 Honda Classic, pre-COVID-19 pandemic. I do not see Padraig Harrington utilizing Fleetwood a great deal this week for the aforementioned reasons. I would actually be surprised if he plays more than three matches.

Tony Finau, on the other hand, figures to be an excellent fit for Whistling Straits, as exemplified by his tenth-place finish at the 2015 PGA Championship. The recent Northern Trust winner is plenty long off the tee, and is an ideal partner for any of the U.S. bombers because of his elite short game and ability to clean up some of the green-side messes on the plethora of drivable par-fours. There is little point of choosing a host course like Whistling Straights and then proceeding to not utilize a player with Tony Finau’s skill-set. I expect Finau to both get more opportunities than Fleetwood, and outperform him in the opportunities that he does receive as well.

Team USA to win by 1-3 points (+250, DraftKings)

I’ll conclude with what is my favorite bet on the board. After much back and forth, I have settled on the United States squeaking out a victory as my predicted outcome. Earlier in the week, I was in the camp that the U.S. would win more handily because of their clear talent advantage and how much better their collective skill-set fits at Whistling Straits, yet after a quick scan of this week’s weather forecast, conditions actually look more-so to resemble that of a course on the British Isles. The one aspect of the set-up that the U.S. cannot control is the weather, and even if they do everything in their power to make this course favor length off the tee and birdie makers, that desired outcome is nearly impossible to achieve with wind gusts up to 30 mph. If this event was played in a dome, the U.S. may win in a rout, but if these conditions hold, I do believe that excellent wind and difficult condition specialists such as Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton, and Matthew Fitzpatrick suddenly become far more relevant.

With all of that being said, the depth on the United States side gives them a clear edge in singles, and while I would be not be shocked if Europe actually enters Sunday with a lead, the U.S. still figures to outlast by a slim margin.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Wells Fargo Championship betting preview: Tommy Fleetwood ready to finally land maiden PGA Tour title

Published

14 hours ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA Tour season ramps back up this week for another “signature event,” as golf fans look forward to the year’s second major championship next week.

After two weaker-field events in the Zurich Classic and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, most of the best players in the world will head to historic Quail Hollow for one of the best non-major tournaments of the year.

Last season, Wyndham Clark won the event by four shots.

Quail Hollow is a par-71 measuring 7,521 yards that features Bermudagrass greens. The tree-lined, parkland style course can play quite difficult and features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as “The Green Mile,” which makes up holes 16-18: two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3. All three holes have an average score over par, and water is in play in each of the last five holes on the course.

The field is excellent this week with 68 golfers teeing it up without a cut. All of the golfers who’ve qualified are set to tee it up, with the exception of Scottie Scheffler, who is expecting the birth of his first child.

Past Winners at Quail Hollow

2023: Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022: Max Homa (-8)
2021: Rory McIlroy (-10)
2019: Max Homa (-15)
2018: Jason Day (-12)
2017: Justin Thomas (-8) (PGA Championship)
2016: James Hahn (-9)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)

Key Stats For Quail Hollow

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Akshay Bhatia (+1.16)
Tom Hoge (+1.12)
Corey Conners (+1.01)
Shane Lowry (+0.93)
Austin Eckroat (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Quail Hollow is a long course on which it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200 or more yards. With most of the holes heavily tree lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:

Ludvig Aberg (+0.73)
Rory McIlroy (+0.69)
Xander Schauffele (+0.62)
Viktor Hovland (+0.58)
Chris Kirk (+0.52)

Proximity: 175-200

The 175-200 range is key at Quail Hollow. Players who can hit their long irons well will rise to the top of the leaderboard.

Proximity: 175-200+ over past 24 rounds:

Cameron Young (28’2″)
Akshay Bhatia (29’6″)
Ludvig Aberg (+30’6″)
Sam Burns (+30’6″)
Collin Morikawa (+30’9″)

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs

Players who thrive on Tom Fazio designs get a bump for me at Quail Hollow this week.

SG: Total on Tom Fazio Designs over past 36 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.10)
Rory McIlroy (+1.95)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.68)
Austin Eckroat (+1.60)
Will Zalatoris (+1.57)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermudagrass.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

Taylor Moore (+0.82)
Nick Dunlap (+.76)
Wyndham Clark (+.69)
Emiliano Grillo (+.64)
Cam Davis (+.61)

Course History

This stat will incorporate players that have played well in the past at Quail Hollow.

Course History over past 36 rounds (per round):

Rory McIlroy (+2.50)
Justin Thomas (+1.96)
Jason Day (+1.92)
Rickie Fowler (+1.83)
Viktor Hovland (+1.78)

Wells Fargo Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: Off the Tee (23%), SG: Total on Fazio designs (12%), Proximity: 175-200 (12%), SG: Putting Bermuda grass (12%), and Course History (14%).

Wyndham Clark
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Cameron Young
Austin Eckroat
Byeong Hun An
Justin Thomas

2024 Wells Fargo Championship Picks

Tommy Fleetwood +2500 (DraftKings)

I know many out there have Tommy fatigue when it comes to betting, which is completely understandable given his lack of ability to win on the PGA Tour thus far in his career. However, history has shown us that players with Fleetwood’s talent eventually break though, and I believe for Tommy, it’s just a matter of time.

Fleetwood has been excellent on Tom Fazio designs. Over his past 36 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Fazio tracks. He’s also been incredibly reliable off the tee this season. He’s gained strokes in the category in eight of his past nine starts, including at The Masters, the PLAYERS and the three “signature events” of the season. Tommy is a golfer built for tougher courses and can grind it out in difficult conditions.

Last year, Fleetwood was the first-round leader at this event, firing a Thursday 65. He finished the event in a tie for 5th place.

For those worried about Fleetwood’s disappointing start his last time out at Harbour Town, he’s bounced back nicely after plenty of poor outings this season. His T7 at the Valero Texas Open was after a MC and T35 in his prior two starts and his win at the Dubai Invitational came after a T47 at the Sentry.

I expect Tommy to bounce back this week and contend at Quail Hollow.

Justin Thomas +3000 (DraftKings)

It’s been a rough couple of years for Justin Thomas, but I don’t believe things are quite as bad as they seem for JT. He got caught in the bad side of the draw at Augusta for last month’s Masters and has gained strokes on approach in seven of his nine starts in 2024.

Thomas may have found something in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage. He finished T5 at a course that he isn’t the best fit for on paper. He also finally got the putter working and ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week.

The two-time PGA champion captured the first of his two major championships at Quail Hollow back in 2017, and some good vibes from the course may be enough to get JT out of his slump.

Thomas hasn’t won an event in just about two years. However, I still believe that will change soon as he’s been one of the most prolific winners throughout his PGA Tour career. Since 2015, he has 15 PGA Tour wins.

Course history is pretty sticky at Quail Hollow, with players who like the course playing well there on a regular basis. In addition to JT’s PGA Championship win in 2017, he went 4-1 at the 2022 Presidents Cup and finished T14 at the event last year despite being in poor form. Thomas can return as one of the top players on the PGA Tour with a win at a “signature event” this week.

Cameron Young +3500 (DraftKings)

For many golf bettors, it’s been frustrating backing Cam Young this season. His talent is undeniable, and one of the best and most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. He just hasn’t broken through with a victory yet. Quail Hollow has been a great place for elite players to get their first victory. Rory McIlroy, Anthony Kim, Rickie Fowler and Wyndham Clark all notched their first PGA Tour win at Quail.

Throughout Cam Young’s career, he has thrived at tougher courses with strong fields. This season, he finished T16 at Riviera and T9 at Augusta National, demonstrating his preference of a tough test. His ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee make him an ideal fit for Quail Hollow, despite playing pretty poorly his first time out in 2023 (T59). Young should be comfortable playing in the region as he played his college golf at Wake Forest, which is about an hour’s drive from Quail Hollow.

The 26-year-old has played well at Tom Fazio designs in the past and ranks 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on those courses in his last 36 rounds. Perhaps most importantly, this season, Young is the best player on the PGA Tour in terms of proximity from 175-200 in the fairway, which is where a plurality and many crucial shots will come from this week.

Young is an elite talent and Quail Hollow has been kind to players of his ilk who’ve yet to win on Tour.

Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)

Byeong Hun An missed some opportunities last weekend at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He finished T4 and played some outstanding golf, but a couple of missed short putts prevented him from getting to the winning score of -23. Despite not getting the win, it’s hard to view An’s performance as anything other than an overwhelming success. It was An’s fourth top-ten finish of the season.

Last week, An gained 6.5 strokes ball striking, which was 7th in the field. He also ranked 12th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The South Korean has been hitting the ball so well from tee to green all season long and he now heads to a golf course that should reward his precision.

An’s driver and long irons are absolute weapons. At Quail Hollow, players will see plenty of approach shots from the 175-200 range as well as some from 200+. In his past 24 rounds, Ben ranks 3rd in the field in proximity from 175-200 and 12th in proximity from 200+. Playing in an event that will not end up being a “birdie” fest should help An, who can separate from the field with his strong tee to green play. The putter may not always cooperate but getting to -15 is much easier than getting to -23 for elite ball strikers who tend to struggle on the greens.

Winning a “signature event” feels like a tall task for An this week with so many elite players in the field. However, he’s finished T16 at the Genesis Invitational, T16 at The Masters and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 32-year-old’s game has improved drastically this season and I believe he’s ready to get the biggest win of his career.

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19th Hole

DP World Tour pro has score improved after round following bizarre rules situation

Published

19 hours ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

As originally reported by Ryan French of Monday Q Info, a DP World Tour player was impacted over the weekend by a peculiar rules situation.

Ivan Cantero was playing the Volvo China Open when he hit an errant tee shot on the 13th hole. Cantero was unsure if the ball was in play or not, as it went towards a jungle area, so he played a provisional.

French confirmed with a rules official that the provisional was legal due to the fact that the player didn’t know whether the ball was in play or not.

Cantero’s original ball was found in the penalty area, which should have rendered his provisional irrelevant.

A rules official then told Cantero he could no longer play his original ball because he hit a provisional.

French shares that Cantero asked for a second opinion and was given the same (incorrect) answer. He went on to play his provisional and made a long par putt on the par 5.

After the round, the rules officials realized their mistake and decided to take a stroke away from the player, changing the par to a birdie.

The report cites rule 20.2 in the Rules of Golf.

“If a ruling by a referee or the Committee is later found wrong, the ruling can be corrected if possible under the Rules. If it is too late to do so, the ruling stands.”

The score change resulted in Cantero making the cut on the number and he then rallied on Saturday to finish in 23rd place after a weather-shortened event.

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19th Hole

‘F*** around and find out’ – Phil Mickelson fires warning shot over LIV’s access to majors in since-deleted tweet

Published

23 hours ago

May 6, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

On Sunday, the social media account “Flushing It” made a post about the importance of LIV Golf ensuring that their players have major championship eligibility going forward.

Never has there been a more obvious example of the immediate issue LIV faces than today. The Volvo China Open was played for a $2.25 million purse and several players qualified for the PGA Championship at Valhalla. LIV Golf Singapore played for a purse more than 10 times that…

— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) May 5, 2024

“LIV can have the grandest of plans for their future but getting players access to major championships should be their number 1 priority. Especially with the major exemptions running out fast and nearly all player contracts up for renewal this year and next.”

Phil Mickelson then responded to the post, warning the golf world that excluding LIV players from majors will have unintended consequences, saying “FAAFO” which means “f*** around and find out”.

“Maybe some LIV players won’t be missed. But what if NONE of the LIV players played? Would they be missed? What about next year when more great players join? Or the following year? At some point they will care and will have to answer to sponsors and television. FAAFO”

His post has since been deleted, but there are plenty of screenshots out there.

??????? #FAAFO — LIV Golf star Phil Mickelson has sent a clear message to the powers that be, when it comes to LIV players and their access into majors: “F—k around and find out.”@flushingitgolf | @PhilMickelson pic.twitter.com/kVEL7VR6UN

— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) May 5, 2024

It will be easier said than done, but it does appear that some sort of agreement between LIV and the majors could be coming in the future if the PGA Tour and LIV aren’t able to mend fences.