19th Hole

2021 Ryder Cup betting preview

Published

3 years ago

Sep 21, 2021

After a three-year-long wait, the 43rd edition of the Ryder Cup is finally here! The match will be held at the Pete Dye-designed Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wisconsin. The U.S. team figures to be glad to receive the home field advantage this year, as the European side has won each of the last six times on their soil, including the infamous 2018 beatdown in Paris.

Whistling Straits is playing as a 7,390-yard par 71 this week, and the course will play in stark contrast to the previous host course, Le Golf National. Since the U.S. team plays a hand in set-up, the rough figures to be down and multiple par fours have been shortened to become drivable for the longest hitters. This should play right into the U.S. team’s hands, who have an embarrassment of riches in terms of length off the tee, which has historically been one of the greatest indicators of success at Whistling Straits.

With all of that being said, bettors will have to pay a hefty price to back the United States. FanDuel currently has the most generous odds for the U.S. at -160, but they can be found at other books all the way up to -225. For this reason, while I do believe the U.S. will ultimately prevail, I have chosen to highlight five of my favorite prop offerings for those less inclined to lay that much juice. Let’s dive in!

2021 Ryder Cup betting picks

Shane Lowry top Great Britain and Ireland points scorer (+600, DraftKings)

Shane Lowry is a player that U.K tipster Steve Bamford and I discussed in-depth on the Inside Golf Podcast, and we are both high on his chances for a number of reasons. Firstly, Whistling Straits seems an ideal fit for the Irishman’s game, especially if the current weather forecast holds. Lowry finished third earlier this year on the Pete Dye designed Ocean Course at the PGA Championship, and who could get forget his monumental win of the 2019 Open Championship at the wind-swept Royal Portrush. With seven consecutive top-30 worldwide finishes, the five-time European Tour winner enters the Ryder Cup in much stronger form than many of his European counterparts at similar odds.

The greatest obstacle will be how much European captain Padraig Harrington chooses to utilize Lowry, yet I have a sneaking suspicion that we will see a lot more of the former Open Champion than we would expect. A pairing with Rory McIlroy certainly makes sense, as both hail from Ireland and possess similarly strong ball-striking. With that being said, the well-rounded nature of Lowry’s game makes him a solid partner for just about anyone on the European side. The reason I am selecting him as top Great Britain and Ireland points scorer instead of top European points scorer is that I do believe that both Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm will have big weeks for the European side, and in this offering, I am able to get rid of both of those threats, yet still acquire Lowry at inviting odds.

Daniel Berger top wildcard (+900, FanDuel)

I firmly believe that Daniel Berger is going to have an exceptional week, and I’m frankly a little surprised he’s not receiving more buzz. The four-time PGA Tour winner has gained over five strokes from tee-to-green in his last seven starts, and he is coming off a performance at the TOUR Championship where he gained 3.8 strokes ball-striking. Berger’s iron play rarely gets discussed, yet over a large sample size of his last 50 rounds, only Collin Morikawa has gained more strokes on approach.

Of course, I am concerned about Berger’s opportunity. The U.S. side is loaded with talent, and there is definitely a possibility that Berger will get lost in the shuffle. With that being said, when examining the top wildcard market, I am a little bit lower on Jordan Spieth and Xander Schauffele’s chances this week than others, and I do believe that if Berger plays well in his first match, then he will earn more opportunities as the week progresses. The Florida native has an incredibly well-rounded skill-set that should pair well with any of his teammates, and I have zero concerns about his motivation to make the most of his first Ryder Cup opportunity.

United States wins singles (-160, DraftKings)

While I am barely getting a better price on the U.S. to win the singles portion than the whole Ryder Cup, I do believe that the U.S.’s greatest advantage actually comes in this aspect of the event. Thus, I am failing to understand why they have shorter odds in this offering. On the other hand, the European’s greatest advantage comes during the foursomes format due to their lack of questions surrounding team chemistry and their ability to hide some of their weaker players.

Conversely, the U.S.’s greatest edge comes during singles, where they possess the clear talent advantage. I will gladly back the U.S. side to take care of business in an offering that I believe should have sizably steeper odds than the U.S.’s standard price to win the Ryder Cup.

Most points won matchup – Tony Finau (+100) over Tommy Fleetwood (DraftKings)

I understand that Tommy Fleetwood is everyone’s Ryder Cup darling after his 4-1 performance in 2018 at Le Golf National, yet I have my concerns about his ability to repeat such a performance at Whistling Straits for a number of reasons. Firstly, while Le Golf National was the perfect fit for the five-time European Tour winner’s game, Fleetwood may have his hands full at Whistling Straits. The Englishman is one of the shorter players off the tee in this entire competition and he is a very poor long iron player as well. Fleetwood is accurate off the tee and possesses an excellent short game, and those project to be two skill-sets that could be largely devalued on a course with virtually no rough that is simultaneously set-up for scoring.

Even more importantly, Fleetwood has still yet to figure things out recently on American soil. While he has been solid on the European Tour this season, the Southport native has not recorded a top-five in the U.S. since the 2020 Honda Classic, pre-COVID-19 pandemic. I do not see Padraig Harrington utilizing Fleetwood a great deal this week for the aforementioned reasons. I would actually be surprised if he plays more than three matches.

Tony Finau, on the other hand, figures to be an excellent fit for Whistling Straits, as exemplified by his tenth-place finish at the 2015 PGA Championship. The recent Northern Trust winner is plenty long off the tee, and is an ideal partner for any of the U.S. bombers because of his elite short game and ability to clean up some of the green-side messes on the plethora of drivable par-fours. There is little point of choosing a host course like Whistling Straights and then proceeding to not utilize a player with Tony Finau’s skill-set. I expect Finau to both get more opportunities than Fleetwood, and outperform him in the opportunities that he does receive as well.

Team USA to win by 1-3 points (+250, DraftKings)

I’ll conclude with what is my favorite bet on the board. After much back and forth, I have settled on the United States squeaking out a victory as my predicted outcome. Earlier in the week, I was in the camp that the U.S. would win more handily because of their clear talent advantage and how much better their collective skill-set fits at Whistling Straits, yet after a quick scan of this week’s weather forecast, conditions actually look more-so to resemble that of a course on the British Isles. The one aspect of the set-up that the U.S. cannot control is the weather, and even if they do everything in their power to make this course favor length off the tee and birdie makers, that desired outcome is nearly impossible to achieve with wind gusts up to 30 mph. If this event was played in a dome, the U.S. may win in a rout, but if these conditions hold, I do believe that excellent wind and difficult condition specialists such as Shane Lowry, Tyrrell Hatton, and Matthew Fitzpatrick suddenly become far more relevant.

With all of that being said, the depth on the United States side gives them a clear edge in singles, and while I would be not be shocked if Europe actually enters Sunday with a lead, the U.S. still figures to outlast by a slim margin.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

7 hours ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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19th Hole

Why Patrick Reed was left unimpressed with his caddie’s comment during the Masters

Published

9 hours ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Patrick Reed scrapped together another strong Masters performance finishing in a tie for 13th.

Despite the solid week, the 2018 Masters champion lost strokes off the tee and did most of his best work on and around the greens. For the week, Reed ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 5th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

After a particularly bad drive during his third round on Saturday, Reed’s caddie, Kessler Karain, also his brother-in-law, made a snide but factual comment to Patrick.

“Your driving has cost us a lot this week,” Karain remarked.

Reed didn’t disagree and told reporters after the round that there was nothing good about his round.

“No, there’s nothing good out of today. I guess the only good thing is I didn’t make a double. That was about it.”

“Yeah, it was a frustrating day.”

A reporter then asked: “It’s a good thing he’s a family member, right?”

To which Reed responded:

“Yeah, exactly. I’d probably be dragging him up that last hole, I swear.Just what you want to hear as you’re looking at the ball in the tree, and he goes, ‘You need to drive it better.’ Thanks, Kessler. I appreciate it. Great words of wisdom. Drive it better.”

This may be the last major for Reed for a while, as the 33-year-old has not been invited nor qualified for next month’s PGA Championship.

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19th Hole

Neal Shipley presser ends in awkward fashion after reporter claims Tiger handed him note on 8th fairway

Published

9 hours ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Neal Shipley, who had the thrill of playing alongside Tiger Woods on Sunday at The Masters as well being low amateur for the tournament, had an interesting exchange with a reporter during his post-round press conference on Sunday.

The reporter asked, “I saw on 8 fairway he wrote something and handed you a note. What was that about?”

Shipley replied, “He didn’t.”

“I thought he wrote something and handed you a piece of paper?” the reporter replied.

“No, no. That didn’t happen.” The amateur said.

?? #NoteGate — A reporter said he saw Tiger Woods write something down & hand a note to Neal Shipley in the 8th fairway.

“No no, that didn’t happen”

pic.twitter.com/1D4FBOH3Ak

— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) April 14, 2024