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2021 Fortinet Championship betting tips and selections

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3 years ago

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After the shortest offseason in sports, the PGA Tour kicks off its new 2021-2022 season with the Fortinet Championship in Napa, California. If this tournament sounds unfamiliar, fear not, it will still be held at Silverado Country Club, which has been the host course for the past seven years. It merely received a new title sponsor, as this was primarily the Safeway Open. While many of the world’s best players will be opting to rest up after a grueling super-season, three of last year’s major champions, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, and Phil Mickelson will be in attendance.

As far as the task at hand, Silverado Country Club is a par 72 measuring just 7,123 yards on the scorecard with a poa-bent greens and poa-Bermuda fairways. Players will certainly be able to take advantage of the Robert Trent Jones design, as all four par 5s are reachable, zero par 4s measure over 458 yards, water only comes into play twice, and there is not a huge penalty for missing the fairway. For those reasons, I will primarily be looking to attack elite wedge players who thrive in low scoring events.

Let’s dig into my outright selections.

Harold Varner III (40-1, DraftKings)

On a course where every player in the field will have a wedge in their hands often, I’m comfortable skipping the top of the board and beginning my card in the 40-1 range. I tend to feel that elite players lose some of their advantage on easier courses. Much more randomness is involved in tournaments that can turn into a putting contest, so you’ll notice that I am taking a couple more chances with selections at longer odds.

With that being said, Harold Varner feels like an adequate place to start. The East Carolina University alum is coming off back-to-back top-15 finishes in the FedEx Cup Playoffs where he gained over 3.5 strokes on approach. Now, he enters a tournament with a much weaker field on a course he has already experienced a fair amount of success at. Varner has four top-30 finishes in six appearances at Silverado, and he continues to come here every year and is often hovering around the first page of the leaderboard. Both his off the tee and approach game are trending positively as well. This feels like a logical breakthrough spot for the Ohio native.

Chez Reavie (70-1, DraftKings)

Moving down the board, Chez Reavie has my attention as a player who is both riding some impressive form and has already experienced success at Silverado. The two-time PGA Tour winner has made the cut in every appearance at this event, culminating with a career-best third-place last year, where he gained 7.4 strokes on approach.

While Reavie is not long off the tee, he is able to mask that with elite driving accuracy and wedge play. With impressive performances at Pebble Beach, TPC Scottsdale, Waialae, and PGA West, the Arizona State product also has a clear affinity for west coast golf and poa greens.

Most importantly, I love the way his ball-striking is trending. Reavie has gained over 1.7 strokes off the tee in four consecutive starts, and he is coming off a performance at the Northern Trust where he gained 3.2 strokes on approach. I will gladly back Reavie at this very reasonable price.

Doug Ghim (90-1, DraftKings)

Doug Ghim is a player I continue to believe is on the precipice of a break-through win. At the tender age of 25, the former University of Texas standout boasts a decorated amateur and collegiate career, and while he has yet to find the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour, a contending performance at the Players Championship in March displayed his talent.

The reason I have interest in Ghim on this specific course is two-fold. First of all, Ghim is an incredible wedge player. Over his last 36 rounds, he is one of only two players in this entire field to rank inside the top 15 in every proximity distance between 75-150 yards, where the large plurality of Silverado’s approach shots come from.

Secondly, Silverado can be picked apart with elite driving, and Ghim is coming off a week at the Northern Trust where he gained 5.3 strokes off the tee, good for the best performance of his career. If the former Ben Hogan Award winner has truly found something off the tee, and irons can continue to trend positively, Ghim will be firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

Pat Perez (95-1, FanDuel)

Pat Perez might be my favorite play on the board this week, and I would encourage readers to shop around, as he can be found as low as 60-1 at other books.

With four top-20 finishes in his last six starts, the three-time PGA Tour winner is clearly percolating. Most recently, Perez gained 5.7 on approach at the Northern Trust, which featured one of the strongest fields of the entire season. Now he returns to a much weaker field in a fall series event, where he is certainly most comfortable.

Two of Perez’s three career wins have come in fall series events, and his affinity for resort-style courses where birdies are the currency runs deep. I expect the Arizona State product to mesh perfectly with the vibe this week in Napa, and pick up win number four in the process.

Dylan Frittelli (140-1, FanDuel)

While Dylan Frittelli’s 2021 season has been marred with inconsistency, Silverado is the perfect set-up for the big-hitting South African, as evidenced by a 25th and seventh in two appearances.

While Frittelli is mediocre at many things, he is downright elite at two very specific things that have been proven to be very important at Silverado. The University of Texas product is long off the tee, and he is an excellent wedge player. Frittelli is actually one of only two players in this entire field to rank top-40 in all of the proximity distances between 75 and 150 yards, as well as driving distance.

At an extremely elementary level, selecting players that can bomb it off the tee and stick their wedges is not a terrible strategy to adopt this week. Obviously, recent form cannot be ignored, and while Frittelli has missed two of his last three cuts, he is coming off his best off the tee performance in over a year, and his irons are trending positively as well. This is far too large of a number for a PGA Tour winner with a recent top-five at the British Open, who also happens to fit this course to a tee.

Patrick Rodgers (160-1, FanDuel)

After a standout career at the University of Stanford, there is only one way to describe Patrick Rodgers’ PGA Tour career: disappointing. Rodgers is not short on talent, but he has yet to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together and pick up that elusive first PGA Tour victory. While some may have already lost hope, I’m not yet willing to give up on the big hitting former Ben Hogan Award winner with one of the silkiest putting strokes in the game.

In a nutshell, Patrick Rodgers hits the ball a long way and can get insanely hot with his putter, which is never a bad formula in a birdie-fest. I think Silverado is the perfect course for Rodgers, and not just because it is in California, where Rodgers has un-coincidentally recorded some of his best career finishes.

With seven of his last eight made cuts, Rodgers’ game is really starting to come around. He has gained off the tee in seven of his last eight starts and gained with his irons in three straight as well. I’ve already alluded to the putting stroke, and now Rodgers returns to his preferred surface, poa annua, where he was last seen gaining 7.2 strokes putting at Torrey Pines.

Featured image c/o Fortinet Championship on Twitter. 

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Masters 2024: Reduced-scale clubhouse trophy and green jacket to Scottie Scheffler

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8 hours ago

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Apr 15, 2024

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In the world of golf, there is Scotty and there is Scottie. Scotty Cameron gave the world of golf a nickname for a prestigious putter line, and Scottie Scheffler has now given the golf world a blueprint for how to negotiate one of the toughest tournaments to win. Sunday, Scheffler won the Masters tournament for the second time in three years. He separated from the field around the turn, making a trio of birdies at holes eight through 10. On the long walk home, he added three more birdie at 13, 14, and 16, to secure a four-shot win over Masters and major-championship rookie Ludvig Åberg.

As the final group moved along the ninth hole, a quadrilateral stood at 7 under par, tied for the lead. Scheffler, playing partner Collin Morikawa, and penultimate pairing Max Homa and Åberg advanced equally toward Amen Corner, with the resolution of the competition well in doubt. Morikawa flinched first, getting too greedy (his words) at nine and 11. Double bogey at each dropped him farther back than he wished, and he ultimately made a 10-foot putt for bogey at the last, to tie for third position.

Ludvig Åberg made the next mistake. Whether he knew the Ben Hogan story about the approach into 11 or not, he bit off way more than he should have. His approach was never hopeful, and ended short and right in White Dogwood’s pond. Åberg finished the hole in six shots. To his credit, he played the remaining seven holes in two-under figures. Finally, Max Homa was the victim of the finicky winds over Golden Bell, the short, par-3 12th hole. His disbelief was evident, as his tee shot flew everything and landed in azaleas behind the putting surface. After two pitch shots and two putts, Homa also had a double bogey, losing shots that he could not surrender.

Why? At the ninth hole, Scottie Scheffler hit one of the finest approach shots of all time, into the final green of the first nine. Scheffler had six inches for birdie and he converted. At the 10th, he lasered another approach shot into a tricky hole location, then made another fine putt for birdie. Within the space of 30 minutes, Scheffler had seized complete control of the tournament, but Amen Corner still lurked.

At the 11th, Scheffler played safely right with his approach. His chip shot was a wee bit too brave and left him a seven-foot comeback putt for par. He missed on the right side and gave one shot back to the course and field. His tee ball on 12 was safely aboard, and he took two putts for par. On 13, the 2022 champion drove slightly through the fairway, then reached the green, with his first two shots. His seventy-foot-plus putt for eagle eased up, four feet past the hole. His second putt went down, and he was back in the birdie zone. As on nine, his approach to 14 green finished brilliantly within six inches. His final birdie came at the 16th, where he negotiated a nine-foot putt for a deuce.

Scheffler reached 11 under par and stood four shots clear of Ludvig Åberg when he reached the 18th tee. His drive found the lower fairway bunker on the left, and his approach settled in a vale, short and right of the green. With dexterous hands, Scheffler pitched to three feet and made the putt for par. With a big smile, he embraced caddie Ted Scott, who won for the fourth time at Augusta National, and the second with Scheffler. Ludvig Åberg finished alone in second spot, four back of the winner. Not a bad performance for the first-time major championship participant Åberg, and not a bad finish for the world No. 1 and second-time Masters champion, Scottie Scheffler.

 

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5 Things We Learned: Saturday at the Masters

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2 days ago

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Apr 13, 2024

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Just as the honorary starters broke our hearts with the reality of ageing, so too, did Saturday, with the revelation that third-round Tiger Woods is not yet (if ever) what he once was. The great champion struggled mightily to an 82, tied with three others for high round of the day. Among the top ten, the worst score posted was DeChambeau’s 75, but the large Californian remains in the hunt. Day four will see 2022 champion Scottie Scheffler pair with Collin Morikawa in the final game. In front of them will be Max Homa and Ludwig Åberg. The antipenultimate pairing will feature DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele.

If you look at the one-off major winners, most took advantage of their only chance at grand slam glory. For golfers like Homa, Schauffele, and others, Sunday the 14th might represent their best and only chance at claiming a major title. For Scheffler, Morikawa, and DeChambeau, the ability to join the two-time and three-time, major winners club holds great appeal. Finally, a young’un like Åberg seeks to jump-start a more-than-tour-winner career with a major title. Many of the greats won them early, and the Swede from Texas Tech would love nothing more than a chance to join that company.

Sunday at Augusta, as always, will be riveting. It will provide hope throughout the first nine holes, then gut many a competitor’s heart coming home, rewarding just one with a new item for the wardrobe. Plan your menu and choose your outfit. Masters 2024 is about to conclude. Until then, let’s reveal five things that we learned on day three of the year’s first men’s major.

1. The three most critical holes on the first nine are …

numbers four through six. You might make some birdies at the first and last trios of holes, but the middle triumvirate of fairways and greens determines your day. Play them even par or better, and you’ll lose zero shots to the field. Get on a downward spiral of slightly-wayward shots, and recovery will be nigh impossible. Anyone who makes three at the fifth, as Tiger Woods did on Saturday, will get giddy.

2. The three most important holes on the second nine are …

ten through twelve. We realize that we commit heresy by omitting one of Herbert Warren Wind’s Amen Corner traces, but par or better is critical at 10. Dry landings at 11 and 12 set the competitor up for two par fives in three holes, sandwiched around a straightforward, par-four hole. Remember when Ben Crenshaw began his march to glory in 1995? It all started with birdie at the 10th.

3. The most interesting and efficient round of day three came from …

Collin Morikawa. Birdies at the first three holes, followed by bogey-birdie at six and eight, then ten consecutive pars to finish off the second-low round of the day. Morikawa has improved each day, from 71 to 70 to 69. He has won majors in England and California. He has the temperment for this sort of day, but will certainly be in the hottest of all cauldrons around 3 pm on Sunday.

4. The guy who lost the most ground on day three was …

Nikolai Hojgaard. The dude failed to make par from the seventh green to the 16th. After three consecutive birdies around the turn (8 through 10), the Great Dane tumbled to earth with five consecutive bogeys. 11 and 12, we understand, but 13 and 15 are par-five holes, for goodness sake! No matter where he finds himself on day four’s back nine, it will be hard to put that stretch of golf out of his mind.

5. Our pick for the green jacket is …

impossible to nail. We suspect that certain players should and could perform on Sunday. We remember when Retief Goosen, a great US Open winner until round four of 2005, lost his mojo. We recall days when Rich Beam and Y.E. Yang pulled major titles away from Tiger Woods. Things go wrong on Sunday, and they go wrong super-quick at Augusta.

We’ve decided to ascend Mount Olympus for our Sunday selection. Who better than the 2021 Olympic champion to add a long-awaited, first major title. It’s Professor X for us: Xander Schauffele.

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5 Things We Learned: Friday at the Masters

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2 days ago

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Apr 13, 2024

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You don’t see leaves on the ground at Augusta National. The grounds crew and superintendent’s staff take care of those sorts of things, so that both course appearance and consistency of play are preserved at the top tier. We saw leaves on the ground today and, given the force and perseverance of the wind, we’re lucky that we didn’t see tree trunks along the fairways. We did see higher scores than secured in round one, and some of the three- and four-hole stretches were downright inconceivable. The cut after 36 holes came at six over par, and five dozen golfers reached the weekend of play. Numbers always define the story of a tournament, and we’ll let them define the five things we learned on day two of the 2024 Masters tournament.

One: 60 + 10

Sixty golfers posted scores of 148 or better through 36 holes, to reach weekend play. Ten more golfers posted 149 and missed the cut by a single stroke. The ones who missed the cut by a stroke included former champions Mike Weir, Zach Johnson, and Sergio Garcia. Also among the brood were current US Open champion Wyndham Clark, and Nick Dunlap, who won on the PGA Tour as an amateur in January, and subsequently turned professional. Of the ones who survived by the slimmest of margins, surviving to the weekend were former champions Jose Maria Olazabal, Hideki Matsuyama, and Adam Scott, along with Rickie Fowler and Tom Kim. Golf’s cut is a cruel and unconcerned blade, and each Masters tournament reminds us of this fact.

Two: One

The number of amateurs to make the cut in the 2024 Masters is solitary. His name is Neil Shipley, and most folks love him. He wears his hair to the shoulder, and appears to have the proper balance of intensity and chill. Shipley opened with 71, then held on for 76 on day two. He made the cut by three shots, and will collect his share of hardware on Sunday. It’s safe to say that Shipley will turn his attention to learning the course, as well as his own self under pressure.

Three: 23

For most sorts fans, 23 recalls the greatest NBA player of all time, Michael Jordan. For Justin Thomas, it’s a number that will haunt him for a long time. Thomas reached tee number fifteen on Friday at even par. The two-time PGA Champion played the subsequent, four-hole stretch in 23 shots, missing the cut by a shot. On fifteen, he went for the green in two, in some sort of halfhearted manner. He got wet with shot number two, went long with his pitch, and three-putted from the fringe. On sixteen, he played away from safety and found elevated sand. His blast went down the hill, and he missed his approach putt in the wrong place. On seventeen, he missed his drive right and his approach long, and lost another shot to par. The coup de grace took place on the home hole: drive so horribly left that he had to pitch out to the fairway and hit three metal into the green. His third double bogey in four holes dropped him all the way to 151 and plus seven. Among the many questions, the foremost one was why he dropped his longtime caddy on the eve of a major championship. Surely Bones would have saved him one of those shots, and perhaps more.

Four: Forty-Nine divided by five or six

Tiger Woods cannot possibly win title number six at Augusta in his 49th year, can he? Not on this broken body, and not from seven strokes behind, right? Not with so few competitive rounds over the most recent months, and not one year removed from a third-round withdrawal from this very tournament. Well, if he cannnot possibly win, allow us to dream and hope a bit, and hold on to a fantasy.

Five: 3 that we like

We like Scottie Scheffler, of course. He seems to have a sense of Augusta National, and he was able to hold on in 2023 for the championship. We like Nikolai Hojgaard, because he might have just the proper combination of naivete and experience for a first-time winner. Finally, we like Collin Morikawa, a winner of two separate major titles. Winning at Augusta National requires a certain amount of length, unless you putt lights out. Morikawa might be embedded in one of those putting weeks.

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