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2021 Fortinet Championship betting tips and selections
After the shortest offseason in sports, the PGA Tour kicks off its new 2021-2022 season with the Fortinet Championship in Napa, California. If this tournament sounds unfamiliar, fear not, it will still be held at Silverado Country Club, which has been the host course for the past seven years. It merely received a new title sponsor, as this was primarily the Safeway Open. While many of the world’s best players will be opting to rest up after a grueling super-season, three of last year’s major champions, Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, and Phil Mickelson will be in attendance.
As far as the task at hand, Silverado Country Club is a par 72 measuring just 7,123 yards on the scorecard with a poa-bent greens and poa-Bermuda fairways. Players will certainly be able to take advantage of the Robert Trent Jones design, as all four par 5s are reachable, zero par 4s measure over 458 yards, water only comes into play twice, and there is not a huge penalty for missing the fairway. For those reasons, I will primarily be looking to attack elite wedge players who thrive in low scoring events.
Let’s dig into my outright selections.
Harold Varner III (40-1, DraftKings)
On a course where every player in the field will have a wedge in their hands often, I’m comfortable skipping the top of the board and beginning my card in the 40-1 range. I tend to feel that elite players lose some of their advantage on easier courses. Much more randomness is involved in tournaments that can turn into a putting contest, so you’ll notice that I am taking a couple more chances with selections at longer odds.
With that being said, Harold Varner feels like an adequate place to start. The East Carolina University alum is coming off back-to-back top-15 finishes in the FedEx Cup Playoffs where he gained over 3.5 strokes on approach. Now, he enters a tournament with a much weaker field on a course he has already experienced a fair amount of success at. Varner has four top-30 finishes in six appearances at Silverado, and he continues to come here every year and is often hovering around the first page of the leaderboard. Both his off the tee and approach game are trending positively as well. This feels like a logical breakthrough spot for the Ohio native.
Chez Reavie (70-1, DraftKings)
Moving down the board, Chez Reavie has my attention as a player who is both riding some impressive form and has already experienced success at Silverado. The two-time PGA Tour winner has made the cut in every appearance at this event, culminating with a career-best third-place last year, where he gained 7.4 strokes on approach.
While Reavie is not long off the tee, he is able to mask that with elite driving accuracy and wedge play. With impressive performances at Pebble Beach, TPC Scottsdale, Waialae, and PGA West, the Arizona State product also has a clear affinity for west coast golf and poa greens.
Most importantly, I love the way his ball-striking is trending. Reavie has gained over 1.7 strokes off the tee in four consecutive starts, and he is coming off a performance at the Northern Trust where he gained 3.2 strokes on approach. I will gladly back Reavie at this very reasonable price.
Doug Ghim (90-1, DraftKings)
Doug Ghim is a player I continue to believe is on the precipice of a break-through win. At the tender age of 25, the former University of Texas standout boasts a decorated amateur and collegiate career, and while he has yet to find the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour, a contending performance at the Players Championship in March displayed his talent.
The reason I have interest in Ghim on this specific course is two-fold. First of all, Ghim is an incredible wedge player. Over his last 36 rounds, he is one of only two players in this entire field to rank inside the top 15 in every proximity distance between 75-150 yards, where the large plurality of Silverado’s approach shots come from.
Secondly, Silverado can be picked apart with elite driving, and Ghim is coming off a week at the Northern Trust where he gained 5.3 strokes off the tee, good for the best performance of his career. If the former Ben Hogan Award winner has truly found something off the tee, and irons can continue to trend positively, Ghim will be firmly in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Pat Perez (95-1, FanDuel)
Pat Perez might be my favorite play on the board this week, and I would encourage readers to shop around, as he can be found as low as 60-1 at other books.
With four top-20 finishes in his last six starts, the three-time PGA Tour winner is clearly percolating. Most recently, Perez gained 5.7 on approach at the Northern Trust, which featured one of the strongest fields of the entire season. Now he returns to a much weaker field in a fall series event, where he is certainly most comfortable.
Two of Perez’s three career wins have come in fall series events, and his affinity for resort-style courses where birdies are the currency runs deep. I expect the Arizona State product to mesh perfectly with the vibe this week in Napa, and pick up win number four in the process.
Dylan Frittelli (140-1, FanDuel)
While Dylan Frittelli’s 2021 season has been marred with inconsistency, Silverado is the perfect set-up for the big-hitting South African, as evidenced by a 25th and seventh in two appearances.
While Frittelli is mediocre at many things, he is downright elite at two very specific things that have been proven to be very important at Silverado. The University of Texas product is long off the tee, and he is an excellent wedge player. Frittelli is actually one of only two players in this entire field to rank top-40 in all of the proximity distances between 75 and 150 yards, as well as driving distance.
At an extremely elementary level, selecting players that can bomb it off the tee and stick their wedges is not a terrible strategy to adopt this week. Obviously, recent form cannot be ignored, and while Frittelli has missed two of his last three cuts, he is coming off his best off the tee performance in over a year, and his irons are trending positively as well. This is far too large of a number for a PGA Tour winner with a recent top-five at the British Open, who also happens to fit this course to a tee.
Patrick Rodgers (160-1, FanDuel)
After a standout career at the University of Stanford, there is only one way to describe Patrick Rodgers’ PGA Tour career: disappointing. Rodgers is not short on talent, but he has yet to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together and pick up that elusive first PGA Tour victory. While some may have already lost hope, I’m not yet willing to give up on the big hitting former Ben Hogan Award winner with one of the silkiest putting strokes in the game.
In a nutshell, Patrick Rodgers hits the ball a long way and can get insanely hot with his putter, which is never a bad formula in a birdie-fest. I think Silverado is the perfect course for Rodgers, and not just because it is in California, where Rodgers has un-coincidentally recorded some of his best career finishes.
With seven of his last eight made cuts, Rodgers’ game is really starting to come around. He has gained off the tee in seven of his last eight starts and gained with his irons in three straight as well. I’ve already alluded to the putting stroke, and now Rodgers returns to his preferred surface, poa annua, where he was last seen gaining 7.2 strokes putting at Torrey Pines.
Featured image c/o Fortinet Championship on Twitter.
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Tour Rundown: Matching luggage for Scheffler
For those of us from another generation, the disruption of the golf world that we knew well is both exciting and unsettling. The two most potent disruptors are rival golf leagues, not unlike the turmoil seen in the NCAA, and the Anchorman-style gangs of golf reporters. Reconciled to a past era are the dominance of the U.S. PGA Tour and the monthly golf magazines. One element that will not change, at any time in the foreseeable future, however, is the sanctity of the grand slam and golf’s four male major championships. While the LPGA and the PGA Tour Champions have seen a light and added fifth and sixth power titles, the men’s game remains staunchly in the 20th century.
This last topic surges in pertinence each March, just before the playing of The Players Championship. Two camps stake tents and run banners up the poll. One cries out for elevation of the PC to major status, while the other digs a trench around its impregnable quadrilateral. My personal take is this: Every four years since 2016, golf is played at the Olympics. Is Olympic Gold the equivalent of a major title? Yes, it is. It comes around every 1,500 days and brings elite golfers together in competition at the most important athletic event and venue. In my mind, Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele earned major titles in Brazil and Japan, as did Inbee Park and Nelly Korda. As for the Players Championship, why not? The field is stronger by ranking than any major event, and the golf course demands every shot that golfers can create.
The Players Championship is so important to the U.S. PGA Tour that all other tours under its umbrella take the week off. No Korn Ferry, no Tour Champions. The LPGA and the DP World Tour follow suit, which shrinks the amount of watchable golf to two events. On that sour note, let’s run down this week’s play, beginning with the Players Championship and ending with the Asian Tour in Macau.
PGA Tour @ Players Championship: matching luggage for Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler is making a bid to be the player of his generation. From the previous one, a fair number have taken leave from traditional competition. The Johnsons, Koepkas, and Reeds from the 1980s no longer play the events that stand the test of time. The born-in-the-90s generation had its first great champion in Jordan Spieth until he took leave of the senses that brought him to golf’s pinnacle. Spieth’s descent ran opposite Scheffler’s rise.
Scottie Scheffler had won nothing on the PGA Tour until February 13th of 2022. He won on that day in Phoenix, then won three more times by the middle of April. One of those wins was the API at Bay Hill. Last week, Scheffler won for a second time at the Orlando course. Last March, Scheffler won his first Players Championship, by five shots over Tyrrell Hatton. On Sunday, Scheffler dived headfirst into a cauldron of fierce competition. Facing challenges from Olympic champion Schauffele, Open champion Brian Harmon, and U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark, Scheffler breathed. As the only man to reach 20 under par, he earned a second consecutive title at Sawgrass and reminded us that it has been two years since he won the Masters and that he is on a tear.
It all began at the fourth on Sunday for Scheffler. After pars at the opening three holes, Scheffler’s driving wedge from 92 yards landed 20 feet shy of the hole, took one large bounce, then spun left, trickling into the hole for eagle. He followed that incantation with another birdie, then two pars. The stretch from 8 to 12 was where the champion made a statement. His quartet of birdies over that run, brought him to 19-under par and let the pursuing pack know that even lower than the winning 17 under in 2023 would be necessary.
And the trio was game. Harman and Clark both dipped below 70, to reach 19 under at the final pole. Schauffele could not find a similar gear and closed with 70 — 69 would have earned him a playoff with Scheffler. It was the extra gear, the ability to go low when all things mattered, that eleveated the now two-time champion to the top of the podium. In five of his eight tour wins, Scheffler has posted a sub-70 round on day four, and four of those have been 67 or lower.
With elegant precision, Scheffler applied the final thrust at the par-5 16th. He played safely away from Pete’s Pond on the right, into the left greenside bunker at the back of the putting surface. His bunker shot was thing of exquisite accuracy, trickling to a planned stop about 20 inches from the hole. The birdie concluded matters and rang the sort of bell that Dye courses tend to display.
The greenside bunker is not a problem for the defending champ.
Scottie Scheffler’s birdie at 16 moves him back into a share of the lead @THEPLAYERS. pic.twitter.com/aEi7onLZPE
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 17, 2024
Asian Tour @ International Series Macau: Catlin earns playoff victory
There are two sorts of golfers that compete on the Asian Tour, which makes no secret of its alliance with the LIV. The first are the AT stalwarts, the ones who play as golfers have always played, with little guarantee and much pride. The others are the ones who compete on the LIV, eschewing both risk and pride for the guaranteed payday. Their deal costs them world ranking points, so they play in AT events, hoping to qualify for golf’s major events.
This week in Macau, one of those LIV golfers shot 60 on Sunday and did not win the tournament. Hard to believe, you say? Aye, but when another golfer shoots 59 in the third round, follows it up with a 65 on day four, then makes overtime birdie twice at the par-five closer, the razor’s edge of great golf is sharpened. Thus did it happen with American John Catlin and Spaniard David Puig.
It was Catlin who signed for 59, and it took a twisting, eagle putt at the last to enshrine the first-ever, sub-60 on the Asian Tour. It was Puig who closed the gap on Sunday with a 60 of his own, which featured a bogey at the lengthy fifth hole, but was followed by seven birdies and an eagle over the next 13 holes. Catlin had a six-feet putt for the regulation win, but missed. In extra time, Puig nearly holed for eagle at 18, then tapped in for birdie. Catlin’s second danced along the OOB perimeter, before ending on an access road. His drop and pitch left him another six feet to remain alive, and this time, he converted.
At the second go-round of the par-5 finisher, Puig found the green in two, but took three putts from nearly 50 feet. Catlin confronted another challenging pitch for his third, and once again, his wedge game won the day. He tapped in for birdie and the win.
5??9?? ? @JohnCatlin59 eagles the 18th to shoot the first 59 on the Asian Tour ?? #whereitsAT #ThisISEverything #InternationalSeries @intseriesgolf pic.twitter.com/RV9gYy1SIp
— Asian Tour (@asiantourgolf) March 16, 2024
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