Connect with us

News

3M Open betting tips and selections

Published

on

Welcome to the first week of a new installment of betting tips from Andy Lack, staff writer and host of the Pick of the Pup Golf Show, a weekly golf betting podcast.

We’ll kick things off with the 3M Open. The PGA Tour travels to the TPC Twin Cities this week in Blaine, Minnesota, a course known for its generous fairways and an abundance of water hazards. That’s right, water comes into play on 14 holes on TPC Twin Cities, so avoiding big numbers and still taking advantage of scorable opportunities will be of paramount importance.

Let’s dig into my outright selections.

Bubba Watson (35-1, DraftKings)

The 12-time PGA Tour winner is quietly putting together a run of some incredibly impressive golf. Watson has now made seven cuts in a row, with four top-20s, including a contending performance at the Travelers, and a sixth-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage.

The main reason for optimism is the return of his approach play. Watson gained 5.3 strokes on approach in his most recent start, good for his best iron week since October. Iron play has proven to be paramount at TPC Twin Cities, with top-10 finishers gaining an average of 4.5 strokes on approach across two editions.

35-1 is a fair number on the two-time Masters champion, who is trending positively in the ball-striking department.

Emiliano Grillo (40-1, William Hill)

Emiliano Grillo fits a similar profile of Watson, a ball-striking extraordinaire who has shown recent top-end ability on approach. Over his last 36 rounds, the former Frys.com Open champion ranks second in strokes gained approach, ninth in proximity from 200 yards plus, and third in birdies or better. In my cumulative ranking of approach stats, Grillo laps the field as the best iron player teeing it up this week.

As is always the case with Argentina native, the putter is a concern, yet Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa may have shown Grillo the roadmap by finishing first and second here with nuclear irons and a field average putter.

Keegan Bradley (50-1, BetMGM)

While Grillo might slightly outpace Keegan Bradley in iron play, the former PGA champion is not far behind. Over his last 36 rounds, Bradley ranks third in strokes gained approach, fifth in proximity from 200 yards plus, and third in opportunities gained.

Prior to the Open, where he missed the cut by a stroke, Bradley gained 5.5 strokes on approach at the Rocket Mortgage, and 4.3 at the Travelers in his prior two starts. The Vermont native has lost strokes on approach just once this season.

Bradley has a bankable skill-set I can trust, and 50-1 feels a fair price in a field lacking an abundance of elite talent.

Doug Ghim (66-1, BetMGM)

Find a narrative. Stick with it. I’m selecting the best iron players in this field and praying that one of them putts well. One of them has to right?

Over his last 36 rounds, Ghim ranks fourth in strokes gained approach, first in proximity from 175-200 yards, and first in greens in regulation gained. The University of Texas product was a highly touted amateur who feels primed for a breakthrough on a larger stage.

The irons have been elite from day one, and we’ve seen slow, yet progressive improvements with his driver and putter. I’m willing to bet this is the week it all clicks.

Jhonattan Vegas (70-1, DraftKings)

While Vegas is known more-so for his off the tee prowess than his iron play, I have a hard time passing up on the big-hitting Venezuelan on a wide open track where he can really let the driver loose.

Over his last 36 rounds, Vegas ranks 22nd in birdies or better gained, ninth in greens in regulation gained, and fourth in driving distance. While he may not possess the same approach chops as Grillo, Bradley, or Ghim, Vegas’ irons are certainly trending in that direction.

The three-time PGA Tour winner has gained over 3.5 strokes on approach in three consecutive starts. Sign me up.

Scott Stallings (150-1, BetMGM)

This feels like a big number for Scott Stallings, who was 70-1 just a week ago at the John Deere Classic, and a popular selection at that.

While the 55th-place finish at the John Deere might have disappointed some, his ball-striking remained solid and he simply couldn’t buy a putt. Stallings has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in three consecutive starts.

Unlike some of my other selections, the three-time PGA Tour winner carries a more reliable putter as well. Stallings’ position on the betting board had the biggest discrepancy from my numbers. This was a must-bet for me.

Your Reaction?
  • 0
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK0

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Pingback: 3M Open DraftKings picks – GolfWRX

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

News

Morikawa solves Royal St. George’s for 2021 Open Championship title

Published

on

It’s known that Ian Fleming wrote a great bit of his James Bond series of tales from a cottage near Royal St. George’s, in Sandwich, England. It’s less known that the selected site for the pivotal match between Bond the hero and Auric Goldfinger the villain, took place at a renamed RSG. Fleming christened his links Royal St. Mark’s. Finally, on a sad note, the elected club captain Fleming passed away mere weeks before he would assume the position, and so his portrait does not hang on the walls of the RSG clubhouse. On this 18th day of July, 2021, a new captain did not play his way in. Instead, a Champion Golfer of the Year was recognized for the 15th time at this links and for the 149th time overall.

It would be interesting to ask the competitors if they considered Sandwich to be a putter’s course. My guess is that they would say “no.” More than that, it played this week as an approach course, and then as a driving course. Since writers and fans lead mundane lives, they like to fish around for a weakness in a player, forgetting that every golfer that tees it up is world-class.

With Collin Morikawa, they suggest that putting is not his strong suit. They forget that he worked with Mark O’Meara months back, adjusting his grip on shorter putts. He ultimately adopted the modified pencil, or modified saw, grip that he used with great success all week.

On Sunday, as his playing partner and others struggled around him, and as Jordan Spieth surged, Collin Morikawa made putt after putt of all lengths, shapes, and flavors. At week’s end, his average of 1.54 putts per green in regulation was exactly .01 behind the tournament leaders. So much for a weakness.

Flip the script to Morikawa’s perceived strength: his approach play. Over the course of the week’s four rounds, the eventual champion hit this percentage of greens in regulation: 72-83-66-77. Over the 72 holes, he putted for birdie or better three-quarters of the time. Unless you’re the world’s worst short-game practitioner from off the green, and on it, for that matter, those numbers are in your favor.

Morikawa knew instinctively when to land a ball dozens of yards shy of the putting surface, and when to fly it to the crevice. He found shelves and hollows all week long, and he was one of two golfers all week to post four rounds in the 60s. For the unfortunate Jordan Spieth, his quartet of sub-70s was not enough to sequester the Claret Jug for a second time.

Intangibles? He had them, too. Deep breaths, closed eyes, anticipated trajectories — it all led to trust and execution. When he got in trouble, as happens with champions, Morikawa joined his vision with the land, found a trace, and followed it back to safety.

Congratulations to the 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year, on his second major tournament victory. Let the pundits predict if and when Collin Morikawa will complete the career grand slam, and how difficult it will be for him to win a U.S. Open and a Masters.

For now, leave them to their augury and their conjecture. There is no better walk in golf than this one, and Louis Oosthuizen, who lost out to Morikawa this year, does know. He walked it in 2010, at the home of golf. Today, it was the turn of someone else, someone we may be fortunate to watch play and smile for many years.

Your Reaction?
  • 17
  • LEGIT2
  • WOW1
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

News

5 things we learned Saturday at the British Open

Published

on

For a third consecutive day, Royal St. George’s golf course provided ample opportunity for golfers to make moves up the leaderboard. As with all potions and recipes, knowing the proper amount of each ingredient was critical. For many, knowing which ingredients to leave out, and which ones to incorporate, was also decisive. Too many drivers, too much draw, too great a risk into a particular green, all resulted in lost shots and descents. By day’s end, most of the expected players were still in contention, ensuring that Sunday’s march across the storied links of RSG, sandwiched between Prince’s and Royal Cinque Ports, will be memorable.

Our memory is fading, but we do know five things that we learned today. Share them with us, won’t you?

1. Driving Suez

As Bryson DeChambeau continued his search for a new realm of golf performance, his climb up the leader board stalled. He made a double at nine and a bogey at 13 and stepped to the tee of the 14th at Sandwich at 3 over on the day. With nothing to lose, the scientist proceeded to bang driver OVER the crossing hazard known as Suez Canal. The carry was measured at 340 yards to find fairway, and DeChambeau’s tee ball ended 366 from its point of origin. His wedge approach barely missed its tiny target front left, ending in the guarding bunker. With a deft touch, Bryson got up and down for his first birdie on the day. Given the glee of the online announcers, we bore witness to a first-ever event with that swing of the driver.

2. Louis, Collin, not fade away

Louis Oosthuizen and Collin Morikawa began day three in the same pairing, separated by a pair of strokes. Morikawa began to fade with bogeys on two of his first five holes. Recalling that he was a PGA champion just a few years back, the young Californian reset and rebounded. He played the final 13 holes in minus 4, posted 68 on the day, and made up a stroke on the leader.

Oosthuizen’s front nine was ideal. He turned in 33 thanks to birdies on seven and nine. At that point in the round, the top challenge to the South African’s lead was Jordan Spieth, who also turned well on day three. Oosthuizen struggled a bit coming home carding two bogeys and one birdie, but Spieth struggled more. That will be discussed further on. As for Louis, the 2010 Open champion, his birdie at 16 renewed his lead over Morikawa. The two will partner for a second consecutive day on Sunday, and odds favor one of them to depart with the Claret Jug’s suitcase.

3. Who else remains?

Despite closing with three bogeys on his last eight holes, Jordan Spieth sits just three behind the 54-hole medalist. He has been the most impressive when it comes to making birdies of all the leaders. What he needs to solve for Sunday is how to continue this while eliminating that. “That” would be the bogeys, the lost shots, the anxious, hurried swings. His three major titles suggest that he knows how to do this, but it has been since 2017 that he hoisted major hardware. On Sunday, he might do so again.

Corey Conners and Scottie Scheffler are the most intriguing new names on the leader board. Each has played with composure and expertise — not just this week but over the past 18 months. And they’ve done so in other major championships. They’ve suffered the lumps, bumps, and bruises of also-rans and almost-weres along the way, and both appear ready to shed that baggage at Sandwich.

4. Who went away?

Dustin Johnson did. As quickly as he ascended on Friday, he derailed on Saturday. Not in fabulous, dramatic fashion, but little by little. He ended 3 over on the day and minus 4 for the week. As little as 2 under on the day would have seated him in one of the final two groups on Sunday, but 2021 was not to be DJ’s year at the Open. Rory McIlroy came and went even quicker. He was 4 under on the front nine, and 3 over on the back. His woe-ridden face, sagging shoulders, and quickened pace said it all: The tournament was his for the taking, and he forgot how.

Brooks Koepka, Emiliano Grillo, and Andy Sullivan also struggled on Saturday, as did the aforementioned Bryson DeChambeau. The common thread was trying too much and not accepting what the course offered. The wind was up, but not to a flamboyant degree, just enough to topple wayward strikes toward sand and higher grass.

5. Who wins on Sunday?

This guy. Two Open titles in the same year.

Your Reaction?
  • 7
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL1
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK4

Continue Reading

News

5 things we learned: Friday at the British Open

Published

on

Yesterday we hinted that the morning and afternoon waves at Royal St. George’s (aka Sandwich) were mostly equal, in terms of weather conditions and impact. Others observed that the winds picked up in the afternoon but, in all honesty, they weren’t that different. Perhaps a stroke was lost, but nothing like we’ve seen in past Opens. Despite exaggerated warnings of difficult morning conditions on Friday by some outlets, two scores of 64, one of 65, and two of 66 were reported as players moved up the board, into contention.

Today, the cut danced back and forth between plus 1 and plus 2, before finally settling on the former. 77 golfers reached the tee for round three, including Bryson DeChambeau, who played the final five holes in minus 2 to make the cut on the number. From all these tidbits, we’ve extracted five things learned from Friday at the 149th Open Championship. Have a glance with us.

1. Magnificent Matthias

It’s rare that we lead with someone chasing silver, rather than gold, but when an amateur signs for a 65 at Royal St. George’s, the die is cast and the route, selected. Germany’s Matthias Schmid, who recently completed his time at the University of Louisville, began day two at four shots beyond par. By morning’s conclusion, he had regained five with a bogey-free 65, and sat at minus-one on the week, safely inside the cut line. Twice the winner of the European Amateur, Schmid is currently the 12th-ranked amateur in the world, and is playing in his second Open Championship. Schmid’s round equaled the lowest ever posted by one who plays for glory and not for money. China’s Yuxin Lin is the only other amateur currently on the safe side of the plus-1 cut wall. Schmid and Lin will do their own battle this weekend, hoping to claim the low amateur’s silver medal.

2. Gigantic Jigger Thomson holes in one to gain a Saturday tee time

It seems like everyone wanted to make it to the weekend, but none did it in more spectacular spectacular fashion than Jonathan Thomson. The Englishman measures in at six feet nine inches tall, but made bogey at 15 to drop to plus 1, exactly on the cut line. With one swing of his iron at the 16th, Thomson move to 1 under par with an improbable ace. He followed that with birdie at 17 and stands proudly at minus 2 through 36 holes. Let’s all raise a jigger of whatever to the welcome figure of Jonathan Thomson.

3. Mighty Collin

Despite making his Open debut on the most psychologically challenging of the Open rota of courses, Collin Morikawa proved to be the class of the early set of Friday tee times. Paired with Corey Conners (who made the cut) and Sebastián Múñoz (who did not), Morikawa posted seven birdies through his first 14 holes. He drove poorly at 13 and 14 (bunker and thick rough) but escaped for par and birdie at each hole. His only blemish was a bogey at the 15th. The nearly-500 yard par four is playing first in difficulty through 1.5 rounds, and the California native missed a third consecutive fairway with his driver. Another recovery was not in the cards, with Morikawa ultimately missing a five-feet putt for his par.

Offer any player in the field an even-par total after missing three consecutive fairway, and he’ll most likely accept the deal. After the morning wave, Morikawa sat three ahead of South Africa’s Daniel Van Tonder, who negotiated five birdies from the course after a fifth-hole bogey set him in arrears on the day.

4. “I’m still number one” Johnson stands at seven deep

With all the heroics of the first two days at Sandwich, add one more name to the mix: Dustin Johnson, he of two major titles and a near-miss the last time the Open visited Royal St. George’s. The tall man from South Carolina had himself a day on Friday, posting seven birdies against two bogeys for 65. He moved from minus 2 to minus 7, good for a tie for fourth spot with Scottie Scheffler and Dylan Fritelli. Johnson had bogey at the 3rd and 15th holes, but made birdie at the last to position himself for a weekend charge.

He wasn’t the only big name to make a sizable move on day two. U.S. Open champion Jon Rahm had 64 to reach minus 5, and Brooks Koepka had 66 to reach the same figure. Oh, and don’t forget defending champion Shane Lowry, who carded 65 on day two to reach four-under par. The weekend on the southwest coast of England promises a memorable champion and an even-more memorable slate of challengers.

5. Louis part touis

You didn’t think we’d forgotten him, did you? The major champion golfer of the year is working hard, hard, hard to become the Champion Golfer of the Year for a second time. Oosthuizen played spectacular golf for a second consecutive day, and reached the 34th hole of the week at 12 under par. He made four at the par-three, antepenultimate hole, but still managed to finish at 129 for two rounds, a new championship record. His performance to date is just two better than early leader Morikawa, but is historic in a way that demands we pay little attention to that late-round hiccough. Oosthuizen posted four birdies on the day, an concluded a sizzling, three-hole stretch on the inward half with an eagle-three at the par-5 14th.

Your Reaction?
  • 8
  • LEGIT0
  • WOW0
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending