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Carry Distance vs. Swing Speed Chart

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Per a suggestion in the comment section of my last article called “How Far Should You Hit Your Golf Clubs?“, the purpose of this post is to summarize all of the carry distance versus swing speed data that was being discussed in to a summarized reference chart.

Several things to note about the data in the chart below are:

  • The PGA Tour and LPGA Tour numbers were pulled from the Trackman website in 2010.
  • The Senior Tour numbers were calculated by taking the 2012 mean driving distance of 273.4 yards per drive on the Senior Tour and back-calculating the other numbers based on the PGA Tour’s average driving efficiency of 2.58 yards per mph of club head speed.
  • The average estimated PGA Tour club lofts were taken from 30 players by gathering 2010 club data listed on player websites, what’s in the bag articles and videos, and specifications numbers listed on manufacturer websites. It’s not listed on the chart, but for your interest, the average GW/SW was 53.9 degrees and average LW or highest lofted club was 59.7 degrees.
  • The 19.2 degrees that is listed for the 5-wood, hybrid, and 3-iron is an average of the club(s) each player used that was between the 3-wood and 4-iron.  This was done because there is such a large variance of wood/hybrid/iron club choice to fill this distance slot from player to player.
  • All remaining carry distance data (60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 130 and 140) was calculated based on the average PGA Tour carry distances.
  • The LPGA Tour Trackman data didn’t have numbers listed for a hybrid or 3-iron.  Rather they listed a 7-wood carry distance of 174 yards.
  • There are limitations to the data gathering, calculations, etc., listed here, so please just use it as a rough guide for yourself.

Here is the chart. For charts updated at the end of every season, visit SwingManGolf.com.

Carry Distance vs Swing Speed Chart

Carry Distance Swing Speed Chart

I hope you find it useful!

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Jaacob Bowden is Coach, Trainer, and Professional Golfer, keen on exploring golf and life’s broader lessons while offering coaching and swing speed training through JaacobBowden.com and SwingManGolf.com. With a history of driving remarkable golfing achievements, Jaacob intertwines his sport passion with holistic living. His writings reflect this blend, offering readers insights into improving both their game and their lives. Explore JaacobBowden.com and SwingManGolf.com to unlock a new level of golfing prowess and holistic enrichment.

100 Comments

100 Comments

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  4. Charles Christian

    Sep 15, 2015 at 7:47 pm

    I find this all very interesting and it seems pretty accurate first of all most people are not going to swing 120 mph and hit the ball 310ish yards. The pro’s can do it because they have been practicing most of their lives and have equipment that is exactly fitted to them. Plus, the fairways are in better condition and give them lots of roll.
    I can relate to one of the golfers who stated he can relate more to the LPGA golfers. I personally think they have more skill because the just do not smash the ball all over the course and over all the obstacles they actually play the course – but of course a lot better than any average player.
    Personally, according to this I swing 75-85 mph. I have never actually had my swing speed taken which I should but it seems to be about right with this. Sometimes I hit a driver 180 or 210 yards with a good roll etc. I often find myself in the fairway while the other golfers drive it further but into the woods and they have to hack their way out.
    I also had a playing lesson with my female professional and she could hit her 7 iron about 140 which is about the same as the LPGA players, so I am guessing her swing speed is 90-93 ish. I would believe that teaching pro’s have about the speed as a lot of touring pro’s do. Even though I could not hit it as far as her I found the distance not to be intimidating.
    A 9 foot put is equal in score to a 300 yard drive. I would say improve your putting !!

  5. Straightdriver235

    Jan 20, 2015 at 10:25 am

    I’m wondering what the lofts were for the senior and lpga? Why only give the PGA tour lofts? From this data it seems like s.s. efficiency is around x2.40 for carry, and x2.58 for total rollout, but many of us play on conditions that are far different from tour courses… this starts to show up clearly that many on the lpga really require some roll out. In my case there is no roll out, the course is carved through a swamp, so what I am after is maximum carry. I’m wondering what set ups on courses like that are for the pros? Do the pros switch out drivers based on the conditions, and if so, what do they do for that? According to this data, if they don’t switch out drivers for situations maxing out carry, or situations maxing out the value of roll they are losing strokes. Of course, drainage at many of the tour courses minimizes this issue, but not always. If they do switch, what switches do they make, and are these switches fairly universal? To me all of this data must take into consideration turf conditions, and hardness of fairways contrasted to how punitive is the rough; i.e., an old fashioned U.S. Open course where roll out is not really desired much. It would seem the need to switch would be particularly acute on the LPGA tour… if the fairways are wet for these gals they are going to play a very different course than when it is dry… considering for them follout constitutes 1/7th of total distance they must have numbers that will allow more carry, or more roll on the conditions. Same for you on long drive competitions. Correct?

  6. derek

    Jan 1, 2015 at 1:17 am

    Hey Jaacob, r u still using the 1 iron golf system? all clubs? I have a set and have had great shots but haven’t fully commitred yet. Your thoughts? Do u have the new pro line clubs?
    TIA
    Derek

  7. 1badbadger

    Nov 11, 2014 at 7:21 am

    Jed, I think one of two things is happening…either your swing speed is higher than you think it is, or you’re not hitting it that far. Mathematically, the ball can only go so far with a given swing speed. If things like elevation changes, wind and other atmospheric conditions are eliminated, an 86 mph swing speed with a driver will be right about 215 yds. Real-world distance is going to be approx. 10-15 yds longer, so 225-230 yds is realistic for an 86 mph swing speed. It’s possible to hit a 260 or 270 yd drive, but if you’re averaging that distance your clubhead speed would be over 100 mph.

    • don butler

      Dec 30, 2015 at 11:05 am

      there are a lot of comments stating my driver swing speed is this or that. My swing speed based on one of those ssr radar things ranges from mid 80’s to mid 90’s depending on how warmed up i am and i play at sea level. One thing is that a lot of courses one only uses his driver say 10 times so the 18th hole you’ve finally warmed up enough to max out your speed but by then if you’ve been walking and its warm out you might also be a little fatigued.
      When I have brought my radar thing with me to the course and max out my speed say about 93-95 I still do not get 235 or whatever, more like 225 and that’s with about 10 yards of roll. I’ve tried teeing higher and smacking it on the upswing but this causes some swing problems and not as consistent of a square hit. Of course around here there is always about a 10-15 mph wind and seems always either cross or in your face. When there is finally a downwind hole tend to get all juiced up and wind up popping it 200 yards

  8. Ben

    Nov 8, 2014 at 2:44 am

    According to this, my speed is above 120 with my normal 295 carry. According to science and launch monitors and swing analyzers, I’m 117. I don’t think this chart takes into effect being perfect fit for a club. If you optimize, you can beat the chart. I’m living proof of that. Also I don’t fly my 7 iron 184. More like 177 to 180 range to be exact.

    • TJ Horton

      Mar 22, 2015 at 10:19 pm

      That’s funny, i carry my 8 175 but i cant carry a driver over 285… i need a fitting.

  9. JEFF

    Nov 5, 2014 at 12:06 pm

    Why look at this? How will this help? STUPID!

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  15. gregory suto

    Jun 21, 2014 at 1:27 pm

    110 swing speed
    285 carry

    8 inches

  16. Beneoo

    May 21, 2014 at 12:36 pm

    Hi Jaacob,

    Can you re-post the chart? I am not able to find any chart in this page.

    Thank you.

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Jun 29, 2014 at 7:22 am

      Hi Beneoo, yes, I’m not sure where the chart went.

      I’ve sent the editor an email and asked him if he’ll get it re-posted.

  17. James

    Apr 2, 2014 at 3:42 pm

    I went in for a club fitting last week and I was hitting a 7 iron 177, 186 with roll, and had a club head speed of between 88-90 MPH.

    • gfds

      May 28, 2014 at 9:43 am

      haha no way, unless your topping your balls or have the most super strong frip in the world making that 7 iron a 1 iron lol.

      • CD

        Jun 2, 2014 at 4:34 pm

        That’s easily possible – 7i, 86mph, 175.9 carry, 183 total, smash 1.41 was me Saturday. 6″ tall and 80kgs

        • Uphill both ways

          Nov 1, 2014 at 9:22 pm

          How big are your hands if you are 6 inches tall? Are your clubs standard length, if so how flat are they?

      • louis

        Oct 29, 2014 at 5:50 pm

        how do you figure it is impossible?

    • Uphill both ways

      Nov 1, 2014 at 9:20 pm

      Bullshism. if you swing hard enough to hit it 177 in the air, its not gonna roll anywhere let alone 9 yards. Get off the stupid computers and go play on grass. then you can actually see how far it goes, see “repair hallmarks”.

      • MHendon

        Nov 10, 2014 at 2:03 pm

        Yeah that’s launch monitor numbers for you. But it’s calculating based on a hit into a firm fairway not to a receptive green.

  18. Louis DeSantis

    Mar 7, 2014 at 10:58 pm

    Although it’s fun to watch the guys on the pro tour hit the ball as far as they do, I find myself watching more and more of the LPGA tournaments as I can relate to the clubs they are hitting. And your chart confirms this as well as I’m just about exactly in line with their numbers and recently was averaged at 93 mph driver swing speed. I guess that in my mid 50’s that’s not too bad after playing only 3 years and if the ladies can shoot the low scores they do hitting the clubs they do, I should just concern myself with getting better and more accurate than worry about gaining distance as it seems many are preoccupied with. I also find it interesting that when I’m paired with other fellows at the course, there are often claims of being able to drive the ball 270 yards, and I often find I’m out driving these fellows with what I know are my 235-245 yard drives. Any way, great article and thanks so much for compiling and sharing this information. Louis

  19. jt

    Mar 1, 2014 at 4:11 pm

    The yardages on the chart are dead on for my SS of 112. I am within a yard of every stated yardage on every single club.

  20. Joey cosper

    Feb 25, 2014 at 3:44 pm

    Jaacob,
    According to your chart my swing speed is 110. I was fitted a year ago with the 913d2 driver with a regular shaft. At the time i was a 26 handicap and much lower swing speed I am now down to a 10 handicap. My swing has changed a lot and my drives now ballon. I have a average swing tempo, what shaft would you recomend? A stiff flex or a x flex? I am currently looking at the fujikura fuel shaft beacuse it is a low launch and low spin shaft.

    • Cullan

      Mar 5, 2014 at 2:02 am

      110 is right on the line between stiff and extra stiff shafts. Some companies are set up stiffer than others, and it also depends on what type of feel you like in the shaft. I’m not as familiar with Fujukura shafts but I know that a swing speed of 110 would fall within the extra stiff category for Mitsubishi Rayon and would fall in the stiff category for Aldila shafts.

      If you enjoy your current shaft you could always have it tip trimmed for some extra stiffness.

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Jun 29, 2014 at 7:25 am

      Hi Joey,

      My friend and fellow GolfWRX writer Tom Wishon maintains a list of reputable and qualified custom club fitters.

      http://wishongolf.com/find-a-clubfitter/

      See if you can find one close to you. They’ll be able to get you a much better recommendation with an in-person evaluation.

  21. nick rumpza

    Feb 14, 2014 at 4:17 am

    Jaacob.. 2 questions..1. I live in south dakota where its arctic tundra 6 months a year.. What can i do to keep my swing on point during winter months? 2. I was recently at a pro shop simulator that told me my club head speed was anywhere from 118 to 128.. I didnt feel like i was swinging hard but those numbers seem high.Im 6’4 if height matters, just wondering your thoughts on it..

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Jun 29, 2014 at 7:33 am

      Hi Nick,

      There are a number of things you can do…for example, working in front of a mirror indoors, stepping outside briefly with a video camera to check-in on your swing, visualizing for a few minutes each day, hitting balls in to a net in your garage, etc. Perhaps there is an indoor range near you. Hitting balls on the pro shop simulator you mentioned is also an option.

      If you want to work on your swing speed, the winter time (or any time really) is a great time to do that. It seems like you already swing fast (typical amateurs are around 93 mph, Tour players average about 113, and top long drivers can average in the mid-140s), but it’s always nice to have more. Check out Swing Man Golf for more info on swing speed training.

      By chance do you know what kind of radar it was?

      Trackman and Flightscope X2s are generally considered quite accurate. The Sports Sensors Swing Speed Radar is also a good at-home option (although they read slightly higher because they measure the fastest moving part of the club head verses having an additional algorithm to figure out speed at the center of the club). Those are available at Swing Man Golf as well.

      Hope that helps a bit!

    • ron bleau

      Dec 28, 2014 at 9:42 am

      Any relation to Gene?

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    Oct 22, 2013 at 9:59 pm

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  24. David Burge

    Oct 22, 2013 at 6:33 am

    G’day Jaacob, from Sydney, Australia.

    We don’t seem to have the same freely available technology that you guys have in the States. We also use metres, but I’ll convert to yards.

    I reckon my carry distances are:
    Driver: 215m = 234 yards

    6 iron: 148m = 161 yards
    7 iron: 140m = 153 yards
    8 iron: 130m = 142 yards
    9 iron: 119m = 129 yards
    Wedge: 110m = 120 yards

    So I reckon my swing speed is probably high 90s according to your chart.

    I’m a fairly good golfer and play off very low single figures but don’t hit it far enough to be any better.

    Any idea what I should be looking for in terms of spin rates and launch angle and perhaps even the best equipment for my swing speed? I’m using a PingG15 driver with a stiff TFC149D shaft and irons are oldish – Taylor Made Tour Preferred with Dynamic Gold SL s300 shafts. Any shaft tips particularly would be much appreciated.

    Great blog by the way. Came across it by accident but I’ll check out your other articles too. The best thing here down under is that we get to play 12 months of the year!

    • Bob

      Oct 29, 2013 at 3:37 pm

      David,

      I think our games are similar and the numbers you listed were very close to mine so I thought I’d share what I’ve recently learned from a professional who is fitting me.

      We tested several drivers and shafts. At our swing speed a stiff shaft produces less distance. My pro says a player should use a shaft with as much flex as they can control. For me the best results come from a regular flex shaft and 10.5 degree loft. I went from 235 yards of carry with a stiff 9.5 degree to 250 yards of carry with a regular flex 10.5 degree (a used Nike SQ DYMO STR8-FIT 10.5° Driver ProForce AxivCore Regular Flex).

      Of course the only way to be sure is demo some clubs. I was able to do it with an assistant pro and a Trackman.

      I have the same distances on my irons but they are big soled Calloways, which were nice when I was a 17 handicap but 5 years later I’m a 7. The bigger the sole the higher the launch angles and as I’m improving I am hitting my irons really high, so I’m upgrading irons but again will go with regular flex.

      BTW I tested last year’s Taylor Made RBZ 3 wood and it was 15 yards longer than anything new. That club is going in my bag!

      Cheers!

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Jun 29, 2014 at 7:42 am

      Hi David,

      I’ve never been to Sydney but I have been to Canberra and Melbourne. Australia is a great place.

      For club head speeds in the high 90s…

      – For maximum carry distance, I would target you at a 15-16 degree launch angle and 2500-2600 rpm for spin rate.
      – For maximum total distance, I would target you at a 12-13 degree launch angle and 1900-2000 rpm for spin rate.

      So what I’d tell you depends on how you want to optimize. Higher spin rates are generally more accurate, so that would be good for tight courses. If you need to carry trouble or not run through dogleg fairways, I’d favor the carry numbers. If you have hard fairways and an open course, perhaps going for total distance is better.

      For equipment recommendations, my friend and fellow GolfWRX writer Tom Wishon maintains a list of reputable club fitters here -> http://wishongolf.com/find-a-clubfitter/. See if you can find someone in your area. They’ll be able to work with you in-person to get you dialed in.

      Hope that helps!

  25. Aaron

    Sep 21, 2013 at 10:07 pm

    Jacob, thank you for sharing this.
    I just came from Scheels where the simulator said I had a swing speed of 80mph. I don’t really know if I was doing a partial swing, but all my clubs play at a 110-113 mph swing speed distance (I hit my 9i 150yds all day, my 3W 250, and my driver over 270 if I don’t slice). I use 1995 knock-offs clubs, with oversize irons.
    Is this possible or did I happen to use a partial swing in the simulator?
    I am in the market for new irons and am debating shaft flex options.

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Sep 25, 2013 at 6:07 am

      Yup, no problem.

      Do you know what kind of simulator it is?

      Have you ever tested yourself before and got speed numbers closer to what you’d expect given your distances?

  26. Scott

    Jul 30, 2013 at 1:07 am

    Jaacob, do you have the distances for the gap and sand wedge for these different speeds?

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Aug 11, 2013 at 5:43 am

      Hi Scott, no I don’t have numbers for a gap or sand wedge…partly because there’s so much variance in the lofts for those clubs. Plus, a lot of guys don’t take full swings with gap or sand wedges.

      But if you want to play around with a little algebra and plot your numbers in Microsoft Excel, you could probably get a pretty good estimate though.

    • Matt

      Oct 19, 2014 at 10:54 pm

      Hey Scott, just to give you an idea I have a SS average of 101 and I’ll hit a 50 degree GW 105-110y; a 54 degree SW 90-95y and a 58 degree LW around 75 but I very rarely hit a full LW in a round.

  27. Gary

    Jul 25, 2013 at 4:07 pm

    My irons fall into the 113 category, but my driver and fairway woods fit in the 100 category. Any idea what could be causing that? Whenever I play I find myself being outdriven by my playing partners, but hitting less club off the tee on par 3’s and such.

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Aug 11, 2013 at 6:53 am

      Hi Gary, without knowing any other information, my first guess would be that you de-loft your clubs more than most. Possibly your ball position is too far back, your hands too far forward, or something related.

      Excessive de-loft is not necessarily a bad thing, but it could cause your irons to go farther by bringing down your trajectory.

      Similarly, your driver and wood trajectories might also be below your optimal launch angle for maximum carry and roll given your particular swing speed.

  28. Brian Copp

    May 28, 2013 at 12:00 pm

    Thanks a lot for the Chart!

    My irons are almost dead on the 100mph for distance, but my Driver is around the 90-93mph speed, which could be for a lot of reasons I’m sure.

    But, I’ve always been interested in knowing what my swing speed is and your chart at least gives me a rough idea. I’ve always wondered if I should be using a Stiff or Regular Flex shaft and I don’t really have any way to check my swing speed living in the middle of nowhere.

    I once asked the closest Fitting Center if they would let me hit 2 or 3 balls on their machine so I could find out my swing speed incase I should be using a Stiff shaft and they said they could, but it would cost me $150. I said forget it! My clubs are Regular Flex and if I’m between 90-100 I think they are probably fine.

  29. Brian Copp

    May 28, 2013 at 12:00 pm

    Thanks a lot for the Chart!

    My irons are almost dead on the 100mph for distance, but my Driver is around the 90-93mph speed, which could be for a lot of reasons I’m sure.

    But, I’ve always been interested in knowing what my swing speed is and your chart at least gives me a rough idea. I’ve always wondered if I should be using a Stiff or Regular Flex shaft and I don’t really have any way to check my swing speed living in the middle of nowhere.

    I once asked the closest Fitting Center if they would let me hit 2 or 3 balls on their machine so I could find out my swing speed incase I should be using a Regular or Stiff shaft and they said they could, but it would cost me $150. I said forget it! My clubs are Regular Flex and if I’m between 90-100 I think they are probably fine.

  30. Michael

    May 15, 2013 at 10:11 pm

    Hey. I have about a 115 mph driver swing speed and my clubs fit in between the 113 and 120 mph distances. My problem is I can carry my driver 280, but I get zero roll. There is always a ball mark and when soft my ball has spun backwards. I also hit the rest of my clubs much higher than normal. I swing up on the ball, rather than down which I guess doesn’t help. Any Ideas?

    • Jaacob Bowden

      May 16, 2013 at 10:36 am

      Hi Michael,

      If I have a driver with too much loft, I actually have that problem too.

      So my initial thought is that if you want to optimize your driver for distance, you’ll likely need a lower lofted driver.

      At 115 mph club head speed, to maximize carry and roll I would try to get you averaging around 12.1 launch angle and 2234 spin.

      Do you know your spin rate and the exact loft (not what’s stamped on it) of your driver?

      If you know those, you can do some algebra to estimate the theoretical loft you would need to get your spin to the 2234 mark. Then it would just be a matter of making some setup/swing tweaks to get your launch angle dialed in at that spin.

      • Michael

        May 18, 2013 at 9:23 am

        I have a Ping i15 8*, but it is actually 9* x-stiff proforce shaft. The driver is 45.5″ and my spin was 2574 and launch between 13-16*. I recently had cut ii down to 44″ and improved accuracy, but still hit it high.

        • Jaacob Bowden

          May 18, 2013 at 10:35 am

          Okay, yeah, that makes sense now. You’re launching it a little bit too high (which makes it land a little too steep) and you’ve also got a bit too much spin.

          I would recommend that you get exactly a 7.8* driver (some companies like Wishon Golf will hand select the lofts if you ask them). That should bring your spin down to 2234 which will help you get more roll.

          Also, with 1.2 degrees less in loft, your launch angle should come down to the 12-15* range, which is better for your swing speed than 13-16* but still a tiny bit high.

          From there, with the 7.8* head, you could move the ball back in your stance and tee it lower in very slight increments until you get to a point where you’re still swinging freely and hitting the ball solidly but launching it 11-14* or 10-13*…basically, whatever gets you averaging around 12.1*.

          Do that and you should get more roll and pick up some additional total distance. 🙂

  31. Gary Q

    May 13, 2013 at 5:52 am

    Hello. Has anyone ever heard of someone who can only carry their driver 215, can only carry their 3 iron 180-185, but carrys their 9 iron 155. I’m looking to buy al new gear soon, but don’t have a clue where to begin. I feel like I should be carrying a driver around 240-245, and a 3 iron around 195-200.

    Is their something fundamentally wrong with my swing, or do I have the wrong technology?

    • Jaacob Bowden

      May 14, 2013 at 4:03 pm

      Hi Gary, it sounds like you de-loft your clubs at impact more than most people.

      This could be from having your hands too far forward at impact, having the ball too far back in your stance, hitting the balls a little too much on the downswing, etc.

      It’s not necessarily wrong and it’s not a problem if you can hold greens with mid/long irons or you play courses where long carries with woods/driver aren’t necessary. But if that’s not your situation, it might be worth changing…be aware that you would probably give up distance with your short irons and hit them higher though (also not necessarily bad).

      How fast is your swing speed with your driver?

      Also, do you have a rough estimate on your launch angle and spin rate?

  32. Steve Smith

    May 1, 2013 at 2:41 pm

    The only other distance charts on the web (where you can put in your driver carry, or 5i distance, and they output the rest of the clubs) were just way too volatile, and seemed to have exponential differences in there, i.e. if I put in a 250 carry drive / 185 5i, which puts me right around the Sr. Tour distances, they would always have my PW around 100 yards instead of the ~130 I actually hit, which is just silly. It’s good to know that my distances are actually consistent with what they should be.

    Great chart and thank you.

  33. dennis

    Feb 23, 2013 at 6:56 pm

    Do you have a reference table also for “ideal” launch angle & spin rates?

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Mar 3, 2013 at 9:00 am

      I do! Perhaps I’ll do a future article about this.

      Shoot me an email through one of my websites and I can send them to you.

      • dennis

        Mar 9, 2013 at 5:40 am

        I will today. Thanks. I don’t think John Q Public knows as much about it as we shoule. One example is you explaining why we should move the driver ball forward & raise the tee height so we have a slight ascending swing. it sure pays off.

  34. Jim

    Feb 13, 2013 at 11:22 pm

    Help. I have my first club fitting today with my Taylormade RBZ driver. I had always wondered why it hit differently than my last regular shaft TM driver. We put it on the flex machine . . .and I find out that my regular shaft is really an
    Xflex. Wow. I guess Joe Public hasn’t figured out that club manufacturers mismark clubs with regularity. And it doesn’t seem to be just a comparison from mfr vs mfr either. The same clubs don’t seem to be the uh, same clubs.

    I also figured out that I need two inches to be cut off the club but if I do that, the swing weight will change.

    What do I do? Give TM a bunch sh. . t about it?

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Feb 14, 2013 at 5:11 am

      Hi Jim, you might look in to the clubs made by a friend of mine named Tom Wishon, who is also one of the other Featured Writers here on the GolfWRX site.

      His entire club lineup at Wishon Golf is geared towards custom fitting. If you work with one of his fitters, they can usually hand-select a particular loft to make sure you’re getting exactly what you need. He also designs the heads with multiple weight ports in the head and hosel to accommodate building drivers of various lengths at whatever swing weight you like.

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  36. Kris

    Jan 28, 2013 at 2:39 pm

    Thanks for the reply Jaacob. Good to know the spin/launch numbers I should be aiming for. Some day when I can afford lessons I’ll be sure to talk to them about my issue and the D Plane (interesting concepts). For the record, I tee it low (<1/3 of ball above driver face), about level with my front big toe, and hit it sweet or a bit high. I've tried teeing it further forward, to get the upswing, but inevitably slice when I do. My normal shot is low or a low draw. Miss is a weak slice when I don't release the club (usually hits on the toe too).
    P.S. Any sign of new Srixon balls being released? Have heard nothing about the new Zstars despite then being on tour for over 6 months :(. Love my Zs, though thinking of going XV once I run out of stock.

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Jan 29, 2013 at 7:35 am

      Sure thing, glad to help.

      Don’t know anything about the Srixon balls.

      When you say you slice…where is the ball starting off? Left of target, at target, or right of target?

      Most of where the ball starts off is where the club face was aimed at impact…then assuming a center face hit, the ball curves right due to the club face being open to the path.

      So for a pull slice, the face would be left of target and swing path even further left (path and club face issue). A slice that starts out at the target would have a face near the target but path too far left (path issue). A push slice would have the club face pointed right of the target and path at or near the target (club face issue).

      In any case, the face-to-path relationship would be what’s causing the curve. There are any number of ways to fix get the face-to-path more closed…one that you might try would be turning your left hand grip a little clockwise on the grip.

      • Kris

        Jan 29, 2013 at 10:59 am

        When it’s my normal weak slice miss, It’s a push slice (I should add for my ego that this miss occurs only about once a round with driver, and maybe twice with irons. Too much, but not constant, and usually when trouble is left). When I move the tee up with my driver trying for the higher launch angle, it’s a pull slice. My left hand is neutral, but my right hand is very strong (to the point I can see all my fingernails easily). My grip is the first thing I’ll be working on once the snow clears up, I’ll keep the left hand in mind too (tend to ignore it). I’m thinking of switching from interlocking to overlapping because I’ve tried fixing my grip repeatedly and it never sticks with me long. Thanks 🙂

        • Jaacob Bowden

          Jan 29, 2013 at 3:18 pm

          If that push slice is mostly when trouble is left, that sounds more like a mental thing. There’s multiple ways you can address that but just for starters I would make sure to consciously recognize when you think that situation might arise and just simply remind yourself right beforehand to make your normal swing. It may take a number of tries to have the courage to make the normal swing under the danger-left circumstances, but the fact that you are recognizing what is happening is a good start to changing how you respond.

          While you’re waiting for the snow to clear, look up the d-plane. Since golfers swing on a tilted arc it’s normal for some people to have a path that ends up too far left when trying to catch the ball on the upswing. You either have to adjust for that by setting up a little more aimed right, forcing your swing path more to the right, or something along those lines. Basically, something that works for you that gets your driver path more rightward (which can be somewhat counter intuitive). Again, look up the d-plane and that might make a little more sense.

          As for the face-to-path, making that left hand grip a little stronger might be enough to do the trick. Whether you interlock or overlap should be fine.

          • Kris

            Feb 9, 2013 at 5:03 pm

            Bought a covert today. Have been working on my grip, setup and swinging [very] lightly inside. Only change I’ve tried so far is lowering my back shoulder (so that I can almost touch my knee with my hand). However, when in store today (almost 2hrs!) I started hitting my old gamer, and while my ss was still ~103, and my spin ~2900, my angle was about 13°! Was amazing. And carrying almost 270. Hit literally every new driver, and the Cell, XHot and covert were all giving me ~108 ss, but all nearly 4000 spin 🙁 . About to give up and forget a new driver when the fitter brought me a Covert Performance head with 60g X silver shaft from the Tour head. Immediately noticed huge improvement. Launching 13-14, about 3000 spin, but every shot dead straight and carrying 280-285 (set 10.5° open). I’ll still be researching D-plane, but thought you’d be curious to hear my experience. Looking forward to spring! Cheers.

          • Steve Davis

            Mar 2, 2013 at 1:27 pm

            Jacob, I am asking cause I am always trying to learn this game. Do you think Kris should work on fixing his swing path? I am a scratch golfer and I get the best ideas by asking questions

        • Steve Davis

          Mar 2, 2013 at 1:25 pm

          Kris, May be none of my business, but it sound like your swing path is off bad, Should be In to In, Sounds like yours is getting outside, which is a common problem, Not to argue with what Jacob says, cause grip is an issue too, Somewhere along the way you have compensated for this swing path with a strong right hand grip, I bet your stance is closed also. This set=up leads to a low draw, or high weak slice on a miss. My suggestion would be to work to correct the swing path some at least, If you do you will find you can hit the ball further and with less misses, Do you hit short irons lower than normal? Jacob is right about what causes the curve and proper grip help that, but until you correct that swing path, you will be compensating for it in your swing,

  37. Pingback: Carry Distance vs. Swing Speed Chart | MattiTours

  38. Justin Greene

    Jan 24, 2013 at 12:32 pm

    Great article…..thank you

  39. Augustine

    Jan 22, 2013 at 6:05 pm

    AWESOME! My numbers have always been 1 more club than PGA average and now that there is a Champions Tour average as well they are exactly my numbers!

  40. Dusty

    Jan 22, 2013 at 11:07 am

    Its nice to see there is someone that knows about golf, keep up the good work.

  41. rich

    Jan 21, 2013 at 10:15 pm

    I swing at about 108-110. All my iron swing speeds are about 5-10 yards longer then the average but my driver comes in at about 5-10 yards shorter. anyone else got that problem?

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Jan 22, 2013 at 8:56 am

      Rich, it sounds like you hit the ball lower than a typical Tour player would in proportion to your swing speed. This could cause the irons to carry farther from the lower trajectory…but also cause the driver to carry shorter from having too low of a trajectory.

      Perhaps you are catching the ball fairly steeply on the downswing and/or having your hands excessively forward at impact. Neither is necessarily a bad thing. However, it could cause the situation that you are describing.

      By chance do you know your launch angle and spin rate with your driver?

      • Tom

        Jan 22, 2013 at 10:57 am

        I actually have a somewhat similar problem, according the the golf galaxy simulators my driver swing speed is about 107-108 but on the course I launch it low get only about 240 carry. On the other hand, the rest of my yardage numbers are right in line with the PGA tour average of 113mph club head speed but I hit my irons between 30-35 yards high at the apex. I’m a high spin player, but no ballooning.

        • Tom

          Jan 22, 2013 at 11:01 am

          scratch that, last time I hit on a simulator the apex was hovering around 40 yards

          • Jaacob Bowden

            Jan 22, 2013 at 12:14 pm

            Tom, do you know your launch angle and spin rate with your driver?

            At 107-108 mph, I would target you somewhere around 13 degrees on the launch angle and about 2400 rpm spin for optimizing overall distance.

      • Kris

        Jan 27, 2013 at 7:20 pm

        Wow Jaacob, I read your reply and said ‘that’s me’. I normally get about 270 drives on the course with my Superfast 1.0 Stiff 9.5, but it goes low, as do my irons. Using your chart I get above average short/mid iron distance, but lower driver. I hit a bunch of shots at my local GolfTown sim, and with my driver I was averaging 8-9 launch, and 2900-3000 spin, and 260-280 total. I came home and looked it up and I’m thinking I should be trying some higher lofts or high launching shaft (poor-ish supply teacher so using stock lol). Cheers.
        P.S. Hit every new driver but TM and Nike (super pumped to try Covert), and every driver from last year, all in stiff 9.5 and 10.5, and none came close to my 4+ yr old driver. All gave near or over 4000 spin, not as straight, and sub 10 launch.

        • Kris

          Jan 27, 2013 at 7:21 pm

          Oh, and 102-104 ss

          • Jaacob Bowden

            Jan 28, 2013 at 4:39 am

            Kris, for you at 103’ish, to optimize your distance efficiency I would try to get you around 13.5-14.0 degrees launch and about 2500 spin.

            It would require changes to accomplish…which you’d have to decide whether or not it’s worth it.

            But assuming you already hit the center of the face (hitting low on the face can raise the spin), it would probably mean going to a lower lofted driver (to bring down the spin)…and moving the ball more forward in your stance and teeing the ball up a little higher (to catch it on the upswing and get the higher launch).

            If you don’t understand the D-plane (there’s quite a bit of info about it on YouTube, Google, etc), it may help to find an instructor that understands the concept to help you with the changes because when you catch the ball on the upswing with a driver it typically requires swinging a little bit more out.

            Hope that helps. Let me know if you need any further assistance or guidance.

    • Steve Davis

      Mar 2, 2013 at 1:12 pm

      All distances have to do with set-up, grip, attack angle, and many other factors, I am a scratch golfer, and swing at 115 mph. Several years ago I could hit a 7-iron 215 yards with good height, I was playing my irons way back in my stance and really pinching the ball, thus de-lofting the club to a 3-iron, The discrepancy in your distance are probably due to ball position. a little far back on irons, a little far forward on driver; Find the club that you hit the right distance for you, set up to as usual, place a club along your toe line then 1 next to the ball 90 degrees with the other. After finding that position, position all other clubs in relation to it, ball moves a little far forward as clubs get longer, This should help you get consistency all the way to your driver

  42. Barrie Taylor

    Jan 21, 2013 at 7:58 pm

    The great mystery of driving figures is what shafts were used when looking at swing spoeeds. I dont mean R S or other I would like to see golf Shaft manufacturers and people like yourself produce figures by brands giving us distances for swing speeds on the shafts produced for comparison.

    I have swing speed of 105 ,the only way to test shafts is to buy them. If manufactures list swing speed with Distance then this would help the Club golfer choose more acuratly the right shaft for his/her swing speed.

    What can you offer us !!!!!

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Jan 22, 2013 at 9:05 am

      Barrie, you might check out some of my friend Tom Wishon’s GolfWRX articles. His profile link is http://www.golfwrx.com/author/tomwishon/.

      He’s written several pieces about shafts and shaft fitting and is as knowledgeable about equipment as anyone I’ve ever met in the golf world.

      On his Wishon Golf website, there’s also a shaft selection tool that you might find useful…his S2S (Shaft to Swing) Shaft Fitting System.

  43. bo

    Jan 21, 2013 at 3:37 pm

    was there a tempture gague used to compile these stats?

  44. G

    Jan 20, 2013 at 1:31 am

    Thank you for this! You’re awesome.

  45. Tom Allinder

    Jan 19, 2013 at 2:26 pm

    Jaacob, thank you for including Senior stats too. As I mention in a previous comment, this is an area of interest for me.

    One of the items you covered before and in this article is the PGA Tour Average Driving Efficiency (2.58 yards per mph of club head speed). It is clear, and you point it out that LPGA driving efficiency as well as long drivers is higher.

    It would strongly suggest that the men on the PGA Tour have yards to burn in the distance department for the sake of accuracy or what “fits their eye” with regard to trajectory. Items that increase driver distance (less spin, higher launch, hitting the ball on the upswing) are of less importance when your swing speed is 110+. Getting the ball into tight fairways and the ability to work the ball is more important.

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Jan 19, 2013 at 4:07 pm

      Hi Tom, I saw your other comment, thanks. Glad you are finding the numbers useful.

      I agree that this is certainly the case in some instances on the PGA Tour. A lot of these guys have been playing a certain way for a very long time.

      Even with all this new technology that is coming out these days to help assess how efficient guys are with their driving distances, it doesn’t mean it’s worth making swing changes and risking losing their tour card just for a few extra yards. Like you say, if a certain flight “fits their eye” or is comfortable and the idea is to score as low as possible, you don’t need to be the most efficient driver…provided you have “enough” speed and distance. Although it’s not an absolute, guys are showing that 104 or 105 is an adequate amount of swing speed to play on the big Tours.

      I would expect the driving efficiency for the men at the pro level will improve with the upcoming generation, though. With teachers and kids having access to this kind of information, they can get all those swing changes engrained early on.

      • Tom Allinder

        Jan 19, 2013 at 5:25 pm

        Jaacob, Absolutely agree that the younger generation is getting more out of the equipment. They learn all about equipment at an early age and they learn what numbers mean, what center of gravity means and all sorts of other terms that did not even “exist” (they did, I just wasn’t aware of them) 20 years ago.

        Match that up with fitness and you have really long and accurate players… hard to argue with that combo!

        I am really enjoying your articles. Thanks so much for your contribution to the golf community!

  46. d.chu27

    Jan 19, 2013 at 2:12 pm

    I swing around 120 mph with my driver. The numbers seem accurate. But my irons are similar to the 113mph distances. Is that normal and does anyone else have this problem.

    • Jaacob Bowden

      Jan 19, 2013 at 3:54 pm

      Hi d.chu27, I actually experience a similar thing. For me, it’s from having a little bit of a flip-type of release (even with the lead wrist being flat at impact) combined with a somewhat vertical shaft at impact.

      To use the kinesiologic terms, a flip-release would mean a dorsiflexion of the lead hand through impact and a palmar flexion of the rear hand.

      It’s not necessarily a bad thing or something that is critical to change.

      Flip-releases are generally pretty good for hitting the ball with some pop and yet with less deviance in ball flight curvature. For me, this release combined with the more vertical shaft causes some extra spin and a higher shot height (can be good or bad depending on the person) from the increased spin loft. The downside is the ball speed and smash factor can go down a bit. Depending on your trajectory, that could possibly mean some carry distance loss.

      Does this sound like what happens for you?

      Alternatively, what device are you using to get the 120 mph number?

      For example, in my testing Sports Sensors Swing Speed Radars (SSR) tend to run 5-12% higher (depending on how you move the club through the hitting area) because the Doppler radar measures the fastest moving part of the club versus a Trackman or X2 which has an additional algorithm to calculate the center face speed. If you were using something like an SSR, your actual Trackman speed would be a little bit slower…which could also explain part of the discrepancy.

      • Alex Hom

        Apr 6, 2013 at 12:49 am

        Jaacob,

        I also have a flip type of release/swing. That’s also probably why I use 2 gloves. It does give me a high ball flight, but also a great degree of accuracy. It’s hard, because the golf instructors always try to change my grip to get rid of the flip.

    • Mike

      Jun 29, 2013 at 10:48 am

      It’s not a problem – it’s normal – check out this link: http://www.andrewricegolf.com/tag/clubhead-speed-on-pga-tour/ – on average on the tour clubhead speed drops 2 mph with each club.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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