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Barney Adams on changing the golf ball to reduce distance

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The subject has been bandied about for years—a shorter ball, two balls one for the tour and one for amateurs. I will unequivocally state that I’m 100 percent against either approach. 

The first reason is historical and maybe the weakest. Golf is one of the few games where amateurs can play the same equipment, same courses lacking only the skills of the professionals. It’s this relationship that has been a significant factor in driving participation of the financial backbone of amateur golf.

To cop an old phrase, “If it isn’t broke don’t fix it.” Further, if something is done that essentially makes courses play longer, it’s playing with fire. The game has lost thousands of its most loyal participants over the last 20 years and making courses longer and more difficult isn’t on page one of the manual to change that trend.

The second and much stronger reason is basic economics. There are companies that have invested tens if not hundreds of millions over the years to produce optimally performing golf balls within the posted rules. Their efforts are closely examined by the enforcers of the rules and not put to market without a passing grade. To say to them, “Well the game has changed; what you’ve done is no longer applicable. Here are the new rules.” Further, these rules have the effect of making ball-to-ball performance very similar so that market advantage you have so carefully cultivated will be greatly diminished. I cannot fathom this approach without foreseeing it as the basis of lawsuits for years to come. You could make the same argument if there were to be a similar approach on the club side.

The same would apply to players. I hire a trainer, spend hours working out, eating carefully, all with the same objective: to gain an advantage by being able to drive the ball well past my players. Now you want to change the ground rules and eliminate my advantage—let me introduce you to my attorney. 

So, what’s the next step? 8,500-9,000 yard tour courses—that is if they have room—strategically placed pot bunkers, essentially a one-stroke penalty, tricking up landing areas making luck too significant.

Or a subtle but very effective procedure. Back in my very early days, golf balls were balata, and I remember two things. If you looked at them funny, they responded with a smile, the kind that made them unputtable. Subsequent designs went from rocks to today’s ball—delightfully stable but still completely playable. Huge drives on Tour today are fades that straighten out hitting fairways with forward roll.

Never happened in the old days. Fades were soft, landed, and didn’t go very far. Slices were fades out of control, and while undesirable, they had a chance of being found and played. Hooks were anathema, the shot makers hit draws and got the advantage of extra roll. When draws became hooks more often than not they did not finish in a desirable area. “You can talk to fades and draws; hooks don’t listen.”

This was all relative to the high spin rate produced by the balata ball. And therein lies the path to my solution. I’m not advocating a return to balata. I’m saying today’s ball making expertise can produce a ball that loses nothing in distance but adds spin, which is a way of saying it emphasizes shotmaking. This may be as direct as changing the dimple pattern.

This change would strike directly to the heart of the long hitter who naturally produces the most spin. He (or she) could not simply depend on clubhead speed—it would have to be balanced by shotmaking skill. We aren’t changing the course, we aren’t producing a short-hitting ball, we are emphasizing shotmaking. No distance loss for amateurs, just more understanding that it’s about controlling your ball.

We retain the good things about the game without a lawsuit infested upheaval.  

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Barney Adams is the founder of Adams Golf and the inventor of the iconic "Tight Lies" fairway wood. He served as Chairman of the Board for Adams until 2012, when the company was purchased by TaylorMade-Adidas. Adams is one of golf's most distinguished entrepreneurs, receiving honors such as Manufacturing Entrepreneur of the Year by Ernst & Young in 1999 and the 2010 Ernie Sabayrac Award for lifetime contribution to the golf industry by the PGA of America. His journey in the golf industry started as as a club fitter, however, and has the epoxy filled shirts as a testimony to his days as an assembler. Have an equipment question? Adams holds seven patents on club design and has conducted research on every club in the bag. He welcomes your equipment questions through email at [email protected] Adams is now retired from the golf equipment industry, but his passion for the game endures through his writing. He is the author of "The WOW Factor," a book published in 2008 that offers an insider's view of the golf industry and business advice to entrepreneurs, and he continues to contribute articles to outlets like GolfWRX that offer his solutions to grow the game of golf.

40 Comments

40 Comments

  1. Brysoon McFaldough

    Dec 17, 2020 at 7:18 pm

    I have the best and simplest solution: determine the winner of every tournament based on the player with the lowest number of strokes. That way, driving the ball far isn’t the only metric, it’s an advantage only balanced by irons, wedges, short game and putting. And a course can’t be “obsolete”, because whether the ball is driven 250 or 350, whether the approach is 5 iron or SW, everyone plays the same course and can use the same equipment, the difference being their ability and effort.

    Oh, right, that’s what it already is.

    • Maximillian

      Dec 17, 2020 at 7:23 pm

      Brysoon,

      you’re a doofus. Any player who can drive it past 300 should be penalized. Who cares is that’s natural ability or hard work? Shorter hitters have a disadvantage and course designers’ egos are being damaged beyond repair. Who will protect the egos of the private club members whose courses are no longer “too tough for the pros”?

      Any player who drives it past 300 should get a 2 stroke penalty (and a $10,000 fine paid to the course architect). Any player who can’t hit it 300 should get a free drop at the 150 marker.

      Also, grow the rough to 2′ and make any grooves on wedges illegal.

      Also, ban all players over 6’2″ and body fat less than 25%.

  2. Keith

    Dec 17, 2020 at 2:40 pm

    What about having a specially made golf ball for major tournament only similar to tennis.

  3. Keith

    Dec 17, 2020 at 2:38 pm

    You say “Golf is one of the few games where amateurs can play the same equipment”. I beg to differ here because pros clubs particularly drivers are made exactly to the pros specifications. These drivers yo don’t find in the pro shop or golf store.

    • Maximillian

      Dec 19, 2020 at 1:54 am

      Amateurs CAN play the same equipment; there are plenty of clubfitters who can build you a club to tour specs. You can have a putter made to your exact specs from scratch.

      Being too cheap to do it doesn’t mean it can’t be done.

  4. George

    Dec 17, 2020 at 1:42 pm

    The PGA is trying to ruin golf. People want to see the low scores and want to use the same equipment to see how they compare. Who cares if they shoot 40 under? Seriously? Old dudes gonna ruin the game. Rhinos.

  5. Ken Moum

    Dec 17, 2020 at 10:59 am

    Barney, as the USGA proved in 1930 when they increased the size of the ball to its current 1.68″ and dropped the weight to 1.55 oz.

    The resulting product was called the “balloon ball” and the weight was quickly put back at 1.62 oz. But those were wound balata balls.

    With today’s balls a lighter standard would do everything you’re asking for. As clubhead speeds went up, the ball would curve more.

    But the REAL benefit is that it would make it easier for Jr. golfers, women and seniors to get the ball airborne and keep it airborne. It might even increase their distance.

  6. greg

    Dec 16, 2020 at 10:53 pm

    Kyle

    You nailed it. This is only an issue in tournament golf. All others need not apply.
    For select tournaments, no drivers allowed, a two wood or other fairway wood as a tee shot option.
    Please leave the ball alone.

  7. matt

    Dec 16, 2020 at 1:14 pm

    Is Barney doing ok? Just wondering if someone in his inner circle needs to have an intervention. Did he just argue (and I’m honestly asking, this is incomprehensible drivel) that we cannot change the ball, but we need to change the ball.

    • Bsrney Adams

      Dec 16, 2020 at 2:32 pm

      I now hold the record for most interventions that haven’t worked My regular golf buds dropped me. Playing as a single, early evening tee time.

  8. don

    Dec 16, 2020 at 11:17 am

    oldandgrey I would leave everything alone. when Bryson starts to win every week then maybe do something. Been playing on and off since 1961. The problem is with the average golfer trying to be something that will never happen. everything is distance. Now that my drives are mostly all under 200 yds I started to use forward tees. now golf is fun again. every oldtimer I know inflates his game must be a mental defect with the truth. every time I play younger or older I’m almost eighty, in the club they all drive it 230 to 250 or so but on the course they hit it under 200 or off to the right or off to the left. One of the biggest problems is men trying to be what will never happen. Just go out use the forward tees and have fun..

  9. Kyle EricSon

    Dec 16, 2020 at 2:25 am

    So my solution is slightly different … limit the number of clubs to only 12. I don’t think most pro’s would want to eliminate any of their short irons or wedges, so maybe they’d eliminate a couple of the longer clubs (driver, utility iron, 2 iron, etc.) and then tee off with 2 or 3 woods. Of course these guys still bomb 3 woods but it would reign in the distances somewhat. Just my two cents …

  10. happyday_j

    Dec 15, 2020 at 7:55 pm

    If the only move is by increasing spin on the golf ball, that will only make the game easier.

    Guys will just play a lower spinning driver head to get the same launch characteristics that they have now. So distance of the tee being reduced by spin get negligible.

    However now your increasing spin on all other shot, which therefore means more control, sort of like when then tried to reduce spin by changing the grooves…

    • 2over

      Dec 15, 2020 at 10:53 pm

      Brilliant. Having grown up playing balata balls I’ve long maintained this is the way. in the 80’s, early 90’s a really good player could take the spin off the long clubs and hit draws for distance. Guys who merely had clubhead speed saw a lot of up shooting spinners that went nowhere especially into the wind.

      You could make a ball that would still go far for the player who can hit up on the driver with a square face and minimize spin…

    • Johnny5

      Feb 26, 2021 at 1:34 pm

      Wrong. Having a driver that spins less means you are playing either lower lofts or a driver with forward CG. Either of those options decrease backspin, but INCREASE sidespin. Add in a ball with more spin to that and it will be very difficult to hit the ball straight. Old clubs could work around this with the higher gear effect but today’s clubs have much less gear effect to work with.

  11. Tim

    Dec 15, 2020 at 6:30 pm

    Easiest way to control distance is to limit the tee height when teeing up the ball. This is equivalent to MLB lowering the mound height to get more action from the hitters. I’ve seen some videos address tee height and there can be 15 yd difference between teeing the ball low vs high. It’s a cheap answer that doesn’t cause mass rollbacks of the club or ball.

  12. Lg

    Dec 15, 2020 at 5:29 pm

    Just ignore the ball. Go back to the rule we had in the early 2000’s where am’s were playing Hi-Cor drivers and pro’s weren’t. In other words reduce the CT for the pro’s drivers, 3 woods and driving irons. They’ll still look cosmetically the same as those played by recreational golfers, but just with thicker clubfaces. There’s 20 yards straight away. Then go to a 44″ shaft limit, again it won’t affect sales because a company can still say that this pro plays this or that etc etc.
    Then for gods sake can we slow the fairways down, just do what the do at Augusta, slightly thicker fairways grown back towards the tee…and no this won’t favour the player who carries it further because all the evidence suggest that the like of Rory, Bryson get more roll after the ball has landed. Put these together and you have 20-30 yards and the game is relevant again!

  13. ben

    Dec 15, 2020 at 4:20 pm

    I think you miss the point when adressing the problem this way. If you play shorter, the game becomes even harder for the short hitters… The only way to made it fair is either to limit swing speed with radars (and give a penalty each time the radar bips) or put more obstacles and penalty areas betwin 320 and 370 yards…

  14. Peter Steward

    Dec 15, 2020 at 3:59 pm

    Never understood why that problem is so difficult to solve. Just don’t cut the fairway in the driver landing zone from 300 – 330 yards two weeks in advance of a PGA tournament. Every player will avoid hitting driver on those wholes. Problem solved. Cut the grass monday morning after the tournament and members and guests can play on as usual. Shorter balls are not the way to go. Ever hit balls on a range that had these 20% or 30% length reduced balls because the range is too short in size? Been on a range in Dublin that had 50% reduced length balls. Total crap, everybody hates that. For a reason, it is just no fun.

  15. USGA would-be

    Dec 15, 2020 at 3:54 pm

    This is stupid. Just mandate a condition of competition that you must play with a 60-compression ball. This goes away immediately.

    • matt

      Dec 16, 2020 at 1:19 pm

      yup… long hitter would still be long – although the gap would narrow… we could play faster, find stray shots quicker, reduce course size, reduce maintenance costs. If you’re the longest hitter in your group you’ll retain your status – people would adjust in about 2 weeks. Don’t get why people shudder at the idea. Really short hitters wouldn’t even lose distance, a lower compression ball is what they need anyhow.

  16. Kevin Ricciardelli

    Dec 15, 2020 at 12:45 pm

    Another way to reduce distance among the fastest swingers is to limit the size of the clubheads. I don’t think that Bryson would want to swing that hard with a 275 or 300 cc driver head. Far less MOI means less control.

  17. Jon

    Dec 15, 2020 at 12:32 pm

    Make the cup smaller for the pros.

  18. gordy3279

    Dec 15, 2020 at 12:18 pm

    here’s a pretty simple fix. Keep the ball the same but require pros to play smaller heads and steel shafts in all their clubs. Like baseball between college and the pros. College baseball players play aluminum bats and pros play wooded. The ball is the same. I guarantee if the pros played smaller heads with steel shafts swing speeds would go down. No way you get 130+ swing speed with a 275cc head and a steel shaft.

  19. Statmagic

    Dec 15, 2020 at 12:01 pm

    Which golf ball manufacturer is going to the be the first to say “our ball doesn’t go as far”?

    What exactly is the total available market for those who purchase that ball? I’m going to venture a guess and say there is no market for that ball.

  20. Ben

    Dec 15, 2020 at 11:57 am

    Making the ball balata again won’t do much. About 15 years ago, my friend found some Tour Balata 90s in his dad’s garage so we took them out. This was peak Pro V1 years, which hasn’t changed if you’ve seen videos online. The ball did spin more but the distance wasn’t all that different. With the driver maybe 10 yards, irons were about 5. But the short game was so much easier because you can spin the heck out of it. I don’t see how rolling back the ball or putting limits on the dimples will do anything. A dimpleless golf ball flies really straight. So now you’re giving the big hitters even more advantage by limiting the dimple pattern. Just let golf be golf. People are playing like crazy, even in a pandemic and people are watching it on tv too. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

  21. Statmagic

    Dec 15, 2020 at 11:54 am

    Barney poking that snake with a stick.

    I guess everyone is just bored these days and need to rehash the same old stuff.

  22. Scott Shields

    Dec 15, 2020 at 11:47 am

    The solution is easy:

    Grow out the rough ….

    Soften fairways …

    Harden greens ….

    Make bunkers actually hard to hit from by either not racking them or making them waste bunkers….

    You won’t need to change the length of any course when missing fairways actually becomes punitive.

    As far as the ball goes, what’s done is done, just restrict further increases to what’s already out there, you certainly can’t take away from what exists.

  23. TonyK

    Dec 15, 2020 at 11:35 am

    Dimple (aero) regulation is the easiest.

    It is possible to not affect pretty much any club but the driver only with higher swing speed 110+.

  24. WRXFan

    Dec 15, 2020 at 11:32 am

    Please stop giving this guy credibility. he had one good golf invention 25 years ago, and that was it.

    • gwelfgulfer

      Dec 15, 2020 at 3:28 pm

      This… The hypocrisy is awesome when a former owner of an equipment company that tried to push boundaries and create equipment that would make the ball go further, crying about the ball going further… Barney failed and was taken over/bought out, yet here wrx still gives him a voice…

  25. Karl Furno

    Dec 15, 2020 at 11:17 am

    Great article! The charm of the game is that we play the same rules that the pros play. Period. Duh, we know pros have tour heads and custom shafts but that’s not what separates them from us. DJ and Rory don’t hit it 50yds pst us because of a tour model, it’s because of talent, mechanics, and conditioning.

  26. Paulo

    Dec 15, 2020 at 10:34 am

    There is no distance problem in golf. People pushing limits is what sport is all about.

  27. Henny Bogan

    Dec 15, 2020 at 10:32 am

    1. The average player does not play the same equipment that tour players do and does not play on the same courses under the same conditions as tour players do. If they did, the number of people who would leave the game would be astronomical, it would simply be too hard for too many. The game self-bifurcated years ago, even if we don’t want to admit it. There is not harm or shame in publicly acknowledging that.

    2. Your argument that changing the rules put on golf ball manufactures would cost them too much money and lead to lawsuits, but then you proposed a ball that spins more? How would you enforce a higher spinning ball unless you changed the rules put on golf ball manufactures? The golf ball is the most logical place to impact the game because golf balls are a disposable commodity. Players go through them at high rates and changing the golf ball formula would not impact the players spending habit. They’re going to buy new balls in the near future anyway. This is the cheapest avenue to invoke change and will impact the OEM the least.

    3. There is nothing stopping golf ball manufactures from making golf balls that do not meet the specs of the USGA or R&A. They choose to build to those specs because that is what golfers want. This is exactly what the courts would say to them if they try to sue the USGA. Illegal balls and clubs are sold today, nothing is there to stop them from being sold and used on a golf course.

  28. Matt

    Dec 15, 2020 at 10:03 am

    If you add spin to the ball, especially off the driver, you are naturally going to reduce distance given how optimized drivers and driver swings are today. This is impossible

  29. John Ward

    Dec 15, 2020 at 10:02 am

    Haha so your reasons are history and economics……….you sir, are the problem.
    Money and tradition over the betterment of the game and its participants. This sounds awfully familiar! Where’s your blonde wig?

    Also I noticed you are “100 percent against” a shorter ball, yet your grand solution was to create a spinnier ball aka a shorter ball. What do you think spin does?

    You want to preserve the “tens if not hundreds of millions” of R&D dollars put forth by ball companies, yet you want to change the construction of the ball? Isn’t that a paradox?

    You’re yelling at the clouds man. Your kids are sitting there saying “Ok dad, sounds good dad” and waiting for you to pick up the bill

  30. A. Commoner

    Dec 15, 2020 at 9:30 am

    Right on, Barney! I truly miss the way golf used to be.

  31. Travis

    Dec 15, 2020 at 9:02 am

    Does it matter at this point? Either do it, or don’t do it, but stop just talking about it. This stupid discussion has been going on for years with zero resolution one way or another. Take action and be done with it.

    • A. Commoner

      Dec 15, 2020 at 9:43 am

      Whom are you addressing?

    • Statmagic

      Dec 15, 2020 at 11:57 am

      Exactly right. Does years of discussing the same thing actually do anything?

      Money is the only thing that would prompt change. What golf ball manufacturer is going to the be the first to say “our ball doesn’t go as far”?

      Answer: none of them will.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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