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Tour Rundown: Rai surprises (Garcia, too) | Finally, a win for Mel Reid
The major golf news this week was more agronomic in nature, as the Instagram world marveled at how the Augusta National could go from beautiful brown to…green, in a matter of days. Seems it has to do with rye over-seeding and witchcraft; we’ll get back to you on the specifics. Meanwhile, back at the 18th green, four golfers walked away with massive smiles, thanks to tournament victories. We’ve run them down the best that we can, and are happy to share them with you in this week’s version of Tour Runbrown, err, Rundown.
Scottish Open to Rai in surprise victory
If someone, say, me, had suggested that three English golfers would take the top three spots at this week’s Scottish Open, you’d have been surprised that one of them wasn’t Lee Westwood. If offered the names Tommy Fleetwood, Robert Rock, and Aaron Rai, you’d probably have done nothing to the order. Fairway Jesus is one of the top 20 players in the world, and Rock has multiple wins on the European Tour. Before this week, Rai was known as the two-glove guy, a fellow who had won a few times in Asia.
In regulation play, Rock decided to chip from just off the 18th green, rather than putt. He failed to get up and down, dropped from -11 to -10, and came third. Tied at -11 were, you guessed it, the mashie messiah and Rai. Away they sailed, to the 18th tee of the Renaissance Club, to settle matters. Fleetwood drove into the fairway, while Rai found trouble left. He recovered to leave a challenging pitch, which he tossed to four feet. After converting his par putt, Rai watched in disbelief as the putting paragon flinched from three feet. Just like that, Aaron Rai was no longer two-glove guy.
The tour moves to the toney Wentworth Club this week for the PGA Championship.
Sanderson Farms rates just behind Masters for Garcia
Perhaps not, but let’s be realistic: even though Sergio Garcia Fernandez had won three times since his major breakthrough in 2017, he had not won on US soil, where victories matter more. And, even though his major opposition came from guys named Malnatti, Poston, and Norlander, this win had to mean much to his psyche, as the 2020 version of the little gathering at Augusta looms.
Garcia hit a titanic metal approach to the par-five 14th hole. The ball hit either on the grassy upslope of a greenside bunker, or just past it, and bounced forward to the green, settling inside ten feet. No word on whether he putted with eyes open or closed (the second big story of the week, after the browning of Berckmans) but el adulto made the putt and moved into a tie for the lead. On the 18th hole, with the sun setting quickly, Garcia did the thing that made him famous: he hit an iron approach to within two feet. Garcia started walking after it, as though he knew. The ball landed one foot shy of the hole, and rolled out three feet. With the tap-in, the pride of Borriol had his 11th tour title in 20 seasons.
The PGA tour moves along to Las Vegas for the next two weeks. The Shriners Open will be played first, at TPC Summerlin. It will be followed by the relocated CJ Cup the next week, to be played at fabled Shadow Creek.
Shoprite Classic, finally, is a win for Mel Reid
Mel Reid knew how to win. She had won six times on the Ladies European Tour, albeit not in the past 3.5 years. She also knew how to not win, and had specialized in that in the USA. Reid had so many ways to not win a tournament, and each loss ate away at her confidence. She entered the final round of the annual New Jersey tilt within striking distance once more. In her way were Jennifer Kupcho. winner of the inaugural Augusta Women’s Amateur two years back; Jennifer Song, Nasa Hataoka, and world number two Nelly Korda. It would be no walk in the park.
After opening with a pair of birdies, Reid faltered with bogies at six and seven. Steadying herself, she recorded two more birdies at eight and nine, to finish the outward half in minus-two, still in the mix. Reid had two more birdies at 11 and 12, but stumbled again with bogey at 17. In that mysterious way that sometimes defines golf tournaments, no one had separated from the field, and Reid was tied for the lead as she stepped to the final tee. Her drive found a bit of rough, but Reid lashed at it with all the fury built up from those losses over the years. The ball found the edge of the green, and after two putts, Reid was finally an LPGA champion.
The LPGA Tour moves across state lines to Philadelphia, for the Womens PGA Championship at Aronimink.
Savannah Golf Championship is Harmeling’s first Korn Ferry title
The closing hole was double kind to Evan Harmeling on Sunday, and twice cruel to Kevin Dougherty. Harmeling made birdie there twice, while Dougherty was able to manage pars, despite having two cracks at the par-five finisher. If you’re an astute student of the game, you know that I’m hinting at a playoff, but let’s hold off on the result for a moment. Harmeling entered the final round with a one-shot advantage over Dougherty, but neither did much to separate from the other, or the field. George Cunningham and Austen Truslow made runs on day four, each turning in a seven-under 65. Those numbers were good enough to reach -19, and earn them a tie for third spot with three other competitors.
Harmeling’s round could be described as a three-part drama. He managed three birdies over his first six holes, then followed that with three bogies over the next six. Finally, he concluded with three more birdies over the closing third of the round, to reach 21 deep. His playing partner, Dougherty, fared much better over the first sixteen holes. After a bogey at the fourth, Dougherty reeled off six birdies over the subsequent 11 holes, to seize a two shot lead with two to play. In an eye’s blink, it slipped away. A bogey at the 17th, followed by the aforementioned, first birdie at 18 by Harmeling, erased the two-shot advantage, and away to the playoff they went. Harmeling ended matters quickly, but not without a little providence. His second to the par five bounded over the green, but fell into a sprinkler head just off the back edge. Instead of facing a testy pitch from down below, a flattish chip awaited. Two shots later, another birdie was in hand, along with a first-place check and trophy.
The Korn Ferry Tour concludes its 2020 campaign this week, at the Orange County national championship, in Orlando, Florida.
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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine
As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson.
Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.
TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.
The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.
There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris.
Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson
- 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
- 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
- 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
- 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
- 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
- 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)
Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.
Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.
Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tom Hoge (+1.12)
- Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
- Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
- Ryan Moore (+0.98)
- Ben Martin (0.80)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.
Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds
- Peter Kuest (+0.93)
- Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
- Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
- Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
- Kevin Tway (+0.74)
Birdie or Better %
There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.
Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Wesley Bryan (31%)
- Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
- Peter Kuest (25.9%)
- Matti Schmid (25.7%
- Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.
Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
- Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
- Callum Tarren (+0.86)
- Harry Hall (+0.81)
- Nick Hardy (+0.69)
Course History
This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.
Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:
- Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
- K.H. Lee (+2.59)
- Seamus Power (+1.84)
- Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
- Adam Scott (+1.72)
CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).
- Alex Noren
- Adam Scott
- Keith Mitchell
- Si Woo Kim
- Stephen Jaeger
- Jordan Spieth
- Jhonnatan Vegas
- Nate Lashley
- Brice Garnett
- Tom Hoge
2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks
Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)
Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.
An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.
Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.
An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.
Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)
Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.
Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.
Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)
After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.
Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.
In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.
Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.
Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)
Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.
At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.
2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.
Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)
Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.
This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.
Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.
C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)
Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.
Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.
Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.
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Morning 9: McIlroy, Lowry win Zurich | Green repeats on LPGA | Steele victorious down under
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Morning 9: 58 on the Korn Ferry Tour | Rory on possible return to policy board
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Pingback: Tour Rundown: Rai surprises (Garcia, too) – LPGA Gameday
Lrn2journalism
Oct 5, 2020 at 9:35 pm
Reid wasn’t tied for the lead on the 72nd tee. She led her two playing partners by two strokes.