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Morning 9: 78% of courses open | Koepka: November Masters wining score will be around E | Tiger’s next start?

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By Ben Alberstadt
Email me at [email protected] and find me at @benalberstadt on Instagram and golfwrxEIC on Twitter.
May 6, 2020
Good Wednesday mornings, golf fans.

 

1. Latest NGF report
Our Gianni Magliocco writes…“The National Golf Foundation’s latest research for the week ending May 3 shows a significant increase of open golf courses nationwide with 78% of courses now open for play.”
  • “That’s an increase of 20% on last week’s figures, and the NGF is estimating that in just two weeks, 90% of courses will be open throughout the U.S.”
  • “With courses in Washington and New Hampshire re-opening within the next seven days, just three states have an order in place temporarily closing their tracks – Massachusetts, Vermont and Maryland.”
  • “The most significant surge in open courses came in the mid-Atlantic, with New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania seeing a combined 221% jump in open courses.”

Full piece.

2. Golf fares well (relatively)  in WAPO reopening poll
Geoff Shackelford filed a blog post on some interesting data from a Washington Post survey…”While a majority still opposed golf courses reopening (59%), the numbers that likely speak to an overall misunderstanding of how the sport works safely or just traditional elitist-sport apathy. But first place is better than most.”
  • “…Gun stores are next, with 70 percent saying they should not be reopened, followed by barbershops and hair salons (69 percent opposed) and retail shops such as clothing stores (66 percent opposed) and golf courses (59 percent opposed).”
3. Defiance in Massachusetts
Todd Kelly at Golfweek…”A Massachusetts golf course owner is preparing to re-open two courses this week in defiance of the statewide ban on the activity, according to a report by Fox News.”
  • “Cara Cullen owns the Wachusett Country Club in West Boylston and the Kettle Brook Golf Club in Paxton. Both courses closed in March because they’re considered “nonessential businesses.”
  • “…Basically for five weeks, I’ve sat by watching my family business get destroyed while thousands of golfers have crossed the borders to go to Connecticut and New York, which is causing huge safety concerns. … There’s like 47 states that have opened golf courses. By not opening golf courses, [Baker’s] actually creating a more hazardous condition,” Cullen told Fox News.

Full piece.

4. Reshaping golf? 
Credit to Geoff Shackelford for highlighting this excerpt from Global Golf Post’s Ron Green’s report on the future of top-tier men’s professional golf…
  • “Multiple leaders within the game believe some form of consolidation between the PGA Tour and the European Tour is coming. The European Tour needs it. The PGA Tour can benefit from it.”
  • “It’s important for the PGA Tour, according to multiple sources, that the European Tour emerges intact from its current uncertainty. Different, but still here. At professional golf tours around the world, a forced reimagining is underway.”
  • “Of immediate importance to the PGA Tour is getting through what will be at least a three-month suspension of tournament competition. Each week the tour sits idle, it costs the organization millions of dollars.”
5. #LikeArnie
PGATour.com staff report…“The Arnold & Winnie Palmer Foundation today announced a campaign of charitable efforts to support people impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Called “#LikeArnie,” the campaign operates from the premise that “hungry kids can’t learn” and aims to support youth and educators across the country, including those in a number of PGA TOUR event communities. #LikeArnie builds on the Palmer Foundation’s immediate response to the pandemic, in which masks and face shields were provided to more than 20,000 workers at Orlando Health, of which the Arnold Palmer Hospital for Children and the Winnie Palmer Hospital for Women & Babies are part.”
“Through the Feeding America® member food banks, #LikeArnie will support the provision of nutritious food to children in Orlando, Fla. (the Foundation’s home city and site of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard), in Arnold Palmer’s hometown of Latrobe, Pa., and in nearby Pittsburgh. In addition, Feeding America food banks, Food Banks Canada, and FareShare in the U.K. have received gifts in support of 10 communities that were impacted by the cancelation of PGA TOUR events. Focusing on children’s educational challenges, the Palmer Foundation is providing a major gift for the new DonorsChoose Keep Kids Learning initiative, which will support students and teachers across the nation. Also, in partnership with other organizations, the Foundation will address educational needs for children in Orlando.”
6. Tom Watson: How Byron Nelson enriched my life
While we’re missing the Byron Nelson this year, at least we have some excellent tournament-related content from PGATour.com, including this reflection from Tom Watson…
  • “Even before meeting him, I had considered him one of the greats, mainly because of my father’s love of golf history. He always talked about the Great Triumvirate – Nelson, Snead and Hogan. My dad’s favorite was Snead and his golf swing. But he always told me, “You know, that Nelson, he had a dip in his swing but man, could he really play.”
  • “The next time I saw Byron, though, was under less-than-ideal circumstances. It was a few months later after the final round of the ’74 U.S. Open at Winged Foot. The day before, I shot 69 to take the lead and had a chance to win my first major. But that Sunday, I shot 79 in the final round to give it away. Afterwards, I was up on the second floor of the clubhouse, having a beer with my friend John Mahaffey. In walks Byron – Lord Byron — and the place goes silent. He stood at the swinging doors there and asked me a question. “Tom, could I speak with you for just 5 minutes?”
  • “I went out to meet him for that private conversation. He started out, “I really enjoy watching you play. You conduct yourself well. You played great yesterday. And today, your swing was just a little bit off. I think you got a little fast, which is typical to do when you have a chance to win the U.S. Open. I know of what I speak.”
7. Where will Tiger play next? 
ESPN’s Bob Harig contemplated Woods’ full schedule, including if he’ll play a tournament before the Memorial… Here are his thoughts on the first two events on the calendar…
  • “June 11-14: Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial...Woods’ lone appearance in the event came in 1997, when he finished fourth a week after winning his first start since capturing the Masters by claiming the Byron Nelson Championship. Colonial apparently wasn’t much to his liking at the time, but it would seem to be now. And if Woods is really itching to play, the first event back makes a lot of sense.”
  • “June 18-21: RBC Heritage….Another event Woods has played just once — a tie for 18th in 1999 — at a course that didn’t seem to suit him but now very well might. Harbour Town Golf Links is the kind of place he should love, especially the way he is so adept at working the ball on a layout that demands it. Plus, he can summon his yacht, Privacy, to the South Carolina shore. This one makes plenty of sense too, but Tiger isn’t going to play both of the first two. You’d think he would play one of them, however. This is the week previously scheduled for the U.S. Open, which has been moved to September.”
8. Julieta Granada: Unfortunate psychic? 
Golfweek’s Beth Ann Nichols…“Two weeks ago, Julieta Granada had a dream that someone stole her 2010 Range Rover with her golf clubs inside. She woke up sweating.”
  • “Granada, 33, said the dream was so real she told everyone about it…”Well that’s crazy,” her boyfriend told her, “because a car recently got stolen like three houses down.”
  • “On Sunday, Granada’s nightmare became a reality. She’d left her keys in her boyfriend’s locked car in front of his Lake Nona home in Laureate Park. When she went outside to retrieve her keys, they were gone. Along with her Range Rover, which was parked about 200 yards away.”
9. Masters where even par wins? 
Golf Channel’s Will Gray…“I don’t think any of us know what to expect,” Koepka said Tuesday on the Dan Patrick Show.”
  • “Koepka raised a litany of questions, ranging from whether the course will be overseeded to the potential length of any rough. But after posting a total of 12 under a year ago, he expects much tougher scoring this fall.”
  • “Among the factors raising the difficulty could be the wind. According to Koepka, players can expect the prevailing winds to come from a different direction in the fall, which could make Nos. 13 and 15 more difficult to reach in two.”
  • “It’s going to be so cold. Balls aren’t going to be flying as far,” Koepka said. “Every par-5 basically plays into the wind from what I’ve been told. It’s going to change the golf course. I think you’ll see scores around even par instead of that 12, 15 under that you’ve been accustomed to. And I think it could really affect the back nine.”
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Morning 9: Tiger confirms playing schedule | Player: This caused Tiger’s downfall

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By Ben Alberstadt with Gianni Magliocco.

For comments: [email protected]

Good Thursday morning, golf fans, as day one of the CJ Cup Byron Nelson gets underway.

1. Woods confirms he plans to play 1x monthly, remaining 3 majors

ESPN report…”Woods, appearing on the “Today” show Wednesday morning, said he is still following the calendar he mapped out before the season began. But physical limitations continue to give the 15-time major winner pause.”

  • “He completed the Masters last month but requires a “cold plunge every day, religiously” to get his body going and was “extremely sore” when he left Augusta National. Woods shot a 16-over 304 at the Masters and finished last among the 60 golfers who made the 36-hole cut.”
  • “I have basically the next three months — three majors — and hopefully that works out,” said Woods, who last won a major in 2019.
  • “Up next is the PGA Championship at Valhalla in two weeks. The U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 begins June 13, and the Open Championship at Royal Troon in Scotland begins July 18. Woods has not played all four majors in a year since 2019.”
Full piece.

2. Tiger on origin of red-and-black Sunday outfit

Ben Morse for CNN…”…speaking on Tuesday’s edition of ‘The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon,’ the 48-year-old said his mother Kultida was key to him wearing the now-iconic red and black combination.”

  • “My mom thought, being a Capricorn, that [red] was my power color, or some BS thing like that, so I end up wearing red and end up winning some golf tournaments,” the 15-time major winner told Fallon. “And then to spite her, I wore blue, and I did not win those tournaments. So Mom is always right.”
  • “Woods’ mother was clearly was onto something as her son would go onto win a record-equaling 82 PGA Tour tournaments.”
Full piece.

3. Gary Player’s take on Tiger’s downfall

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While speaking with KW Golf, golf legend Gary Player said that he believes swing coaches ruined the career of Tiger Woods.”

  • “The US Open at Pebble Beach, he won by 15 shots. You know what that’s like? It’s like running the 100 meters in seven seconds. The next week, he’s having a lesson from a man who, I don’t think, if he played in the Masters, could break 80.”
  • “And then he goes to another guy who couldn’t probably break 85 in the Masters with the pressure, or the British Open or the PGA on the final day. And he’s having lessons from them.”
  • “Why did Tiger do that? He was so good, but I understand he wanted to get better,” Player went on. “If he had just gone along and never changed, he would have won at least 22.. He would’ve gone down as the greatest athlete the world has ever seen.”
  • In 2008, Woods had won 14 majors and was 33 years old. It would take him eleven years to win his 15th at the 2019 Masters.
Full piece.

4. Open winner: I used to hate links golf

Peter Scrivener for the BBC…”However, he did recall his chastening links golf baptism at neighbouring Prestwick, which hosted the inaugural Open in 1860.”

  • “The first time I played links golf I hated it – it ate me to pieces,” said the 37-year-old, who lost all four of his matches as Europe thrashed the United States in the 2006 Palmer Cup.
  • “I kept trying to hit lob wedges around the greens and the weather was bad. I got whipped, lost all of my matches.”
Full piece.

5. Why Tiger’s daughter doesn’t like golf

Our Matt Vincenzi…”While Tiger Woods’ son, Charlie, has certainly inherited his father’s love for golf, his daughter, Sam, has not.”

  • “On Wednesday, Tiger made an appearance on The Today Show with Carson Daly and explained his daughter’s relationship with golf.”
  • “Golf has negative connotations for her. When she was growing up, golf took daddy away from her. I had to pack, I had to leave, and I was gone for weeks. So, there were negative connotations to it.
  • “We developed our own relationship and our own rapport outside of golf. We do things that doesn’t involve golf. Meanwhile, my son and I, everything we do is golf related.”
Full piece.

6. Spieth hits ‘reset button’

Mark Schlabach for ESPN…”PGA Tour star Jordan Spieth isn’t happy that he’s not playing as well as his longtime friend Scottie Scheffler, but he’s hoping to use the world No. 1 golfer’s success as inspiration.”

  • “Spieth, a three-time major championship winner, said he used last week as a reset after a so-so start to the 2024 season. He has three top-10 finishes in 10 starts but had a disqualification and three missed cuts, including at The Players and Masters, in his past seven.”
  • “He is hoping to turn things around, starting at The CJ Cup Bryon Nelson, which tees off Thursday at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.”
  • “I think I kind of wanted to hit the reset button this last week and I took more days off than I usually do,” Spieth told reporters Wednesday. “Got a little burned out trying to find stuff. I wanted to take some time off, clear my mind, and then get back to it.
  • “… Kind of looking at this as kind of a restart. I haven’t had the year I wanted to have after getting off to a pretty optimistic start in Hawaii. I feel really good about the work I put in since the weekend into the few days this week, so I believe that I’m really close to some great things.”
Full piece.

7. Photos from the CJ Cup Byron Nelson

  • Check out all of our galleries from this week’s event!
Full Piece.
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Tour Photo Galleries

Photos from the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

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GolfWRX is on site this week in McKinney, Texas, at the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson (FKA the AT&T Byron Nelson).

Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Jason Day ended a five-year winless streak. J-Day is in the field again, as are Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris.

We have our usual assortment of general galleries, WITBs, and pullout albums for your perusal. As always, we’ll continue to add links to additional albums as they make their way to us from the Lone Star State.

Check out links to all our photos below.

General Albums

WITB Albums

Pullout Albums

See what GolfWRXers are saying in the forums.

 

 

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Vincenzi’s 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson betting preview: International talent to shine

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As anticipation mounts for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla in a few weeks, the PGA Tour makes a pit stop in McKinney, Texas to play The CJ CUP Byron Nelson. 

Last year was the third time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the three editions at TPC Craig Ranch.

The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.

There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship in a few weeks and a “signature event” at Quail Hollow next week. Notable players in the field include Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Min Woo Lee, Alex Noren, Adam Scott and Will Zalatoris. 

Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson

  • 2023: Jason Day (-23 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
  • 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
  • 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
  • 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
  • 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)

Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.

Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, Jason Day gained 6.4 strokes on approach, which was fourth in the field. In 2022, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.

Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.12)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.02)
  3. Henrik Norlander (+0.99)
  4. Ryan Moore (+0.98)
  5. Ben Martin (0.80)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.

Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Peter Kuest (+0.93)
  2. Kevin Daugherty (+0.91)
  3. Alejandro Tosti (+0.83)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+0.82)
  5. Kevin Tway (+0.74)

Birdie or Better %

There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.

Birdie or Better % Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Wesley Bryan (31%)
  2. Kelly Kraft (26.2%)
  3. Peter Kuest (25.9%)
  4. Matti Schmid (25.7%
  5. Jimmy Stanger (25.2%)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer Bentgrass to other surfaces.

Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Maverick McNealy (+0.92)
  2. Aaron Baddeley (+0.87)
  3. Callum Tarren (+0.86)
  4. Harry Hall (+0.81)
  5. Nick Hardy (+0.69)

Course History

This statistic will tell us which players have performed the best at TPC Craig Ranch over the past three seasons.

Course History Over Past 12 Rounds:

  1. Jordan Spieth (+2.69)
  2. K.H. Lee (+2.59)
  3. Seamus Power (+1.84)
  4. Ryan Palmer (+1.76)
  5. Adam Scott (+1.72)

CJ CUP Byron Nelson Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (24%), Birdie or Better % (18%), Course History (17%) and SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).

  1. Alex Noren
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Keith Mitchell
  4. Si Woo Kim
  5. Stephen Jaeger
  6. Jordan Spieth
  7. Jhonnatan Vegas
  8. Nate Lashley
  9. Brice Garnett
  10. Tom Hoge

2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson Picks

Byeong Hun An +3000 (DraftKings)

Byeong Hun put together an excellent performance at The Masters, finishing T16, which ties his best ever finish at a major championship (also T16 at 2019 U.S. Open). The South Korean gained 9.16 strokes from tee to green, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the champion, Scottie Scheffler.

An’s next start at Harbour Town didn’t go as well (67th), but he still had a fantastic ball striking week. The 32-year-old bled strokes both around and on the greens, which was his eventual undoing. In his past three starts, An has gained significant strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach.

Benny had a strong start at last year’s Byron Nelson, finishing in a tie for 14th. With limited challenges on the course, he shouldn’t have to do much scrambling. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 17th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 17th in the field in birdie or better percentage. The putter is up and down per usual, but his ceiling putting weeks with his LAB Golf putter in 2024 are higher than they’ve been in past seasons.

An is starting to become my “white whale” of the PGA Tour, but I believe in his talent and TPC Craig Ranch is a course that should suit his excellent tee to green play.

Mackenzie Hughes +5500 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes is quietly putting together a very good season. He finished in a tie for 3rd at the Valspar Championship and followed that up with a T14 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

In his past 36 rounds in Texas, the Canadian ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total. Last year, he finished in a tie for 14th at this event and gained strokes putting and off the tee. Mackenzie played well that week despite being in extremely poor form. He missed two cuts in a row prior to the event, and four consecutive cuts immediately after. His irons were off that week, but in 2024, we’ve seen an improvement in Hughes’ approach game. He now comes to the event playing some steady golf. He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his past five events and is hitting the ball very well from tee to green.

Hughes has two victories on the PGA Tour, both coming in relatively low-scoring affairs (-17 in each). He will need to go a bit deeper to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson but has the type of putter that can keep pace in a birdie barrage.

Seamus Power +7000 (FanDuel)

After struggling over the past few seasons with injuries, Seamus Power seems as if he is rounding back into the form that made him a really consistent player on the PGA Tour.

Power finished T12 in his most recent start at the RBC Heritage, which is encouraging considering it was a “signature event” with a very strong field. For the week, the Irishman gained 4.4 strokes on approach and 2.8 strokes putting, which is the combination he’s used in the past to contend on Tour.

In his three trips to TPC Craig Ranch, Power is yet to finish outside of the top-20, with his best finish being a T9 in 2019. He ranks 4th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course. The 37-year-old thrives on easy tracks and has won in 2021 (Barbasol Championship) and 2022 (Butterfield Bermuda) on easier layouts with weaker fields.

Power has the game to go extremely low and I believe he can get back in the winner’s circle for the third time in four years.

Chan Kim +10000 (FanDuel)

Chan Kim has been striking the ball beautifully this season and is a proven winner with two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 as well as eight career Japan Tour wins.

At last week’s Zurich Classic, Kim and his partner Doug Ghim finished in a tie for 28th. Prior to that, the South Korean T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T6 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. His success this season in Texas as well as he propensity to play his best golf on the PGA Tour’s easier courses make him and ideal fit for TPC Craig Ranch.

2024 has given plenty of longshot winners on the PGA Tour, and with a birdie fest like this, I believe there’s a strong chance we get another this week in McKinney, Texas.

Alejandro Tosti +10000 (FanDuel)

Alejandro Tosti is one of the most polarizing players on the PGA Tour thus far in the 2024 season. His antics can rub many the wrong way, but he’s shown on a few occasions that he has what it takes to compete in Tour events.

This season, Tosti has been elite off the tee. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Argentine hits it long and straight, which works at any course on earth. He got a taste of contention a few starts ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, finishing in a tie for 2nd place.

Tosti had a fantastic year in 2023 on the Korn Ferry Tour, where going low is a prerequisite to success. If this turns to a shootout, which it likely will, the 27-year-old has the ability to set the pace. Tosti will look to become the second Argentine to win in Texas in the past two seasons after Emiliano Grillo emerged victorious at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge.

C.T. Pan +15000 (FanDuel)

Outside of a T3 at the Mexico Open, C.T. Pan doesn’t have strong results this season in terms of finishes. However, over his past two starts, Pan’s iron play has come alive. At The Players, he gained 6.6 strokes on approach. At the Valero Texas Open, he gained 3.7. At last week’s Zurich Classic, Pan and his partner Kevin Yu finished T28. For a player who can get extremely hot with his scoring clubs, I believe he’s playing better than the results have shown over the past month or so.

Last season, Pan finished 4th at TPC Craig Ranch and was spectacular across all the major stat categories. In his past 36 qualifying rounds, he ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Total in Texas.

Pan has won on the PGA Tour at the RBC Heritage and is always a player that I believe has what it takes to win on a Sunday if he finds himself in contention.

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