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The Wedge Guy: Some things that make me go “hmm…”

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As you might imagine, playing golf as long as I can remember–and then tacking onto that passion 40 years in the golf equipment industry–has given me a broad perspective on the evolution of golf clubs and the game we play. And those six decades of observation and experience have not yielded a shortage of things that make me scratch my head and just wonder…wonder why that is?

Of course, beginning golf in the 1950s and developing into a pretty good teenage golfer in the 1960s meant that I learned with persimmon woods and forged blade irons—that’s all there were back then. As I entered the golf industry in the late 1970s, I was blessed to do marketing work for Joe Powell, who was a total maestro when it came to crafting the finest persimmon woods. That was before the introduction of the TaylorMade metal woods, so everyone played persimmon. I learned a lot about golf club performance from Joe; for example, you wouldn’t know that he was frequency-sorting shafts before anyone was commercially offering “frequency matching.” Joe just saw it as a way to eliminate a variable in the golf club.

Over those 40 years in the golf equipment industry, I have observed the evolution of all our clubs from those earlier “states of the art.” No one then would have imagined the technology we now see in drivers, irons, putters, shafts…but all that technology leaves me scratching my head all too often; I would like to share just a few of those puzzling observations and get your take on them, OK?

What really makes today’s drivers so much longer?

It is impossible to isolate any single technology and how much it affects driving distance. Since those days of persimmon, we have had quantum leaps in shaft technology, heads have gotten nearly three times the size in volume, we have pushed perimeter weighting to the max, and we have faces of exotic metals that act like trampolines. While all of those things have contributed to the distance gains, as far as the driver is concerned, my take is that it mostly boils down to two primary things.

  1. Drivers are at least two–and up to three-plus ounces–lighter than they were back then; that’s a weight reduction of 15-25 percent, so of course, we can swing them faster…and clubhead speed makes the ball go further.
  2. We all swing harder than ever before because the penalty for an off-center hit has been reduced dramatically. In my opinion, all the other technologies only tweak the effect of these two advancements. What do you all think?

What is the deal with “matched sets” of irons?

From the advent of “matched sets” in the 1920s (a development pushed by Bobby Jones), irons have been designed so that the lowest-lofted 2-iron (now 3 or 4) through the highest loft club marked ‘P’ or ‘W’ all look alike. That’s always puzzled me because the impact dynamics of a 25-degree iron are radically different from those of a 45-degree iron.

Only recently have manufacturers begun to mildly modify the mass distribution through the set to give higher launch angles to the long irons and lower trajectories to the short irons, but when will they take this to the optimum and break the chains that bind–the restriction that all the irons in a set must look alike? [NOTE: I know that mixed sets have been offered and failed, so maybe it’s us golfers that won’t let them do that.]

About those adjustable drivers/fairways…

The advent of the adjustability device has completely taken over the driver category. There are very few sold today that are not adjustable, and there are a myriad of devices and principles espoused by the various manufacturers. But I’ve always been puzzled by one very important aspect of this. It would seem to me that to be truly “tweakable,” the driver shaft would have to perform in an identical fashion regardless of the position to which it has been rotated.

But we know that even the finest graphite shafts are not completely straight, completely round or completely symmetrical in flex performance. The fact is that, at 100-plus mph, the driver shaft is exhibiting a lot of split-second dynamics, and those can change depending on the orientation of the shaft into the clubhead. That’s why we have the concepts of “spine-ing” shafts and even more sophisticated “Pure-ing.” The problem is that we don’t know what we don’t know about any specific shaft. I’ll leave the rest of this conundrum to your own head-scratching.

Forged blade irons vs. mainstream wedges

Being a wedge junkie, this one puzzles me the most. Statistics indicate less than two percent of all golfers game a true single-piece forged blade iron (but a large percentage of tour players still favor them).

I’ve heard all the reasons…

“The thin top line is intimidating.”
“I can’t get the ball flight I need from the lower lofts.”
“I’m not good enough to play these.”
“They are not forgiving enough.”
“Blah. Blah. Blah.”

But yet 95 percent or more of all wedges sold are of the same design favored by the tour players. Single piece cast or forged designs…just like tour blade irons. Heavy and stiff steel shafts…just like tour blade irons. I can’t make sense of that, but with very few exceptions, that’s all the industry gives us, isn’t it?

Let me share a little secret that no one will tell you. On an “Iron Byron” swing robot, a tour blade 9-iron is much more forgiving of mishits than any of the current mainstream wedges.

Does that make any sense at all?

I think I might have just opened a can of worms, and we can spend lots of time talking about this, I’m sure. And we probably should. Please sound off with your comments on this first handful of topics, and let’s tackle some more.

What makes you go “hmm…”?

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Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”.   But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

31 Comments

31 Comments

  1. Greg

    Aug 21, 2019 at 9:13 pm

    Terry

    The Iron Byron info related to single piece blades is telling.
    But i play the Ft Worth 15 and TH/SCOR wedges.
    So I agree with you

  2. GMFlash

    Aug 17, 2019 at 8:01 am

    Terry –

    In addition Rob’s comment above regarding momentum is true, and the fact that Cleveland Srixon makes their clubs heavier to increase swing MOI in many of their designs also helps create greater distance. In a regular cast cavity back the Z-355 irons are my longest to date and the 355 Driver the straightest. In other drivers I have I have added weight until my swing speed goes down – this gives me maximum momentum for my ability.

  3. GMFlash

    Aug 17, 2019 at 7:51 am

    Terry –
    Appreciate the article. Started to take golf seriously about 20 years ago at age 45. From the beginning I read and was told that I could not play forged irons, even though they looked and felt the best to me when demo-ing them at my local Golfsmith. I immediately began to try them all. The problem I found was not the head but finding such “better player” clubs with softer than usual flex shafts that worked for me was really difficult. So I got into club making and mixed and matched shafts that worked with various forged sets, and found I played just as well with those sets, and enjoyed the game more with forged clubs (cavity muscle backs mostly). Presently however I use forged clubs from the 6 or seven iron down – distance comes from hybrids now.

    But one of the biggest developments in club design for me was the implementation of the V-sole (TK invention) which I have on my collection of Cleveland /Srixon clubs (Cleveland CBX, Z-565, Z-765, and Z-355). I shoot my lowest scores with these and am convinced that it is because the way the v-sole interacts with the turf that keeps my clubbed speed up and along the target line. My success with these led me to purchase a set of used SCOR 4161 wedges (42, 47, 51, 55, 61) that have the first V-sole. Despite the small head I am amazed how these clubs always seem to be right on the pin, and go the distance I intend. And they weren’t even fitted to me. So I use the V-sole through my entire set and this design really works. Finally, at least with the scoring irons (6-wedge) my distance with cast cavity backs and forged clubs is virtually the same given the same loft. I am, most of the time on the center of the face.

    My most recent experiment is with hollow hybrid like irons with which I have not had success and never liked the feel, sound or turf interaction until I discovered the Tour Edge CB Proh irons. Forged face hollow with a V-like sole in the 3-7 iron, these perform for me especially with the stock fujikura fuel reg. flex shaft. I never like the fat soles of hybrid irons, but these get through the turf very smoothly and as with the other v-sole clubs are more along the my target line than other clubs I’ve tried – and the distances are consistent too.

    So – the v-sole is really works in CBX, RTX-3, RTX-4, SCOR 4161. And in my experience mid handicap plays like myself can indeed play with forged clubs provided other parts of the club equation are in place for their swing dynamics.

  4. Ed james

    Aug 16, 2019 at 1:03 pm

    If one sets his adjustable club for a certain bias, wouldn’t it be a) more difficult to work the shot in the direction opposite the bias, and b) exacerbate a miss in the same direction as the bias?

  5. Skip

    Aug 14, 2019 at 5:31 pm

    He actually thinks Puring matters. LOL.

    • Rob

      Aug 14, 2019 at 8:59 pm

      Makes great sense to me, and agree 100% with the wedge comment vs. the forged 9-iron. I play blades with confidence but struggle with my wedge play. What I get is I need more wedge/short game practice time. Very, very good news to know. Many thanks. Have not heard this comment from a professional instructor or club fitter to date.

  6. whatevs

    Aug 14, 2019 at 7:42 am

    I’m still wondering why this dude has a sopabox to preach from. He’s killed every company he started, often soon after it starts, and knows so little about equipment he thinks spine and flow still matter when they haven’t been anything other than snake oil for 10 years.

  7. Nomad Golfer

    Aug 14, 2019 at 7:20 am

    It was good to see Ben Hogan clubs come back into the industry, I only have one BH club and that is a forged 47* Apex Plus ‘E’ along with a Lovett LW which covers all the pitching and sand ploughing I need. Golf in the seventies with the smaller rubber wound balls and wooden clubs was a lot different from today.. When you bought a medium priced set of clubs (like Spalding) the highest loft was the 9 iron and you bought the PW and SW separately, how things have changed.

    • Bob Jones

      Aug 14, 2019 at 3:20 pm

      Ben Hogan clubs have never left. Go to eBay, buy a set of Red Line irons, and have them retro-fitted.

  8. Charles Knox

    Aug 13, 2019 at 10:54 pm

    Terry, that was a phenomenal piece. The secret re: Iron Byron and a tour 9 iron versus wedge absolutely blew me away. At my very best, I played to a plus 3.4. Played two years of mini tour golf and put 198,000 miles on a Honda Prelude, playing across North America. Today, I don’t even keep score. But all of the posts I read today, the clubs sold by players here, many soft and hard stepped, spined or pured, blah, blah, blah, blah… Leads me to wonder: How is the NGF SO WRONG about quality of play in 2019. Considering the equipment, EVERYONE must be a scratch player or better ????

  9. John B

    Aug 13, 2019 at 8:04 pm

    I grew up with a P and an S club and was a very good wedge player not knowing loft, bounce, grind or lie angle. We just bought those clubs stamped P and S and learned how to use them. I’m not sure I am a better wedge player today.

  10. Rob

    Aug 13, 2019 at 5:51 pm

    Is it really so simple as to say more speed equals more distance? The physics of the club/ball interaction is elastic collision, which means momentum is what matters. Momentum is mass x velocity. More mass or more velocity equals more momentum, but if you change both variables in opposite ways, you can’t say for sure what happens to momentum.

    • Brent Anderson

      Aug 14, 2019 at 3:18 pm

      This right here.

    • CJB

      Aug 16, 2019 at 5:34 am

      I would like to see more discussion about this. I tried discussing it once with our club pro but he sort of dismissed it.

      I believe the benefits of a heavier club have been overlooked by manufacturers. Heavier heads give more feedback and feeling during the swing and I feel that they are easier to swing on a natural plane. Plus the extra mass must be good at impact – getting hit by a bus at 30mph will know you a lot further than being hit a 30mph by a go cart – I think! or am I wrong?

      • geohogan

        Dec 29, 2019 at 7:25 am

        @CJB, totally agree

        Most club heads (drivers) decelerate at impact by 20-25%.

        Heavier heads will decelerate less, IF the shaft used is stiff enough and short enough.

        All top shafts have the same tip diameter. At a certain length of shaft, that tip diameter cannot stabilize the clubhead at impact, regardless how stiff.
        That limit of length is 45 inches.

        Only one shaft designer I know has done the calculations.

        His shaft, the Nunchuk is designed with the bend point near the center of the shaft, not near the tip. All twisting and bending occurs during the DS and not at impact, as long as total length is less than 45 inches.

        Shafts less than 45 inches in length(club length), can maintain SW with more weight in the clubhead, another plus, as you point out, CJB.
        This shaft design also eliminates gear effect as well as , deceleration at impact is less than 8%.

  11. ALAN L STEIN

    Aug 13, 2019 at 4:23 pm

    That’s my old Palmer Peerless persimmon driver!

  12. Curtis

    Aug 13, 2019 at 3:42 pm

    I’ll never respect pros till clubs and golf balls get rolled back. Personally I think the equipment does to much work for them. Swing accuracy should matter more. They are very spoiled these days.

    • NRJyzr

      Aug 13, 2019 at 4:05 pm

      The golf ball has been regulated for decades, since the original ODS was implemented. And, the ball was actually rolled back a bit when the new test protocols were introduced.

      The golf balls aren’t the problem.

    • Doug Dobney

      Aug 13, 2019 at 4:16 pm

      Oh noes the best golfers in the world don’t have Curtis’ respect. How will they go on?

    • Nomad Golfer

      Aug 14, 2019 at 7:25 am

      But even with all the modern tech they spray their tee shots every which way in pursuit of distance. I prefer to stay on the fairway.

      • whatevs

        Aug 14, 2019 at 7:40 am

        Of course you prefer it because you can’t hit it as far as them

        • Nils Nelson

          Aug 14, 2019 at 4:20 pm

          Switch to decaf, perhaps?

          • John L Wullkotte

            Aug 18, 2019 at 8:11 am

            You tell em Nils. There is nothing prettier than a custom made persimmon driver made by you know who.

      • Mike

        Aug 16, 2019 at 1:18 pm

        Have you been to a tour event before and saw them “spray it”? I’d love to have their “spray” shots. When you swing it 125MPH a degree or two off is a lot larger miss than when you’re swinging it 95MPH.

        If you’re playing a 7200 yard course first things first. You have to be long enough to play the course regardless of hitting a fairway. “I can stop my 9 iron out of the rough faster than you can stop your 6 iron from the fairway” -B Koepka

  13. Fitz

    Aug 13, 2019 at 1:06 pm

    What makes me go Hmmm?

    That one of the finest wedge and iron designers in the world isn’t producing wedges and irons for the marketplace.

  14. Juststeve

    Aug 13, 2019 at 12:53 pm

    What makes the ball go so much further is the ball. Modern drivers contribute but the biggest factor is the modern ball. It was when Nike then Titleist introduced the solid multi-layer ball that driving distances shot up.

    • NRJyzr

      Aug 13, 2019 at 4:10 pm

      Strata was the first solid core multilayer ball. Bridgestone was in there ahead of Nike, also.

      Driving distance change from the solid core ball was all of 5.5 yards. There was a bigger spike due to the mass move to 400cc+ drivers, and launch monitor introduction, a couple years later.

  15. Reid Thompson

    Aug 13, 2019 at 12:11 pm

    Here’s one. Why do they say hit it on the screws when the screws were never in the middle?

    • Ben Hargraves

      Aug 14, 2019 at 7:44 am

      It’s actually the sweet spot, all part of the gear effect. That’s why persimmon woods are so workable

      • Robert Coggins

        Aug 14, 2019 at 3:08 pm

        Golf today is a farce, golf should have been baseball, make the pros play with wood.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Myrtle Beach, Explored: February in South Carolina

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As I gain in experience and age, and familiarity breeds neither contempt nor disdain, I understand why people return to a place. A destination like Myrtle Beach offers a sizable supply and diversity of restaurants, entertainment venues, and shops that are predicated on the tenets of the service industry. Greet your customers with a smile and a kind word, and they will find comfort and assurance. Provide them with a memorable experience and they will suggest your place of business to others.

My first tour of Myrtle Beach took place in the mid-1980s, and consisted of one course: Gator Hole. I don’t remember much from that day, and since Gator Hole closed a decade later, I cannot revisit it to recollect what I’d lost. Since then, I’ve come to the Grand Strand a few times, and been fortunate to never place a course more than once. I’ve seen the Strantz courses to the south and dipped my toe in the North Carolina courses of Calabash. I’ve been to many in the middle, including Dunes, Pine Lakes, Grande Dunes among them.

2024 brought a quartet of new courses, including two at the Barefoot Resort. I’d heard about the North Myrtle Beach four-pack of courses that highlight the Barefoot property, including layouts from Pete Dye, Tom Fazio, Davis Love III, and Greg Norman. I had the opportunity to play and shoot the Dye and Fazio tracks, which means that I’ll have to return to see the other two. Sandwiched between them were the TPC-Myrtle Beach course, also from Tom Fazio, and the Pawley’s Plantation trace, by the hand of Jack Nicklaus. I anticipated a bit of the heroic, and bit of the strategic, and plenty of eye candy. None of those architects would ever be considered a minimalist, so there would be plenty of in-play and out-of-play bunkers and mounds to tantalize the senses.

My nephew arrived a few days early, to screen a few more courses. As a result, you the reader will have an extra quarter of mini-reviews, bringing the total of courses in this piece to eight. It was inconceivable that CJR would play four courses that I had never played nor photographed, but that was the case. His words appear at the end of this piece. We hope that you enjoy the tour.

Main Feature: Two Barefoots, a TPC, and Pawley’s Plantation

Barefoot Dye

What Paul “Pete” Dye brought back from his trips to the United Kingdom, hearkened back to what C.B. MacDonal did, some 65 years prior. There is a way of finding bunkers and fairways, and even green sites, that does not require major industrial work. The Dye course at Barefoot Resorts takes you on a journey over the rumpled terrain of distant places. If there’s one element missing, it’s the creased and turbulent fairways, so often found in England and Ireland. The one tenet of playing a Dye course, is to always aim away from temptation, from where your eyes draw you. Find the safe side of the target, and you’ll probably find your ball. It then stands that you will have a shot for your next attempt. Cut the corner, and you might have need to reload. The Barefoot course begins gently, in terms of distance, but challenges with visual deception. After two brief 4s and a 3, the real work begins. The course is exposed enough, to allow the coastal winds to dance along the fairways. Be ready to keep the ball low and take an extra club or two.

TPC-Myrtle Beach

If memory serves, TPCMB is my first trek around a TPC-branded course. It had all the trappings of a tour course, from the welcome, through the clubhouse, to the practice facilities and, of course, the course. TPC-Myrtle Beach is a Tom Fazio design, and if you never visit Augusta National, you’ll now have an idea of what it is like. You play Augusta’s 16th hole twice at TPCMB, and you enjoy it both times. Fazio really likes the pond-left, green-angle-around par three hole, and his two iterations of it are memorable.

You’ll also see those Augusta bunkers, the ones with the manicured edges that drop into a modestly-circular form. What distinguishes these sand pits is the manner in which they rise from the surrounding ground. They are unique in that they don’t resemble the geometric bunkering of a Seth Raynor, nor the organic pits found in origin courses. They are built, make no mistake, and recovery from them is manageable for all levels of bunker wizardry.

Barefoot Fazio

If you have the opportunity to play the two Tom Fazio courses back to back, you’ll notice a marked difference in styling. Let me digress for a moment, then circle back with an explanation. It was written that the NLE World Woods course designed by Fazio, Pine Barrens, was an homage to Pine Valley, the legendary, New Jersey club where Fazio is both a member and the architect on retainer. The Pine Barrens course was plowed under in 2022, so the homage no longer exists. At least, I didn’t think that it existed, until I played his Barefoot Resort course in North Myrtle Beach.

Pine Valley might be described as an aesthetic of scrub and sand. There are mighty, forced carries to travers, along with sempiternal, sandy lairs to avoid. Barefoot Fazio is quite similar. If you’re not faced with a forced carry, you’ll certainly contend with a fairway border or greenside necklace of sand. When you reach the 13th tee, you’ll face a drive into a fairway, and you might see a distant green, with a notable absence: flagstick. The 13th is the icing on the homage cake, a callout of the 8th hole at Pine Valley. Numero Ocho at the OG has two greens, side by side, and they change the manner in which the hole plays (so they say.) At Barefoot Fazio, the right-side green is a traditional approach, with an unimpeded run of fairway to putting surface. The left-side green (the one that I was fortunate to play) demands a pitch shot over a wasteland. It’s a fitting tribute for the rest of us to play.

Be certain to parrot the starter, Leon’s, advice, and play up a deck of tees. Barefoot Fazio offers five par-three holes, so the fours and fives play that much longer. Remember, too, that you are on vacation. Why not treat yourself to some birdie looks?

Pawley’s Plantation

The Jack Nicklaus course at Pawley’s Plantation emerged from a period of hibernation in 2024. The greens were torn up and their original contours were restored. Work was overseen by Troy Vincent, a member of the Nicklaus Architecture team. In addition, the putting corridors were reseeded with a hardier, dwarf bermuda that has experienced great success, all along the Grand Strand that is Myrtle Beach.

My visit allowed me to see the inward half first, and I understand why the resort wishes to conclude your day on those holes. The front nine of Pawley’s Plantation works its way through familiar, low country trees and wetlands. The back nine begins in similar fashion, then makes its way east, toward the marsh that separates mainland from Pawley’s Island. Recalling the powerful sun of that Wednesday morning, any round beginning on the second nine would face collateral damage from the warming star. Much better to hit holes 11 to close when the sun is higher in the sky.

The marshland holes (12 through 17) are spectacular in their raw, unprotected nature. The winds off the Atlantic are unrelenting and unforgiving, and the twin, par-three holes will remain in your memory banks for time’s march. In typical Golden Bear fashion, a majority of his putting targets are smallish in nature, reflecting his appreciation for accurate approach shots. Be sure to find the forgiving side of each green, and err to that portion. You’ll be grateful.

Bonus Coverage: Myrtlewood, Beechwood, Arrowhead, and King’s North

Arrowhead (Raymond Floyd and Tom Jackson)

A course built in the middle of a community, water threatens on most every hole. The Cypress 9 provides a few holes forcing a carried drive then challenge you with water surrounding the green. On Waterway, a drivable 2nd hole will tempt most, so make sure the group ahead has cleared the green.

Myrtlewood (Edmund Alt and Arthur Hills) and Beechwood (Gene Hamm)

A middle of the winter New Englander’s paradise. Wide open fairways, zero blind shots and light rough allow for shaking off the rust and plenty of forgiveness. A plethora of dog legs cause one to be cautious with every tee shot. Won’t break the bank nor the scorecard.

King’s North @ Myrtle Beach National (Arnold Palmer)

A signature Arnold Palmer course, waste areas, island greens and daring tee shots. Highlighted by the 4th hole Par 5 Gambler hole, if you can hit the smaller fairway on the left you are rewarded with a short approach to get to the green in 2. The back 9 is highlighted by an island green par 3 and a finisher with over 40 bunkers spread throughout. A challenge for any golfer.
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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Players Championship betting preview: Pete Dye specialists ready to pass tough TPC Sawgrass test

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The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass to play in one of the most prestigious and important events of the season: THE PLAYERS Championship. Often referred to as the fifth major, the importance of a PLAYERS victory to the legacy of a golfer can’t be overlooked.

TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 measuring 7,245 yards and featuring Bermudagrass greens. Golfers must be patient in attacking this Pete Dye course.

With trouble lurking at every turn, the strokes can add up quickly. With a par-5 16th that is a true risk-reward hole and the famous par-3 17th island green, the only safe bet at TPC Sawgrass is a bet on an exciting finish.

THE PLAYERS Championship field is often referred to as the strongest field of the year — and with good reason. There are 144 in the field, including 43 of the world’s top 50 players in the OWGR. Tiger Woods will not be playing in the event.

THE PLAYERS is an exceptionally volatile event that has never seen a back-to-back winner.

Past Winners at TPC Sawgrass

  • 2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17)
  • 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • 2017: Si-Woo Kim (-10)
  • 2016: Jason Day (-15)
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler (-12)In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

5 Key Stats for TPC Sawgrass

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for TPC Sawgrass to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been far and away the most important and predictive stat at THE PLAYERS Championship. With water everywhere, golfers can’t afford to be wild with their iron shots. Not only is it essential to avoid the water, but it will also be as important to go after pins and make birdies because scores can get relatively low.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.37) 
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.20)
  3. Tony Finau (+0.99)
  4. Jake Knapp (+0.83)
  5. Shane Lowry (+0.80)

2. Total Driving

This statistic is perfect for TPC Sawgrass. Historically, driving distance hasn’t been a major factor, but since the date switch to March, it’s a bit more significant. During this time of year, the ball won’t carry quite as far, and the runout is also shorter.

Driving accuracy is also crucial due to all of the trouble golfers can get into off of the tee. Therefore, players who are gaining on the field with Total Driving will put themselves in an ideal spot this week.

Total Driving Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy (22)
  2. Akshay Bhatia (25)
  3. Keith Mitchell (25) 
  4. Adam Hadwin (34)
  5. Sam Burns (+39)

3. Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design, and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved runoff areas and tricky green complexes.  Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.

SG: Total (Pete Dye) per round over past 36 rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.90)
  3. Min Woo Lee (+1.77) 
  4. Sungjae Im (+1.72)
  5. Brian Harman (+1.62) 

4. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Prototypical ball-strikers have dominated TPC Sawgrass. With past winners like Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, it’s evident that golfers must be striking it pure to contend at THE PLAYERS.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.02)
  2. Tony Finau (+1.51)
  3. Tom Hoge (+1.48)
  4. Keith Mitchell (+1.38)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.18)

5. Par 5 Average

Par-5 average is extremely important at TPC Sawgrass. With all four of the Par-5s under 575 yards, and three of them under 540 yards, a good amount of the scoring needs to come from these holes collectively.

Par 5 Average Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Schefler (+4.31)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+4.35)
  3. Doug Ghim (+4.34)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+4.34)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.31)

6. Strokes Gained: Florida

We’ve used this statistic over the past few weeks, and I’d like to incorporate some players who do well in Florida into this week’s model as well. 

Strokes Gained: Florida over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.43)
  2. Erik Van Rooyen (+1.78)
  3. Doug Ghim (+1.78)
  4. Wyndham Clark (+1.73)
  5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+1.69)

7. Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger

With water everywhere at TPC Sawgrass, the blow-up potential is high. It can’t hurt to factor in some players who’ve avoided the “eject” button most often in the past. 

Strokes Gained: Total on Courses with High Water Danger over past 30 rounds:

  1. Scottie Schefler (+2.08)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+1.82)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.62)
  4. Patrick Cantlay (+1.51)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+1.49)

THE PLAYERS Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (25%), Total Driving (20%), SG: Total Pete Dye (14%), SG: Ball-striking (15%) SG: Par 5 (8%), SG: Florida (10%) and SG: High Water (8%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler 
  2. Shane Lowry 
  3. Tony Finau 
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Keith Mitchell
  6. Justin Thomas
  7. Will Zalatoris
  8. Xander Schauffele
  9. Cameron Young
  10. Doug Ghim
  11. Sam Burns 
  12. Chris Kirk
  13. Collin Morikawa
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Wyndham Clark

2024 THE PLAYERS Championship Picks

(All odds at the time of writing)

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (DraftKings):

Patrick Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship but is undoubtedly one of the most talented players on the PGA Tour. Since the win at Wilmington Country Club, the 31-year-old has twelve top-10 finishes on Tour and is starting to round into form for the 2024 season.

Cantlay has done well in the most recent “signature” events this season, finishing 4th at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational and 12th at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The former Tour Championship winner resides in Jupiter, Florida and has played some good golf in the state, including finishing in a tie for 4th at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. His history at TPC Sawgrass has been up and down, but his best career start at The PLAYERS came last year when he finished in a tie for 19th.

Cantlay absolutely loves Pete Dye designed courses and ranks 1st in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks in his past 36 rounds. In recent years, he’s been excellent at both the RBC Heritage and the Travelers Championship. TPC Sawgrass is a place where players will have to be dialed in with their irons and distance off the tee won’t be quite as important. In his past 24, rounds, Cantlay ranks in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Despite being winless in recent years, I still believe Cantlay is capable of winning big tournaments. As one of the only United States players to bring their best game to Marco Simone for the Ryder Cup, I have conviction that the former top amateur in the world can deliver when stakes are high.

Will Zalatoris +3000 (FanDuel):

In order to win at TPC Sawgrass, players will need to be in total control of their golf ball. At the moment, Will Zalatoris is hitting it as well as almost anyone and finally has the putter cooperating with his new switch to the broomstick style.

Zalatoris is coming off back-to-back starts where he absolutely striped the ball. He finished 2nd at the Genesis Invitational and 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where his statistics were eye opening. For the week at Bay Hill, Zal gained 5.0 strokes on approach and 5.44 strokes off the tee.

Throughout the early part of his career, Zalatoris has established himself by playing his best golf in the strongest fields with the most difficult conditions. A tough test will allow him to separate himself this week and breakthrough for a PLAYERS Championship victory.

Shane Lowry +4000 (DraftKings):

History has shown us that players need to be in good form to win the PLAYERS Championship and it’s hard to find anyone not named Scottie Scheffler who’s in better form that Shane Lowry at the moment. He finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic followed by a solo third place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The fact that the Irishman contended at Bay Hill is a great sign considering he’s really struggled there throughout his career. He will now head to a different style of course in Florida where he’s had a good deal of success. He finished 8th at TPC Sawgrass in 2021 and 13th in 2022. 

Lowry ranks 6th in the field in approach in his past 24 rounds, 7th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye designed courses in his last 30 rounds, 8th in par 5 scoring this season, and 4th in Strokes Gained: Total in Florida over his past 36 rounds.

Lowry is a player who’s capable of winning big events. He’s a major champion and won another premier event at Wentworth as well as a WGC at Firestone. He’s also a form player, when he wins it’s typically when he’s contended in recent starts. He’s been terrific thus far in Florida and he should get into contention once again this week.

Brian Harman +8000 (DraftKings):

(Note: Since writing this Harman’s odds have plummeted to 50-1. I would not advise betting the 50).

Brian Harman showed us last season that if the course isn’t extremely long, he has the accuracy both off the tee and with his irons to compete with anyone in the world. Last week at Bay Hill and was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.54 strokes on the field in the category.

In addition to the strong iron play, Harman also gained strokes off the tee in three of four rounds. He’s also had success at Pete Dye tracks recently. He finished 2nd at last year’s Travelers Championship and 7th at the RBC Heritage.

It would be a magnificent feat for Harman to win both the Open Championship and PLAYERS in a short time frame, but the reality is the PGA Tour isn’t quite as strong as it once was. Harman is a player who shows up for the biggest events and his odds seem way too long for his recent track record.

Tony Finau +6500 (FanDuel):

A few weeks ago, at the Genesis Invitational, I bet Hideki Matsuyama because I believed it to be a “bet the number” play at 80-1. I feel similarly about Finau this week. While he’s not having the season many people expected of him, he is playing better than these odds would indicate.

This season, Tony has a tied for 6th place finish at Torrey Pines, a tied for 19th at Riviera and tied for 13th at the Mexico Open. He’s also hitting the ball extremely well. In the field in his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 5 average and 15th in Total Driving.

Finau’s problem has been with the putter, which has been undeniably horrific. However, this week he will see a putting surface similar to the POA at TPC Scottsdale and PGA West, which he’s had a great deal of success on. It’s worth taking a stab at this price to see if he can have a mediocre week with the flat stick.

Sungjae Im +9000 (FanDuel):

It’s been a lackluster eighteen months for Sungjae, who once appeared to be a certain star. While his ceiling is absolutely still there, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Im play the type of golf expected of a player with his talent.

Despite the obvious concerns, the South Korean showed glimpses of a return to form last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He tied for 18th place and gained strokes off the tee, on approach, around the green and with the putter. When at his best, Im is a perfect course fit for TPC Sawgrass. He has remarkable precision off the tee, can get dialed in with his irons on shorter courses and can get up and down with the best players on Tour.

This number has gotten to the point where I feel comfortable taking a shot on it.

Billy Horschel +20000 (FanDuel):

Billy Horschel is a great fit on paper for TPC Sawgrass. He can get dialed in with his irons and his lack of distance off the tee won’t be a major detriment at the course. “Bermuda Billy” does his best work putting on Bermudagrass greens and he appears to be rounding into form just in time to compete at The PLAYERS.

In his most recent start, Billy finished in a tie for 9th at the Cognizant Classic and hit the ball extremely well. The former Florida Gator gained 3.32 strokes on approach and 2.04 strokes off the tee. If Horschel brings that type of ball striking to TPC Sawgrass, he has the type of putter who can win a golf tournament.

Horschel has been great on Pete Dye designed courses, with four of his seven career PGA Tour wins coming on Dye tracks.

In a season that has seen multiple long shots win big events, the 37-year-old is worth a stab considering his knack for playing in Florida and winning big events.

 

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