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The Wedge Guy: Failure to amaze…

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Once again, I thank all of you for the feedback to last week’s post about the driver being the first scoring club. If everyone agreed with everything I write, this wouldn’t be nearly as fun and challenging as it is. So, keep up the feedback and challenges to my logic as we go forward, OK? I think I might push some of your buttons again today, so here goes.

I had one of those airline trips from hell last Monday, trying to get back from a visit to my nephew and his family in Boise. For the first time in my life, I saw our plane returned to the gate because our crew “timed out” while we were on the tarmac awaiting a delayed take-off. That led to a series of setbacks, which eventually put me back in Houston at 1:00 a.m., almost five hours later than scheduled…with a 2-1/2 hour drive still ahead of me.

Then, I woke up Tuesday morning with a head-cold-from-hell, which has had me in its grip ever since. That put me on the sofa watching more TV than I would on a typical weekend. And that allowed me to watch more of the Charles Schwab (Colonial) than I probably would have otherwise, along with some NBA and baseball.

Now, I’ll admit I have become a bit of a curmudgeon when it comes to professional golf. Not that I’m bad-tempered or anything, but I am a bit cantankerous. The game’s evolution from identifying those who have achieved broad mastery of all shotmaking, to those who are the strongest physical specimens and have great short games has simply lost me. When I tune into any professional athletic event, I fully expect, and want to be, AMAZED.

The NBA always does that, with a consistent show of unbelievable athleticism and shotmaking. I’m sure basketball purists argue about the evolution of the game from Chamberlain and Russell, to Bird and Magic, to Michael, to Steph and LeBron…but throughout my 50-plus years of watching, these guys almost always put on an impressive show of skills. Same goes for the NFL. I am not a follower of major league baseball, and don’t know many players, but an hour in front of the TV will almost always entertain you with amazing fielding and hitting displays.

Forgive me for my cynicism, but I just don’t get that amazed by PGA Tour golf anymore. In my hours of time in front of the TV, there were just too few instances of shotmaking prowess that made me go “wow.” One stat on Saturday showed that Jordan Spieth had made something like four hundred feet of putts in 2-1/2 rounds. Heck yeah, that’s impressive…but hardly riveting television. What I was looking for were pinpoint irons shots that set up birdies and a serious challenge to whoever was in the lead.

Congratulations are certainly due to Kevin Na for holding off everyone, but who really put a charge on to challenge him? Time and again, players looked like they might gain some ground, only to be derailed by poor driving and iron play. Maybe not “poor” by our amateur standards, but I’m not sure I saw more than one or two irons shots that just tore the flag down. What I did seem to see were lots of drives in the rough, short iron and wedge shots long, short or wide of the greens, and plenty of greenside recovery shots, too often followed by par attempts from well outside 6-8 feet.

Lee Trevino once said that there are two things that don’t last long – “dogs that chase cars and pros that putt for pars.” The point I believe he was making at the time was that he saw professional golf as a game of precision shotmaking, and that meant driving it in the fairway and hitting greens. And by my observation, the stars of the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s were pretty darn good at that kind of golf.

Ben Hogan was noted for hitting fairways and greens with commanding precision. Byron Nelson was so straight they named the first swing robot after him. Gene Littler was known as “Gene the Machine”. Johnny Miller set the bar tremendously high for knocking flags down, from nearly any range. Bear in mind his 63 at Oakmont to win the U.S. Open in 1966 was the result of hitting nearly every green, though 14 of this approach shots were hit with a 5-iron or longer. Pretty amazing stuff even if it weren’t a U.S. Open layout, wouldn’t you say?

Before you all want me tarred and feathered for lack of respect for the modern tour professional, let me say that these guys at the top have done what it takes to achieve modern greatness. The talent pool is very deep these days, as evidenced by the huge number of different winners every year. But other than Tiger, who has attained – and maintained – a constantly high level of performance from week-to-week, year-to-year for any length of time over the past twenty years or so? And in reality, do yesterday’s stars become today’s also-rans because others have passed them, or because they lost whatever it was they had found for that fleeting period of time?

In any era, in any sport, the singular challenge is to achieve a higher level of skill than the next guy (or team). On any given day or week, golf’s top players do that, but to me it just doesn’t make for riveting viewing any longer.

I accept that professional golf has changed dramatically in my lifetime, and that it will never again be what it once was. So, I’ll keep watching, hoping to be amazed…After all, we have the U.S. Open and The Open Championship still to come.

P.S. Next week, I promise to return to topics that will hopefully help you improve your golf this season. If you have any topics you would like to see me address, please drop me an email at [email protected].

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Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”.   But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

46 Comments

46 Comments

  1. John Erickson

    Jun 3, 2019 at 12:47 am

    Terry, I could not agree more. As a former tour player who dedicated a life to golf, I don’t even watch the game anymore. I have zero interest in the decline of the game, the courses, the giant frying pan drivers, wide fairways, huge perfect greens, little penalty for errant driving. Golf is a total bore to me. When I played on tour, you had to drive it in the fairway just as Hogan said.. “it’s the most important shot to set up the hole”. We had to place the ball on the green and below the hole, and often the greens were far from perfect. Less than perfect greens made golf more of a ball strikers game. With perfect greens, the great putters can run the table. I liked it when the greens were not so perfect because it took that advantage out of the lights out putters. They would still make more but not as many. Moe Norman told me once that anyone could make a 30 foot putt…. even a beginner, but it took great still to hit a 1 iron 30 feet from the hole. This new version of golf is a different as baseball is to softball. The game needs a persimmon and balata reset. Simple really.

  2. scooter

    May 30, 2019 at 9:33 pm

    Having attended the Colonial this past weekend, I was again reminded how much more amazing the game is in person as opposed to watching it on TV. I agree, TV concentrates too much on putts and doesn’t show enough of the field. In person, you can see the green slopes and realize how small the targets are to get the ball close and score on some greens with tucked pins. And you’re able to watch short game techniques that are really amazing when they’ve short-sided themselves in long rough or bunkers … by not covering the field you don’t see the “fails” at some of these difficult shots and realize just how small the margin for error is. Same goes for trouble shots when the drives go astray. And it’s great to see all the tee shot variations at Colonial’s tight hole #5 with out of bounds on both sides, all the way from tee to green. Bottom line, MUCH more interesting in person and kind of boring on TV.

  3. KW

    May 30, 2019 at 7:55 pm

    Some good points on both sides, but I think much of the “lack of amazement” is not realizing just how hard and precise this game is. 1/8″ off a 100mph clubface can be mediocre to disastrous. We play our casual rounds and hit that approach shot from 120yds to 20′ and are disappointed. Yet the average pro approach shot is 22′ and the very best in the world probably average 11′–just saying, the game is really hard!

  4. greg mcneill

    May 30, 2019 at 10:46 am

    I admit I quit reading when you wrote that Miller won the US Open in 1966. That was probably the most famous final round in US Open history and you can’t get the year right? (It was 1973, btw. Casper beat Palmer in ’66 when Arnie blew a 7 shot lead in the last 9 holes).

  5. Championship

    May 30, 2019 at 5:16 am

    Do you get “amazed” by a Friday night regular season Knicks vs Cavs 30-pt blowout win? That is the equivalent of what the Colonial was. Not every tournament is going to be A+, but doesn’t make sense to make blanket statements like that.

    Also, you are celebrating the raw athletic talent you see in the NBA, but then saying the same thing makes golf boring with the longer hitters? The game has changed, but there is still PLENTY more than long drives out there, which is why the world long drivers aren’t the same guys on the Tour.

    Did golf not just bring us what is widely considered to be one of the greatest moments in sports history about a month ago at The Masters? Pretty amazing to me

  6. Sahil

    May 30, 2019 at 3:09 am

    There are guys in my club who have the ability to make shots from almost anywhere. These guys have lost their ability to hit the ball far. They use golf clubs that are yonkers old. They have genuine golf skills that could challenge any pro’s approach shot. They are shot makers. We obsessed with distance and this philosophy of “distance is king” has been hammered home by the golf club industry obviously to make more money which is fair in a lot of ways but at the same time golfers need to make that choice. I’d like to see a pro tournament where drivers and 3 woods are disallowed, to genuinely see who’s the best golfer. Grip it and rip it, is way too taxing on the body, ask Tiger, Jason Day, Rory. If every pro golfer is almost always making 40-50ft putts , it does make the game boring and also gives us amateurs an unrealistic view on how golf is played. Adapting to different course. playing parkland one week and a links the next. Then we have professional golfers actually complaining about the difficulty of a course, they actually say the course is too difficult. really!!!! pros practice 8 hours a day, this is their job. It’s amazing what babies they are. So I definitely agree, true skills and shot-making on approach shots and around the green is a skill that needs to be brought back. Having a birdie putt from 40-50ft is the norm, then emphasis falls onto putting and then putters and then the industry coming out with new putters, its a viscous cycle. Golf at heart is about loving the game. Spending time on the course and testing your skills.

  7. Donn

    May 30, 2019 at 2:29 am

    1. TV coverage is pretty bad. Too much time is of the anchors yakk yakk, not enough of the whole field making full swing shots. And Yes, too much TV is just the putt. In the Masters, if I am home watching, I would like them to broadcast at least 40 or 50 of the tee shots from the 1st tee, more tee shots all over the course, even guys in the middle of the pack.

    2. Is it just me, or do we see way too many mid and long putts fall way too short? I keep reading that 0 % of puts that are too short will ever go in, right?

    3. At Colonial, last 2 rounds, I saw Finau swing a lot. Yikes. His swing is far from textbook, but I didn’t hear any comments. Is Furyk’s swing the only one where it is ok to call it weird?

    4. I think it is time to redesign some courses to add more risks or actual dead zones at 300 yards. More doglegs, or severe narrowing of the fairway from say 300 to 330 yards, to force more of the big hitters to play the locations like courses presented to the pros 40 years ago. When most of the par 4s are wedges to the green, it is monotonous as Koepka said.

  8. Terence Gillmore

    May 29, 2019 at 8:57 pm

    Trevino said that what can’t last is “chipping for pars” not “putting for pars”

  9. Dave r

    May 29, 2019 at 7:31 pm

    Watching LPGA golf us older types can relate better. The smash boys really not worth watching anymore . It’s the same old thing hit it as far as you can find it and repeat . I watched the college golf and they are hitting 6 and 7 irons 210 yards was wondering what the wedge guy thinks are 6 irons really 6 irons or are they 6 irons with a 4-5 iron lofts. Would agree watching golf on tv is like watching paint dry.

  10. Geoffrey Holland

    May 29, 2019 at 6:07 pm

    What a garbage article.

  11. Darrin Lygrisse

    May 29, 2019 at 5:44 pm

    You know what fails to amaze me these days? Sports writing.

    There used to be an old adage in journalism, “the smaller the ball the better the writing” Now it pretty much just all sucks. Professional writing is dead for the most part, I used to love getting my Golf Digest, Golf Magazine, Golf Illustrated, my Sports Illustrated, The Sporting News, and reading all the great articles, cover to cover. Now the only thing I subscribe to is this GolfWRX email newsletter, which when I try to open, tries to get me to subscribe every single damn time, even though I have been since 2006.

    It would be nice to see some real professionals on the beat again.

  12. Steve

    May 29, 2019 at 5:28 pm

    Isn’t that the beauty of the PGA, though? ANYONE’s first tee shot on Thursday could lead to a win, and not because some team has a higher salary cap or lets their star player build a super team around him.

  13. Vas

    May 29, 2019 at 5:13 pm

    I almost totally agree, but would have presented it differently. Golf now is basically the same as tennis. Success is all about physicality and hitting the ball as hard as you can. The equipment makes it that way. There was no incentive to looking like a linebacker in 1985 because you would spin the ball off the planet and not break 80. It’s totally okay to prefer serve-and-volley tennis instead of the grunt-fest from the baseline. It’s equally okay to prefer pre-90s skill-emphasized golf instead of guys swinging for the fences with the driver. What’s not okay is to place ANY blame or insult on ANY player. They’re all businessmen. They’re doing what works. If my kids really take to the game, I’m going have them swing as fast as they can and figure out the rest later.

  14. Daniel

    May 29, 2019 at 5:04 pm

    Maybe the problem with not being amazed with pro golf anymore has to do with the tv coverage. When I watch now it seems like all I see are putts. They show all the leaders shots, especially on Sunday in a major when it’s a big name, but not everybody else.

    I like the shot tracers and wish there was more of that. It’s good to see the trajectory of the ball, and not just a close up shot of it flying in the air with nothing but sky around.

  15. JK

    May 29, 2019 at 4:47 pm

    Dustin Johnson has won every year for 12 seasons, something only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus have done.

    Phil Mickelson, who is nearing 50, won already this year and is consistently in the top 25 of tournaments in which he plays.

    What are these dumb claims that no one has maintained performance over the years? Did you not see a guy win back-to-back US Opens followed closely by back-to-back PGA championships?

    Did you forget about just a few years ago when Phil Mickelson was in the final group of the Open Championship, shot 65, and didn’t win?

    Did you miss when someone shot 62 in a major?

    Terrible article

    • Pelling

      May 29, 2019 at 5:43 pm

      Did you not forget Phil chasing after a putt he hit at Shinnecock and slapping the ball while it was moving?

  16. DavidRB

    May 29, 2019 at 4:40 pm

    Couldn’t agree more with Terry. Golf has become boring. Don’t take me wrong, the boring part is because “these guys are good”, precise and boring. I do think the huge purses have caused some to play for the money and not the trophy. Kevin Na played the way one needs to to master Colonial. If you have never been there, try it if you can. It takes precise boring golf to win there.

    Keep it up Terry. The bomb and gouge style of play deserves more accurate wedge play. What I saw last week, the players couln’t get the ball hole-high from 125 or less.

  17. Grumpy Old Man

    May 29, 2019 at 4:29 pm

    “You kids get off my lawn!” – Terry Koehler

    • Shallowface

      May 30, 2019 at 8:06 am

      Beyond Beyond Beyond played.

    • Shallowface

      May 31, 2019 at 1:19 pm

      That is so far beyond played you should be ashamed of yourself.

  18. The dude

    May 29, 2019 at 4:25 pm

    “Dogs that chase cars….and Ben Hogan equipment”

  19. PSG

    May 29, 2019 at 1:20 pm

    The Tour used to be much less top-heavy in terms of prize support. Virtually all the increase in prize money has gone to the top 5 spots. There used to be a 12% gap between number 5 and number 10. Now its about 170%.

    The “best players” used to be guys who would shoot 70 every day. Now you are much better off shooting 65 four straight days and shoot over 80 the rest of the year. That’s why you see the decisions you do – players fire at pins because winning the tournament is much higher rewarded than making the cut.

    You can like it or not like it but to act as if these players are less skilled is asinine. They’re not less skilled, that’s absurd. They are trying to win. In the days you reference the prize money was in being in the top 25 every week. Now it is in winning once a year. Because of this they’re not shooting middle of the green.

    Do you honestly think the players of today woke up and decided to be worse and dumber?! Of course not. They are incentivized to take risks, and they do.

  20. Cody

    May 29, 2019 at 9:44 am

    I would take the current top ten golfers vs. any top ten golfers of any time period.

    • Murv

      May 29, 2019 at 7:26 pm

      Today’s players against 60’s and 70’s players using 60’s equipment and balls. I’ll take the old guys.
      Jason Day said it best. Back in the day they curved the ball around the hazards because they had to. Today they just hit it high, straight over the hazards.

  21. carl spackler

    May 29, 2019 at 9:38 am

    its really too bad we dont have better shot data from the old days. i would love to see the strokes gained stats for the best players from the 60s through the 90s

    i would bet the ball striking was a bit better in the old days, but not as much as people like to think. todays greens are harder, faster and the ball spins less which makes it harder to hold shots on the green

  22. Glass half full

    May 29, 2019 at 7:02 am

    I like watching sports on tv because these athletes can perform at a level I cannot. Colonial isn’t a big tournament in the calendar but still, Kevin Na was impressive. Even if I could the ball as far and straight as a PGA Tour pro, I know that hardly anyone can qualify because….it’s damn hard. I’m not a fan of cynical articles like these, your rant seems petty. These guys ( women ) are very talented.

  23. Shallowface

    May 29, 2019 at 3:26 am

    What I find interesting is how many tour pros say they never watch golf on television. Imagine if we all get up one morning and decide we’re not going to watch anymore. The only reason pro golf exists is because someone wants to watch it. Terry is right. There’s nothing really interesting going on there anymore. The 210 yard 2 iron second into a Par 4. Now that was some good television.

    • golfrank

      May 29, 2019 at 5:56 pm

      Maybe it’s less interesting today because the 210-yard 2-iron has been replaced by a 210-yard 7-iron.

      • Shallowface

        May 30, 2019 at 8:04 am

        Yep, which is entirely due to a ball that doesn’t spin as it used to. Athleticism has NOTHING to do with it.

        It’s never going to happen, but if it were possible to legislate the old balata spin rates into the modern golf ball the game would become interesting to watch again. The ball wouldn’t go as far and more importantly it wouldn’t go as straight. It would be more affected by the wind. All of the challenges that made golf the game it was, but no longer is.

        But that sort of thing falls to the USGA, who only has the authority which it is granted by those who choose to play under its rules. If they were to do such a thing, the PGA Tour would simply say “we are going to play by our rules” and nothing would change.

        The USGA, as irrelevant as it has become, wouldn’t want to be driven into a state of total irrelevance. So they’ll continue to do nothing and like it.

        • Shallowface

          May 31, 2019 at 1:17 pm

          What we need is a ball on the order of the original Spalding Tour Edition, which was a two piece with a urethane cover that spun as much or more that a wound balata ball. That would Make Golf Great Again.

  24. Jack

    May 28, 2019 at 10:03 pm

    Terry is talking about pro golfers like they are a bunch of amateurs, constantly missing greens and trying to get up and down or worse. These guys are really good tee to green, and that includes the long irons. Kevin Na just put together 4 rounds that were 3 of them really good (1 course record). Often pro’s will get 1 record round and puke it up the next. he didn’t. That’s why he won by 4. Give some credit to the winners. Also it’s not like most tournaments are decided by 4 shots and Na is a consistent winner on tour (although he is a tour staple at this point). Na just caught fire and left the field behind.

    I think there’s some old timers bias here. Of course the top old pro’s were very good, but I doubt the middle tier guys were very good either. See? I just said that without any research or proof. The pro’s nowadays need to be very good with their long irons which they need to hit even further, so in many ways they are even more accurate than the guys had to be before. If they don’t score on par 5’s with their long clubs, they need to get hot on par 4’s which isn’t always easy with the par 4’s getting longer and longer. Even par 3’s are like 200 plus yards often. There have been plenty of memorable shots, most recently Koepka’s dominance and DJ almost making it up, and prior to that Tiger showing us some old school shot making.

    Yes the long hitters wedge in, but they are not all hitting it 320. The 290 guys are still hitting mid irons. And if the pro’s of the old days had to hit long irons into par 4’s all the time, they probably didn’t last on tour very long.

    Appreciate your wedge expert articles, but this wasn’t really your best work.

    • The dude

      May 28, 2019 at 11:01 pm

      This reply was too long….way too long

  25. R

    May 28, 2019 at 9:52 pm

    You’re crazy Terry. And really should quit talking or writing. For ever. You’re only making yourself sound a prat, and forget that this stuff stays on the web for ever. For ever. Realize that. It’s going to be readable for ever. It’s not like this stupid writing will be forgotten in some backwoods bookshop in the Middle Ages. Not any more. This is how you will be remembered

  26. Nick

    May 28, 2019 at 8:51 pm

    Terry,
    Ironically, when I read your first article, I thought about the same things are happening in the MLB and NBA. Strikeouts, walks and home runs are at all time highs. You can argue whether that is good or bad.

    The NBA parallels golf even more because the mid-range shot has all but disappeared. Teams now pretty much just shoot 3s and layups or dunks. Thirty years ago, teams averaged 2.2 three point shots per game. This season, that number is up to 11.4. Again, you can argue whether that is good or bad, but it is happening.

    I love reading your stuff, but I think you are missing the mark here. Golf is but one sport following the same trend.

    • Daniel

      May 29, 2019 at 4:58 pm

      I agree 100% Nick.
      To me, golf is not better or worse than it once was, it’s just different.

    • Joseph Greenberg

      May 30, 2019 at 7:24 am

      right on (3) point. bigger picture problem for NBA and MLB is rapidly declining viewership, with baseball suffering major falloff in attendance. If all the fan sees is Ks and HRs, there is no action, particularly if watching on tv. Same to lesser degree with NBA, except my beloved Warriors when they move the ball and themselves around, play D, and run the break.
      The threat to golf is more severe, as aging target market loses relatability to massive young stars.

  27. NBB

    May 28, 2019 at 6:25 pm

    Perhaps via the use of tour data determine the yardage in which to begin progressively narrowing a fairway as it approaches the green and as the fairway narrows, the rough would become progessively more dense toward the green? Perhaps the progressiveness of faiway width and rough density would only slightly favor the longest hitters (given their propensity for missing the fairway at the great distances), but such would favor accuracy for all and enlarge the field of contenders. Perhaps, also, slow the greens down to ‘difficult’ rather than ‘aw, that ain’t right’?

  28. J

    May 28, 2019 at 1:36 pm

    You lost me when you said the NBA consistently amazes you. Regular season games are hard to watch for me. No one gives consistent effort the full game it seems like to me. Boring as hell for me. YMMV as usual

  29. Juststeve

    May 28, 2019 at 12:31 pm

    Terry: You and I agree. I remember when hitting all the clubs, including long irons and fairway wood, was the mark of a great golfer. Now its just smash, pitch and putt. Not nearly as interesting. Perhaps I’ll watch more of the LPGA.

    • Bombers Golf Shop

      May 29, 2019 at 4:50 pm

      Besides, almost every damn amateur male golfer should take notes on how the LPGA players swing. They pick courses’ bones with a smooth, repeatable action. Pound for pound, they are the best.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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