Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: The highest loft you should carry

Published

on

I am starting to get more and more emails from you all, sharing your own personal questions and comments about what I’m writing. Thank you all for doing that and for taking the time to share. I will do my best to answer all of you individually, but realize that as the mailbox gets more and more full, that may be hard to do.

That said, I did get a few emails this past week asking for my thoughts about the highest loft wedge you should carry, so I thought that would make a good topic for today’s post. But first, let me share that I did my first GolfWRX podcast this week, and had a great time doing it. You can listen here.

So, now on to the big question that so many golfers have: What is the highest loft wedge I should carry?

Let me start with a bit of history of putting wedges in our bags, as that might help make sense of the subject for each of you.

After the invention of the sand wedge in the 1930s, a design generally credited to Gene Sarazen, most golfers began to carry one. Did you know that the 1930s was also the decade that witnessed one of the greatest contributions to modern golf clubs, the numbered and matched set of irons? Well, from that time through the 1940s, most golfers relegated that club to only those shots hit from the sand. Most “sand wedges” from that time until the mid-1980s were about 55-56 degrees in loft, but loft was not a specification that many paid much attention to. Sets of irons had a “pitching wedge” of about 50-52 degrees, and that was the more generally used wedge for greenside shots. However, in his 1949 book, “Power Golf,” Ben Hogan wrote that the sand wedge could be a great tool for certain greenside shots.

Through the 1940s, 50s, 60s, 70s, and 80s, most of golf’s biggest stars only carried one “wedge” after their set-match pitching wedge. Many of them used that club to great success, and we witnessed near genius in the likes of Tom Watson, Phil Rogers, Seven Ballesteros and others.

It was the late 1980s, I believe, when Tom Kite began using the first 60-degree wedge to great success. They say he was deadly from his “magic number” — 63 yards, as I remember. I do know those first 60-degree wedges had very large heavy soles, with very pronounced camber from front to back. And they were very difficult to master for most recreational golfers.

Since that time, the higher lofted wedges began to take on more of the look of the traditional sand wedge, and the loft selection was expanded in both directions, with this design applied to wedges as low as 46 degrees and as high as 64. I believe Phil Mickelson gave the lofts over 60 degrees more visibility and curiosity than anyone.

So, with all these choices, what do each of you do with regard to deciding how high to go with the loft of your wedges? The reality is that the answer to that question is different for everyone but let me try to help you make sense of the process.

My observation is that the lofts over about 57-58 degrees are much more challenging to master for most recreational golfers. As loft increases above that level, controlling ball flight and distance becomes more and more difficult. Most golfers just have a hard time making as full a swing as required to move the ball a given distance with these high loft wedges. That said, I have seen recreational golfers that do a great job and use their high-loft wedges to great utility. But that number is very small in my estimation.

The biggest “fail” with the high loft wedges is making contact with the leading edge or very low on the face, either of which imparts much more dynamic force to the ball and sends it screaming over the green into a worse lie than you started with. Right behind that is the tendency to “bail out” on this fuller swing and decelerate before impact, laying the sod over on the ball, and having a similar result.

I do believe that mastering the higher lofted wedges of 60-64 degrees requires a great deal of practice, hitting all kinds of shots from whatever distance you consider “full” to delicate greenside chips and pitches. If you can take the time to do that, then you might turn that high-loft wedge into a powerful scoring tool. But if you don’t…well, my bet is that it will cost you more shots than it saves.

As I’ve already shared, I firmly believe you should select wedges that give you consistent distance differentials on full swings from your set-match 9-iron or “P-club,” all the way down to your 56-58 wedge. For most golfers that differential should be not more than 12-13 yards for optimum scoring. Depending on your strength profile, those loft differences could be as wide as 5-6 degrees, but 4 seems like it works for the vast majority of golfers.

Whether you choose to carry a wedge with a higher loft than that should be left to your own experiences with it, and an honest assessment as to whether that club should have a place in your bag.

Your Reaction?
  • 1244
  • LEGIT228
  • WOW57
  • LOL58
  • IDHT38
  • FLOP87
  • OB36
  • SHANK145

Terry Koehler is a fourth generation Texan and a graduate of Texas A&M University. Over his 40-year career in the golf industry, he has created over 100 putter designs, sets of irons and drivers, and in 2014, he put together the team that reintroduced the Ben Hogan brand to the golf equipment industry. Since the early 2000s, Terry has been a prolific writer, sharing his knowledge as “The Wedge Guy”.   But his most compelling work is in the wedge category. Since he first patented his “Koehler Sole” in the early 1990s, he has been challenging “conventional wisdom” reflected in ‘tour design’ wedges. The performance of his wedge designs have stimulated other companies to move slightly more mass toward the top of the blade in their wedges, but none approach the dramatic design of his Edison Forged wedges, which have been robotically proven to significantly raise the bar for wedge performance. Terry serves as Chairman and Director of Innovation for Edison Golf – check it out at www.EdisonWedges.com.

47 Comments

47 Comments

  1. Pingback: What Is The Loft On A 7 Wood | Golfing Revolution

  2. Lefthack

    Dec 13, 2020 at 10:34 am

    When I decided to refresh my 20 year old bag, I got an AW, a 56 and a 60 thinking I was missing something having only a SW bellow my set matched PW. After getting new irons, I realized I wasn’t using either the AW or the 60 and was doing everything with either the PW or 56.

    It might be due to the fact I used my old SW for anything 20 yards or more off the green. The rest is PW out to 80 yards. But now I have 2 wedges I don’t use.

  3. ChipNRun

    Jan 25, 2020 at 9:40 am

    PGA tour stats validate Terry’s comment on 57*-58* being upper limit on what most amateur golfers can handle. On tour, half the golfers have 58* as their highest lofted wedge.

    When I redid my wedges two seasons back, I went with Callaway MD3 in 48* and 54* and an MD-PM in a high-toe 60*/10.

    The 60* was good for certain greenside shots, but I had distance control problems and it was iffy for anything more than a half swing. It did NOT work out of junk lies – 54* much better.

    An MD4 58*/8 C-grind has replaced the 60*. MD4 much easier to control on distance, and just overall easier to use. Took me about 10 shots to get used to it.

    My brother, however, is a different story. I gave him a brand X 60* that was a golf clinic give-away, and he does magic tricks with the thing. (He does limit it to half swings). Whatever works!

  4. joro

    Jun 20, 2019 at 9:25 am

    I looked at a 64 the other day and it looked like the Ball would come straight up hit he in my Juevos. No Thanks, 58 is just fight.

  5. Christopher Hansen

    Jun 12, 2019 at 5:45 pm

    5 index. I have carried a 4-wedge setup for years. 45, 52, 56, 60. Why? Because I get predictable coverage at all distances inside of 140 yds. I can open up the 60 to flop or for delicate bunker shots.

    My favorite wedge of all time has to be the SM5 64 from Titelist. Sadly, they don’t make them anymore (but I still have one, heavily used). A 64 imparts big spin, and you can get balls to stop on a dime if executed properly. Very handy for sand, delicate greenside chips, and tight pin placements over hazards with very little green to work with. I only stopped carrying my 64 because it was so worn its grooves looked a bit questionable. I never picked up the Mac Daddy 64 when it came out. I’ve generally avoided Callaway as a brand (although I’m sure there’s no *real* difference for most people). Call me a wedge snob, but Vokey’s are still king.

    I’d love to see the 64 made in a Taylor Made wedge (or bring back the Titelist model).

    • Bob vokey

      Dec 6, 2019 at 9:50 pm

      Wedge snob and wrong. Look at any flight monitor and Vokey is king in name only.

  6. Distance Compression Dude

    Jun 9, 2019 at 3:46 pm

    90 degrees.

  7. James T

    May 25, 2019 at 7:26 pm

    “…we witnessed near genius in the likes of Tom Watson, Phil Rogers, Seven Ballesteros and others.”

    Terry… I’m glad your word correction program fixed it for you. Just a bit surprised it didn’t change it to Seven Ball and Stereos!

  8. Wally

    May 24, 2019 at 11:57 am

    I have a 60* and an old TM 64* wedge but I don’t carry them because I’m so inconsistent with them. You almost have to have the perfect lie to hit those clubs and at the courses that I play, very seldom do I get the manicured grass needed to hit those clubs. The highest lofted club that I carry is a 58* Ping Stealth or Cleveland RTX4 and even then I don’t take full swings with them.

  9. ChipNRun

    May 22, 2019 at 11:58 am

    Terry K. said…

    “My observation is that the lofts over about 57-58 degrees are much more challenging to master for most recreational golfers.”

    A couple of years ago, Golf Digest reported that half the male tour pros use a 58* as their highest-lofted wedge.

    As for pre-1980s role of SW, I would differ with Terry. Lots of players – including me – used a SW for greenside cut shots long before the LW arrived. First-cut lie = PW, shaggy lie = SW.

    Also, golf-ball designer Dean Snell has another angle on wedge problems of mid-HDCP golfers: harder distance balls. Dean suggests that a urethane ball will grab the clubface better on higher-lofted clubs such as wedges, and give better spin and control to ALL golfer.

    I carry a 48-54-60, mainly because I found a 60* I could hit. Big distance control problems with earlier 60* adventures.

    Also, many golfers only hit partial shots with SW and LW, as per Juststeve.

  10. G

    May 21, 2019 at 2:51 pm

    I remember the year G Mac won the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach. The lowest wedge in his bag was a 56*. Spoke with him during the Wednesday practice round and asked him why only one sand wedge. he said because it’s his best club for that course!

  11. slash

    May 20, 2019 at 8:38 pm

    46* is the squish club for an 85% shot that the 54* can’t be relied upon for a full swing
    54* is for long bunker and squishable 60* shots
    60* is for a rare full swing, bunkers, lobs (long and short) as well as big rough

  12. Howard Clark

    May 20, 2019 at 8:32 am

    I am scratch but, having said that, I can atke anyone’s 56, fan it open going back, and turn it into a 64.

    • Steve O

      May 29, 2019 at 6:02 am

      I’m a 3 and if I fan it open I can get the shanks. So I carry the loft that requires no adjustments, just as I do with my other irons.

    • Hank Hill

      Dec 6, 2019 at 9:52 pm

      I’m sure you can, Boomer.

  13. Frank

    May 19, 2019 at 5:49 pm

    Play in a real pro tournament and all those short side misses with the real tucked pins will 100% convince you to carry a 64 degree wedge, there’s a reason both DJ and Phil carry 64 degree wedges and it’s absolutely for those short shots with no green to work with.

    • Tiger Noods

      Jun 24, 2019 at 5:36 am

      Play as much as a pro, and you too can play any loft your heart desires.

  14. Sp4cetime

    May 19, 2019 at 4:28 pm

    In your podcast you suggest that forged tour wedges are a detriment to your average golfer. What do you suggest as an alternative?

    • Andrew

      May 21, 2019 at 6:38 pm

      Cleveland CBX. I have the 52, 56, and 60 degree.

  15. Phillip Pearson

    May 18, 2019 at 3:14 pm

    I love my 62* wedge. Yes it took practice BUT when you learn it , it’s a great club. From 65 yards in I can get it close most of the time. If you go out and practice the high lofted wedge at the practice range I think you will learn to love that high lofted wedge

    • Zach Bartness

      May 19, 2019 at 2:12 pm

      What’s your wedge setup with the 62*?

  16. Geoffrey Holland

    May 18, 2019 at 3:43 am

    “It was the late 1980s, I believe, when Tom Kite began using the first 60-degree wedge to great success.”

    Actually he started playing a lob wedge in 1980. Quite a big difference from your completely incorrect anecdotal evidence.

    I bought my first 60 degree wedge not long after Tom Watson won the US open in 1982 and Ram released the wedge series with his name on them. I’ve carried a Ram Tom Watson 60 degree wedge in my bag for probably 95% of the rounds I’ve ever played in my life.

  17. JG

    May 15, 2019 at 9:25 am

    The gapping and the sole is the most important in my estimation. I have rolled with setups like 50/55/60 and I currently game 50/54/58. If your scoring wedges aren’t properly dialed in correctly what’s the point. You just eliminated your ability to score…

  18. James

    May 15, 2019 at 9:12 am

    No one going to pick up on the seven Ballesteros’ in the list of great names?

  19. JThunder

    May 15, 2019 at 1:58 am

    “The highest loft you should carry” is like saying “the largest size shoes you should wear”. People are individuals. The corporate world and the internet desperately wish they were not, so it would be easier to make profits by selling everyone the same thing. This includes advice.

    If you want to know “the highest loft”, either work with a pro you trust who knows your swing and game, or find out for yourself. You can carry 14 clubs according to the rules. Generic advice won’t get you any further than what you already know, unless you’re new to the game.

  20. TD

    May 15, 2019 at 12:41 am

    I have a Ping G25 PW(45°) UW(50°) and a Vokey SM6 56°/M-8 and that’s all i ever need

  21. CG

    May 14, 2019 at 5:13 pm

    I like a 60* wedge with low bounce and wide flange. It’s my go to club around the greens. I honestly don’t see how people get by without a lob wedge. I watch them hit chips that run out too far and think, why? Learn to use a lob wedge!

    • JG

      May 15, 2019 at 9:22 am

      Because an average golfer (practice or plays once a week) who knows how to chip properly will see far lower scores than if they attempt to master a 60. Learning how to chip is just proper setup and making a putting stroke. Mastering a 60 takes practice and touch which the average once a week player doesn’t have at their disposal.

      • Boris Yeltsin

        Dec 6, 2019 at 9:55 pm

        Learning how to chip is the same with any club. Making the same stroke with different clubs is how you control distance. Good try.

      • Buckeye Doug

        Jan 3, 2020 at 4:41 pm

        Agreed a weekend duffer has a difficult time adjusting to a 60*. I used to play 52/56, now I play 52/56/60, i am not sure it has changed my score, but have several shots on my courses which are pitches between 10-30 yards

  22. JP

    May 14, 2019 at 4:35 pm

    Phil has been doing it wrong!

  23. Thomas Prosserr

    May 14, 2019 at 3:06 pm

    48pw a 56sw an a 60lw covers it all. Feel is the most important aspect of it. If it feels good do it. Me an my buds arent good enough to say you gota hit a certain club from a particular yardage an we all shoot about 10hdcp. yrstlawy in pa

  24. Nanananana

    May 14, 2019 at 3:04 pm

    Nobody will take away my 64 degree bent to 67 away from me. It does wonders around tight lies and checks the ball like it has a string attached

    • 3puttPar

      May 29, 2019 at 12:55 pm

      Sounds like you need to hit more GIR’s.

  25. Rich Douglas

    May 14, 2019 at 2:45 pm

    I play Wishon Sterling single-length irons. My set is 4-iron through lob wedge (60 degrees).

    I started out playing traditional SW and LW, but those clubs began to feel funny. I added the Wishon versions–which are the length of an 8-iron and struggled with them at first. Some back-and-forth ensued, but I stuck with the SW first, then the LW. I’m not interested in going back.

    I play a course that’s short and all the greens are Donald Ross-style pop-ups; small and elevated. Almost every approach shot is hit with a wedge, and all shots around the green have to be hit high and soft or they won’t stay. Sure, you can try to run them up the slopes, but that’s a guessing game. I have no trouble anymore hitting lob shots with my LW opened way up. The swing is a little flatter, but it’s not a problem.

    But the best part of these wedges is hitting them from the fairway. It’s nice to use the same swing planes (back and down) I use with all my other wedges. That was the point of going to single-length clubs; the SW and LW complete the experiment. I’m never going back!

  26. Pete

    May 14, 2019 at 2:02 pm

    Funny, the 60′ is one of the few clubs I goet a consistent distance with full swing. Handy 18

  27. Scratchscorer

    May 14, 2019 at 1:46 pm

    If the bounce and lie angle are a good match then I see no problem with 60 degrees. It’s all about getting those two things right and then finding the lofts that fit your eye and give you the ball flight you expect from your shots.

  28. PSG

    May 14, 2019 at 1:26 pm

    Right. So “in your estimation” you “have seen a lot” of high handicappers that are not good with high lofted wedges.

    It is the exhaustive research and hard-hitting data that makes this article so good.

    I’ll save everyone else some time: “I think 57-58 is too much, because I can see the loft on the wedge watching most people hit. So, eh, have good gaps I guess. Who knows. This changes if you practice some.”

  29. RudyV

    May 14, 2019 at 1:23 pm

    I’m 62 and I never carried anything more than my Pitching wedge until about 15 years ago…my PW has a loft of 46 degrees so my next wedge is 50 then 54…I find it very difficult, for myself, to hit a loft larger than that consistently but I do almost always take a full swing with my wedges…I’m not as long as I used to be but I do find it advantageous on wedge shots to try and take full swings…as I said, that works for me…then again if I can’t get to the green on my second shot I will put myself as close to 100 yards out as I can…for me, that’s my 50 degree at a full swing

  30. Dayunski

    May 14, 2019 at 10:57 am

    I’m a 12. I use 50, 54 and 58. My benchmark distances for regular full swings are 100, 85 and 70. I practice 3/4 and 2/3 swings. In theory, I have a swing in 5 yard increments from 60-105 yards. The wedge I use also depends on how I want to land the ball and how much green to work with. Works for me 70% of the time.

  31. ~j~

    May 14, 2019 at 10:44 am

    when first swinging a club around age 16-17, I had an old dunlop 64* I used to mess around with in a park beside my house, walk out at anytime with a few cold beers and spend an hour + just hitting it back and forth to things (had 100y or so of ample space).

    I wouldn’t touch a 64* now, but I bank on my 60* Vokey from 105y and in every round. I wouldn’t recommend it to my golfing peers but I’ve always been able to scale the 60* to whatever distance needed, and it sticks like a dart.

    I’ve hear the arguments against it, things like one could lay a 56* open and have the same effect. True, but I’d rather take a full swing with a squared club than one that’s held wide open.

    My 2 wedges I carry are 50-08* and 60-04*. 60* gets me up to 105y max, and a 75% 50* gets me from 100y up to 130 comfortably before my PW takes over. Just enough space between wedges to allow a choice, but anything within 100y is normally my 60-04* vokey, unless I need a little more bounce.

    • Christian Larsson

      May 22, 2019 at 2:29 am

      You had a habit of drinking a few beers….at 16 years of age?

    • Gene Seretore

      Dec 9, 2019 at 12:58 pm

      Upon further review, this comment has been flagged as fake news.

  32. Juststeve

    May 14, 2019 at 10:23 am

    Consistent full swing distance gaps, 12-13 yards is of little significance to me since it is very seldom I make a full swing with any of my “distance wedges”. I carry a 50, a 54, and a 58, but, inside about 80 yards I will most likely be making a partial swing with any of my wedges depending on the trajectory I want and how I want the ball to act after it lands. Full swing carry distances are irrelevant to me.

    • Alex Corona

      May 14, 2019 at 11:11 am

      So you don’t hit full swing wedges? what do you hit at 135yrds pin but carry 132 yrds? Full swing wedges matter as well as charting partial swing wedges. Both are valuable but saying full carry distances are irrelevant doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

      • Juststeve

        May 14, 2019 at 12:24 pm

        From 135 I hit a nine iron, in real life, on the internet it’s a little sand wedge.

        It’s not that I never hit a stock wedge, but it’s seldom I find myself on the number just to hit a full wedge. Much more often I am inside the full wedge range for any of my wedges trying to figure out how to best get the ball close to the hole. In that large majority of cases how far I hit the club with a full swing has very little to do with the club I choose. I’m not going to make a full swing with any of the wedges.

Leave a Reply

Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

Published

on

As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

Your Reaction?
  • 13
  • LEGIT1
  • WOW1
  • LOL0
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP0
  • OB0
  • SHANK1

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

Published

on

B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

Your Reaction?
  • 14
  • LEGIT4
  • WOW1
  • LOL2
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB0
  • SHANK11

Continue Reading

19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

on

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

Your Reaction?
  • 16
  • LEGIT3
  • WOW2
  • LOL1
  • IDHT0
  • FLOP1
  • OB2
  • SHANK6

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending