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Breaking down the top 10 contenders for the Masters (No. 5-1)

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With less than a week now to go until the first major of the year kicks off, it’s time to take a closer look at some of the leading contenders for the Masters. Taking course history, current form and the necessary skill sets into account, here are my top-10 power rankings. In case you missed it, here are those who filled positions 10-6.

5. Tiger Woods (14/1)

Can Tiger put it all together to capture his first green jacket in 14 years? The 43-year-old, while not setting the world on fire in terms of results in 2019, is heading to Augusta giving off the signs that he is ready to peak at just the right time. Woods has played his way out of contention at Augusta over recent years with his play off the tee. The American stands 67th this season for strokes gained: off the tee, which may not sound exceptional, but it’s the highest he’s stood in this department since 2012.

With his tee game looking solid, Woods possesses all the weapons to claim his 15th major, with the four-time Masters winner sitting T2 for Ball Striking in 2019. However, the caveat is that surprisingly Woods, who is the greatest iron player of his generation, has all of a sudden begun to struggle with his approach play. The 80-time winner on the PGA Tour produced his worst display with his irons post-2011 at the Players, and also struggled with his approaches at the WGC-Match Play. Before the Players, Woods led the field for strokes gained: approaching the green at the WGC-Mexico, so the current drop off in form in this area is hard to explain. If Woods can get back to that level of confidence with his irons by next week, then he has his best chance since 2013 of slipping on the green jacket.

4.  Justin Rose (14/1)

After agonizingly losing out in a playoff to Sergio Garcia in 2017, Justin Rose is still without a green jacket, and considering his course form at Augusta a win surely can’t be too far away. A regular fixture on the leaderboard, the Englishman has recorded five consecutive top-15 finishes at the event, and ominously sits in the top-25 in all significant strokes gained categories over his previous 24 rounds.

An elite ball-striker, you can almost bank on Rose’s long game being in fine fettle for the test at Augusta National. The fact that the course suits the 2013 US Open champion’s eye just makes his supreme level of play in that department even more dangerous. The issue with Rose at these big events usually comes down to his performance on the greens, and in 2019, Rose has looked sharp in this area. Rose sits T33 in strokes gained: putting for this season and heads to Augusta having gained strokes on the greens in three of his last four events. Putting confidently, Rose is sure to be in contention.

3. Rickie Fowler (20/1)

False dawn after false dawn has created even more pressure on Rickie Fowler to land a major championship, but at last year’s Masters, the American exercised plenty of demons. Fowler shot 67 at the Masters on Sunday of last year, and a clutch birdie at the last to heap the pressure on the eventual champion, Patrick Reed, proved to everyone that Fowler could handle the pressure. Fowler is currently in the thick of it at the Valero Texas Open where his game looks sharp after suffering a little cooling off period after winning in Phoenix and then finishing runner-up at the Honda Classic.

What Fowler did at the Phoenix Open is something that I feel gives him an advantage over the rest of the field. The 30-year-old, even amid chaos on that Sunday, put the tournament out of everyone’s reach with his dominant putting. Fowler gained 9.5 strokes over the field that week for strokes gained: putting, and of the dozen or so players that will truly believe they can win the Masters, Fowler is the one who can produce those numbers with the flat-stick. We’ve seen outrageously good putting performances in recent years at Augusta, from Spieth in 2015 to Reed last year, and Fowler possesses the stroke and calmness with the flat-stick to deliver a knockout performance and finally land that elusive major championship next week.

2. Rory McIlroy (7/1)

This season, Rory McIlroy has been sensational, finishing no worse than T6 in six stroke-play events, and closing out the Players Championship in spectacular style. The Ulsterman has been dominant off the tee, and his approach play has been excellent too. Over his previous 12 rounds, McIlroy sits first for strokes gained: off the tee, tee to green and ball striking, and seventh for strokes gained: approaching the green. The only question is, can the 29-year-old keep his cool with the whole world watching, and for the most part, expecting him to complete his grand slam dream?

As we all know by now, McIlroy melted under pressure as a 21-year-old at the 2011 Masters. Eight years on, and four major championship victories later, the Ulsterman is still in search of redemption at Augusta National to complete the set. Five successive top-10 finishes at the tournament show that he has more than got to grips with the place, and is ready to create history. His performance in the final group on Sunday of the event last year may have brought up some demons, where he semi-shanked his opening tee shot and failed to lay down any challenge to Patrick Reed. McIlroy, however, is a much better player than he was 12 months ago, and if he can somehow free himself from the burden of pressure and expectancy that is on him, then he may well be joining an elite group of players next week.

1.  Dustin Johnson (10/1)

With three top-10 finishes and one win from his last four stroke play events, Dustin Johnson is in the envious position of being in top-form while being out of the Masters spotlight. Despite not winning a green jacket yet, Johnson doesn’t have the scar tissue at the event which Rory McIlroy does, and with the 34-year-old merely looking for his second major win as opposed to grand slam glory, Johnson has escaped all attention and comes to Augusta almost under the radar.

In 2017 it was very different for the American, who came to Augusta in excellent form, winning event after event, with the entire world expecting him to dominate at that year’s Masters event. An accident on his rented house stairs that week put paid to his tournament, and last month Johnson described his recent play as being the closest to the form he displayed prior to that year’s championship since. Three consecutive top-10 finishes at Augusta National shows that it’s a track which Johnson has warmed to and all parts of his game are razor sharp as he bids to claim his first green jacket. Over his previous 12 rounds, Johnson leads next week’s field in strokes gained: total and approaching the green, and is second in ball striking and fourth in putting. With his game in exceptional shape and without the immense pressure which his main competitors are under, Johnson has everything in his favour in order to win the 2019 Masters.

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Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at [email protected].

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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