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Redkacheek’s DFS Rundown: 2018 Safeway Open

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The beginning of the 2018-2019 season is already upon us…basically a two-week break! The good news is most casual fans have completely shifted their focus to the NFL which means we should see “softer” competition during the Fall Swing. Another note during the Fall Swing, you will see a lot of names you are not familiar with due to rookies from the Web.com Tour getting their careers started early, but don’t let them fool you! There are some extremely talented players that have far more upside than guys like Charles Howell III or Chez Reavie and they should be mostly under-the-radar.

Before we get into my core plays, let’s take a look at the course and what the players will be facing. The 2018 Safeway Open, formerly the Frys.com Open, will be held at Silverado Resort and Spa North in Napa, Calif. Historically one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour every year, the winning score has exceeded 15-under par each of the past three seasons. The Silverado Resort North course tips out just shy of 7,200 yards (7,166) and plays to a par of 72. Although it may be difficult to statistically dig into the entire field with so many rookies on Tour playing in their first event, birdies-or-better (BoB) will certainly be a key stat this week.

Let’s take what we now know about scoring and step back to take a bigger picture of the course. Looking at accuracy numbers from last year, these were some of the easiest greens to hit on Tour with last year’s GIR number coming in at 66.82 percent — yet diving accuracy was one of the worst at only 50.25 percent. That is a red flag to me and immediately removes any notion to include driving accuracy in my model. Why is that? Essentially this data tells us there is no real premium on hitting the fairway because these numbers are not correlated.

To expand upon this further, the average driving distance here last year was pretty significant, averaging 299.4 yards. Strictly from a stat-based appearance, without looking at the course photos, this is a bomber’s paradise as far as hitting lots of drivers and not paying the price if fairways are missed. Perhaps adding driving distance to your model or your player research is not a bad idea this week. The numbers certainly show that bombers will have an advantage.

The last thing I will touch on is the green complexes, and more importantly, putting. These greens are somewhat complex (no pun intended), which is where much of the bite comes in and why we do not see sub-20 under winning every year. I would not suggest weighing putting however, as 3-putt avoidance, one-putt percentage and overall putting average are all middle of the pack for PGA Tour difficulty. Guys should be hitting a lot of greens and whoever can get the putter going will fair very well. If you are still on the “putting is the key to golf” bandwagon (which is technically true just not for DFS), taking a look at longer term putting splits inside of 10 feet may prove beneficial, as that range ranked second most difficult on Tour last year.

With all that out of the way, let’s get into my core plays for this week.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,600)

Patrick Cantlay at $11.6k is really borderline for me, but if I had to pick out anyone in this field to rely on, it would be him. He can certainly pay off the price tag but rostering him is for one of two things: 1. You are playing cash and need a solid building block, or 2. You think he is a class above the rest of this field and should certainly finish in the top five. Statistically this course grades out as his type of course, as he ranks third SG:T2G, seventh SG:OTT and fifth in DK points. He is surprisingly long, so I think that adds to his appeal. I certainly do not see Patrick Cantlay “breaking the slate” this weekend in one way or another but as far as a core play, I think he is worth the spend.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $10,000)

I am severely torn between Grillo and Niemann, but Grillo grades out better for me mainly due to his course history (Niemann has none). Grillo has played here three times and has a win and two top-28 finishes under his belt. Again, 10K requires a top finish to pay off, but I like Grillo’s chances of adding a second victory here this week. He had a really rough stretch during the middle of this past season but started to come into form really well leading into the Fedex Cup Playoffs. He rates out in the top 15 of all the major stat categories I am looking at this week, including fourth in SG:Putting which could actually be a big difference maker on these greens.

Sang-Moon Bae (DK $8,400)

After those 10k and up guys, I am not in love with many. I think Brendan Steele is in the conversation for a core play but hard to know which Brendan Steele shows up. The one I am most interested in going into the $8k range is Sang-Moon Bae, and from what I am seeing he should be somewhat under-owned. Sang-Moon won this event back in 2015 but then had to leave the United States to fulfill his military obligation in Korea. Well since his return last season, he has really underperformed…until about five weeks ago! To finish off his season, he had to go to the Web.com Tour to try to regain status. Well, he is back on Tour this year due to this incredible stretch of golf. Beginning at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship, Sang-Moon finished T35, T6, and then 1st. Keep in mind this last event was only three weeks ago so still very relevant form. I am taking that Web.com form mixed with his course history here and putting him in a lot of my lineups this week.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,600)

Chez does not fit the bomber profile but he does like this course. As I mentioned on the FGB Podcast, Chez has finished T17, T22, T13 the past 3 years and overall just seems to play the Fall Swing really well year in and year out. That part is hard to explain, but I do know that the form he takes into this event never seems to matter. He is one of the highest ranked putters on Tour so this is probably what offsets his driving distance. At 7,600 Chez is one of the few mispriced Tour veterans in this field that we can count on.

Sungjae Im (DK $7,000)

This one here is really exciting, but sadly he probably won’t be under-the-radar. Sungjae just came of a historic season on the Web.com Tour where he won twice and finished 2nd three times! His last few events to finish the season were 1st, T51, T16, and T43 finishes, so I would certainly say his form has not diminished. He played in two majors this year, the U.S. Open where he MCdd (so did Tiger, Rory, Jason Day, Speith, etc.) and the PGA Championship, where he finished 42nd. He ranked 23rd in driving accuracy, 21st in GIR% and 17th in putting average. This kid is good, and I want to be sure to have plenty of exposure early in the season when he is essentially playing against Web.com guys anyways.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,800)

Tyler is another player, like Chez, that doesn’t fit the bomber narrative but has just been so solid for the last year. He had a stretch earlier this year where he made 11 cuts in a row. ELEVEN! That is really strong. He did play here last year and finished fifth, so his price just doesn’t make sense. I will gladly add Tyler to my Cash and GPP pool, take the savings and count on a made cut and another potential Top 10. To put the cherry on top, Tyler ranks seventh in SG:T2G and fourth in SG:APP. His numbers and course history look really good so I just don’t understand why he is priced down under 7K.

Also consider…

Ryan Moore
Joaquin Niemann
Denny McCarthy
Brendan Steele
Harold Varner III
Sam Ryder
Curtis Luck
Joel Dahmen

Good luck this week everyone!

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I am ranked in the Top 35 of all DFS Golf players and best known for winning the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest during the week of The Masters earlier this year. I am very active around the community, always willing to help whether with strategy or research and you can find me on Twitter @Redkacheek and also each week on the Fantasy Golf Bag Podcast. One last note, my history is in professional golf, which definitely adds a unique perspective to DFS that most people do not have and you will find really gives you an edge when evaluating players each week.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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