Opinion & Analysis

Stop making excuses: 5 cost-efficient ways to start golfing (and improve)

Published

6 years ago

Aug 22, 2018

Andrew Tursky

“I want to start playing golf, but it’s too expensive.”
“I never get any better at golf, and it’s too expensive to improve.”
“I can’t afford new clubs or a golf membership, so I can’t possibly get better.”

Please stop saying these things, because for 99 percent of people, they’re simply not true.

The vast majority of Americans have enough money to be able to purchase one used putter, one used sand wedge, one used 7 iron, and one used golf ball. That’s all you need to start playing golf… and not just start playing, you can actually get really good at golf with just three clubs and a golf ball. If you have exactly zero extra money, then sell a few things on eBay to support your initial golf club purchase. If you have nothing to sell, go to a local garage sale and purchase something for a deal, then flip it on eBay. Or better yet, find golf clubs at a garage sale! If you simply can’t come up with any money at all, and you can’t find a friend or relative who has old clubs you can borrow, get to your local golf course and I bet they’ll give you a few clubs for free out of the lost and found. If you want to play golf, or you want to get better at golf, there are plenty of ways to do it for cheap and/or free!

And if you can afford to purchase a Starbucks coffee in the morning, pay cover at a nightclub on Fridays, or have enough to eat out at restaurants (not during happy hour) then you have enough to play golf!

As you may already know, I’m the editor of GolfWRX. In May, I switched from playing golf righty for my entire life, to playing lefty. Why? Because of a back injury… and the challenge to break 100. Since I switched to south paw three months ago, I’ve not only broken 100, but I broke 90 and 85. My low score so far is an 83 (on a relatively easy course: 68.8, 115). Do you know how much money I’ve spent on golf since I switched? According to all my bank account transactions over that time period, I’ve spent $908. That’s including my full set of clubs, range sessions, all rounds of golf, lead tape for my slice, golf gloves, and other equipment. And you know what? I’ve overspent. I’ve played rounds of golf I didn’t need to play, bought buckets of balls I didn’t need to and spent too much on golf clubs. The reality is that I could have easily spent way less.

Golf can be as expensive as you want it to be. You can spend $50k on a membership, $10k on golf trips, $10k on a set of clubs, and $500 or more per golf outfit. Or, you can hit TJ Maxx or a thrift shop for collared shirts if you need them, and follow my guide below to learn how to play golf for cheap.

Full disclosure: Yes, I get golf balls for free (perks of the job) and had obviously already had golf apparel from throughout my career. For video footage, I received a free club fitting from Club Champion (the fitting was free, not the used golf clubs I bought), and a free full swing analysis from Urban Golf Performance.

1) Used golf clubs

This is the number one barrier to entry into the sport of golf, in my opinion. An all-too-common misconception is that you need to spend $500 on a driver, $1000 on irons, $300 on wedges, and of course, at least $200 on a putter. This is so wrong that it hurts my soul — and I’m a journalist, who don’t even have souls.

If you’re a beginning golfer who’s never played the game, head to your nearest big box store (Golf Galaxy, Dicks, etc) or a used golf store (do a quick google search in your area) and pick out the cheapest putter, wedge and 7 iron you can find. Or, head to a local golf course and check out the lost and found; they will either sell you a club for $5, or often, they’ll just give it to you for free. You do not need a driver or a fairway wood or a hybrid or a full set of irons. We’re simply learning the game right now — how to make contact, get the ball airborne, what it means to swing a golf club, etc. A beginning artist doesn’t need to buy expensive paint brushes and fancy tools; just get a cheap paint brush and some paints and start experimenting.

If you’re someone who sort of knows how to play golf already, or you’ve played a few times and want to have a full set, used golf clubs are a great option. Search eBay, rockbottomgolf, TGW, local used shops or the other many options online for a set of golf clubs. Technology that goes back as far as 10 years is all you need; and the bigger the better when it comes to irons and wedges. You want big soles and big toplines (ask customer service for game-improvement wedges and irons)… these will offer you the most forgiveness and help you achieve more height and distance on your golf shots. Also, invest in a bunch of used golf balls; there are plenty of online options, or spend $10 at a local golf course scouring the used golf ball bin. You don’t need premium $50-a-dozen golf balls. You can even buy foam or plastic golf balls to hit in your house, apartment or backyard.

Here’s are the clubs I bought for my lefty set, and it cost me only $430!

2) Short game practice area

When you’re starting out, short game practice should make up 100 percent of your time and effort. At first, don’t even go to a range or a golf course. Putt on a carpet in your living room while watching golf on TV. Try to mimic the tempo, grip, and look of the strokes you see (don’t watch Adam Scott, though). Set up a solo cup or a shoe as your target. If you have a carpet, or a small backyard, you can start chipping using your wedge, too. Work on hitting down and through the ball. Remember, swing down and hit the ground to get the ball to pop up. Golf is a game of opposites.

After you’re comfortable and ready to head to a real green, seek out a local short game area. Most golf courses have a putting green that allows you to chip and putt. The best part? They typically don’t charge for the use of this area!! My local muni has both a chipping green and a putting green; this is where I spent 95 percent of my time practicing during the first few weeks I switched to lefty. Learn how to get the ball airborne on chip shots, how to simply hit the green every time from a variety of lies, how to not three putt from twenty feet, and how to make those 3 foot putts. These are crucial skills to learn, and they will provide you the fundamentals for when you hit the range and take your first full swings on a range.

Again, this is completely free.

3) The range

Once you get your short game and putting to the point where you’re comfortable, it’s time to hit the range for the next few weeks. Yes, many public ranges give you only 30 balls for 5 bucks, or 80 for $10, BUT, most local ranges also have range membership deals, or some cash-saving deal where you get more range balls or tokens for your money. Invest in that deal. Take advantage of what they’re offering, because you’re going to be grinding day-in and day-out at this range. If it’s 100 bucks for 12 jumbo tokens instead of getting only 10 for full retail, do that! This is where you’re going to make yourself into a real golfer, and for WAY cheaper than playing golf everyday at a real course. If you can get an unlimited range membership? Even better! Capitalize on any range deal you can find. If you’re lucky enough to have a local golf course that has a free hitting mat and a net (yes, these do exist), then you’re in luck. You just found a free range and saved yourself hundreds of dollars.

Now, what are we going to do at the range… bang drivers? NO. For the first week or two at the range, really we only need a wedge and a seven iron. Spend your entire jumbo bucket hitting wedges and seven irons, teaching yourself how to hit the ball and get it in the air. You already know that hitting down on the ball is the most effective way to get the ball into the air, because you’ve been practicing that technique over and over and over again at the short game area for the past two weeks. And you’ve developed some great hand-eye coordination in that time as well. Now, we’re just lengthening the swing and teaching our bodies how to react at a faster pace. It’s all about getting the ball into the air consistently and teaching ourselves the golf motion, which will feel very weird at first, but your body will adjust.

Many golfers and people in the golf industry will tell you that you need to get lessons before even bothering going to the range. I disagree, for most cases. Give yourself a chance to develop the proper hand-eye coordination necessary to play golf by yourself before muddying your thoughts with professional advice. The human body and brain is smart… it will take only a few dozen times topping the ball or completely whiffing for you to start to self correct. You just need to give yourself the freedom to learn on your own and experiment.

Remember: Hit down on the ball for it to pop up!

When you start being able to get the ball in the air every time, then and only then is it time to start experimenting with a driver. But, you don’t even need to learn how to hit a driver before heading to the golf course…

4) Executive/Par 3 courses

Full-length 18-hole golf courses are not the only way to play golf, improve, and have a good time playing the sport. Actually, in my opinion, they’re not even the best option.

Chances are, there’s an executive course (consisting of mostly par 3s, but also par 4s or even par 5s), or a pitch-n-putt course (mostly short par-3s) nearby where you live. The chances are also high that playing the course will run you less than $20, and probably more like $8-10.

These courses will give you the opportunity to play real golf against a set par, but you won’t have to deal with the long time commitment, pressure of impatient golfers, or the large cost to play a full 18 holes at a course. Playing an executive or pitch-n-putt course over and over again will allow you to get comfortable actually playing the sport of golf; hitting tee shots, trying to save bogey or par, holing out under pressure for a score, walking a golf course, figuring out yardages, basic etiquette and pace of play.

I’ve told this story on the Two Guys Talking Golf podcast, but when I was growing up, my dad refused to allow me to play golf on a full 18 hole course until I beat him (he’d give me a stroke per hole) on our local pitch n putt course. It took me several rounds and lots of heartbreak to beat him, but once I did, I was fully prepared to play on a real course because I had so much practice playing golf already. You should do this too as a beginner.

5) Twilight golf

So, it’s finally time to go play a full 18 holes for the first time. But, you start checking out the course rates online and the weekend prices are absurd. “Fifty bucks just to play golf? Who can afford that?!” you may be thinking. And you know what, I agree. Golf is ridiculously expensive… but it doesn’t have to be!

Twilight golf is the greatest thing ever for broke golfers who want to improve. Almost every course I’ve ever been to has a twilight rate during the weekdays.

Here’s how it works: If you tee off after a certain time, say 5pm or 6pm, you get a wildly reduced rate than if you play during the day. Sometimes the twilight rate can be half the daily rate, or even less. Yes, it’s named twilight for a reason; because at some point during your round the sun will set. But that’s fine, because there’s several advantages…

If you play quickly, you can still get in 18 holes. And you didn’t have to pay the full price for it.
Often, there aren’t many other twilight golfers out there. You essentially have the course to yourself. Want to hit a few extra chip shots or tee shots for practice? Fire away. Sometimes, I’ll even play two balls per hole. While the USGA doesn’t recognize it as a real round if you’re taking practice shots or playing more than one ball, it doesn’t really matter. The goal is to get better at golf for cheap, and what better way to do that than on an actual 18 hole golf course, for a reduced rate?
In the summer, you aren’t getting the worst of the midday or morning heat.
You can play after work or school. You don’t have to take a day off, or even leave early from work, and you do’t have to take up your entire weekend day. Leave work at your normal 5pm time, get to the course by 530, play until dark at 8:30pm, then get some dinner and have plenty of time to relax or enjoy family time before bed.

So, buy/acquire used clubs, go to the free short game area or range for a few weeks to a month, then start playing executive or pitch-n-putt courses until you’re comfortable. Then, play some twilight golf! After a couple months, reward yourself for all of the money saved and improvements made, and make a weekend tee time at a course in your area that you want to play with some of your friends who golf. They’ll be shocked that you just started playing a few months ago and can already beat them. What they won’t know is that you spent next to nothing to do it.

Other tips and tricks to save money

Use tees and golf balls that you find throughout the course instead of buying new ones.
Walk instead of taking a cart… carts can be a ripoff depending on the course rates, and walking is very relaxing.
Budget your money — decide how much money you want to spend on golf per month, and don’t go over no matter what. If that means going to the short game area instead of the golf course one day, then your score will probably thank you for it anyway. And it’s rare that you actually NEED that new wedge, or putter, or driver. If it’s not in the budget, then don’t feel pressure to make any purchases.
Watch YouTube videos instead of getting lessons. YouTube can be a great place to learn the physics, fundamentals and techniques that are required to improve your golf game. No, you’re not going to get personalized swing advice on YouTube, and you’re not going to suddenly start breaking par after watching a few videos, but in terms of gaining knowledge about the game, it’s a free and great place to start. There are a plethora of professional instructors who have YouTube channels that will be very helpful in your journey.
Take care of your equipment. Clean your clubs; don’t snap them over your leg or throw them down the fairway. Don’t toss your glove or head cover near the cart and drive away and leave it on the ground. Don’t get pissed after a shot and slam the leg of your golf bag and break it. As we established, golf is expensive enough already; don’t make yourself purchase things twice.

Is there anything I missed? If you have any cost-saving tips for beginners, or for avid golfers on a budget, leave them in the comments below!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

Published

3 hours ago

Mar 26, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

2022: Tony Finau (-16)
2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

Tom Hoge (+1.30)
Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
Keith Mitchell (+0.97)
Tony Finau (+0.92)
Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
Cameron Champ (+0.86)
Rafael Campos (+0.84)
Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

Adam Svensson (+1.27)
Harry Hall (+1.01)
Martin Trainer (+0.94)
Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
S.H. Kim (+0.68)
Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past.

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
Ben Griffin (+1.75)
Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
Ben Taylor (+1.53)
Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park.

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
Ben Taylor (+3.40)
Tony Finau (+2.37)
Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

Scottie Scheffler
Wyndham Clark
Tony Finau
Joel Dahmen
Stephan Jaeger
Aaron Rai
Sahith Theegala
Keith Mitchell
Jhonnatan Vegas
Jason Day
Kurt Kitayama
Alex Noren
Will Zalatoris
Si Woo Kim
Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions. The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

Published

4 days ago

Mar 22, 2024

Brendan Ryan

B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

Published

1 week ago

Mar 18, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time.

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
2022: Sam Burns (-17)
2021: Sam Burns (-17)
2019: Paul Casey (-8)
2018: Paul Casey (-10)
2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

Tony Finau (+.90)
Nick Taylor (+.81)
Justin Thomas (+.77)
Greyson Sigg (+.69)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (+91.3%)
Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
Tony Finau (+1.24)
Cameron Young (+1.17)
Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (+9.0)
Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
Austin Cook (+9.7)
Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

Xander Schauffele (+1,71)
Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
Cameron Young (+1.27)
Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

Patrick Cantlay (+3.75)
Sam Burns (+2.49)
Davis Riley (+2.33)
Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

Xander Schauffele
Doug Ghim
Victor Perez
Greyson Sigg
Ryan Moore
Tony Finau
Justin Thomas
Sam Ryder
Sam Burns
Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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