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Sand Saves: How often should you actually get “up-and-down” from the bunker based on your handicap?

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This is a follow-up to my recent article,“How often should you … get ‘Up-and-Down’ based on your handicap?”  That article focused on short game shots around the green that were NOT sand shots. If you have not read it, please do as I will not be repeating all of the supporting points in this article.

The traditional “Sand Save” stat has long been the accepted measure of skill from greenside sand. The chart below shows average performance in this area for PGA Tour players and an array of handicap levels. It refers to sand shots around the green and within 50 yards of the hole.

How do you fit in?

While sand saves, or “up and downs,” are nice, I do not believe them to be an appropriate or accurate measure of short game skill. Sand shots are quite a bit different than chipping or pitching, not only because they are a very different skill, but also because they tend to occupy a much smaller part of the overall game.

Non-sand short game shots generally range from a low of four or five shots per round at the top levels of the game, to as many as 15 shots at the other end. For perspective, the typical 15-19 handicap golfer averages about 10 non-sand short game shots per round. Shots from the sand are relatively rare, usually only 1 to 3 per round, and the 15-19 handicap golfer averages less than two.

Despite their reduced role, however, sand shots can have a meaningful impact on score. Why? It’s due to the difficulty of these shots and their high incidence of ERRORs, which I will discuss more below.

Again, I do NOT believe that “up and downs” are an appropriate or accurate measure of short game skill for two reasons:

  1. An up-and-down is actually the combination of two skills: Short Game and Putting.
  2. The stat totally ignores ERRORS, or shots that miss the green.

In my 30+ years of studying golf performance at all skill levels, I have found that FREQUENCY and SEVERITY of bad shots (errors) do so much more to influence a player’s scoring level than do all the good shots. I did not create my stat program to expose the errors in the game, but my early work and analysis revealed exactly how important they are, as well as their glaring omission from existing, traditional stats. Accordingly, I built the ability to capture data on the common errors in the game into ShotByShot.com.

The true measure of a player’s short game skill is their Strokes Gained in that facet. BUT, that is simply a number — a positive number is good, and a negative number is not so good. So how then to best display the skill that is associated with the Strokes Gained number? I believe the combination of the three stats below to be the correct way to display skill from the sand:

  • Average putting distance when the green is successfully hit.
  • Percent of shots hit to within 8 feet of the hole.
  • Percent of errors, or shots that miss the putting surface.

In the chart above, the orange line represents the percentage of shots that the various levels of handicap golfers hit to within 8 feet of the hole. Why 8 feet? Our data has told us that this distance represents a good shot, just as 5 feet does in Chipping and Pitching around the green. The black line represents shots that miss the green (errors). For example, if you are the average 15-handicap golfer, you should be getting about one of every six sand shots to within 8 feet. You’ll miss the green with about one in every three sand shots, however, so you’ll make twice as many errors as you make good shots.

Note that the two lines cross at about a 10 handicap. A 10 handicap is actually a better golfer than 90 percent of the people who play the game regularly. Yet for every sand shot that they successfully get to within 8 feet of the hole, they are also sculling or leaving one in the sand and missing the green altogether. Further, these errors can lead to even more difficult positions, large numbers and real frustration.

Finally, a fear of the greenside sand can dramatically impact confidence and ability to hit greens. If you are having difficulty from the sand, I suggest that you first consult with your pro about your sand wedge. Is it the right loft and bounce for your game and the condition of your course’s sand? Then work to gain confidence in getting OUT. Just focus on getting the ball on the green. Forget the about the “save” until you can practice enough to reliably play the array of sand shots required with confidence.

If you’d like to see how greenside errors are affecting your game, as well as where you stack up to golfers in your handicap level, you can register for a FREE TRIAL of my strokes-gained analysis at ShotbyShot.com

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In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Brad

    Aug 3, 2018 at 5:01 am

    The best thing to do on many of the bunkers around here is to take your putter or a 7 iron and just chip it out on the lowest side of the bunker, regardless of what direction that may be. Many of the bunkers are like wet concrete around here and the bunker technique used by most pros and taught by most coaching pros is entirely worthless and will only result in a skulled bunker shot 80% or more of the time. I would rather hit a flop shot over a bunker or over a 50 foot tall tree from a hard pan lie than have to get it out of most bunkers.

    I would just love to see some of the best pros on tour get out of some of the kind of bunkers we have to play in sometime. There would be no end to the complaints from them I’m sure…

  2. DaveyD

    Aug 2, 2018 at 11:02 am

    The charts above should be explained by the number of data points used to create the statistics. While the overall trends aren’t surprising and are most likely expected, these types of stats are kept for your players, but less likely to be kept as the handicap increases.
    The last comment is in regard to putting, or rather the putting surface- in general. An assumption might be made that better golfers might play on better courses with better-maintained greens which could positively impact putting success.

    • DaveyD

      Aug 2, 2018 at 11:03 am

      The “your players” above should be “tour players”

  3. Poot

    Aug 2, 2018 at 2:04 am

    You ain’t applying this to Links bunkers, that’s for sure. We saw what happened at Carnoustie last week, they were lucky just to get it out.
    So, another meaningless “you’re an amateur and you suck” statistical analysis.

  4. Paul

    Aug 1, 2018 at 10:54 pm

    Makes me feel better about my sand play!
    I thought I was pretty average but I’m actually doing ok!

  5. Tom54

    Aug 1, 2018 at 2:21 pm

    Kevin explains it well. Our bunkers at our course aren’t the greatest either. Depth of sand inconsistent. One shot you hit couple inches behind and it comes out great. Next bunker you’re in there’s no sand, the club bounces into the ball and over the green it goes. Lots of times our group plays move it out of footprints. Pros play off perfect lies why shouldn’t we?

  6. Tee-Bone

    Aug 1, 2018 at 1:58 pm

    Strokes Gained on the PGA Tour are based on the averages of the field. Where are the averages from with your Strokes Gained programs?

    • Peter Sanders

      Aug 2, 2018 at 9:09 am

      Good Q! Our Strokes Gained model is based upon the average Scratch player. We calculate each players SG # vs. Scratch and then compare it to the average SG #’s in each facet for the player’s Target handicap range. It works!

  7. Kevin

    Aug 1, 2018 at 11:05 am

    Sand save recovery stats are skewed as i’d guess the majority of amateurs aren’t playing courses where the greenside bunkers have several inches of sand and perfectly manicured like on tour. factor in that thousands of courses have little to no sand in some bunkers and the liklihood of a skull is much higher than a pga course. i always find it amusing when watching an instruction program on GC and they mention opening face and hitting 3 inches behind the ball. good luck when you come play in ohio and the bunker is hard packed. and its not goat tracks…a lot of really nice courses simply can’t afford to constantly replace/fill sand in their bunkers.

    • Mat

      Aug 1, 2018 at 5:33 pm

      Complete agreement. Sand, believe it or not, is expensive and getting rare. Traps are not worthy of a lot of practice outside of knowing your lie (your feet will tell you how far you sink in is how far behind the ball you enter) and getting out in one shot. If you’re a 10+, that’s the biggest challenge. Get out and two putt for bogey. Don’t take two to get out – that’s the card killer.

      • Pete McGill

        Aug 2, 2018 at 2:08 am

        True. My course has one hole with the only two bunkers. Players walk off with either 100% or zero in sand saves.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s LIV Golf Singapore betting preview: Course specialist ready to thrive once again

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After another strong showing in Australia, LIV Golf will head to Sentosa Golf Club in Singapore looking to build off of what was undoubtedly their best event to date.

Sentosa Golf Club sits on the southern tip of Singapore and is one of the most beautiful courses in the world. The course is more than just incredible scenically; it was also rated 55th in Golf Digest’s top-100 courses in 2022-2023 and has been consistently regarded as one of the best courses in Asia. Prior to being part of the LIV rotation, the course hosted the Singapore Open every year since 2005.

Sentosa Golf Club is a par 71 measuring 7,406 yards. The course will require precise ball striking and some length off the tee. It’s possible to go low due to the pristine conditions, but there are also plenty of hazards and difficult spots on the course that can bring double bogey into play in a hurry. The Bermudagrass greens are perfectly manicured, and the course has spent millions on the sub-air system to keep the greens rolling fast. I spoke to Asian Tour player, Travis Smyth, who described the greens as “the best [he’s] ever played.”

Davis Love III, who competed in a Singapore Open in 2019, also gushed over the condition of the golf course.

“I love the greens. They are fabulous,” the 21-time PGA Tour winner said.

Love III also spoke about other aspects of the golf course.

“The greens are great; the fairways are perfect. It is a wonderful course, and it’s tricky off the tee.”

“It’s a long golf course, and you get some long iron shots. It takes somebody hitting it great to hit every green even though they are big.”

As Love III said, the course can be difficult off the tee due to the length of the course and the trouble looming around every corner. It will take a terrific ball striking week to win at Sentosa Golf Club.

In his pre-tournament press conference last season, Phil Mickelson echoed many of the same sentiments.

“To play Sentosa effectively, you’re going to have a lot of shots from 160 to 210, a lot of full 6-, 7-, 8-iron shots, and you need to hit those really well and you need to drive the ball well.”

Golfers who excel from tee to green and can dial in their longer irons will have a massive advantage this week.

Stat Leaders at LIV Golf Adelaide:

Fairways Hit

1.) Louis Oosthuizen

2.) Anirban Lahiri

3.) Jon Rahm

4.) Brendan Steele

5.) Cameron Tringale

Greens in Regulation

1.) Brooks Koepka

2.) Brendan Steele

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Cameron Tringale

5.) Anirban Lahiri

Birdies Made

1.) Brendan Steele

2.) Dean Burmester

3.) Thomas Pieters

4.) Patrick Reed

5.) Carlos Ortiz

LIV Golf Individual Standings:

1.) Joaquin Niemann

2.) Jon Rahm

3.) Dean Burmester

4.) Louis Oosthuizen

5.) Abraham Ancer

LIV Golf Team Standings:

1.) Crushers

2.) Legion XIII

3.) Torque

4.) Stinger GC

5.) Ripper GC

LIV Golf Singapore Picks

Sergio Garcia +3000 (DraftKings)

Sergio Garcia is no stranger to Sentosa Golf Club. The Spaniard won the Singapore Open in 2018 by five strokes and lost in a playoff at LIV Singapore last year to scorching hot Talor Gooch. Looking at the course setup, it’s no surprise that a player like Sergio has played incredible golf here. He’s long off the tee and is one of the better long iron players in the world when he’s in form. Garcia is also statistically a much better putter on Bermudagrass than he is on other putting surfaces. He’s putt extremely well on Sentosa’s incredibly pure green complexes.

This season, Garcia has two runner-up finishes, both of them being playoff losses. Both El Camaleon and Doral are courses he’s had success at in his career. The Spaniard is a player who plays well at his tracks, and Sentosa is one of them. I believe Sergio will get himself in the mix this week. Hopefully the third time is a charm in Singapore.

Paul Casey +3300 (FanDuel)

Paul Casey is in the midst of one of his best seasons in the five years or so. The results recently have been up and down, but he’s shown that when he’s on a golf course that suits his game, he’s amongst the contenders.

This season, Casey has finishes of T5 (LIV Las Vegas), T2 (LIV Hong Kong), and a 6th at the Singapore Classic on the DP World Tour. At his best, the Englishman is one of the best long iron players in the world, which makes him a strong fit for Sentosa. Despite being in poor form last season, he was able to fire a Sunday 63, which shows he can low here at the course.

It’s been three years since Casey has won a tournament (Omega Dubai Desert Classic in 2021), but he’s been one of the top players on LIV this season and I think he can get it done at some point this season.

Mito Pereira +5000 (Bet365)

Since Mito Pereira’s unfortunate demise at the 2022 PGA Championship, he’s been extremely inconsistent. However, over the past few months, the Chilean has played well on the International Series as well as his most recent LIV start. Mito finished 8th at LIV Adelaide, which was his best LIV finish this season.

Last year, Pereira finished 5th at LIV Singapore, shooting fantastic rounds of 67-66-66. It makes sense why Mito would like Sentosa, as preeminent ball strikers tend to rise to the challenge of the golf course. He’s a great long iron player who is long and straight off the tee.

Mito has some experience playing in Asia and is one of the most talented players on LIV who’s yet to get in the winner’s circle. I have questions about whether or not he can come through once in contention, but if he gets there, I’m happy to roll the dice.

Andy Ogletree +15000 (DraftKings)

Andy Ogletree is a player I expected to have a strong 2024 but struggled early in his first full season on LIV. After failing to crack the top-25 in any LIV event this year, the former U.S. Amateur champion finally figured things out, finished in a tie for 3rd at LIV Adelaide.

Ogletree should be incredible comfortable playing in Singapore. He won the International Series Qatar last year and finished T3 at the International Series Singapore. The 26-year-old was arguably the best player on the Asian Tour in 2023 and has been fantastic in the continent over the past 18 months.

If Ogletree has indeed found form, he looks to be an amazing value at triple-digit odds.

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Lessons from the worst golf instructor in America

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In Tampa, there is a golf course that boasts carts that do not work, a water range, and a group of players none of which have any chance to break 80. The course is overseen by a staff of crusty men who have succeeded at nothing in life but ending up at the worst-run course in America. However, this place is no failure. With several other local courses going out of business — and boasting outstanding greens — the place is booked full.

While I came for the great greens, I stayed to watch our resident instructor; a poor-tempered, method teacher who caters to the hopeless. At first, it was simply hilarious. However, after months of listening and watching, something clicked. I realized I had a front-row seat to the worst golf instructor in America.

Here are some of my key takeaways.

Method Teacher

It is widely accepted that there are three types of golf instructors: system teachers, non-system teachers, and method teachers. Method teachers prescribe the same antidote for each student based on a preamble which teachers can learn in a couple day certification.

Method teaching allows anyone to be certified. This process caters to the lowest caliber instructor, creating the illusion of competency. This empowers these underqualified instructors with the moniker of “certified” to prey on the innocent and uninformed.

The Cult of Stack and Jilt

The Stack and Tilt website proudly boasts, “A golfer swings his hands inward in the backswing as opposed to straight back to 1) create power, similar to a field goal kicker moving his leg in an arc and 2) to promote a swing that is in-to-out, which produces a draw (and eliminates a slice).”

Now, let me tell you something, there is this law of the universe which says “energy can either be created or destroyed,” so either these guys are defying physics or they have no idea what they are taking about. Further, the idea that the first move of the backswing determines impact is conjecture with a splash of utter fantasy.

These are the pontifications of a method — a set of prescriptions applied to everyone with the hope of some success through the placebo effect. It is one thing for a naive student to believe, for a golf instructor to drink and then dispel this Kool-Aid is malpractice.

Fooled by Randomness

In flipping a coin, or even a March Madness bet, there is a 50-50 chance of success. In golf, especially for new players, results are asymmetric. Simply put: Anything can happen. The problem is that when bad instructors work with high handicappers, each and every shot gets its own diagnosis and prescription. Soon the student is overwhelmed.

Now here’s the sinister thing: The overwhelming information is by design. In this case, the coach is not trying to make you better, they are trying to make you reliant on them for information. A quasi Stockholm syndrome of codependency.

Practice

One of the most important scientists of the 20th century was Ivan Pavlov. As you might recall, he found that animals, including humans, could be conditioned into biological responses. In golf, the idea of practice has made millions of hackers salivate that they are one lesson or practice session from “the secret.”

Sunk Cost

The idea for the worst golf instructor is to create control and dependency so that clients ignore the sunk cost of not getting better. Instead, they are held hostage by the idea that they are one lesson or tip away from unlocking their potential.

Cliches

Cliches have the effect of terminating thoughts. However, they are the weapon of choice for this instructor. Add some hyperbole and students actually get no information. As a result, these players couldn’t play golf. When they did, they had no real scheme. With no idea what they are doing, they would descend into a spiral of no idea what to do, bad results, lower confidence, and running back to the lesson tee from more cliches.

The fact is that poor instruction is about conditioning players to become reliant members of your cult. To take away autonomy. To use practice as a form of control. To sell more golf lessons not by making people better but through the guise that without the teacher, the student can never reach their full potential. All under the umbrella of being “certified” (in a 2-day course!) and a melee of cliches.

This of course is not just happening at my muni but is a systemic problem around the country and around the world, the consequences of which are giving people a great reason to stop playing golf. But hey, at least it’s selling a lot of golf balls…

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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