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Here’s who should be the four U.S. Ryder Cup captain’s picks based on analytics

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After the PGA Championship, the U.S. Ryder Cup team solidified 8 of its 12 players on the team. Now, captain Jim Furyk will have to decide who the other 4 players will be to join the team. In this day and age of advanced data analytics, it is imperative for the U.S. team to utilize an analytical approach. The European team has used advanced analytics in recent Ryder Cups, and they now field one of the best European squads of all time. Any advantage that the Europeans have that the U.S. team can counter would behoove Furyk and his chances of being a winning Ryder Cup captain.

Normally, captains have sought out players that have played well right before the Ryder Cup. This is a sound strategy. My statistical research on the subject is that most players reach peak performance for about four events in a row. Then their performance inevitably dips to a degree before eventually they hit peak performance, again.

The golden rule is that 80 percent of a player’s earnings in a season come in about 20 percent of the events they play in. Thus, if a player earns $2 million and plays 25 events in a season there’s a good likelihood that he earned $1.6 million of that in just 5 events.

These trends show that picking a hot player is fairly important. However, the issue is that Furyk has to make 3 of the picks by September 3rd and the last pick by September 9th and the Ryder Cup starts on September 28th. Thus, it’s very plausible that a player who is picked because they are playing great golf may cool down a bit by the time the Ryder Cup is being played. Therefore, finding a player with a hot hand is not quite what it is cracked up to be. But, I would recommend staying away from players that are playing miserably. History has shown that a hot player that is selected is more likely to perform better at the Ryder Cup than the cold player that gets selected.

There are some simple statistical rules to follow for optimal picks:

  1. Seek out quality performers around the green as it helps most in the Foursome (alternate shot) and individual match play format.
  2. You want birdie makers and quality performers on each of the holes (par-3’s, par-4’s and par-5’s) for the Fourball (best score) format.
  3. Ryder Cup experience doesn’t mean anything if the player is a poor Ryder Cup performer.
  4. All things being equal, take the younger player.
  5. Lean towards the player who fits into both Fourball and Foursome formats over the slightly better player that only fits well into one format.

A good way to start to determine what picks you need is to understand your current team. Here are the rankings in key metrics for the top-8 players on the U.S. team (rankings based out of 205 players):

The top-8 players compile a good driving team that drives the ball effectively thru hitting the ball a long ways rather than being deadly accurate off the tee. One of the best attributes the top-8 has is that they are a very good Short Game team (median ranking of 40.5). They are also pretty good from the Red Zon (175-225 yards), but are better from the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards).

The top-8 has dominated par-4’s (median ranking of 11.5) and par-5’s (median ranking of 20) while being good on the par-3’s (median ranking of 44.5). They also make a lot of birdies (median ranking 27th).

It should also be noted that Brooks Koepka’s data could probably be thrown out since it was skewed by him coming off an injury and he is clearly a different and much improved player in recent months. Koepka has typically been one of the better putters on Tour and a pretty good Red Zone performer.

The potential issues I see is that they do not hit a lot of fairways and have some players with issues hitting shots from the rough which is a bad combination in the Foursome format. Also, Webb Simpson currently stands as their weakest link on the team as he has not played that well in recent months and they will likely need to figure out a way to work around him if his performance doesn’t improve between now and the Ryder Cup.

Here are the picks I would recommend making at this point:

Tiger Woods

This is clearly the easiest pick to make even though Tiger’s Ryder Cup record has not been exactly stellar. Forget about Tiger being arguably the greatest player of all time, his performance has clearly indicated that he deserves to be on this Ryder Cup team. Furthermore, he’s statistically a quality fit in either the Fourball or Foursome format. The only issue I see is that given his age and his back issues, it would be wise to use him in no more than 3 matches in the first two days and even that may be too much for him. But, I would love to see him paired in the Foursome format with a player who hits fairways and can play well from the rough for those drives that Tiger struggles with.

Tony Finau

Finau has had 8 top-10 finishes and 2 second place finishes this season. He’s a nice looking fit at the Ryder Cup because he’s a great fit in the Fourball format and a pretty good fit in the Foursome format. In fact, my simulations find that he and Tiger would be a good fit together in either format.

Bryson DeChambeau

Again, versatility and youth play a key role in his selection. You never quite know who is going to show up at the Ryder Cup and who may get injured. Thus, there’s always a need for a player that fits both formats and can play in ever match if needed. The simulations I’ve ran really like a Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau pairing.

Patrick Cantlay

This was a difficult choice between Cantlay, Mickelson and Zach Johnson. The pros for Mickelson is that he has played well in recent Ryder Cups and certainly has the experience. He’s also not a bad fit in the Foursome format and a really good fit in the Fourball format if paired with another birdie making machine that avoids bogeys and plays well on par-3’s (i.e. Koepka, Fowler and Tiger). Zach has been a quality Ryder Cup performer as well and is best suited for the Foursome format. However, he’s not such a bad fit in the Fourball format. He doesn’t hit it long, but he does make birdies (43rd in Adjusted Birdie Percentage).

From a pure numbers point of view, my simulations favor Cantlay. I wish he was better from the Red Zone and from the rough, but he’s still a quality candidate in both formats and has youth on his side. For sentimental reasons, I would pick Mickelson because the simulations such as him and Tiger in the Fourball format, and this will likely be the last time that the two can ever be paired together. The numbers don’t care about emotions, though. And that’s why Cantlay is the pick for now. It would just be wise to wait until September 9th to make the final pick.

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Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

35 Comments

35 Comments

  1. Paul

    Aug 25, 2018 at 9:00 pm

    Woods has no business being on the team.

  2. Speedy

    Aug 21, 2018 at 1:42 pm

    TW, XS, KUCHAR, KISNER.

  3. Chris

    Aug 20, 2018 at 11:13 pm

    1. Tiger 2. Kisner 3. Phil 4. Kuchar and Phil is iffy I know he’s a staple and people love him but he’s not playing well but he’s a team guy and his short game helps in these situations. At some point people will have to get used to tiger and Phil not being on these teams though.

  4. Lance Kulman

    Aug 20, 2018 at 7:16 pm

    I would go off the reservation a bit, Tiger, Cantalay, sneadaker(all on Sep 3rd), then shock the world with Andrew Putman(won the stabbleford tourney) and has shown the ability to be birdie and eagle machine. He’s also young and could be the future of the American Ryder Cup team.

  5. Robert

    Aug 20, 2018 at 3:54 pm

    A point system determined the top 8 at the end of the P. If you extend that point system to the top 12 at the end of the PGA you get Bryson, Tiger, Phil, and Xander. The French and Euros get to see:
    Bryson (young, talented, with a new idea/approach to the game)
    Tiger and Phil (legends – who would not want to see them play?)
    Xander – new, young, talented.
    Go with the point system)

  6. Majduffer

    Aug 20, 2018 at 3:09 pm

    Tiger is a real iffy pick as he can’t hit a fairway. If the PGA championship had been at any major type venue instead of the milk toast setup, then I think
    TW would have not made the cut. He would have hit his stinger all day and giving up copious yards to everyone. Im sure euros will tighten the course if TW is
    picked. Note TWs fairway hit stats are inflated as he hits his 2I almost half the time. How would you like to play alt. shot with a guy who is giving up 30yds on holes you should be hitting a driver. Phil has a great short game so he is a natural for the team events. The rest of the picks should be youth.

    • Mike C

      Aug 20, 2018 at 3:54 pm

      Regardless of how he gets it done, Tiger had the lead on the back 9 Sunday in the British Open a few weeks earlier and the course setup was 180 degrees opposite of that of the PGA Championship. So your argument about course setup is not valid. Tiger has proven he can compete under any conditions.

      • Dreg

        Aug 20, 2018 at 9:19 pm

        Yes, when he is playing by himself for himself, only

  7. Tee-Bone

    Aug 20, 2018 at 1:54 pm

    Tee-Bone picks;
    1.Tiger…He’s back, and plus…he’s Tiger
    2.Phil…Has had a great year, including a win. He’s the de facto US leader. Plus, he’s filthy at Ping Pong.
    3.DeChambeau…He’s the real deal. He’ll be on many more teams, so get him in the mix now. Plus, he can teach the other guys how to execute a proper “baseline shift”.
    4.Finau…It’s all about “inclusion” these days. Plus, he shook off a nasty ankle sprain. He’s tough.

    • kileen

      Aug 20, 2018 at 2:40 pm

      what does “inclusion” mean here? pick him because of his ethnicity? if so, wtf is wrong with you

  8. Art Williams

    Aug 20, 2018 at 1:41 pm

    If you don’t pick Phil you’re nuts. The only reason anyone wouldn’t pick Phil is a pent up long standing prejudice against him. It’s only been the last few years that most of the media started to embrace him and his swipe at a moving ball in the US Open has been the catalyst for some members of the media to again find a reason to take a shot at him. It’s like OK we have our leader back ( Tiger) so it’s time to dump Phil AGAIN.Most fans love Phil but the media doesn’t. It’s an old story. Instead of just saying I don’t like Phil you’ll come up with some statistical reason to not pick him. It was evident on air yesterday that there are still many in the golf media who just don’t like him as his name was either ignored or there were questions about his worthiness on the Ryder Cup. Good god guys, he’s Phil Mickelson and he is the Ryder Cup. Cantley, really!

    • Fiorenzo

      Aug 21, 2018 at 2:23 am

      Could not agree with you more ; and this is from many miles away on another continent. leave Phil out and Europe will smile and say thanks.

  9. Jack Nash

    Aug 20, 2018 at 1:28 pm

    Just like in the Mutual Fund biz “Past Performance insn’t a guarantee of future returns”. The same can be said about Woods. The article basically went against itself. Just because somebody was great 5-10 yrs ago doesn’t guarantee a winning return. The “afraid”of Tiger effect has gone. There’s more than a few on the Euro team who would relish playing a guy who can’t find the fairway.

    • Mike C

      Aug 20, 2018 at 1:41 pm

      Tiger got to 11th on the Ryder Cup points list in just 14 starts. He’s finished 6th and 2nd in the last two majors and has finished in the top 12 in half his starts. Of all the players who aren’t automatically on the team, he has the best stats. What rationale is there to keep him off the team?

      • Matty

        Aug 20, 2018 at 2:02 pm

        He just don’t like him lol, Tiger should be in and Phil should be out, when is the last time PM made a cut?

        • Tartan Golf Travel

          Aug 20, 2018 at 9:42 pm

          They will both make it…..Phil has a win this year and 6 top 10’s.

      • Dreg

        Aug 20, 2018 at 9:21 pm

        Because, Mike C, when it comes to alternative shots, nobody will want to be hitting the 2nd shot after Eldrick’s tee shot

  10. Mike C

    Aug 20, 2018 at 1:14 pm

    Can someone please forward this article to Captain Furyk?

  11. Jay Beezy

    Aug 20, 2018 at 1:14 pm

    omg this article is ridiculous on so many levels it’s hard to know where to begin. But I will say given TV rights, team chemistry, history and precedent there is no way PM and TW aren’t on the team so if you want to crunch some nerdy stats to try and make your case (as if golf is something you can predict) – then do it for two players not all 4. I mean Woods and Mickelson are both in the top 12 on the actual points qualifying list. Why would anyone write this article given that fact? And the other two points wise are Schauffele and DeChambeau which would be fine. Just pick the top 12. Stroontz…

  12. Tim May

    Aug 20, 2018 at 11:47 am

    Love how you spell out the quant rules, and then violate two (2!) with the “obvious pick” of Woods.

    1. “Ryder Cup experience doesn’t mean anything if the player is a poor Ryder Cup performer.”
    Losing record = poor performer.
    2. “All things being equal, take the younger player.”
    Younger = anyone born in/after the Bicentenntial year..

    Really?

    • Fut

      Aug 20, 2018 at 1:09 pm

      Yea, why not? The younguns are the future 🙂

    • Ty Webb

      Aug 21, 2018 at 10:17 am

      I read it as an experienced player with a poor record doesn’t get any extra consideration over a rookie. Fine, TW doesn’t get any props for experience, still a better pick than anyone else.

      And all things are not equal. Tiger is clearly the best player not on the team now and it’s not really close.

  13. Mike Honcho

    Aug 20, 2018 at 11:43 am

    Cantlay? Pace of play headache! DeChambeau? Case of headcase! Replace with Kuchar and Zach Johnson.

  14. Team

    Aug 20, 2018 at 11:09 am

    It can’t be Eldrick. The reason why his record is not good in the Ryder Cup is because he is NOT a team player. He has never been, and never will be, a selfish dog that he is. The smile and joking banter we’ve all seen lately on the course is fake, it’s just idle chit-chat on the course about nothing. He will be a disruptive force, he will not help bind the team together.
    Sneds, Kuch, ZJ, Phil.

    • Mike C

      Aug 20, 2018 at 1:18 pm

      Tiger’s playing too good to leave him off.

      • Dreg

        Aug 20, 2018 at 9:25 pm

        Only for himself! NOT a team player, Team is correct. Eldrick’s presence will disrupt everybody

  15. d

    Aug 20, 2018 at 11:01 am

    Phil is the obvious sentimental pick. Plus, he’s really good at ping-pong in the team locker room.

  16. Tartan Golf Travel

    Aug 19, 2018 at 9:08 pm

    It will be Tiger and Phil for sure. I think Kuchar is out. I’d probably go Xander and Bryson, which is what I think he will do. Finau just hasn’t done much in big tournaments. His only win was an opposite field event. I like Cantlay and Wise but I think given this is probably Phil and Tigers last Cup they will be on plenty in the future. If Sneds gets hot he’s a great pick and Bryson will be out,

    • Keith

      Aug 20, 2018 at 11:03 am

      Finau hasn’t done much in big tournaments, top 10 in the first 3 majors isn’t good enough??? WHAAAATTT?

      Masters 10th
      US Open 5th
      British 9th
      PGA 42nd (Tied the single round birdie record while playing with Furyk)

      Other “Big” Tournaments:
      WGC HSBC 11th
      Farmers 6th
      Genesis 2nd
      Memorial 13th
      WGC Bridgestone 10th

      Let’s see how the “Mad” (as in temper) Scientist has fared in the same events:
      Masters 38th
      US Open 25th
      British 51st
      PGA MC

      Farmers MC
      Genesis 41st
      Memorial 1st
      WGC Bridgestone 30th

      Looks to me like it’s Bryson who’s struggled when the lights have been the brightest…save for The Memorial 3mos ago.

      Bryson will be a cancer in the team room and fodder for the Euro crowds who will eat him up for his selfish antics. Meanwhile Finau is a birdie making machine who has performed the best when the lights were brightest. He’s jovial, friendly, well liked by his peers, etc.

      It’s a no brainer.

      • Tartan Golf Travel

        Aug 20, 2018 at 3:45 pm

        I like Finau but 1 win in an opposite field event is just not enough. I don’t disagree with you on Bryson but he’s won twice already and plays with Tiger all the time. I’d say you might need to get a life looking up all that info! Finau is a pretty poor putter by PGA standards. Outside of Kuchar I do believe they would all be decent pics so if it’s Finau over Bryson I get it.

  17. DL

    Aug 19, 2018 at 8:59 pm

    If anyone says Finau out….you’re crazy. Dude is built for match play! Would like to see the numbers on X-man and why he wasnt selected.

  18. gunmetal

    Aug 19, 2018 at 8:04 pm

    Cantlay over Mickelson, Kuchar, Johnson, Snedeker? Numbers are cute but there is no analytic for pressure and four out of five of the guys mentioned above have demonstrated they can handle it. Cantlay won once in Vegas in a playoff with a par iirc with a very weak field. And that’s it. He really hasn’t demonstrated any ability to perform under major championship/Ryder cup level pressure. I’d take Pat Perez and a big list of others over Cantlay.

  19. Alcap26

    Aug 19, 2018 at 6:08 pm

    Kuchar, Finau, and Cantlay

  20. Shu

    Aug 19, 2018 at 5:06 pm

    Kuchar, Mickelson, Schauffele IN
    Deschambeau Cantlay Finau OUT

    I would say.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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