19th Hole
Talking golf betting in general, Masters betting in particular, with a pro gambler
It’s no secret that the Masters is the biggest golf betting week of the year. Not only are golf fans who generally don’t punt keen to put a little cash on the line, but general sports fans tune in and pony up in a major way.
Puns aside, we wanted to pose a few questions to to a seasoned golf bettor to see what wisdom he can impart to the more recreational golf gamblers among us.
Dave is the owner of Top Market Sports, the only sports advisory site in the world that’s owned and operated by real Wall Street traders and analysts.
Q. If someone is considering getting into golf betting, what advice would you give him/her?
A. Don’t be scared to bet on underdogs. When betting futures (who will win a given tournament), the value is always in the bottom half of the board. Guys who bet golf for serious money are never going to be kicking themselves for missing out on a 6/1 or 7/1 winner. Look at the surprise winners we’ve seen so far this season. Ted Potter Jr. won at Pebble as a 200/1 shot. Patton Kizzire got the job done as a 75/1 shot in Hawaii. Those are serious payouts.
Q. There’s a lot more to betting on golf than picking who will win the tournament. Can you talk about betting during the tournament?
A. That’s what we specialize in. We’re not really big on betting futures. We’re more focused on round-by-round matchups. Example: Keegan Bradley vs Jamie Lovemark in Round 1. Who will have the lower score? These types of propositions are available at most major sports books. Again, recreational bettors look to bet on favorites. It’s human nature. But sharper players are selectively picking dogs.
Q. Is it generally a good idea to chase value in betting players ahead major tournament weeks?
A. It can work for you, but also against you. It also opens the door for hedging opportunities if you’ve established a position months in advance and the market has moved in your favor. Everyone wishes they had booked a fat ticket on Tiger to win the Masters when he was like 300/1 in October (laughs). Now he’s trading at about 10/1. A lot of guys would be looking to sell some or all of that ticket in order to lock in a profit. Buy low, sell high, right? At the same time, you could’ve gotten Hideki Matsuyama a couple months ago at 15/1. As of this morning he’s 35/1 because his form has faded a bit. So it works both ways.
Q. What resources do you rely on?
A. Statistics are readily available to the public just like they are in any other sport. Strokes gained numbers, greens-in-regulation, scrambling, etc. But if you really want to start profitably betting golf, there’s no substitute for just sitting down and grinding coverage. We like to DVR most of it so we can be efficient with our time. We also talk a lot about “boots on the ground” in our office. There’s nothing wrong or shady about actually being at the practice facility during these events. It’s public information, available to anyone at the event with open eyes and open ears. We’ve had guys at 7 tournaments so far this season. I don’t want to oversimplify it…but if a guy has the yips on the practice putting green, there might be some extra value in betting against him.
Q. Any past golf punts you’re particularly proud of?
A. One recent bet that we told our clients to load up on was Bubba Watson +145 vs Justin Thomas in the semis of the Dell Match Play. A guy who’s got two green jackets should not be that much of an underdog over the course of a single round, especially when he’s coming in hot after winning his group and then a tough quarterfinal match. Also, Bubba’s not the biggest fan favorite in the world, right? This is something we specifically talked about while handicapping the match. People like to root against Bubba, and that created even more value in the market. It was a max play for us. We really stepped out and hit that one hard.
Q. The Masters is the biggest golf betting week of the year. Do you approach it differently?
A. Golf betting markets are less liquid than most other sports. Meaning there’s a hell of a lot more money being bet on football and basketball than on golf or something like tennis. During the majors, there’s more public money AKA square money AKA dumb money in play, which can be mopped up nicely if you know what you’re doing. We’ll be making some of our biggest bets of the PGA Tour season during the Masters.
You can check out Top Market Sports for free betting picks, free articles, and a free real-time odds portal. They can also be found on Instagram @topmarketsports. Top Market Sports went 68-27-3 across all sports in the month of March.
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19th Hole
LET pro gives detailed financial breakdown of first week on tour…and the net result may shock you
On Friday morning, Ladies European Tour player, Hannah Gregg, took to social media to share her weekly expenses playing on the LET.
Expenses of my first week on Ladies European Tour:
Flights: $2600
Work Visa: $350
Food: $377
Caddie: $0 because I have an amazing Fiancé
Hotel: $0 because @GregChalmersPGA sorted me host housing for the week! ?
Rental Car: +0 because the Tour Tee guys GAVE me their car ??…— Hannah Gregg (@hannahbggg) April 26, 2024
“Expenses of my first week on Ladies European Tour: Flights: $2600 Work Visa: $350
- Food: $377
- Caddie: $0 because I have an amazing Fiancé
- Hotel: $0 because @GregChalmersPGA sorted me host housing for the week!
- Rental Car: +0 because the Tour Tee guys GAVE me their car
- Gas: $165
- Entry Fee: $130
- Lounge Pass for caddie: $50
- Gym: $0
- Yardage book: $0
- Total expenses: $3672
Made cut, finished 54th, total earned: $1244 Factor in 35% tax on earnings. To break even, needed to finish 24th. To make money, 21st. Guess we have our goals laid out for next event!”
When factoring in Gregg’s free housing, free caddie and free rental car, it’s evident that most LET players would have to finish well inside of the top-20 to make any money.
With ridiculous amounts of money being thrown around in professional golf these days, it’s important to remember the other side of the coin as well. There are countless professionals out there who struggle to get by on their golf salary.
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- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
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19th Hole
54-hole golf tour deemed eligible for OWGR points…but it’s not LIV
After a seventeen-month application process, a 54-hole golf tour was deemed eligible for OWGR points.
Unfortunately, for LIV Golf and their fans, it was the Clutch Pro Tour.
After the decision, which is effective immediately, OWGR chairman Peter Dawson issued a statement.
“This is a significant milestone for golf, and OWGR is deeply encouraged by the achievement and the continued efforts in developing the sport of golf in the United Kingdom.”
“We look forward to watching the progress of the Clutch Pro Tour as it continues to play a key role in the development of players from the region,” Dawson added.
OWGR Announcement
Read more here – https://t.co/7J4bFpawqv#OWGR#OfficialWorldGolfRanking pic.twitter.com/ZfBJWCFAm8— OWGR (@OWGRltd) April 25, 2024
The Clutch Pro Tour operates in the United Kingdom and features a 36-hole cut. It also has an open qualifying school.
More from the 19th Hole
- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
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19th Hole
Charlie Woods attempting to qualify for spot at 2024 U.S. Open
As first reported by Bob Harig of Sports Illustrated, Charlie Woods will be attempting to qualify for this year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.
The first stage of qualifying for this year’s tournament will be an 18-hole local event on Thursday, April 25th, in Port St. Lucie, Florida.
There will be 84 players in the field, five of which will reach the 36-hole qualifier that will take place in June.
Earlier this season, Charlie attempted to qualify for the Cognizant Classic, and struggled, shooting an 86.
If the younger Woods is able to qualify, he will tee it up in the same field as his father in a few months at one of the more historic U.S. Open venues.
More from the 19th Hole
- The wild reason why Mark Wahlberg was initially denied entry to an Australian golf club
- 2-time major champ announces shock retirement from the sport at age of 33
- Edoardo Molinari reveals the latest PGA Tour golfer to turn down ‘good offer’ from LIV Golf
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