Tiger Woods, as we know, finished one stroke behind Paul Casey in his bid to return to the winner’s circle at the Valspar Championship.

Woods arrived at the 72nd hole needing birdie to tie Casey. Electing to avoid flirtation with fairway bunkers left and right, Woods hit a long iron 258 yards down the fairway, leaving himself a 185-yard approach shot to the back right pin. His approach shot ended up 38 feet, 11 inches, from the hole. Unsurprisingly considering the distance, he didn’t make the putt.

(via PGA Tour’s ShotLink)

Hindsight is 20/20, of course, but some questioned Woods not taking on the bunkers with a 3-wood or driver, and thus allowing for the possibility of a much shorter approach shot he would have been statistically more likely to get close.

Scott Fawcett, founder of the Decade course management system, didn’t question Woods’ decision however. In fact, Fawcett took to Twitter to laud Woods’ decision. The responses to Fawcett’s tweet were both interesting and insightful, spearheaded by our own Rich Hunt.

You can find a portion of this excellent conversation below.

Tiger is the GOAT for a host of reasons, his course management is likely the top of the list though. How many Tour players could go to 18 *needing* birdie and NOT ABANDON HOW THEY PLAYED THE HOLE ALL WEEK? #GOATdiscipline pic.twitter.com/ZGNPWk6mDP

— Scott Fawcett (@scottfawcett) March 11, 2018

My problem is the strategy on 18 today. Had to have birdie, lays up 185 yds. 185 yds/fwy yields a Tour average prox 2 cup of 33.3 feet which has make % of ~6%. A 'good shot' from 185/fwy for Tour players is about 27.8 feet which has a make % of ~8%.

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

If he hits driver ~50 yards past his lay up shot (135 yds), a 'very good shot' would put him to about 16 feet which has a 20% make percentage.

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

Basically gave himself a 6% chance to make birdie by laying up. Had greater odds of finding the fairway with the driver than making birdie by laying up. Again, this is a different situation. He had to make birdie or he goes home unlike the 3 previous rounds.

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

Essentially, laying up is the right move over the long haul because the projected score is lower for Tiger if he lays up off the tee than if he hits driver. But, this wasn't a 'long haul' situation. He had to have birdie and laying up greatly hurt his odds in doing so.

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

If he had a 40% chance of hitting the fairway, that's greater than a 6% chance of making birdie by laying up. Like I said, over the long haul it's wise for him to lay-up on 18 cuz expected scores will be lower. But when you have to have a birdie, laying up is a bad choice here

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

This was a different situation. If I'm playing 18 in any other situation, the odds are to lay up because of the narrow fwy and the trees. But this situation was make birdie or lose. Having 185 yds out, even if you WELL above the Tour avg gives little odds of making birdie.

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

And as promising as Tiger looks…he's not the performer with the irons that he was in his prime years. I was actually surprised so many people thought he would win today given his track record of not winning events coming from behind.

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

I agree with this. I just don't think that in THIS particular situation it applies. Kinda like the basketball team that is down by 3, goes for the easy 2 pt layup with less than 5 seconds to go instead of shooting a 3. They may be a great team but it was poor strategy & they lost

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

Absolutely. It's a completely different scenario. He's down by 1, he has to make at least a birdie. Needs to play the shot that will give him the best chance of making birdie. If he had almost NO chance of hitting the fwy w/driver I can see. But that wasn't nearly the case.

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

Odds based on performance are based on past history. It's very unlikely he would hit a 185 yd shot to 3.3 feet while it's much more likely he would hit that shot closer to 33 feet. I don't understand people thinking it was impossible for him to find the fwy with the driver.

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

Sure. But if he hits it to 25 feet that's still a really good shot from that distance and odds are low. And this year Tiger has made ONE putt from outside 25 feet the entire season (1.85%)…which occurred on the 71st hole.

— Hunt Golf Analytics (@Richie3Jack) March 12, 2018

What do you think, GolfWRX members, do you agree with Woods’ approach off the tee at the final hole?