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The Evolution of the Hogan Grip

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If you were to vote on who would truly be “the most interesting man in golf,” I believe Ben Hogan should win hands down. There may be a few better players in history (not many), but none had the career trajectory of Hogan, and certainly none cultivated the mystery that Hogan did regarding his technique.

Hogan’s ball striking skills were so superior (in 1940 he won three tournaments in two weeks, shooting 34-under par for 216 holes, missing just two greens in regulation) that his fellow competitors would stop their own practice to watch him on the range. When writing or speaking of the role of technique in his rise from struggling touring pro in most of the 1930’s to the game’s greatest practitioner of his time, Hogan regularly referred to the evolution of the way he gripped the club and how that affected his swing as possibly the single most important factor. His accounts, however, are often contradictory and confusing. As some have suggested, this may have been on purpose, as Hogan was loath to offer information for free that he had worked so tirelessly for on his own.

There are quite a number of sources of information regarding Hogan’s life and career, including three full-length biographies (Hogan: The Man Who Played for Glory by Gene Gregston, 1978, Hogan by Curt Sampson, 1997, and Ben Hogan, an American Life by James Dodson, 2004), two full-length books published by Hogan himself (Power Golf and Ben Hogan’s Five Lessons: The Modern Fundamentals of Golf), and various interviews and articles including “This is My Secret” from Life Magazine in 1955, and one-on-one interviews with Nick Seitz of Golf Digest in 1985, with George Peper of Golf Magazine in 1987, and a television interview with Ken Venturi. In each of these sources, the subject of Hogan’s grip arises, and the information given about how he arrived at his beliefs as to the details of assuming a proper grip and how he changed his grip over time are sometimes conflicting, and certainly confusing at best. For the purposes of this review, we will start with Hogan’s own words and writings.

One thing we need to do right away is to dispel the myth that Hogan was actually left-handed. In a 1987 Golf Magazine article, editor George Peper interviewed Hogan and asked this question: “You were a natural left-hander who took up the game right-handed, weren’t you?” To which Hogan responded: “No, that’s one of those things that’s always been written, but it’s an absolute myth. The truth is, the first golf club I owned was an old left-handed, wooden-shafted, rib-faced mashie that a fellow gave me, and that’s the club I was weaned on. During the mornings, we caddies would bang the ball up and down the practice field until the members arrived and it was time to go to work. So, I did all that formative practice left-handed, but I’m a natural right-hander.”

This should quiet all the people who insist Hogan was a lefty who played righty and that was a big advantage (which is not true at all, but that’s another story), and affected the way he held the club. Of course, those who claim Hogan was a natural lefty do so for a good reason. Here is what Hogan wrote in Ben Hogan’s Five Lessons: The Modern Fundamentals of Golf, which was published in 1957: “I was born left-handed — that was the normal way for me to do things. I was switched over to doing things right-handed when I was a boy, but I started golf as a left-hander because the first club I ever came into possession of, an old five-iron, was a left-handed stick”. If you ever wondered why Hogan is considered to be such a mystery, and why there is so much debate about what he did and why he did it, you can start right here.

Hogan first wrote about his grip in his first book, Power Golf, published in 1948. He had won 13 tournaments, including the PGA Championship (his first major), and was the leading money winner on the Tour. He was the dominant figure in the game, but in 1947 he slumped a bit and was outshined by Jimmy Demaret. He came back strong in 1948 with 11 wins and two majors, leading the money list and winning the Player of the Year award. The swings and posed photos in Power Golf are taken at Augusta National, most likely in 1947. The first chapter in Power Golf is titled, “Evolution of the Hogan Grip” (I stole that for this article) and starts by explaining that he started playing left-handed (see above), but he switched to righty because “the only clubs I could get were right-handed clubs.” As you can see, this is already getting confusing, as he never mentions whether he was right-handed or left-handed to begin with, but only that his first club was left-handed. You will see Hogan’s grip change in photos, but Hogan’s explanations as well as the opinions and observations of his biographers as to what the changes were and how they came about are often contradictory. Nevertheless, I will try to follow the information as best I can and make as much sense of this important topic in Hogan’s career as possible. Here is an excerpt from that first chapter:

“…let me say that I have tried all of the grips known to golfers at some time or another in my career. The grip I now use (in 1947) was arrived at by a series of trial-and-error experiments which began when I first took up the game. As recently as the fall of 1945, when I got out of the service, I made a radical change in my grip which I had been experimenting with whenever I got a chance to play golf while in the Army. I had been aware for some time that if I wanted to make a comeback as a successful golfer that I would have to make a change in my grip to correct a tendency I always had to over swing on the backswing. By the time I resumed tournament play, I had made the change and had everything in good working order. Formerly I used a grip in which I had what might be best described as a long thumb when speaking of the position of the thumb of the left hand on the shaft. During the course of the backswing that thumb used to slide down on the shaft, and as a result, I was always guilty of a certain looseness at the top of my swing which prevented me from getting the maximum of control. In correcting this, I pushed the left thumb back up on the shaft. The entire change couldn’t have amounted to more than half an inch in the movement of the thumb, but it was enough to restrict my backswing so that it no longer is loose.”

Hogan writes of his grip in more detail in Five Lessons: “When I changed over to the right side, possibly as a hangover from my left-handed start, I first used a cross-hand grip. I experimented next with the interlocking grip, and at length — I must have been about 15 at the time (around 1927) — I finally arrived at the overlapping grip. I was working then in the golf shop at the Glen Garden Club, and I copied the grip of Ted Longworth, the pro … Over the years since first adopting the overlapping grip, I have made two minor alterations. Right after I came out of the service, I changed from what is called the “long thumb” to a modified “short thumb.” I made my second alteration in 1946, moving my left hand a good half inch to the left. I was working then to find some way to of retaining my power while curbing my occasional tendency to hook. Moving my left hand over so that that thumb was directly down the middle of the shaft was the first step in licking that problem.” I find it quite interesting that Hogan left that bit of information out of “Power Golf,” and that he only revealed it after his semi-retirement in 1955 in the Life Magazine article “Hogan’s Secret” and the 1956 publication of “Five Lessons.” My guess is that he omitted it on purpose, not wanting to give away any competitive advantage.

Curt Sampson, in his biography of Hogan simply titled “Hogan,” provides some color to the story of Hogan’s beginnings as a caddy and his interaction with Longworth: “Long driving had been a macho thing in the Glen Garden caddie yard. Whatever caddies were still around at the end of the day would hit one ball each from the first tee: the shortest hitter had to run out onto the deserted course and pick up the balls, then they would do it again.” As Longworth recalled it for a story in the PGA Championship program in 1946, a few members always emerged from the 19th hole to watch. “Yah, Bennie, get ready to chase ‘em again,” the other boys would say, according to Longworth. (Byron) Nelson never lost; Hogan never won. Bennie tried hitting it cross-handed.”

“Bennie, if you don’t change that hog-killer’s grip, you might as well take up cattle rustling,” Longworth told Hogan. The tall, stoop shouldered pro bent down and untangled the boy’s hands. Since distance was the name of this game, he gave Bennie a distance grip, turning his left hand to the right and his right hand underneath the club, thus helping him close the clubface during the swing and producing a left-curving shot, a hook. Hooks roll.”

We can imagine what that grip looked like when we see the photo of what Hogan described as a “hook grip” in Power Golf. Looking at the photos of what Hogan thought was the ideal grip, and the one he used at the time, you can readily see how he weakened his grip as he explained.

Hogan_Grip_1

Hogan_Grip_2Hogan_Grip_3

This is obviously the grip that won Hogan the 1946 PGA Championship and nine tournaments between August of 1945 and April of 1946, but did Hogan make further changes after three-putting the 18th hole to lose the Masters in 1946? The history (no thanks to Hogan himself) is confusing, but let’s see if we can sort it out.

In the 1955 Life Magazine article “This is My Secret” (written after Hogan had essentially retired from competition and for which Hogan was paid $10,000), Hogan explains: “…in 1946, I was having trouble getting the ball in the air. I had a low, ducking, agonizing hook, the kind you can hang your coat on. I was finishing in the money and occasionally winning a tournament, even with a terrible game. But the handwriting was on the wall. If I was going to stay and make a living, something had to be done. I left the Tour and went home to Fort Worth about as desperate as a man can be. I sat and thought for three or four days. One night while laying awake in bed, I began thinking about a technique for hitting a golf ball that was so old it was almost new.” Hogan goes on to talk about the idea of “pronation,” whereby the clubface is rolled open by the hands right from the start of the backswing, and continues to open all the way to the top of the swing. “…before the night was over I had added two adjustments, which on paper made pronation hook-proof without any loss of distance.” Hogan then recounts how well the ideas worked in practice, and then in tournament play when he went to Chicago for the Tam O’ Shanter and won two events in a row. (An interesting side note: as it turns out, Hogan did not recollect this correctly. He finished 4th in the Tam O’ Shanter and it wasn’t until the Colonial later in the summer that he began to dominate the Tour). “The two adjustments had transformed pronation into a bonanza for me. They were so delicate that no one would ever think of looking for them, and I certainly was not going to tell anybody where to look. The first was in the grip. I moved my left hand one-eighth to one-quarter inch to the left so that the thumb was almost directly on top of the shaft. The second adjustment, which is the real meat of the “secret,” was nothing more than a twist or cocking of the left wrist. I cupped the wrist gradually backward and inward so that the wrist formed a slight V at the top of the swing…which had the effect of opening the face of the club to the widest practical extreme at the top of the swing.” Here is a picture from the article of Hogan demonstrating this change in the grip:

Hogan_Grip_4

Compare this to his depiction of a “slice grip” in Power Golf, just 8 years earlier:

Hogan_Grip_5

And here is Hogan demonstrating the grip in detail in his instructional masterpiece, “The Five Lessons: The Modern Fundamentals of Golf.”

Hogan_Grip_6

Note that in the drawing the “V” formed by the left thumb and forefinger definitely points to the left of the chin, which would indicate a two-knuckle grip (Hogan says it should point to the right eye), while in the photo from the Life Magazine article above shows more of a one-knuckle grip where the “V” points more straight up. This makes a huge difference, and studying the pictures in the book it is unclear whether Hogan consistently used either. We can find a major difference between the Power Golf grip and the Five Lessons grip when we look at these two pictures of Hogan placing his left hand on the club:

Hogan_Grip_7

Hogan_Grip_8

At first glance, it would appear that Hogan is placing the club in his hand in a similar fashion, but take note of the angle of the shaft to the left forearm and the angle the fingers form in relation to the ground. The Power Golf version promotes more dorsiflexion (inward bending) of the wrist, while the Five Lessons grip is more palm oriented and would be what we would describe now as “weaker.” It is my opinion that Hogan played his best golf from 1946-1953 with his left hand closer to the Power Golf grip than the grip he demonstrates in Five Lessons and in the Life Magazine article. However, it is also evident to me that he steadily weakened his right hand, and that the obvious difference between the right-hand placement demonstrated in Power Golf and that of Five Lessons is more apparent in the videos of his swing after the accident. Let’s look at how he changed his ideas on right hand placement:

Hogan_Grip_9

Hogan_Grip_10

The key here in the eventual difference in the right-hand grip can be found in the phrasing. In Power Golf, Hogan says: “The club lies diagonally across the fingers of my right hand.” In Five Lessons, Hogan says: “The club lies across the top joint of the fingers of the right hand.” Here are examples of the finished right-hand grip:

Hogan_Grip_11

Hogan_Grip_12

With the club placed more horizontally across the fingers of the right hand at the bottom of the first joint with the palm facing the target, there is already much more of the hand to fold over the club, thus positioning the “V” more straight up at the chin in a weaker position. By positioning the club more diagonally across the fingers Hogan sets the right hand more under the club in a stronger position.

Hogan speaks of his game prior to his epiphany of 1946 as though he was a terrible golfer with a pronounced hook that threatened to end his career at any time. The record shows, however, that he won four events and was the Tour’s leading money winner in 1940. He won five events in 1941, and won both the Vardon Trophy (lowest average scoring average) and led the money list, and in 1942 he won six events and was leading money winner before being called up for service in World War II. Upon his return from the war, he won 5 times after August in 1945, then four more times in 1946 before his first win utilizing his “secret.’ It is apparent, however, that what Hogan found that night lying in bed propelled him to even greater heights from his win at Colonial in 1946 to his accident in early 1949. During that span, he won 29 times, a number that includes three major championships. It is interesting that Cary Middlecoff “remembered a pre-accident Hogan who occasionally missed fairways and greens just like everybody else”, but that “it was in 1950 that he began showing the kind of precision golf that set him apart,” Middlecoff wrote in his book, The Golf Swing.

“In 1950, (Hogan) began to take on the miracle-man aura. Small crowds would gather around him and try to watch his every move anytime he started hitting practice balls.” Hogan himself would disagree with Middlecoff, but said in his interview with Ken Venturi that while he never hit the ball as well after the accident as he had before, he “played” better, noting that it was his belief that course management played a greater role in his success than anyone could imagine. That’s certainly truer when you can hit almost every shot right where you are aiming.

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Wayne has been playing tournament golf for more than 40 years and teaching golf for over 27 years. He is the Director of Instruction at Lakewood CC in Rockville, Maryland and is founder of the Wayne Defrancesco Golf Learning Center (WDGLC). Wayne has spent countless hours analyzing some of the greatest golf legends both past and present in order to teach his Pivot Compression Golf Swing technique. Visit www.waynedefrancesco.com and you will spend hours watching FREE videos and reading articles created with the sole purpose to help people become the best golfers they can be. Become a better ball striker with Wayne's Pivot Compression Golf Swing DVD: www.compressiongolf.com

28 Comments

28 Comments

  1. Big GG

    Apr 2, 2021 at 1:57 pm

    There is always no mention of the fact that Hogan did not write 5 lessons.

  2. Art Gula

    Aug 29, 2018 at 7:52 pm

    Hi Wayne , I’ve been playing golf for 50 years and my beliefs and swing are comprised of nothing but Mr Hogan. From the stance, grip, rotation , body and finish. I maintain a 0 & 1 handicap in 3 leagues. Thanks
    ART GULA

  3. Dan Forant

    Aug 6, 2017 at 6:25 am

    Wow after playing 40 years shooting high 70’s/low 80’s, the long thumb deal has worked wonders for my game gaining control and distance since being in the 70’s age bracket. The short thumb actually shortened my clubhead arc length.

  4. Steve Wozeniak

    Aug 1, 2017 at 4:40 pm

    Long article for an easy subject……his set up changed his grip. Once he learned how to set up correctly he started to feel the forces in the swing. As far as the long and “short” thumb, hello, put your left hand on the club and now push your thumb down and long……TENSION. He learned to just simply hold the club in the fingers like an athlete tension free. After setting up correctly he started to feel the inner and outer forces working, half a left arm and wishing he had three right hands when he wanted to hit it hard. He NEVER felt this before in his old set up and swing. And he DID NOT dig it out of the dirt he learned this from my Coach. Who also taught this to Claude Harmon, Jackie Burke, Jack Grout and many others that wanted to listen.

    Steve Wozeniak PGA

  5. Bob Pegram

    Aug 1, 2017 at 2:55 pm

    I recently read a reference to Ken Venturi’s comments on Hogan’s swing. He mentioned that Hogan was a “knuckle-dragger,.” In other words, he had extremely long arms in relation to his body size. Venturi said there are some recommended positions in The Five Fundamentals that are impossible for a person with shorter arms to get into.
    Other item: I wonder if, after Hogan’s accident, he had pains that told him when he was swing the right way versus the wrong way. That would sure tell him immediately when his swing was wandering from the ideal swing he wanted.

  6. Howard Clark

    Jul 31, 2017 at 2:49 pm

    Wouldn’t be nearly as interesting today, with the ProV1x which you can’t hook no matter how poor your swing or grip.

    • TeeBone

      Jul 31, 2017 at 6:33 pm

      Funny, I still see plenty of “banana” slices out there.

  7. Lou

    Jul 31, 2017 at 11:05 am

    The one thing that Ben failed to adequately give up in his writings and interviews was the real “secret” to his stroke and that is he actually had a golf swing. When compared to another with a real swing, Bobby Jones, it is obvious to the practiced eye the left shoulder was the center of the swing and the hands did little other than guide the club face. The grip adjustments he made were necessary to move the direction from the left side of the fairway to the right, just as so often claimed. Wayne did a fine job of showing the evolution of Ben’s grip and that is all he claimed with the headline. Thanks Wayne! Ike

  8. Wayne DeFrancesco

    Jul 31, 2017 at 9:13 am

    I would say that Hogan had two main problems he addressed over time. One was the length of his swing, especially with the driver, and the other was the tendency to hook the ball at inopportune times. His early swings with the longer clubs were extremely long, looking almost John Daly -like in the 30’s. I believe that he felt that the shortened left thumb helped him gain control of the top of his swing, although if you watch his swings through all his major wins his driver swing was consistently past parallel. In the drawings you reference in The Five Lessons Hogan’s actual swing resembles the “If his grip is faulty” picture much more than the “if his grip is correct” picture. Hogan’s actual driver swing never was short of parallel as depicted in the book. Part of the reason that he continued to swing the club past parallel has to do with his solution to his hooking problem, which was to roll the face open and cup his wrist from the start of the swing all the way to the top. This left forearm pronation combined with left wrist dorsiflexion creates additional wrist cock and procuces an increased angle between the left arm and the shaft. Hogan’s backswing had a “flinging” aspect to it where he started with a slight handle drag then “threw” the clubhead against his hands in mid-backswing before “catching” the clubhead and interrupting the backswing with the reversal of the right pelvic clockwise rotation to counter-clockwise. With the left wrist cupped and the face fanned open the change of direction produced a large amount of clubhead lag. Hogan was very strong but of slight build at less than 140 pounds and found that the speed he could create with this action kept him hitting the ball long enough to compete while gaining overall control. As Hogan got older and his trunk thickened he lost some of his trunk mobility and ability to move his pelvis, so when you look at swings from the Hogan vs. Snead match and the 1967 Masters you see a much shorter version but the same general characteristics.

  9. Jeff Martin

    Jul 30, 2017 at 12:17 pm

    Game effort by Wayne, but, like many others, he has fallen prey to the timeline error contained in the August 8, 1955 Life magazine article that incorrectly placed the discovery of the “secret” in early 1946. That timing makes no sense given his playing record in 1945 and 1946, which was exemplary; his play throughout 1947, which was erratic; and the fact that Hogan didn’t win either, let alone both, of George May’s 1946 events, as he recalled he did after finding the “secret”, but did win the 1947 World Championship in September, after a break of a couple weeks (the other George May event was played earlier in the year). More importantly, contemporaneous accounts, for example, the January 10, 1949 Time Magazine cover story, which places the discovery in 1947, and published comments by Henry Cotton (who visited the US in the fall of 1947 for the Ryder Cup and spent time with Hogan discussing Ben’s plan to adopt a “power fade” that winter), make clear that the changes that comprised the “secret” were not implemented until the 1947-48 off-season. Video of swings from 1948 confirm this, revealing a weaker left hand grip than found in the “Power Golf” illustrations and companion film footage.

  10. Dave Mason

    Jul 30, 2017 at 9:59 am

    Very interesting read. When I started playing I read Power Golf and Five Lessons and this is a great refresher, reminding me of the time I’d study the grip portions of those books.

  11. D'oh

    Jul 30, 2017 at 3:00 am

    You obviously do not or have not understood the cupping of the left wrist part in regards to the top of the swing because you’re a dunce

    • Lloyd

      Jul 30, 2017 at 5:16 pm

      Wayne D should step in and respond to Obs good questions otherwise the dumb trolls win.

    • Ude

      Jul 30, 2017 at 8:01 pm

      Forget about asking questions. This is a show-and-tell forum for sycophants and gearheads.

    • D'oh!

      Jul 31, 2017 at 10:15 am

      It’s a Secret. That’s the point. D’oh!

  12. Sid Trench

    Jul 30, 2017 at 2:51 am

    Very informative article which reminded me of much that I had forgotten much. Thank you

  13. The Hammer of Truth

    Jul 29, 2017 at 4:17 pm

    He wasn’t that good, he didn’t have to beat anyone
    Nelson was better but left the game and Snead didn’t do much till later in his career.
    All the real men were fighting wars.

    • Jeff Martin

      Jul 30, 2017 at 11:41 am

      During WWII, Hogan left the tour in August 1942 and did not rejoin full-time until August 1945. He beat everyone in 1940, 1941, 1942, 1946 and 1948, when he was leading money winner and had lowest stroke average each year. Nelson’s three big years were 1939, 1944 and 1945 (the latter two when all the real men were fighting wars); Snead’s big years were 1938, 1949, 1950 (1949 and 1950 being the year of Hogan’s accident and his first year back) and 1955.

  14. Maslie

    Jul 29, 2017 at 11:47 am

    It would be even better if we can see bit deeper on Hogan clubs evolution, particularly his club length and lie too. Great read!

    • johnnied

      Jul 31, 2017 at 12:58 pm

      Watched an interesting video blurb on the golf channel about hogan’s clubs. it seems that he used a steel wire down the grip as a reminder for his weakend grip. The wire was about the size of a coat hanger which would produce a fairly sizable rib. The way it was positioned there was no way you could hook it. was that his “secret”?

      • Jeff Martin

        Aug 1, 2017 at 8:06 am

        I think it was at least part of his “secret” because, according to Byron Nelson, Hogan had a tendency to re-grip the club stronger during a round. The “reminder” rib would let him know if he was re-gripping. I have gripped a couple of Hogan’s drivers at the USGA museum that had the reminder, and the rib places the left hand into a weak, one-knuckle position.

        • Darrin

          Aug 4, 2017 at 10:01 am

          Hogan was 5’8″ tall and 140 lbs in his prime. Sure he was very strong for his size, kind of like a gymnast I suppose, but ‘big thick meaty hands?” Maybe relative to his size but compare to someone who is 6’0 190 lbs probably not.
          But go ahead and keep spinning your narrative, it’s quite fun to witness how your brain works. And please, remember to take your meds.

        • Jeff Martin

          Aug 5, 2017 at 9:55 am

          The grips weren’t “thin”, felt like they were maybe built up a wrap or two. The grip rib was to help prevent him from unconsciously re-gripping it stronger. I’m sure he knew where to put them without the reminder…

  15. Mums

    Jul 29, 2017 at 11:43 am

    Very well done. Thanks!

  16. ROY

    Jul 29, 2017 at 11:07 am

    Great read!!!!

  17. Tom F. Stickney II

    Jul 29, 2017 at 8:32 am

    Fantastic analysis Wayne…great read as well. Why you’re one of the best in our industry!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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