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Scoring Practice: How I took my success on the range to the course

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This is what typically happens with me. I hit an extra large bucket on the range and I am fairly consistent and feel confident. I put in 30 minutes chipping and 30 minutes putting. I think, “I’ve got this!” Then I go out on the course and make 7 pars, a birdie, 3 triples and two doubles on simple par 3s.

nemesis shots, 80BREAKR.com

Front 9, ‘nemesis’ shots on a couple of holes.

80BREAKR golf scorecard app example

Back 9, after blocked practice.

What happened? Why did great practice not translate to consistent play on the golf course? The problem is that my practice sessions consist of one club that I hit many times in a row, called “blocked practice.” I also discount the first worm-burner or occasional duck-hook to not being “warmed up.”

When I warm up, I typically move through my bag sequentially, ensuring after a dozen or so shots that I am satisfied with my ability with each club. Next, I go to the putting green, and before I know it, I’m lipping out 50-foot putts and draining 8-footers from every angle. Feeling like the Champions Tour is probably Google-searching me, I go to the chipping area, where 30 minutes later, Mickelson would be impressed. I am SO ready! I confidently walk to the first tee, and on the second hole I barely hole that 3-footer for a triple bogey.

After a round like that, I started to think about how an actual round of golf works. I make a couple of practice swings, then have one chance, with one ball, to execute a good shot with one club. I then walk for 4 or 5 minutes, decide how far I need to hit the ball, select a club, take a couple of practice swings, and again have one chance with one club and one time to hit a good shot. A few minutes later, one chance at a pitch, then one chance to lag putt, then (hopefully) one chance at a short putt. Now I’m on the second tee box. I last hit my driver about 15 minutes ago, and perhaps the image of a big slice is burned into my memory. I take two practice swings, then have one chance, with one ball to hit a good shot.

Think about the less common shots. A green-side bunker, or the flop shot, or the long, uphill bump-and-run. You might have just a few of those in a four-hour round of golf. You still only have one chance with one ball to make a decent shot, but you haven’t done it in hours or days. The point is, I realized I tend to practice totally differently than I play, then wonder why I was not able to score… or can score on half the holes in a round of golf, but not the other half. I have reasonable consistency, but I can’t seem to take it out to the course and post a better score. “How can I be more effective,” I wondered.

Five years ago, I played golf with a friend that had been playing a couple of months at Torrey Pines. He almost beat me the first time we played, and I’ve played for decades! I was shocked, and determined to improve. I started downloading golf apps, but I was frustrated with all of them because they were so cumbersome to use. I found that I was focusing on using the app, not my golf game, and playing more slowly as a result. Therefore I decided to design and built my own app. In ended up calling it 80BREAKR, and I wanted it to have the best scorecard as the core, as well as an integrated game improvement mode modeled after spreadsheets I developed trying to improve with my friend at Torrey Pines.

Since my app has an easy way to track the quality of my shots on the golf course, it is equally effective on the range. Using this feature in my app, an idea came to me that I call Scoring Practice. It’s not very fast, and I get some strange looks at the practice area, but it is extremely effective. I go to the range, and after warming up like I would for a regular round of golf, I pretend to play a round of golf. I use an iPad and an app, but it works fine with a piece of paper and a pencil. I pick my most frequently played golf course, and pretend I’m walking around that particular course. When I start, I imagine I’m on the first tee and do my normal routine. I imagine the fairway, pick markers on the range that are trouble left, sand traps right, etc., and then play the shot.

I carefully note how far I hit that shot and if it lands in the fairway, left, right, and project what kind of shot and distance I needed next. I characterize shots as Good, OK, or Bad, and enter how far from the hole I would estimate I am for my next shot.

characterize shots on the 80breakr golf scorecard app

On the range, I pick my Good, OK, and Bad Targets

Here’s how I last played that hole in Scoring Practice. After my “drive,” I picked up my clubs and walked to the far edge of the driving range. The first shot was in the fairway (per the markers I picked before the tee shot), so I estimated I needed an 8 iron to the green. I took out my 8 iron and selected the size of the green with features or markers on the driving range. I took my practice swings, and then I hit one 8 iron shot noting if it was “on the green,” and if not, how far off the green the shot ended up. Then, I picked up my clubs and range balls and walked to the chipping area. I dropped one ball about as far away from the green as I imagined I was after my 8-iron shot. Next, I placed it for the kind of shot I would be facing on the imaginary course. For instance, I imagined I missed the green right, which has an uphill pitch to a close pin location. Therefore, I selected the wedge I would normally take, selected my landing spot, took a couple of practice swings, and hit one shot, one time to that pin, noting how far from the pin the ball ended up.

scoring practice pitch, using the 80BREAKR golf scorecard app

First hole approach short-sided, on upslope

Now, I was on the green of that imagined first hole for this Scoring Practice round of golf. I took out my putter and walked to the practice putting green and set the ball down as far away and on as similar of a slope as possible for the result of the previous pitch. I did my normal ball-marking routine, set up, practice stroke, and then hit the putt. If I missed, I would finish putting as if this were actually the first hole on my favorite course, and I would record each shot and characterize if they were Good, OK, or Bad.

pitch shot results using scoring practice with the 80BREAKR golf scorecard app

Actual distance left after pitch. It was an “OK” shot.

One hole was completed on my imaginary round. Next, I picked up my clubs and range balls and walked back to one side of the driving range. I then imagined the look of hole No. 2, and picked targets again for trouble left, right, and continued in this manner. I recorded the quality of every shot, and I made my way around the imaginary first nine holes of my favorite course this way one shot at a time.

I usually leave my bag right in the center of the practice facility

I usually leave my bag right in the center of the practice facility

It goes faster than a normal round, and sometimes I’ll leave the bag at the middle of the practice facility and just grab a new club and put the previous one back in on my way by.

So how did Scoring Practice work for me? The reason I came up with this idea was that every time I got to the fourth hole at a local course, it would typically be the first 7 iron of the round (or week). Routinely, I would pull this shot into the hazard left, top it into the stream in front of the tee and get a big score. It occurred to me that my 7-iron practice of hitting 30 in a row was completely different than having one chance on the par-3 fourth.

First Scoring Practice Matched On-Course Problem!

First Scoring Practice Matched On-Course Problem!

Shown above is an imaginary round played using Scoring Practice for the same course. Identical results! I knew I was on to something. I did scoring practice for this course two more days in a row, and then on the third day I actually played the first few holes late in the afternoon. I hit a decent 7 iron on the third hole! Why does this work? From this Golf Digest article, apparently there’s science behind the idea of “random” practice. Although this isn’t exactly random, it does focus your brain on changing shots at the same pace as on the golf course.

scoringpractice15

After just three days using Scoring Practice on my local course, my “Nemesis ” hole was conquered!

What are the other benefits I found from Scoring Practice? Very interesting things started to happen while practicing. All of a sudden, I was facing “real” situations, like a 10-foot birdie putt at the range with only one chance to make it. I was facing what felt like a real 4-foot, par-saving putt, and trying to recover from a poor bump and run. I realized I was actually practicing scoring situations, practicing my pre-shot routine, practicing reading putts, practicing alignment, and actually making a difference in my game!

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Thomas Stewart is a seasoned Mechanical Engineer, with 22 U.S. patents for computer design across three high-tech companies for more than two decades, and is also an avid life-long golfer. In 2012, Tom decided he better improve when his friend that had been playing for just a few months almost beat him playing 18 holes at Torrey Pines. Searching the app store for golf apps, he downloaded a dozen of them and tried them all. Not only did they not have an easy way to track nor improve at golf, they were absolutely terrible at keeping score. How could these companies over-look the most fundamental need on the golf course, the scorecard? In 2014, Tom used his engineering background, took the spreadsheet formulas he used to help focus his practice sessions, replicated the ease-of-use of the paper golf scorecard and designed the best golf app available: 80BREAKR® By January 2015, the app was launched and the feedback was fantastic. In 2016 inline-scorecard GPS, automatic handicap posting, and betting modes were added, and the app is growing in popularity and use all over the world. At the PGA Merchandise Show in Orlando in January 2017, the Gold-Label 80BREAKR semi-custom app was launched allowing golf courses to quickly and cost effectively create their own semi-custom branded golf app and leverage the ease of use and features of 80BREAKR®. Currently, we also offer the 80BREAKR golfer network to enable golf courses to provide a better golfer experience and connect with their golfers directly to their phones and are finalizing the android version for release to Google Play.

13 Comments

13 Comments

  1. ooffa

    Jul 2, 2017 at 4:23 pm

    Everything in your post is wrong.

  2. Jack

    Jun 30, 2017 at 10:01 am

    Playing on a simulator with movable platform and rough and a cheap sand bunker doesn’t really help though and that’s even a step bone this. It’s still too easy.

  3. T

    Jun 29, 2017 at 3:07 am

    As a teacher, I get asked this all the time: “How does beating balls on a flat range help me when I get out to a real course with slopes and hills and I have to hit those shots but I have no idea how to?”
    Yes. The only real way to practice those full swing shots from tricky sloped lies, also with tricky thick lies on a slope, is go out there and practice those on the course. Until you conquer those tricky shots, it’s hard to break 80, unless you can find the fairway with your drive 9 out of 10 times on to safe, relatively flat areas on the fairway.
    Either that, or, you must get your arm and hand strengths up. Be ready to brace for hard hits and still be able to keep the face square. That’s more important than just going through the bag. How hard can you grip the club and how hard can you beat the ball with the shortest swings and still hit it really square and with enough speed? Henry Cotton would have told you it’s more important to beat the tyre and learn to hang onto the club that hard and develop strength before you start to beat balls meaninglessly. Most people can’t control their clubhead because they’re too weak to hold on through the tough impacts.

  4. Denny Jones

    Jun 28, 2017 at 3:29 pm

    Another nice way to practice if the putting and or chipping green are in close proximity. Several courses I play have two separate greens, one for putting and another for chipping. This approach would not be practical at theses courses.

    I was interested but found that this is “click-bait” for iOS.

  5. Tom

    Jun 28, 2017 at 2:53 pm

    I try to do the best I can with the technique that’s burned into my neuro-muscular system for the last few decades. I’m not talking about taking a change in my swing from the range to the course in a few hours, just a mental tune-up to help me better face the on-course challenge. YMMV.

  6. Mat

    Jun 28, 2017 at 2:03 pm

    I found this to be an interesting read and I am do something similar in my practice sessions.
    I would be very interested in knowing how you created your app as I have a similar Idea that I have been toying with for a while that makes practice fun and challenging.
    Regards.

  7. Edge of Lean

    Jun 28, 2017 at 1:08 pm

    Retired IndE here. Agree, this is logical advice, and very practical and useful. Good article. Why so many haters?

  8. Daniel

    Jun 28, 2017 at 12:00 pm

    Good concept for sure. The best practice then is to play a round or 9 holes as if it’s a real comp game? There’s a time and place for practicing your swing and other techniques at the range and practice facilities. Only one place to practice golf… the golf course.

  9. The dude

    Jun 28, 2017 at 10:36 am

    Bingo…

  10. Radim Pavlicek

    Jun 28, 2017 at 2:07 am

    Nice read. I downloaded the app from iTunes Store and will try it.

  11. Speedy

    Jun 27, 2017 at 6:14 pm

    Basics and good tempo, that’s all you need.

  12. Adam

    Jun 27, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    I’ve been practicing this way after my old swing coach suggested it maybe 12 years ago. Not every time, as there are certainly practice sessions where I’ll work on one thing/club exhaustively.
    When “game practicing”, I’m not as thorough as you are, but I will go through holes 1-18 and hit every shot that I would outside of putts and bunkers. (Shot from the rough are “cheated”, as well)
    Funny enough, I do this routinely at Torrey and use basically the same lines that you illustrated in the downrange shot in the article.
    Strongly recommend this method as one for the last practice day before a tournament/outing/serious round. At that point in time, you want to get your mind acclimated to playing golf, not fixing your swing.

  13. Bishop

    Jun 27, 2017 at 5:08 pm

    This is a great suggestion! I actually already use Random Practice, to be able to better “Gamify” while on the range. However, the addition of keeping score though writing my shots, and then the implementation of using the chipping and putting green, as well as the walk to and from would really help further.

    Thanks!

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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