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Mark Crossfield reviews Cobra’s King Forged One-Length Irons

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In this video, I review Cobra’s new King Forged One-Length irons on the course. The irons are the same model used by the PGA Tour player Bryson DeChambeau, who worked with Cobra to develop the single-length clubs.

Watch this video to see how the single-length irons — each of which is the length of a 7 iron — perform in my gap testing, and what I think of Cobra’s latest forged irons.

Related: Learn more about Cobra’s King Forged One-Length irons

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Mark Crossfield has been coaching golf for more than 20 years, and has enjoyed shaping the digital golf world with fresh, original and educated videos. Basically, I am that guy from YouTube. You can connect with Mark on Periscope (4golfonline) and Snapchat (AskGolfGuru), as well through the social media accounts linked below.

40 Comments

40 Comments

  1. Bo Bigelow

    Jan 19, 2017 at 1:43 am

    Great concept that helps simplify the game. I think single length irons will certainly help most amateur golfers strike the ball more solidly and much more consistently which will lead to better scores and therefore more fun and possibly a little faster play on the course. All of these things can benefit golf and could possibly bring more interest and more people to golf. Also, I have a bad back from years of athletics and I am going to try a set to see if they help me by not having to bend as much at address with short irons such as 9 – pw and gw.

    Thank you for a great review of single length irons, Bo

  2. John Z

    Nov 5, 2016 at 10:17 pm

    Actually can’t wait to give them a try

  3. GolfMyWay

    Nov 4, 2016 at 2:13 am

    So, I hit the One Lengths today.
    Hit the 4, 7 & PW.
    They’re all the same length, same weight. That KBS FLT shaft.
    I found something very interesting, and I think you will too.
    What if you’re not a very good ball striker? I’m ok, a decent player, but I definitely blade-hit a few with each one, not so flush, you know what I mean? Just bladed them a bit to not catch enough grooves, may be just the bottom two. Guess what happened? I hit the 4 and the 7 almost the same distance, only about 7 yards apart. And the PW was only 10 yards behind. The 7 iron went about 185 yards, on the bladed hit. Know what I’m getting at?
    What I’m getting at is, for people who are not very good ball strikers, now their distance control will be all over the place. At least with standard lengths, if you mishit a little, that bladed hit, because the shaft lengths differ, the short clubs only went as far as the shaft length will allow it, and the long irons the same, so you could expect to have that difference. Now that the shafts are all the same lengths and the headweights are the same, by blading you basically almost have the same shot with every club. That will be a huge problem.
    Even on flushed shots, the 4 iron for me only went to 192 total, when I normally hit my own normal forged 4 iron to about 210. The one-length 7 went to 180, when I hit my own to about 175. Same with the PW, I hit it to about 150, but my own only goes 135. The discrepancy here with the one-length is due to its softer shaft for my feel, versus my own X-stiff shaft. I think I was spinning the 4 iron too much in the one-length and smashing the 7 iron too fast with the flexible FLT shaft.
    It felt strange to hit a 4 iron so short. And the PW so long with the long shaft.
    It’s not for me. The mishits would be too scary, I would fly them way too far with the shorter clubs. And the tighter distance gaps and the long irons being too short are a real problem.
    I don’t think putting in my own shaft will solve that problem. I’d end up wanting to weigh the 4 iron head heavier and the PW lighter so I can have less momentum into the ball to control the flight. At that point I might as well just use the standard, traditional, variable length set.

    • Mat

      Nov 24, 2016 at 3:05 am

      I’ve hit an 8-iron 236 before. Bladed shots are irrelevant. It’s like saying a hammer is crappy as a knife.

  4. Rimjob

    Nov 3, 2016 at 3:08 am

    Yeah,, like Smizzle did. So he can devote his time to typing drivel on WRX

  5. Kevin

    Nov 2, 2016 at 8:03 pm

    Nice! I like the idea of a shorter-shafted 4-iron. I could see those going into my bag!

  6. Steve S

    Nov 2, 2016 at 6:35 pm

    I’ve played with single length irons(Pinhawks) and found them to be ok. I’m not sure that they helped me much but I was fighting other swing issues and a back problem when I played them. It was nice to be able to set up the same for all irons. I think I’d like to try the 4 thru 7 single length again. Then use 8 thru wedges with the “standard” lengths. Might be fun now that my swing is better.

  7. Jeff

    Nov 2, 2016 at 6:19 pm

    Nice review, I am intrigued by these. I thought at first the concept makes sense in the longer clubs but I was cynical about the shorter irons and wedges. It appears they just might work! Thanks

  8. Dave r

    Nov 2, 2016 at 6:00 pm

    Think this would be good for young golfers just starting out , they are not all up on sponsorship what pro are hitting . And with minds like sponges it will probably work very well. Has any club producer tried this on for size ,work with a couple for a year and find out the results . Use the not the real pill for the problem and you might be surprised by all the negativity.

  9. RthrGlf

    Nov 2, 2016 at 1:38 pm

    According to comments, there are still numerous variables like swing weight that prevent these clubs from being viable single-length alternative. The only single-length iron system that has been perfected over the years is 1irongolf.com. David Lake seems to cover all the bases when it comes to single length irons, such as same weight, offset, as well as simple fitting system. However, whenever there’s a new single length offering, 1irongolf’s success is never mentioned, just the failures from the distant past.

    • 300 Yard Pro

      Nov 6, 2016 at 10:08 pm

      Davis Lake clubs are total garbage. They feel like kid’s K-Mart clubs. That’s why they are never mentioned.
      The Sterlings and the Cobras are your only options.

  10. Tom Newcomb

    Nov 2, 2016 at 12:57 pm

    Would give them a try.

  11. jerry uritescu

    Nov 2, 2016 at 5:37 am

    I do like the idea of one length. It makes perfect sense to me.

  12. Mark

    Nov 2, 2016 at 1:13 am

    I’ve been intrigued by these irons for a while. The gapping between irons would be my only issue. I would love to see what I could do with a set. My current irons are, Wilson FG4 with +1/2 x100 shafts. Jumbomax large grips.

  13. Lloyd Walker

    Nov 2, 2016 at 12:48 am

    as im slowlng getting a bit long in the tooth if this can make it easier on me and i can be still competitive i will purchase a set , than you , lloyd

  14. KP3

    Nov 2, 2016 at 12:46 am

    Also, that is kind of what Sergio does with his driver, shorter and heavier, like a 3 wood.

  15. KP3

    Nov 2, 2016 at 12:44 am

    I would be interested in mixing this idea just in the long irons. Regular set up to 5 iron, then 3 and 4 iron at 5 iron length and weight. Maybe even a 2 iron.

  16. Jo Mil

    Nov 1, 2016 at 9:01 pm

    I will be steering clear of any single length iron set until someone has a fitting system that will tell me what MY optimal single length is, shaft weight and flex, head weight and correspoding swing weight, lie angle, lofts, and bounce. I am not average and don’t care to be, so a one sized fits all approach does not interest me. I will wait for the company that built the irons to help Bryson win the NCAA and US Am to release their system. If it is anything like their other systems and clubs, they are focused on fitting and catering to the individual, not the masses.

  17. Jo Mil

    Nov 1, 2016 at 8:47 pm

    in the absence of any type of fitting system that will tell me what MY optimal single length for all clubs is, shaft weight and flex, head weight and corresponding swing weight, lie angle, bounce, and lofts, I will be steering clear of this all together. Another attempt at catering to the “average person” and quite frankly, I am not average and care to be. I’ll wait for the company that built single length irons for Bryson when he won the NCAA’s and US Am to release their system. If it is like anything else they do, they will have thought about fitting to the individual rather than the masses.

    • 300 Yard Pro

      Nov 6, 2016 at 9:44 pm

      Tom Wishon Sterlings. Never heard of them? Do you even golf bro?

  18. Snowman

    Nov 1, 2016 at 8:14 pm

    I suggest folks stop worrying about integrating “woods” and wedges that are longer/shorter in length.. You will still get the benefit (if you decide there is a benefit for you) of 1 length on all your full iron shots, e.g. 4 thru GW, and that could be huge in terms of improving your ball striking and GIR which is a key for reducing your Score. I remember the old Tommy Armour EQL irons and have wondered for a while why no OEM had come out with a modern single length iron, since the tech. now makes it more practical to get the distance gapping right….which Cobra and Wishon claim they have done. The Only reason this doesn’t make sense for almost everyone is if the distance gaps are not right, that is the key thing to examine; otherwise I think these would make the game easier for most golfers.

    • 300 Yard Pro

      Nov 6, 2016 at 9:45 pm

      Exactly. The benefit of the one length system comes from a full set. Not from just using 4-6.

  19. Jt

    Nov 1, 2016 at 7:54 pm

    Great way review! You have me seriously considering these irons!

  20. leo vincent

    Nov 1, 2016 at 7:53 pm

    The head weight numbers were confusing.I think he was trying to say how much the weight differed from a standard head weight of the same number.

  21. nelson Radcliffe

    Nov 1, 2016 at 6:29 pm

    Love the idea of one length irons. I have struggled lately with irons, particularly long irons.

  22. Jo Mil

    Nov 1, 2016 at 6:10 pm

    Gaps between clubs were 24 yds, 6 yds, 14 yds, 14 yds, 7 yds, 10 yds, 5 yds. Correct me if I am wrong, but that doesn’t sound good at all. Also, if each head weight is different and the shafts are all the same weight, wouldn’t you have 8 different swing weights and wouldn’t the different weights create different bend profiles and load on the shafts, therefore resulting in very inconsistent results. Unless of course, the mention of different head weights was an indication of what they had to do to get each of the standard heads to be all the same. Changing head weights to create different ball flights seems like a really bad idea to me.

  23. Peter

    Nov 1, 2016 at 4:26 pm

    Anyone who is just starting to play golf would find great benefits with these irons as without doubt the majority of new golfers struggle with shafts. longer than 7/8 irons.

  24. Thus

    Nov 1, 2016 at 4:17 pm

    Great review mark, I have put my name down for a set when the do get released here in New Zealand.
    The idea of one length makes a lot of sense and like you said about “committing” to the shot I feel once you have crossed that bridge you will play great golf with them.

  25. Shaun

    Nov 1, 2016 at 3:54 pm

    Wasn’t considering them, but the review definitely made me curious. Interesting to see Mark’s surprise at the feel and results.

  26. Tom A

    Nov 1, 2016 at 3:52 pm

    Good review and thanks for taking the time to share with us.
    I’m sure after a little getting use to these they would work fine for many people but I prefer to stay with standard lengths.

  27. MP-4

    Nov 1, 2016 at 2:49 pm

    I wonder if Fowler will eventually move to a blade version of these considering he prefers irons that are 0.5″ short of standard?

  28. RthrGlf

    Nov 1, 2016 at 2:34 pm

    Looks like Cobra has a great offering for one-length irons. The fitting should be easy. Just use the appropriate 7-iron length for all the clubs, assuming each club has same lie angle. What is the lie angle, anyway? Would love to win a set of these. Thanks for the review.

  29. Martyn Edwards

    Nov 1, 2016 at 2:07 pm

    Interesting logic….I am going to have to give these a serious look at

  30. Tom

    Nov 1, 2016 at 2:05 pm

    already half way through and mark posses some interesting question…… I’m startin to get nervous.

  31. Branson Reynolds

    Nov 1, 2016 at 1:50 pm

    Was the Cobra set better than the Wishon?

  32. Tom

    Nov 1, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    Great review. I particularly enjoyed how surprised Mark was when he liked these clubs.

  33. Paul Evans

    Nov 1, 2016 at 1:42 pm

    Have a look at Tom Wishon’s site on Google.

  34. Mike Zilis

    Nov 1, 2016 at 1:35 pm

    As a hack, I like the idea of shorter long irons and longer short irons. It’s nice to see them perform in the hands of a good player but I’d also like to see them tested by a high handicap player where the potential improvement might be more realized.

  35. Paul

    Nov 1, 2016 at 12:06 pm

    just curious but does anyone know where i can find the lofts on these irons? i doesn’t look like its up on Cobras website yet.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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