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Opinion & Analysis

Who will win the 2016 FedEx Cup, and why?

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Last week the GolfWRX Editors asked me, “Are there any statistical similarities between the FedEx Cup winners since the advent of the Playoff format?” Lot’s of work to do but, if I do it, could I use it to predict this year’s winner?

Background

The PGA Tour’s unique FedEx Cup playoff system, and large $10 million prize, was devised in 2005 specifically to incentivize Tiger Woods to play in more events. Tiger’s immense popularity had divided the PGA Tour into two tours: the Big Tour, made up of the events in which Tiger played, and the rest. Evidently, there was a large enough divide in TV ratings that it was hard to lure sponsors to non-Tiger events. Launched in 2007, the strategy worked! Tiger complied, and won two of the first three FedEx Cups.

Post-Tiger, the FedEx Cup continues to serve its purpose. Top players plan their schedules to finish in the top 125 in the FedEx Cup rankings and play in enough events to qualify for The Playoffs, but also conserve energy for the grind of the four-event, five-week playoff series. This year’s addition of the Ryder Cup in Week 6 no doubt played a role in Jordan Spieth’s decision to skip both the Olympics and his defense of the John Deere Championship.

My Research

Yes, there are some similarities in the FedEx Cup winners.

Players don’t need to win the Tour Championship in order to win the FedEx Cup, but it helps. Seven of the nine won the Tour Championship (the final event) to win the Cup. Exceptions occurred in 2009, when Tiger finished second in the Tour Championship but won the Cup, and in 2008, when Vijay Singh finished 22nd in the final event but still won the Cup. Vijay had won the first two playoff events (The Barclays and the Deutsch Bank Championship), giving him enough points to win WITHOUT even playing in the final event. The next year, a rule change was made to prevent that from happening again.

A prior win in their winning FedEx Cup season is evidently important.

  • Eight of the nine had at least one PGA Tour win prior to the Tour Championship. Jordan Spieth had a phenomenal 2015 with five prior wins, and Tiger showed exactly why the FedEx Cup was created with six prior wins in each of his winning years.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 12.07.35 PM

It helps to be ranked near the top in FedEx Cup points going into the Tour Championship. Six of the nine winners were ranked first or second, except:

  • Jim Furyk was ranked No. 11 in 2010.
  • Bill Haas was ranked No. 25 in 2011.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 12.01.50 PM

What about performance ranking in the two major parts of the game going into the final event?

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 12.00.56 PM

  • Strokes Gained Putting: On average 40 percent of the game.
  • Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: The other 60 percent of the game, or everything other than putting.
  • Seven of nine winners were ranked in the top 5 or better on the PGA Tour in one or more of these stats leading into the Tour Championship.

My Prediction

I am guessing that one needs to be in the top 15 in FedEx Cup points heading into this week’s Tour Championship to be in a position to win it all. OK, I get it that Bill Haas was No. 25 going in and won. This was a fluke. Heck, if he does not have that last-ditch, miraculous save from the water, he does not win.

First, let’s exclude the three players that did not have a win in the 2015-16 season.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 11.59.38 AM

Next, eliminate those not in the top-10 in one of the two major Strokes Gained performance rankings going into this week’s Tour Championship.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 11.58.48 AM

This leaves FIVE players that fit all the criteria, but only one can win. Here are my reasons for selecting the winner (Jordan Spieth) as well as my thinking on the other four.

Screen Shot 2016-09-19 at 11.57.36 AM

Click to enlarge.

Won’t the Tour Championship be interesting to watch this year? Let me know your thoughts in the comments section.

For a Strokes Gained analysis of your game, log onto www.shotbyshot.com.

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In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. Guia

    Sep 20, 2016 at 8:55 pm

    JD

  2. ooffa

    Sep 20, 2016 at 1:09 pm

    Hopefully anybody other than Patrick Reed. Oh and Bubba, Anyone else would be fine.

  3. Justin

    Sep 20, 2016 at 11:35 am

    I was thinking along similar lines Peter. I think Spieth would be an “out of nowhere” pick for some people (even though he’s won twice this year) because he wasn’t nearly as dominant this year as last year. It’s very difficult to keep up a string of dominance and that makes Tiger’s run even more remarkable. But I think the time is right for Jordan and he wants it the most. I think Spieth, DJ, Day finish 1,2,3 in that order. The absolute dream scenario for the Tour is that those 3 finish top 3 in any order. Very rarely do your stars all come together to battle it out to the end. It doesn’t happen in any other major sport unless your team happens to make it, and I think that’s why golf is so great.

    • cwt

      Sep 21, 2016 at 2:36 pm

      Haven’t looked at the stats, but it seems like Spieth doesn’t play as well when Day or Dustin are playing well. It kinda feels like he gets overpowered by those two when they are on their games and it gets in Spieth’s head. Certainly would like to see Spieth pull if off with one of those two in contention, but if Spieth is paired with one of them in the last group on Sunday, good luck.

  4. matt

    Sep 20, 2016 at 9:39 am

    Appreciate the analysis but what about no player has ever won back to back FEC. I think Patrick Reed wins it.

  5. Peter Sanders

    Sep 20, 2016 at 8:32 am

    Fun to watch. While I like Rory, he has struggled badly with his putting all year. His new putting coach fixed him and obviously pumped his confidence but let’s see if it continues. As you say Spieth has been inconsistent thru this year but I believe very motivated and working into form.

  6. Redx

    Sep 20, 2016 at 8:25 am

    Thank you for the analysis Peter.
    Personally I think DJ looks great. Seems to be dismissed only as it’s difficult to win back to back, however, in this case after the week rest the fatigue / expectation factor that usually intrudes in a quest for back to back wins is not present here. DJ Has great claims.

    Likewise I expect J-Day to be ready to go.
    Who knows which Rory will turn up and on these smaller greens complexes Scotty could fire up as a one off

    Personally I think it’s wide open. Can’t wait.

    Overall I think it’s wide open

    • Peter Sanders

      Sep 20, 2016 at 8:35 am

      Redx, very good point about the week off. I considered it and, as you say, chose to dismiss it. Bottom line, I think Jordan is the best putter on Tour.

  7. desmond

    Sep 20, 2016 at 8:02 am

    I see Rory over Spieth — Rory changed everything about his putting; Jordan is consistently inconsistent this year. At the same time, I like Spieth, but …

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans betting preview

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The PGA TOUR heads to New Orleans to play the 2023 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. In a welcome change from the usual stroke play, the Zurich Classic is a team event. On Thursday and Saturday, the teams play best ball, and on Friday and Sunday the teams play alternate shot.

TPC Louisiana is a par 72 that measures 7,425 yards. The course features some short par 4s and plenty of water and bunkers, which makes for a lot of exciting risk/reward scenarios for competitors. Pete Dye designed the course in 2004 specifically for the Zurich Classic, although the event didn’t make its debut until 2007 because of Hurricane Katrina.

Coming off of the Masters and a signature event in consecutive weeks, the field this week is a step down, and understandably so. Many of the world’s top players will be using this time to rest after a busy stretch.

However, there are some interesting teams this season with some stars making surprise appearances in the team event. Some notable teams include Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry, Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala as well as a few Canadian teams, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners.

Past Winners at TPC Louisiana

  • 2023: Riley/Hardy (-30)
  • 2022: Cantlay/Schauffele (-29)
  • 2021: Leishman/Smith (-20)
  • 2019: Palmer/Rahm (-26)
  • 2018: Horschel/Piercy (-22)
  • 2017: Blixt/Smith (-27)

2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Picks

Tom Hoge/Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)

Tom Hoge is coming off of a solid T18 finish at the RBC Heritage and finished T13 at last year’s Zurich Classic alongside Harris English.

This season, Hoge is having one of his best years on Tour in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach. In his last 24 rounds, the only player to top him on the category is Scottie Scheffler. Hoge has been solid on Pete Dye designs, ranking 28th in the field over his past 36 rounds.

McNealy is also having a solid season. He’s finished T6 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and T9 at the PLAYERS Championship. He recently started working with world renowned swing coach, Butch Harmon, and its seemingly paid dividends in 2024.

Keith Mitchell/Joel Dahmen +4000 (DraftKings)

Keith Mitchell is having a fantastic season, finishing in the top-20 of five of his past seven starts on Tour. Most recently, Mitchell finished T14 at the Valero Texas Open and gained a whopping 6.0 strokes off the tee. He finished 6th at last year’s Zurich Classic.

Joel Dahmen is having a resurgent year and has been dialed in with his irons. He also has a T11 finish at the PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass which is another Pete Dye track. With Mitchell’s length and Dahmen’s ability to put it close with his short irons, the Mitchell/Dahmen combination will be dangerous this week.

Taylor Moore/Matt NeSmith +6500 (DraftKings)

Taylor Moore has quickly developed into one of the more consistent players on Tour. He’s finished in the top-20 in three of his past four starts, including a very impressive showing at The Masters, finishing T20. He’s also finished T4 at this event in consecutive seasons alongside Matt NeSmith.

NeSmith isn’t having a great 2024, but has seemed to elevate his game in this format. He finished T26 at Pete Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, which gives the 30-year-old something to build off of. NeSmith is also a great putter on Bermudagrass, which could help elevate Moore’s ball striking prowess.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 LIV Adelaide betting preview: Cam Smith ready for big week down under

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After having four of the top twelve players on the leaderboard at The Masters, LIV Golf is set for their fifth event of the season: LIV Adelaide. 

For both LIV fans and golf fans in Australia, LIV Adelaide is one of the most anticipated events of the year. With 35,000 people expected to attend each day of the tournament, the Grange Golf Club will be crawling with fans who are passionate about the sport of golf. The 12th hole, better known as “the watering hole”, is sure to have the rowdiest of the fans cheering after a long day of drinking some Leishman Lager.  

The Grange Golf Club is a par-72 that measures 6,946 yards. The course features minimal resistance, as golfers went extremely low last season. In 2023, Talor Gooch shot consecutive rounds of 62 on Thursday and Friday, giving himself a gigantic cushion heading into championship Sunday. Things got tight for a while, but in the end, the Oklahoma State product was able to hold off The Crushers’ Anirban Lahiri for a three-shot victory. 

The Four Aces won the team competition with the Range Goats finishing second. 

*All Images Courtesy of LIV Golf*

Past Winners at LIV Adelaide

  • 2023: Talor Gooch (-19)

Stat Leaders Through LIV Miami

Green in Regulation

  1. Richard Bland
  2. Jon Rahm
  3. Paul Casey

Fairways Hit

  1. Abraham Ancer
  2. Graeme McDowell
  3. Henrik Stenson

Driving Distance

  1. Bryson DeChambeau
  2. Joaquin Niemann
  3. Dean Burmester

Putting

  1. Cameron Smith
  2. Louis Oosthuizen
  3. Matt Jones

2024 LIV Adelaide Picks

Cameron Smith +1400 (DraftKings)

When I pulled up the odds for LIV Adelaide, I was more than a little surprised to see multiple golfers listed ahead of Cameron Smith on the betting board. A few starts ago, Cam finished runner-up at LIV Hong Kong, which is a golf course that absolutely suits his eye. Augusta National in another course that Smith could roll out of bed and finish in the top-ten at, and he did so two weeks ago at The Masters, finishing T6.

At Augusta, he gained strokes on the field on approach, off the tee (slightly), and of course, around the green and putting. Smith able to get in the mix at a major championship despite coming into the week feeling under the weather tells me that his game is once again rounding into form.

The Grange Golf Club is another course that undoubtedly suits the Australian. Smith is obviously incredibly comfortable playing in front of the Aussie faithful and has won three Australian PGA Championship’s. The course is very short and will allow Smith to play conservative off the tee, mitigating his most glaring weakness. With birdies available all over the golf course, there’s a chance the event turns into a putting contest, and there’s no one on the planet I’d rather have in one of those than Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen +2200 (DraftKings)

Louis Oosthuizen has simply been one of the best players on LIV in the 2024 seas0n. The South African has finished in the top-10 on the LIV leaderboard in three of his five starts, with his best coming in Jeddah, where he finished T2. Perhaps more impressively, Oosthuizen finished T7 at LIV Miami, which took place at Doral’s “Blue Monster”, an absolutely massive golf course. Given that Louis is on the shorter side in terms of distance off the tee, his ability to play well in Miami shows how dialed he is with the irons this season.

In addition to the LIV finishes, Oosthuizen won back-to-back starts on the DP World Tour in December at the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritus Open. He also finished runner-up at the end of February in the International Series Oman. The 41-year-old has been one of the most consistent performers of 2024, regardless of tour.

For the season, Louis ranks 4th on LIV in birdies made, T9 in fairways hit and first in putting. He ranks 32nd in driving distance, but that won’t be an issue at this short course. Last season, he finished T11 at the event, but was in decent position going into the final round but fell back after shooting 70 while the rest of the field went low. This season, Oosthuizen comes into the event in peak form, and the course should be a perfect fit for his smooth swing and hot putter this week.

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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