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Finding the right wedge shaft for your game

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In the minds of many golfers, wedges are the most important clubs in the bag. As a fitter, I am always surprised how this belief conflicts with the amount of consideration golfers typically put into selecting their wedges. When asked why certain wedges are in their bag, most reply with something along the lines of, “Well, I’ve always just used this loft and grind,” “I’m not really sure” or “My buddy, who’s a scratch golfer, told me I need it.” For most, wedges are in an unfortunate race with the putter to win the unceremonious award of the clubs that help golfers the least.

Most people know there are wedges with multiple loft and bounce options available, even if they’re not quite sure what’s best for them. Very few, however, have ever thought about the shafts in their wedges. In this article, I’ll be showing you the importance of finding the proper shaft for the wedges in your bag by illustrating how different shafts can impact performance.

The goal of this test is not to make some generic recommendation that “you should be playing XXX shaft,” but rather to highlight the variance that can exist across different shafts. I encourage you to do your own testing with a qualified fitter, but if one is unavailable in your area, these themes might help find a good wedge shaft for you.

Testing Process

To conduct these tests, I selected three testers with low single-digit handicaps and relatively consistent swings. Any findings will only be amplified for higher-handicap golfers due to increased swing variability, and any shaft-to-shaft variations might have been hidden by this inconsistency.

We used an Edel Wedge fitting system because of the interchangeable hosel system and extensive shaft options. Each tester selected a 56-degree head with the bounce that fit them best. They then used the same wedge head on each of the six shafts we tested. The order the shafts was randomized for each golfer during the testing process.

The shafts represented some common wedge shafts and crossed multiple weights, flexes and EI profiles. Testers hit five shots at a target 100 yards away with each shaft, and all shots were measured with FlightScope.

The Data

Data: To start, I’m posting a table that shows summary results for each shaft per golfer (below). A couple of things to remember when reading this:

  1. All distances are in yards.
  2. All distances are carry distances.
  3. On lateral distances: negative numbers represent left of target, positive numbers right of target.
  4. Standard deviation shows the variance in the range with smaller numbers being better.

Full Testing Results

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

A lot to digest, right?

To help gauge shaft performance for each golfer, I created an additional table showing the ranges in carry distance and lateral dispersion. These numbers were then multiplied to calculate the total area covered by the five shots with each shaft. This is the single best summary stat I can think of to grade wedge performance.

Simplified Testing Results

Player_specific_wedge_shaft_results

Now we can start to see some things. 

  • Based on the average size of the dispersion area, Wes is the best wedge player. Sorry Mike and Nick, but I’m pretty sure you already knew this…
  • Distance control is where variation really shows up, and this is where the best wedge players differentiate themselves. Of the 18 player/shaft combinations we tested, there were only two where the carry distance range was less than the lateral range.
  • Each player did have a specific shaft that stood out, one with a dispersion area much smaller than the other options. There just wasn’t any consistency in shaft performance across the golfers.

Best and Worst Shafts for Each Tester

Best_and_worst_wedge_shafts

Green indicates the best wedge shaft for each player. Red indicates the worst.

Launch Angle and Spin Rate Rankings

The same variation is found when looking at launch angle and spin rates, with the shafts that produced the highest and lowest launch and spin numbers varying for each golfer. These tables are simple stack rankings, based on performance.

Wedge_Shaft_Launch_Angle

Wedge_shaft_spin_rate

  • One interesting correlation was that for two of the three golfers, the same shaft provided the smallest dispersion area and lowest launch angle. While not a hard and fast rule, it’s something to keep in mind when trying out wedge shafts.
  • The shafts that worked better for the testers weren’t necessarily the ones you would have guessed. The KBS C-Taper Lite 105R worked the best for Nick, who has an upright and aggressive swing. Wes has a flat, smooth swing and the relatively stiff and heavy True Temper DG Spinner Wedge+ shaft worked the best for him.

Two Big Takeaways

  1. Lighter and More Flexible is Probably Better. When selecting new or re-shafting your existing wedges, your best bet is to find a fitter with the proper experience and equipment to guide you through the options. If that’s not possible, a general trend shown here is that a shaft that’s lighter and a bit more flexible than what you’re using in your irons is a good bet.
  2. Enough about the Spin. Worrying about what wedge shaft creates the most spin should not be your top concern. Even though there was shaft-to-shaft variation in the spin produced, they all had enough to quickly stop the ball on the green. As good as these Edel wedges are, this is a consistent finding regardless of the brand we’re fitting. Finding the proper wedge head (loft, grind, bounce) and a shaft that helps your distance control should be your main focus when getting new wedges, not if one option gives you an extra hundred or two RPMs.

In our next article, we’ll talk more about selecting bounce and give you some tips on how to fit yourself if you can’t find a fitter with a proper wedge fitting system.

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Chris Wycoff is the owner of SwingFit, a custom club fitting and building studio in Hilton Head Island, SC. Prior to joining the golf world, Chris was a management consultant for over 7 years and brings a great deal of the data driven processes from that world into golf. SwingFit has spent the last 2 years with a Gears motion tracking system capturing thousands of swings and partnering with data scientists to research how clubs and human golf swings really interact. SwingFit was included on Golf Digest's list of 100 Best Clubfitters in America for 2015/16, 17/18 & 19/20 as well as Golf.com's list of 25 Elite Club Fitters in 2019 .

50 Comments

50 Comments

  1. Steve Lack

    Aug 28, 2016 at 11:25 am

    Softer tips must be why some golfers tip trim their wedge shafts to 8 iron specs?

  2. Ezra

    Aug 21, 2016 at 4:35 pm

    Absolute BS from a fitter trying to sell his services.

    • Steve S

      Aug 31, 2016 at 1:53 pm

      Agreed. Most of the articles I see on fitting are BS. Especially on drivers. Anyone schooled in physics and dynamics laughs at most of the articles. The reality is you want a shaft and grip that is as light and stiff as possible because any weight that is not in the club head does nothing to contribute to the force and momentum of the swing. By doing that then it’s a simple determination on loft of the club face and speed to determine maximum distance for you. This assumes that you have a reasonably decent swing arc and impact position. If not, you should work on that before worrying about “getting fit”.

      • John

        May 27, 2020 at 3:46 pm

        The dumbest comment ive ever read on any golf related subject, ever..
        Clearly, You are an utterly clueless mental midget

    • Steve S

      Aug 31, 2016 at 2:45 pm

      Agreed. Most fitting advice is BS. All these guys try to make this complicated. Without a decent repeatable swing arc all “fitting” does is TRY to compensate for your mistakes which never works in the long run….

  3. tlmck

    Aug 19, 2016 at 3:06 pm

    Same shafts as my irons and low bounce since the 1980’s has always worked well for me.

  4. Benny

    Aug 19, 2016 at 6:53 am

    Great article even though I wasn’t able to understand all the data. I feel I am a better wedge player than most and know through trial and error what works well. S400 shafts my buddy had which he added weights too, were way to delayed so my shots went right while whippy wedge shafts or too light pull and hook. But how does the “bounce” play into this data? For instance I have always hit higher bounce heads much longer than low bounce. Regardless of the shaft. Should this be a factor when getting wedges fit and wouldn’t the bounce also cause different dispersion and accuracey?

  5. baudi

    Aug 18, 2016 at 9:25 am

    Nice test and great article.
    To me it simply proves that a good player should find his right wedge shaft.
    Although I wouldn’t go as far stating lighter is better. (A softer shaft than in irons is definitely better. Tom Wishon did a great test on this one)
    Point here is that a wedge being a utility club is used on partial shots most of the time. That implies a slower rhythm. A slightly heavier but softer shaft will create a lively feel in the swing.

  6. Christian

    Aug 17, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    I have tried lighter shafts in wedges and initially they work well, especially during testing. After a while I start to get more misshits, a jerky/handsy action and even skulled shots. Back to S400s now, the most stable option for me. I game 130+ gram X in irons

    • Scott

      Aug 24, 2016 at 9:34 am

      I had the exact same results after moving to lighter shafts. Worked great until it didn’t. I get more feel with the heavier shaft.

  7. Chris Wycoff

    Aug 17, 2016 at 10:33 pm

    Thanks for all the great comments and feedback – happy to answer any questions anyone might have!

    • jason c geraci

      Aug 25, 2016 at 9:07 am

      Why didn’t you test shafts that are specifically designed for wedges?

  8. Chris Wycoff

    Aug 17, 2016 at 10:30 pm

    It’s not a specific wedge shaft, but we used in testing due to it’s flex profile. It it fits you, it’s a great shaft option.

  9. Brian T

    Aug 17, 2016 at 10:12 pm

    Why not include the s200 as it is comes in pretty much every wedge out there? At least a baseline of sorts, or give us an idea of where it stacks up against the others.

    • Chris Wycoff

      Aug 17, 2016 at 10:27 pm

      Hi Brian –

      That’s a good point, we used the S400 as it’s very close to the S200, only 3 grams heavier.

  10. Matt

    Aug 17, 2016 at 8:01 pm

    I’m all messed up X100 in irons KBS Tour X in wedges.

  11. NS Pro

    Aug 17, 2016 at 6:04 pm

    Why were no Modus3 wedge shafts included in this fitting?

    • Chris Wycoff

      Aug 17, 2016 at 10:07 pm

      There was no reason it was intentionally excluded, we just had to pick a reasonable number of shafts with varying weights, flexes and profiles to show the variations. Love the Modus shafts, they very well may be the best shafts for you.

  12. jf

    Aug 17, 2016 at 5:53 pm

    “Any findings will only be amplified for higher-handicap golfers due to increased swing variability, and any shaft-to-shaft variations might have been hidden by this inconsistency.”

    So shaft fitting for wedges is of little benefit to most hackers?

    • Chris Wycoff

      Aug 17, 2016 at 10:09 pm

      Hi JF – thanks for reading, it actually means that wedge fittings are even more important for “most hackers’. Better players are better equipped to deal with a shaft that isn’t fit for their swing. Hackers need all the help they can get!

  13. Larry

    Aug 17, 2016 at 2:39 pm

    I’m using reg flex KBS Tour 90 shafts in my irons. So the recommendation for my wedges is to soft step the same shafts to get lighter & more flexible. Correct?

    • Chris Wycoff

      Aug 17, 2016 at 10:11 pm

      Larry – the real recommendation is to find a fitter that allows you to test multiple options and find the best possible shaft. If that’s not possible, it’s very likely soft stepping your same shafts would produce better results than a stock wedge shaft.

  14. DB

    Aug 17, 2016 at 2:12 pm

    What do you mean by this? You don’t like a lot of wedge or putter designs? Or they have the least tech?

    “For most, wedges are in an unfortunate race with the putter to win the unceremonious award of the clubs that help golfers the least.”

    • explainer

      Aug 17, 2016 at 3:17 pm

      He means essentially “amateur/high-cap golfers just pick their wedges and putter willy nilly at a detriment to their score”

    • Chris Wycoff

      Aug 17, 2016 at 10:47 pm

      DB – unfortunately explainer is correct. Few golfers are fit for wedges and putters even though they are used for over half the shots in a round. The wedges and putter in most bags are working against the golfer, instead of for them.

  15. T-Bone

    Aug 17, 2016 at 1:56 pm

    Chris, How does a shaft create more spin than another?

    • Chris Wycoff

      Aug 17, 2016 at 10:12 pm

      T-Bone –

      Thanks for reading. Different shafts have different flex profiles that produce varying flight characteristics. For many, a soft tip section will produce a higher flight with higher spin.

      • T-Bone

        Aug 18, 2016 at 12:16 am

        OK, thanks. How many more RPM’s of spin could an average swing speed player expect when switching to a soft tip shaft?

        • Chris Wycoff

          Aug 18, 2016 at 9:29 am

          It’s really impossible to say. There are so many variables in the swing and how they interact with the shaft is what matters. It’s best to really find somewhere to try some options and find out for yourself.

  16. Tyler Brown

    Aug 17, 2016 at 1:10 pm

    Why were wedge specific shafts like KBS 610 and Hi Rev not tested?

    • Chris Wycoff

      Aug 17, 2016 at 10:32 pm

      Hi Tyler –

      If I were trying to make general recommendations on specific shafts, I definitely would have included them. The intent of this article was to simply illustrate how much variance there is between different shafts for different golfers. In an actual fitting, I do typically include those for testing.

  17. GMR

    Aug 17, 2016 at 1:09 pm

    How often do these guys hit 100yd 56* wedge shots on the course? Personally I find that to be a relatively challenging scoring shot because the length of swing necessary and amount of spin generated (can get ball caught up in wind, spon back 15 feet on green, etc) and would normally opt to hit a 1/2 52* shot instead, which comes in lower and still stops dead. Would be curious to see these numbers again for testers hitting controlled half shots (e.g. 56* to 85-90) as I suspect the variation in swings and shaft performance may not be so substantial…

    • Chris Wycoff

      Aug 17, 2016 at 10:17 pm

      GMR –

      Great question, these guys tend to hit that shot pretty frequently. We’ve found in fittings that the trend of using a lighter, softer shaft is actually amplified on half swing. The hypothesis is that these lighter, softer shafts still flex on easier swings and provide feel and feedback that is consistent with a full iron shot. For most, using an overly stiff shaft for these touch shots reduces feedback and consistency. Of course, there is not rule that applies for every golfer so it’s best to test for yourself if possible.

  18. Uncle Buck

    Aug 17, 2016 at 12:54 pm

    Bravo!

  19. Craig

    Aug 17, 2016 at 12:18 pm

    Great article, been looking for a good wedge shaft and this hits the bullseye. Thanks Chris.

  20. Ryan

    Aug 17, 2016 at 11:49 am

    Is there a reason you tested the shafts with a full to 3/4 wedge shot?
    Does the consistency with a specific shaft in your results continue with chips and pitches?

  21. desmond

    Aug 17, 2016 at 11:28 am

    Typically, wedge shafts are slightly heavier but more flexible than your iron shafts… hmmm.

    • desmond

      Aug 17, 2016 at 11:34 am

      But maybe it says that faster speed players with heavy irons shafts do not need heavy wedge shafts. And that makes sense in terms of one is not typically going full bore with a high lofted wedge.

      I can’t see a guy with 80g graphite shafts go to 75g graphite or steel in wedges. I see that guy (me) going from 85g graphite in R flex to 105g steel in R for greater precision, still keeping the shaft flex the same as irons. A golfer with stiff flex may want to go down slightly in flex.

      • Chris Wycoff

        Aug 17, 2016 at 10:18 pm

        Desmond – you may really want to try a lighter shaft in your wedges if possible. You might be pleasantly surprised.

        • desmond

          Aug 18, 2016 at 4:21 am

          Chris – I was fit for a KBS Hi Rev by an Edel fitter at 115g. My new Edel is fit with 110g Nippon Pro Modus Wedge 105. I think you’ll be surprised that if you get too light, you lose control, not to mention the balance of the club is affected. I am a strong wedge player. The lighter graphite iron shafts are for distance and less shock to body.

          • Chris Wycoff

            Aug 18, 2016 at 9:25 am

            Getting fit is the best answer – that’s why I was pretty careful to indicate these were trends, not solutions. Every player is different and what works for some definitely will not work for others. I’m glad you found the shafts that work the best for you!

  22. AllBOdoesisgolf

    Aug 17, 2016 at 11:06 am

    great article but I wouldn’t say their swings are consistent… maybe, after seeing the results, that’s why you used the qualifier of “relatively”. When you have 6mph difference from top to bottom is speed there are going to be different results.
    then again, we are not robots… it just surprised me that guys with low single digit handicaps can have such a large discrepancy of swing speeds.

  23. Leon

    Aug 17, 2016 at 11:05 am

    Or another thumb of rule: use one less flex shafts (the same model) of your irons for your wedges. For example, if you have DG S300 for the irons, consider to put the DG S200 or soft step the S300 once or twice for the wedges. In this way, the clubs will have the same feel and swing characteristics, and there will no transition gap between the irons and wedges.

    • Lee

      Aug 17, 2016 at 2:27 pm

      Agreed, I know one of Europe’s top fitter and this is exactly what he and many others are doing.

    • Chris Wycoff

      Aug 17, 2016 at 10:44 pm

      While it’s best to try multiple shafts and get fully fit, if that’s not possible, your rule of thumb is likely much better than a stock “Wedge” shaft.

  24. kyle

    Aug 17, 2016 at 10:23 am

    Agreed, terrific article. Thanks

  25. J

    Aug 17, 2016 at 10:05 am

    Seriously great article, well done!

    • DaveMac

      Aug 17, 2016 at 2:44 pm

      A big thumbs up from me, nice to see a data driven equipment performance article for a change. Really interesting conclusions.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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