Opinion & Analysis

Does the average golfer putt better or worse on FAST greens?

Published

8 years ago

Aug 2, 2016

A few months ago, the GolfWRX Editorial Team emailed me three story ideas. The first two have worked out quite well (you can read them here and here), so I decided to dig into the third. Being somewhat of a grizzled veteran, I thought that I knew the answer to the above question… but could I prove it by researching the ShotByShot.com 160,000+ round database?

From the very beginning, 27 years ago, I have enabled ShotByShot users the flexibility to categorize their rounds by what I believe to be meaningful filters. Two of these filters are germane to this topic: Green Speed (fast, medium or slow) and Format (non-tournament vs. match play or stroke play tournament rounds). With considerable help from my genius programmer, we selected 17,000+ fairly recent rounds that represent the average 15-19 handicap golfer. We then sliced up the putting analysis according to the above green speed and format filters.

Let me try to anticipate and answer some obvious questions.

Aren’t one man’s fast greens another’s medium or even slow? Absolutely! But as we have no way of knowing, I decided to ignore this variable and accept the indicated speed at face value.

Do average golfers actually use these filters? Yes! The program has defaults for those who choose not to, but again, we can only evaluate the information provided.

The default for green speed is medium, and 71 percent of the selected rounds were medium. The default for format is non-tournament, which accounted for 84 percent of the rounds. These numbers made sense to me, as the average 15-19 handicap golfer tends to not participate in many tournaments, especially not stroke play where one must hole out on every hole.

The Answer?

It was what I expected, but nowhere near as dramatic. Putting was slightly better on slow- and medium-speed greens, and the putting on non-tournament greens were slightly better than tournaments.

1-Putt Percentages: These were within one percentage point across all categories, from a high of 18.9 precent on medium greens to a low of 18.1 percent of fast greens.

3-Putt Percentages were a bit more interesting. A low of 12.5 percent on medium greens vs. a high of 14.3 percent on fast greens. Again, not a great difference.

Tournament vs. Non-tournament: Rounds recorded as stroke play also showed themselves to be more difficult, which makes sense.

What I found most interesting was the incidence of Four Putts. I used to say that the vast majority of golfers go through an entire career and never 4-putt. Why? They simply pick up after three putts. I was wrong when it comes to our ShotByShot.com subscribers, as they do record their 4-putts. I know that I generally 4-putt once a year. When it happens, I am never happy but always tell myself: “Look on the bright side, we got that out of the way and now won’t have to worry about it for the rest of the year.”

In a Putting Distance Control study of the 2015 PGA Tour, I learned that there were 88 four-putts and five 5-putts recorded by ShotLink last year. More than I would have guessed!

But here’s what I found interesting about our average golfer study; the incidence of 4-putts more than doubled from medium, non-tournament (one 4-putt every 20 rounds) to fast, stroke play rounds (one every nine rounds). This clearly demonstrates the added pressure of having to hole out when it counts.

4_putts_chart

How often do you 4-putt? Do you fall into the NEVER category, or one of the handicap ranges in the chart above?

In conclusion, fast greens (or at least greens golfers consider to be fast) are more difficult for the average golfer. They pose a greater challenge for distance control, leading to more 3- and 4-putts. That’s why before starting a round on an “away” course, I recommend golfers spend some time on the putting green to get a feel for the speed. I like to place tees 30 feet apart, and putt two balls back and forth until I have a great feel for my 30-foot stroke. As the vast majority of lag opportunities fall in the 20-40 foot range, you can measure most of yours lag putts as a slight variation of that 30-foot stroke. You will also avoid a big surprise if the greens are what you consider fast.

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Start a revolution: Rounds of golf should be no more than 3 hours and 45 minutes

Peter Sanders

In 1989, Peter Sanders founded Golf Research Associates, LP, creating what is now referred to as Strokes Gained Analysis. His goal was to design and market a new standard of statistically based performance analysis programs using proprietary computer models. A departure from “traditional stats,” the program provided analysis with answers, supported by comparative data. In 2006, the company’s website, ShotByShot.com, was launched. It provides interactive, Strokes Gained analysis for individual golfers and more than 150 instructors and coaches that use the program to build and monitor their player groups. Peter has written, or contributed to, more than 60 articles in major golf publications including Golf Digest, Golf Magazine and Golf for Women. From 2007 through 2013, Peter was an exclusive contributor and Professional Advisor to Golf Digest and GolfDigest.com. Peter also works with PGA Tour players and their coaches to interpret the often confusing ShotLink data. Zach Johnson has been a client for nearly five years. More recently, Peter has teamed up with Smylie Kaufman’s swing coach, Tony Ruggiero, to help guide Smylie’s fast-rising career.

23 Comments

Grizz01

Aug 3, 2016 at 8:24 pm

Totally missed the most important factor. Which made all this null and void. The conditions of the greens. The author is concluding that slow, medium and fast greens are all in tournament shape. Smooth rolling and such. I’ve played some high end courses after playing my muni. I always putt better on the high end course and they are much faster. The roll way better and I can read them better.

Reply Report comment
- Andrew Todd Yocum
  
  Aug 3, 2016 at 10:57 pm
  
  I agree with this Grizz01. Feel the exact same way.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Christian
  
  Aug 4, 2016 at 4:04 am
  
  This is true. It’s very rare for hairy greens to be uniformly hairy. To add, I always putt better on fast greens, sliw greens makes my stroke more forced/less smooth.
  
  Reply Report comment
Rev G

Aug 3, 2016 at 7:27 am

This is assuming that the non-speed factors of the greens are the same, which I wouldn’t think they would be. The courses that can afford to keep greens up at faster speeds are usually those with greens that have had more difficulty put in them by the “big name” architect they had design their course. Typically courses with slower greens are the smaller budget courses that had less extensive shaping of the greens. To me greens with slope, tiers, level changes and saddles are the ones that are tough to putt -regardless of speed – but because of the expense, courses that have those feature also typically are faster.

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ooffa

Aug 3, 2016 at 7:27 am

I put better on temporary greens during the winter.

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SirShives

Aug 2, 2016 at 2:02 pm

Prior to this summer, I can only remember having one 4 putt in 15 or so years of playing golf. (I’m not saying I’ve only ever had one 4 putt, just that I can only remember that one.) Earlier this summer, I recorded 2 in one round playing at a course with crazy fast greens. To be fair, the starter warned us the greens were going to be that way. This course had recently replaced their greens and they were dealing with a combination of maturing grass and a very hot, dry start to the summer. It’s brutal to have your buddies ask you “How’d you shoot?” and sum up your round with “I had 2 FOUR PUTTS!!” ????????????

Reply Report comment
Justin

Aug 2, 2016 at 1:45 pm

As a low handicapper, I will almost always putt better on greens that are faster AND roll true. I believe the simple reason behind this is the less you have to take the putter head back, the less chance you have of altering your stroke. A 30 foot flat putt on greens that stimp out around 8 or 9 requires a significant hit to get the ball to the hole. Put that same put on a green that rolls to a 12 and you need significantly less force behind the ball to get it there. Less force causes less “skidding” after impact and gets the ball rolling on line faster.

That being said, what I have noticed is that the courses that have greens which run a little bit faster also tend to be tougher overall. They’ll have at least a few greens with multiple tiers and tend to have more undulation overall. So, after factoring that into the equation, I think that the “slope” of the greens and what a golfer is used to playing on factor much more into success or failure than the actual speed of the greens. In fact, it would be nice if each course slope rating was divided into two groups: Through the green and on the green. The combination of those would give you your total slope. Take 2 courses with an overall slope of 130 and figure out that 1 of them has greens that rate out at a slope of 75 and the other only 60. Invariably you find that one will be harder on the greens and the other is more about ball placement off the tee and approach shots.

A lot of golfers rely on reviews on various websites when deciding what course to play on their destination vacations or a little outside their normal area. I feel that if slope (moreso than course rating because slope accounts for your handicap level) was used to measure both green difficulty along with the rest of the course, more golfers would choose to play courses based on their skill set. Everyone wants to have a good time out there and while some courses (Pebble, Sawgrass, Pinehurst, etc) will be played regardless of difficulty, most can make a more educated decision about where to spend their hard-earned money versus how well they “may” play. Lately I’ve struggled with the driver but have always been a very good putter and would likely choose a course with tough greens over one that had tough tee shots and approaches. Some may feel the exact opposite and would not look forward to a hellish day on the greens. My best scores ever have come on days where my putter was hot and if I actually tracked the stats I bet those days would also show up as the longest feet of putts made I’ve had all time. I’ve had incredible ball striking rounds where I’ve not broken par because I either wasn’t familiar with the greens or just had an off putting day. I’v ealso shot under par when I felt my swing was way off that particular day.

We always hear that putting is the key to improving your game, but I also think it’s the key to the enjoyment of the game. Not everyone can drive the ball over 300 yards and very few who can’t will ever build up enough strength or the proper fundamentals to do so. BUT, everyone has the opportunity to sink a 30+ foot putt, and the feeling that produces is so magical that you may just start to feel like a golfer after you had lost all hope 🙂

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larrybud

Aug 2, 2016 at 11:46 am

c’mon now, we all know 1/2/3 putt percentages are MEANINGLESS! Unless you have a strokes gained chart, you can’t glean anything from these stats.

1 putt percentage may be more because players chip farther from the hole on faster greens (short sided chips are harder to get close on fast greens!).

3 jack percentage may be more because the first putt distance is greater on fast greens (ball rolls out more on fast greens, effectively making the green smaller!)

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- Peter Sanders
  
  Aug 2, 2016 at 5:13 pm
  
  Larrybud,
  You are correct that Strokes Gained is the true measure of putting performance and I of course had it and used it. That said, it is just a number and I felt it more meaningful to describe the % 1-Putts, 3 and 4-Putts that make up the number.
  
  Reply Report comment
Other Paul

Aug 2, 2016 at 11:33 am

Greens are usually super slow in the spring where i live. And then medium all summer. We got a ton of rain this year and no heat waves yet so the greens are healthy and short. Balls roll far right now. In the spring i averaged 1.9 putts per hole. And then i had a few rounds with hand full of 3 putts, now i am used to it again and my average is dropping back down to under 2 per hole.

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Sm

Aug 2, 2016 at 9:59 am

It’s not just speed that matters when it comes to Average Joe’s courses.
It can’t just be fast.
It also has to be smooth. I bet even Average Joe’s stats would go up if the greens he played on more often than not were smooth.

Reply Report comment
- BlakLanner
  
  Aug 2, 2016 at 10:54 am
  
  I agree completely. I am far from the greatest putter but I can adjust to the speed of greens within a hole or two if they are consistent and smooth. However, when I am on a course with inconsistent or bumpy greens (like the muni courses around here with the brutal weather we have had this summer), my putting greatly suffers since I cannot trust any feel from previous greens or even if the ball will follow a line without bouncing around in a few spots.
  
  Reply Report comment
Shallowface

Aug 2, 2016 at 9:14 am

Regardless of green speed, one major factor in three putting is the fact that at so many courses the person setting the pins doesn’t follow the USGA’s suggestion that the area three feet around the cup be as level as possible. They’ll set them on the sides of slopes, on top of ridges, anywhere but where they should. It leads to what I call “McDonald’s Putts,” where you have a three footer that breaks a foot and the roll of the ball is in the shape of an arch. How often do see a three footer on TV played any further than the top edge of the hole? Not often. No wonder they make more than we do.

Reply Report comment
- Obee
  
  Aug 2, 2016 at 10:53 am
  
  Totally true. For the most part, the tour plays “USGA-spec” greens, that have a maximum slope of ~2 – 2.5 degrees in the pinnable areas, which makes for boring putting. I much prefer slightly slower greens (9 – 10 on the stimp), but with MORE contour. Makes putting much more of a challenge.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Philip
  
  Aug 2, 2016 at 11:33 am
  
  What! There is a recommendation on this – I’m going to look it up and give it to our course pro and greens keeper. We have a few holes where the ball will never stop near the hole and just keep rolling off the green 10-20+ feet away. If you carefully place it – it will stop rolling almost immediately.
  
  Reply Report comment
  - Shallowface
    
    Aug 2, 2016 at 12:20 pm
    
    http://www.usga.org/rulesfaq/rules_answer.asp?FAQidx=143&Rule=16
    
    Reply Report comment
    - Shallowface
      
      Aug 2, 2016 at 12:23 pm
      
      Just posted the link to the USGA document, Philip. I hope everyone that deals with this issue will present it to their pro and superintendent, because it is blatantly obvious the vast majority of them have never seen it.
      
      Reply Report comment
  - Philip
    
    Aug 2, 2016 at 12:50 pm
    
    … it will start (duh) rolling immediately
    
    Reply Report comment
- JJVas
  
  Aug 3, 2016 at 12:00 pm
  
  So totally true. Living in the Northeast and playing all of the classics that run WAY WAY WAY faster than Ross and Tillinghast ever had in mind gets ridiculous when the Super has a bad day.
  
  Reply Report comment
Shallowface

Aug 2, 2016 at 9:08 am

The only problem with your last suggestion is I have yet to play at a course where the speed of the practice green and the speed of the greens on the course were anywhere near the same. 🙂

Reply Report comment
- Philip
  
  Aug 2, 2016 at 12:55 pm
  
  I only played one course where the two practice greens where an exact match for the course, but given the entire new huge, oak clubhouse (the locker doors were an inch or two of oak) that required an oak forest – I would expect no less (one would expect it for the price they ask for a round). It also has hosted a few professional events. Any other course I just check my alignment, otherwise, the speed of the practice green can mess up the first couple of holes for my expectation of green speeds.
  
  Reply Report comment
- Justin
  
  Aug 2, 2016 at 1:51 pm
  
  I find that the vast majority of practice greens in Southern California roll much truer and are in better shape than the greens out on the course. I really wish they would do something about this, but i understand that it’s easier to manicure and keep in good shape a green that sits next to the clubhouse and gets the most use. I will say that more of the courses I’ve played in AZ have matching practice and course greens than here for sure. I also know that it’s harder to replicate like conditions green to green on bent vs bermuda as bent is a more delicate grass in my opinion (it’s also the perfect putting grass when properly manicured!)
  
  Reply Report comment
- Keith V Shannon
  
  Aug 21, 2016 at 7:09 am
  
  I totally agree here. I’ve fallen into this trap a few times, I’ll warm up with my putter on the clubhouse green, then head out to the first hole and watch my lag putt blow by the hole and come to a stop in the rough off the green because the stimp is as much as double on the course, even at private courses. Then I spend the rest of the round recalibrating muscle memory, being afraid of my putting strength and not really regaining any ability to stick the ball a clublength from the hole until the round is long since blown.
  
  Maybe the club wants the practice green to look nicer because it’s right there. Maybe the shade of the clubhouse or outbuildings requires thicker grass to avoid losing it altogether. Maybe higher traffic calls for a thicker carpet. Maybe the course groundskeepers aren’t responsible for those greens, that’s a job for the separate landscaping crew (made up of the scrubs the greensmaster doesn’t trust with the money grass yet). Whatever it is, it’s extremely frustrating to the casual golfer who doesn’t get practice rounds on the course before the putts start to count.
  
  It’s gotten to the point that I don’t practice my putting at the course before the round, and I don’t pay attention to the actual roll distance after impact when warming up my chipshots; if I want to practice, there are a few ranges near me that do a better job at replicating local courses’ stimps than the clubs seem to be capable of on their own practice greens. Then on the day of a round I trust my muscle memory, with more minor adjustments based on the first few holes.
  
  Reply Report comment

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Opinion & Analysis

The Wedge Guy: What really makes a wedge work? Part 1

Published

8 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

Terry Koehler

Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.

Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.

But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.

To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.

Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.

If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.

In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.

Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.

While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.

So, what about grooves and face texture?

Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.

Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.

But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?

The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.

So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.

And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.

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Golf's Perfect Imperfections

Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement

Published

9 hours ago

Apr 18, 2024

GolfWRX Staff

In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle

Published

3 days ago

Apr 15, 2024

Matt Vincenzi

Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.

Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.

The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.

Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.

Past Winners at Harbour Town

2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
2019: CT Pan (-12)
2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
2016: Branden Grace (-9)
2015: Jim Furyk (-18)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Harbour Town

Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
Tom Hoge (+1.27)
Corey Conners (+1.16)
Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
Cameron Young (+0.93)

Good Drive %

The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

Brice Garnett (88.8%)
Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
Sepp Straka (+85.1%)

Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.

SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:

Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
Brian Harman (+1.89)
Sungjae Im (+1.58)

4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)

Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.

SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds

Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
Taylor Moore (+1.02)
Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
Andrew Putnam (+0.83)

5. Greens in Regulation %

The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.

Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:

Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
Corey Conners (+69.0%)
Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)

6. Course History

Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.

Course History over past 24 rounds:

Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
Cam Davis (+2.05)
J.T. Poston (+1.69)
Justin Rose (+1.68)
Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)

The RBC Heritage Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)

Shane Lowry
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Xander Schauffele
Corey Conners
Wyndham Clark
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matt Fitzpatrick
Cameron Young
Ludvig Aberg

2024 RBC Heritage Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)

With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.

Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).

Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.

Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)

I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.

The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.

Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)

Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.

Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.

Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)

Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.

At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.

In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.

Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.

Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)

When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.

Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.

Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.

Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.

Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)

This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.

Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.

Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.

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