Opinion & Analysis
How to track some of the most important stats in golf
I have been studying the game of golf from a statistical standpoint for 27 years. In 1992, I launched a new form of analysis that I called Strokes Lost and Saved, now known as Strokes Gained. My system was built around encouraging golf instructors and players to move away from the traditional, one-dimensional stats (fairways, GIR’s, sand saves and number of putts) to this much more accurate method. Traditional golf stats can be misleading as they give one-dimensional, yes/no answers to describe a complicated, multi-dimensional game.
The inability of these stats to shed light on performance is what motivated me to create ShotByShot.com, which gives golfers real insight and answers about their strengths and weaknesses with comparative data relevant to their handicap level. It’s a simple, powerful tool, but I’m often pressed for an even simpler solution by golf professionals, who ask:
“What is the most important stat in golf? If I were to get my players to keep ONE stat, what should it be?”
My quick, somewhat sharp-edged, answer to that question is: “If there were such an all-important stat, I would be out of business.” I guess I have mellowed, and can suggest a “starter stat” to provide instructors and golfers something simple that adds value: Have your players track their major ERRORS!
I realized years ago that frequency and severity of errors does more to establish every player’s scoring level than all of the good shots hit. Further, the ability to identify and limit these errors is the most efficient way to improve.
Below, I have defined the most frequent and costly errors in the game, and can provide the average frequency of these errors for the typical 80 and 90 shooters. This data comes from ShotByShot.com’s robust database of more than 250,000 rounds entered and analyzed. See how your game matches up over three to five rounds:
1. Driving errors. There are three types:
- No Shot result: Drive hit out of play requiring an advancement shot to return to normal play.
- Penalty-1 result: Hazard for unplayable lie.
- OB/Lost result: Lost or out of bounds.
2. Short Game errors: Chip/pitch and sand shots (separately) from all positions within 50 yards of the hole that MISS the green.
3. Three-Putts: From within 20 feet of the hole or less.
In your next few rounds, track these four errors on four lines of a separate scorecard. For driving errors and 3-putts (within 20 feet), simply mark the holes where these mistakes occur. For chip/pitch and sand shots, mark the hole where each short game shot is successful (on the green) with a check and those that miss the green with an X. This way you will know the total number of shots in each short game category as well as the relative number of errors.
Compare your results from three to five rounds with the chart below and your major weakness should become clear. Work to mitigate that weakness and you will achieve meaningful improvement. Then repeat the process until you have NO major weakness in your game.
The Averages
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Of all the clubs in our bags, wedges are almost always the simplest in construction and, therefore, the easiest to analyze what might make one work differently from another if you know what to look for.
Wedges are a lot less mysterious than drivers, of course, as the major brands are working with a lot of “pixie dust” inside these modern marvels. That’s carrying over more to irons now, with so many new models featuring internal multi-material technologies, and almost all of them having a “badge” or insert in the back to allow more complex graphics while hiding the actual distribution of mass.
But when it comes to wedges, most on the market today are still single pieces of molded steel, either cast or forged into that shape. So, if you look closely at where the mass is distributed, it’s pretty clear how that wedge is going to perform.
To start, because of their wider soles, the majority of the mass of almost any wedge is along the bottom third of the clubhead. So, the best wedge shots are always those hit between the 2nd and 5th grooves so that more mass is directly behind that impact. Elite tour professionals practice incessantly to learn to do that consistently, wearing out a spot about the size of a penny right there. If impact moves higher than that, the face is dramatically thinner, so smash factor is compromised significantly, which reduces the overall distance the ball will fly.
Every one of us, tour players included, knows that maddening shot that we feel a bit high on the face and it doesn’t go anywhere, it’s not your fault.
If your wedges show a wear pattern the size of a silver dollar, and centered above the 3rd or 4th groove, you are not getting anywhere near the same performance from shot to shot. Robot testing proves impact even two to three grooves higher in the face can cause distance loss of up to 35 to 55 feet with modern ‘tour design’ wedges.
In addition, as impact moves above the center of mass, the golf club principle of gear effect causes the ball to fly higher with less spin. Think of modern drivers for a minute. The “holy grail” of driving is high launch and low spin, and the driver engineers are pulling out all stops to get the mass as low in the clubhead as possible to optimize this combination.
Where is all the mass in your wedges? Low. So, disregarding the higher lofts, wedges “want” to launch the ball high with low spin – exactly the opposite of what good wedge play requires penetrating ball flight with high spin.
While almost all major brand wedges have begun putting a tiny bit more thickness in the top portion of the clubhead, conventional and modern ‘tour design’ wedges perform pretty much like they always have. Elite players learn to hit those crisp, spinny penetrating wedge shots by spending lots of practice time learning to consistently make contact low in the face.
So, what about grooves and face texture?
Grooves on any club can only do so much, and no one has any material advantage here. The USGA tightly defines what we manufacturers can do with grooves and face texture, and modern manufacturing techniques allow all of us to push those limits ever closer. And we all do. End of story.
Then there’s the topic of bounce and grinds, the most complex and confusing part of the wedge formula. Many top brands offer a complex array of sole configurations, all of them admittedly specialized to a particular kind of lie or turf conditions, and/or a particular divot pattern.
But if you don’t play the same turf all the time, and make the same size divot on every swing, how would you ever figure this out?
The only way is to take any wedge you are considering and play it a few rounds, hitting all the shots you face and observing the results. There’s simply no other way.
So, hopefully this will inspire a lively conversation in our comments section, and I’ll chime in to answer any questions you might have.
And next week, I’ll dive into the rest of the wedge formula. Yes, shafts, grips and specifications are essential, too.
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Golf's Perfect Imperfections
Golf’s Perfect Imperfections: Amazing Session with Performance Coach Savannah Meyer-Clement
In this week’s episode, we spent some time with performance coach Savannah Meyer-Clement who provides many useful insights that you’ll be able to implement on the golf course.
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19th Hole
Vincenzi’s 2024 RBC Heritage betting preview: Patrick Cantlay ready to get back inside winner’s circle
Just a two-hour drive from Augusta National, the PGA TOUR heads to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, S.C. Hilton Head Island is a golfer’s paradise and Harbour Town is one of the most beautiful and scenic courses on the PGA TOUR.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par-71 that measures 7,121 yards and features Bermuda grass greens. A Pete Dye design, the course is heavily tree lined and features small greens and many dog legs, protecting it from “bomb-and-gauge” type golfers.
The field is loaded this week with 69 golfers with no cut. Last year was quite possibly the best field in RBC Heritage history and the event this week is yet another designated event, meaning there is a $20 million prize pool.
Most of the big names on the PGA Tour will be in attendance this week with the exceptions of Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland. Additionally, Webb Simpson, Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland and Kevin Kisner have been granted sponsors exemptions.
Past Winners at Harbour Town
- 2023: Matt Fitzpatrick (-17)
- 2022: Jordan Spieth (-13)
- 2021: Stewart Cink (-19)
- 2020: Webb Simpson (-22)
- 2019: CT Pan (-12)
- 2018: Sotoshi Kodaira (-12)
- 2017: Wesley Bryan (-13)
- 2016: Branden Grace (-9)
- 2015: Jim Furyk (-18)
In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).
Key Stats For Harbour Town
Let’s take a look at key metrics for Harbour Town Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach is exceedingly important this week. The greens at Harbour Town are about half the size of PGA TOUR average and feature the second-smallest greens on the tour. Typical of a Pete Dye design, golfers will pay the price for missed greens.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.27)
- Tom Hoge (+1.27)
- Corey Conners (+1.16)
- Austin Eckroat (+0.95)
- Cameron Young (+0.93)
Good Drive %
The fairways at Harbour Town are tree lined and feature many dog legs. Bombers tend to struggle at the course because it forces layups and doesn’t allow long drivers to overpower it. Accuracy is far more important than power.
Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds
- Brice Garnett (88.8%)
- Shane Lowry (+87.2%)
- Akshay Bhatia (+86.0%)
- Si Woo Kim (+85.8%)
- Sepp Straka (+85.1%)
Strokes Gained: Total at Pete Dye Designs
Pete Dye specialists tend to play very well at Harbour Town. Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar, Jim Furyk and Webb Simpson are all Pete Dye specialists who have had great success here. It is likely we see some more specialists near the top of the leaderboard this week.
SG: TOT Pete Dye per round over past 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.27)
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.24)
- Ludvig Aberg (+2.11)
- Brian Harman (+1.89)
- Sungjae Im (+1.58)
4. Strokes Gained: Short Game (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Short Game factors in both around the green and putting. With many green-side bunkers and tricky green complexes, both statistics will be important. Past winners — such as Jim Furyk, Wes Bryan and Webb Simpson — highlight how crucial the short game skill set is around Harbour Town.
SG: SG Over Past 24 Rounds
- Jordan Spieth (+1.11)
- Taylor Moore (+1.02)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.98)
- Mackenzie Hughes (+0.86)
- Andrew Putnam (+0.83)
5. Greens in Regulation %
The recipe for success at Harbour Town Golf Links is hitting fairways and greens. Missing either will prove to be consequential — golfers must be in total control of the ball to win.
Greens in Regulation % over past 24 rounds:
- Brice Garnett (+75.0%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+69.9%)
- Corey Conners (+69.0%)
- Shane Lowry (+68.3%)
- Patrick Rodgers (+67.6%)
6. Course History
Harbour Town is a course where players who have strong past results at the course always tend to pop up.
Course History over past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.34)
- Cam Davis (+2.05)
- J.T. Poston (+1.69)
- Justin Rose (+1.68)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1.59)
The RBC Heritage Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives (20%), SG: SG (14%), SG: Pete Dye (14%), GIR (14%), and Course History (14%)
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Corey Conners
- Wyndham Clark
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
- Ludvig Aberg
2024 RBC Heritage Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2000 (FanDuel)
With the exception of Scottie Scheffler, the PGA Tour has yet to have any of their star players show peak form during the 2024 season. Last week, Patrick Cantlay, who I believe is a top-5 players on the PGA Tour, took one step closer to regaining the form that’s helped him win eight events on Tour since 2017.
Cantlay limped into the Masters in poor form, but figured it out at Augusta National, finishing in a tie for 20th and ranking 17th for the week in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. The former FedEx Cup champion will now head to one of his favorite golf courses in Harbour Town, where he’s had immaculate results over the years. In his six trips to the course, he’s only finished worse than 7th one time. The other finishes include three third places (2017, 2019, 2023) and one runner-up finish (2022). In his past 36 rounds at Harbour Town, Cantlay ranks 1st in Strokes Gained: Total per round at the course by a wide margin (+2.36).
Cantlay is winless since the 2022 BMW Championship, which is far too long for a player of his caliber. With signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form, a “signature event” at Harbour Town is just what he needs to get back on the winning track.
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (FanDuel)
I truly believe Tommy Fleetwood will figure out a way to win on American soil in 2024. It’s certainly been a bugaboo for him throughout his career, but he is simply too talented to go another season without winning a PGA Tour event.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, Fleetwood made a Sunday charge and ended up finishing T3 in the event, which was his best ever finish at The Masters. For the week, the Englishman ranked 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is a perfect layout for Fleetwood, and he’s had relative success at this Pete Dye design in the past. In his four trips to the course, he’s finished inside of the top 25 three times, with his best finish, T10, coming in 2022. The course is pretty short and can’t be overpowered, which gives an advantage to more accurate players such as Fleetwood. Tommy ranks 8th in the field in Good Drive % and should be able to plot his way along this golf course.
The win is coming for Tommy lad. I believe there’s a chance this treasure of a golf course may be the perfect one for him to finally break through on Tour.
Cameron Young +3300 (FanDuel)
Cameron Young had a solid Masters Tournament last week, which is exactly what I’m looking for in players who I anticipate playing well this week at the RBC Heritage. He finished in a tie for 9th, but never felt the pressure of contending in the event. For the week, Young ranked 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Despite being one of the longest players off the tee on the PGA Tour, Young has actually played some really good golf on shorter tracks. He finished T3 at Harbour Town in 2023 and ranks 20th in the field in Good Drive% and 16th in Greens in Regulation in his past 24 rounds. He also has strong finishes at other shorter courses that can take driver out of a players hand such as Copperhead and PGA National.
Young is simply one of the best players on the PGA Tour in 2024, and I strongly believe has what it takes to win a PGA Tour event in the very near future.
Corey Conners +5500 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners has had a disappointing year thus far on the PGA Tour, but absolutely loves Harbour Town.
At last week’s Masters Tournament, the Canadian finished T30 but ranked 20th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. In his past 24 rounds, Conners ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 3rd in Greens in Regulation % and 24th in Good Drive %.
In Conners’ last four trips to Harbour Town, his worst finish was T31, last season. He finished T4 in 2021, T12 in 2022 and ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Total at the course over his past 36 rounds.
Conners hasn’t been contending, but his recent finishes have been encouraging as he has finished in the top-25 in each of his past three starts prior to The Masters, including an impressive T13 at The PLAYERS. His recent improvement in ball striking as well as his suitability for Harbour Town makes Conners a high upside bet this week.
Shane Lowry (+7500) (FanDuel)
When these odds were posted after Lowry was announced in the field, I have to admit I was pretty stunned. Despite not offering much win equity on the PGA Tour over the last handful of years, Shane Lowry is still a top caliber player who has the ability to rise to the top of a signature event.
Lowry struggled to score at The Masters last week, but he actually hit the ball really well. The Irishman ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Approach on the week and 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. As usual, it was the putter that let him down, as he ranked 60th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Harbour Town is most definitely one of Lowry’s favorite courses on the PGA Tour. In his six starts there, he’s finished in the top 10 three times, including third twice. Lowry is sensational at Pete Dye designs and ranks 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 36 rounds on Dye tracks.
Lowry is perfect for Harbour Town. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 2nd in Good Drive% and 5th in Green in Regulation %. If he figures it out on the greens, Shane could have his first win in America since 2015.
Lucas Glover +12000 (FanDuel)
This is one of my weekly “bet the number” plays as I strongly believe the odds are just too long for a player of Glover’s caliber. The odds have been too long on Glover for a few weeks now, but this is the first event that I can get behind the veteran being able to actually contend at.
Glover is quietly playing good golf and returning to the form he had after the understandable regression after his two massive victories at the end of 2023. He finished T20 at The Masters, which was his best ever finish at Augusta National. For the week, Lucas ranked 18th for Strokes Gained: Approach and 20th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Over his past 24 rounds, Glover ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Good Drive %. Harbour Town is a short course that the 44-year-old will be able to keep up with the top players on Tour off the tee. He’s played the course more than 20 times, with mixed results. His best finishes at Harbour Town include a T7 in 2008, but recently has a finish of T21 in 2020.
Glover has proven he can contend with the stars of the Tour on any given week, and this number is flat out disrespectful.
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Jason
Jun 6, 2016 at 1:19 pm
Peter, I am interested in how this compares to GIR targets for 80s shooter. I am a mid-high 80s shooter struggling to get into low 80s. I have read other statisticians say GIR is the strongest correlation to score, and their analysis shows 8 GIR per round is general target to break 80. My personal stats also show the most correlation of GIR to score and I rarely hit that magic 8 number. This article has no mention of GIR. I tracked my stats versus these errors and the only shortcoming I see is I am about 5% off in the short game category – which is only about 1 shot per round. Is it viable to track the total errors per round – as one day may be driving, another short game, etc…This is really interesting material.
Peter
Jun 6, 2016 at 3:56 pm
Jason,
GIR’s is the most valuable of the “Traditional”, one-dimensional stats and there generally is a direct correlation between # GIR’s and scoring. Further, you are barking… in the right direction with your goal of 8 GIR’s to break 80. In our database of 250,000+ rounds, the 79 shooter averages 8.3 GIR’s. That said, the game is a puzzle and there are many important pieces that must all fit together. If GIR’s were the tell all stat, I would not be in business. It is why I created ShotByShot.com and what is now called Strokes Gained to remove the mystery from golf stats.
I hope this helps.
ParHunter
Jun 6, 2016 at 9:58 am
” that I called Strokes Lost and Saved, now known as Strokes Gained”
So it was you who invented Strokes Gained not Mark Broadie? Does Mark Broadie know that he didn’t actually invent Stokes Gained ;-)?
Peter Sanders
Jun 6, 2016 at 11:29 am
ParHunter,
Yes, I have spoken with him about it. Further in his book, he was careful to say that “…he implemented Strokes Gained in 2005…”
Other Paul
Jun 5, 2016 at 9:55 pm
My stats for my last round would be useless. I played 9 holes. 6/7 fairways. Gir 7/9. And 1.9 putts per hole. The course didnt maintain a bunker and it had lots of weeds in it and my laser picked up the weeds and not the stick. Laser said 170. I landed right in the middle and made double bogey. A few holes later i landed in a bunker that was full of rocks and wasn’t maintained so i picked up my ball and went backwards away from the hole (i didnt want to scratch my new wedge…) The whole area was bare and i skulled it over for another double bogey. Rest of my round was my best this season with a bogey and a two birdies. Maybe i should play better courses ????
Peter Sanders
Jun 6, 2016 at 9:22 am
I agree Other Paul! Only 9 holes would be a very small sample on any course.
Double Mocha Man
Jun 5, 2016 at 9:41 pm
This analysis is sooooo true! The only thing keeping me from consistently shooting in the low 70’s to high 60’s are the 4-5 bad shots I hit per round. But if I play defensively trying not to hit those bad shots I will hit more of them. Seemingly a contradiction. Your thoughts Peter???
Peter Sanders
Jun 6, 2016 at 9:21 am
I understand, one cannot play defensively. My old pro taught me to look at it differently – to evaluate every shot opportunity as a green light (go for it), yellow light (play conservatively), or red light opportunity (play to avoid the error). Each of these situations simply help determine the target. Once the appropriate target is selected, the shot is executed full out without fear. Make sense?
Double Mocha Man
Jun 6, 2016 at 11:17 am
Yes, it does. Thanks. Wish I could be a teen again when I had no fear.
Robert
Jun 5, 2016 at 2:32 pm
Peter, I loved shotbyshot free trial and saw the videos that it used to be $59. Any chance you’ll be doing a sale for that price anytime soon?
Other Paul
Jun 5, 2016 at 9:47 pm
Lol. Smizzle always cracks me up.
Peter Sanders
Jun 6, 2016 at 9:25 am
Thanks Robert, I will have to fix that. When we added the approach shot feature last May to complete the entire Strokes Gained puzzle we raised the price. I have been at this for 27 year and need to cover my substantial costs at some point. Sorry.
Robert
Jun 6, 2016 at 12:23 pm
Hey Peter,
No problem, just wondering. Thanks for the response.
ooffa
Jun 5, 2016 at 1:16 pm
The only stat that really matters is if there is more money in your wallet after your match then there was before.
Sparty
Jun 5, 2016 at 11:11 am
What is the difference between OB/Lost ball and No Shot Result?
Peter Sanders
Jun 5, 2016 at 12:16 pm
No shot is the least costly of the Driving errors. It is a ball hit to a position that requires some sort of advancement shot to return to normal play. Behind a tree, etc.
OB/Lose is either Out of Bounds or a Lost ball – both stroke and distance penalties.
Eric Granata
Jun 4, 2016 at 8:30 pm
How do you change your definition of each error for a player who shoots low 70s. I assuming driving stays the same, but how do you define an error in the short game area / 3 putts?
Peter Sanders
Jun 5, 2016 at 12:18 pm
Eric,
I don’t change the definitions. If you shoot in the 70’s, a. well done and b. you should experience very few of these errors.
Adam
Jun 4, 2016 at 7:06 pm
2 questions:
Why do 3 putts only matter within 20 feet? Is it normal to 3 putt outside of that range for people who shoot 80 and 90?
Why do you select 50 yards as the short game range rather than looking at a normal GIR?
Is the point just to show where you’re losing strokes that are easier to save?
Jim
Jun 4, 2016 at 8:26 pm
The tour average within 20 feet is 2 putts. Over 20 feet and the tour average begins to tic slowly over 2 putts. For example at 30 feet the average is 2.1 or something like that. So the thought is you should be making all putts within 20 feet in 2 putts or less.
If you miss GIR chances are you are with 50 yards of a hole and you will need to chip and 1 putt to save par. My making a mistake here your shot at par goes away completely. GIR gives you a better chance of making par, but being able to scramble for par is also just as important if not more important. The tour average for GIR is 75%, so that remaining 25% can make or break you.
Peter Sanders
Jun 5, 2016 at 12:31 pm
Jim,
Thanks for your supporting comments. I have to call you to task on the Tour stats that you mention:
1. “Tour average w/i 20 ft. is 2 putts.” – The 2.0 distance on Tour is 34 ft. That means that they average 2 putts from that point and will do better inside that.
2. “The Tour avg. for GIR is 75%” The winners on Tour average only 70% GIR’s. The Tour average in 2015 for GIR’s was 64.5%.
Jim
Jun 6, 2016 at 7:00 am
Yup, I don’t have the latest stats. Your stats seem to help more though now. I’m sure the probability of making 2 putts within 20 feet is higher the lower the handicap. My whole thing was the 20 feet is a must for 2 putts. If you can’t 2 putt within 20 feet, your got work to do.
The 64.5% GIR is a stronger argument for your 50 yard stat. That means 35.5% of shots will be scrambles for par, and missing those will have a huge impact on your score. I’m sure there is also a sliding scale for handicap. The higher the handicap the lower the GIR% is, but even at that, that means the higher the scramble% is. Meaning you have an even greater importance on being able to scramble within 50 yards.
Peter Sanders
Jun 6, 2016 at 9:29 am
You are correct about the sliding scale for GIR’s. It is the most important of all of the “traditional” stats. There is a direct correlation between GIR’s and score – always. A GIR means two good things:
1. Your game has been efficient enough to get there in regulation.
2. It is always a birdie opportunity of some length.
The 90 shooter averages less than 5 GIR’s.
Double Mocha Man
Jun 6, 2016 at 11:27 am
I’ve come up with a stat I call BGIR. (Bigger Green in Regulation”) If I’m a few yards off the green with an easy chip or on the fringe where I can easily putt I count these as BGIR’s… they almost always still result in pars, the occasional birdie. It’s when I miss the green by 10 -15 yards that I am in trouble. My BGIR rate is about 72%. It’s that 28% that kills my score.
Double Mocha Man
Jun 6, 2016 at 11:30 am
Oh, and the occasional smothered duck hook…
Peter Sanders
Jun 5, 2016 at 12:25 pm
Adam,
Q 1: Yes, it is fairly normal for the 80 and 90 shooter to 3-Putt from outside 20 feet. The average 2.00 putt distance for the 90 shooter is inside 20 feet. While 3-Putts outside are not good, I do not consider them to be Errors.
Q 2: Good Q! I had a lot of help and advice from notable instructors like Chuck Cook, Jack Lumpkin and Hank Johnson early on. We all finally agreed that within 50 yards was clearly short game for every handicap level – 75 yard can be a full approach shot for many.