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What’s the point of getting so angry on the course?

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I’ve seen a lot of crazy things happen on a golf course, and I’ve witnessed some shocking behavior. I’ve heard expletives, indeed I’ve learned some new ones. I’ve seen clubs broken, damaged and flung into bushes and ponds. I’ve seen hot heads snap shafts over knees, bury wedges into the ground and tomahawk putters at golf bags. Golf balls have been thrown into ponds, shoes removed and kicked, caddies verbally abused and goodness knows how many locker doors smashed. I’ve experienced stand up members of my community transform into snarling and twisted demons, even viewed a bit of fisticuffs from time to time, a la Happy Gilmore v. Bob Barker.

What is it about this pleasant and relaxing game that turns golfers into savages? The simple nature of hitting a little white round pellet into a hole for fun can lead some golfers to unsurpassed levels of anguish, frustration and irrational behavior with a poor shot. While some can simply laugh it off, shrug, smile and get on with their lives, with others it can lead to psychotic transformations that make the Hulk look tame. These guys miss a 2-foot putt and something clicks. All their anguish is channelled into a terrible rage better suited to the Hammer House of Horrors.

There has been a lot of recent coverage of some Tour professionals “losing the plot” on the course, with temper tantrums that fit in more at a Day Care center than a golf course. We’ve seen Victor Dubuisson’s meltdown at the Honda. It wasn’t just one thing with our mercurial Frenchman; he spent a few minutes totally erupting in full view of the world. We’ve seen Tiger, Sergio, Henrik and Shane Lowry all “see red” with outbursts of petulance. John Daly has helicoptered a few clubs in his time, as has the former world No. 1 Rory, who sent a beautifully arced 3-iron into the lake on 18th at the Doral in Miami last year.

These guys are faced with some of the most difficult courses and setups in golf. The Bear Trap, The Snake Pit, Amen Corner and our usual U.S. Open “pain cauldron” will test the patience of a saint. There’s a fine line between being competitive, determined and steely faced, versus completely boiling over into a frustrated Tazmanian Devil. And when the mercury does rise and golfers take out their anger in front of millions of golf fans, it can turn into quite a show.

But temper tantrums are not a new thing in professional golf. There are lots of stories of pros from previous golden eras losing it, too. One of my favorite characters was Lefty Stackhouse, who was prone to displays of emotion way off the spectrum. In fact, he would do himself bodily harm after a poor shot. The diminutive, but popular Texan played on the U.S. Tour in the 1930s and 1940s and lived with an insatiable thirst and a raging temper. He would cause himself physical pain, as if to punish himself for poor efforts. Once after hooking his tee shot out of bounds on hole No. 18 in a final round, he was so incensed he swiped his hand back and forth through a thorny rosebush near the tee until it bled. Seeing his other hand had escaped injury he shouted, “Don’t think you are going to get away from it either!” With that, he whipped the hand through the bushes until both hands were bleeding profusely. Lefty was a prolific gambler, and one story tells of a money match he was losing. He got so incensed he started beating his head against some rocks. He stopped momentarily and reached in his back pocket and took out his wallet. He threw the wallet on the ground and told his playing partners to take out what he owed in case he killed himself, and then carried on pounding his head against the rock.

On another occasion, after a particularly horrible display of putting during a tournament, Stackhouse figured he would teach his putter a lesson by dragging it behind his car all the way to the next tournament. Once while standing four-under par after seven holes in a tournament, he hit his ball into a lake. Stackhouse grabbed his bag from his caddie and threw it into the lake, too. Then he proceeded to take off his shoes and socks, rolled up his trousers and walked barefoot back to the clubhouse through a field of bull nettles.

Another golfer from yesteryear who had a legendary temper was Tommy Bolt. He was notorious for his hot temper, one that led to fines and even suspensions. He became known as “Terrible Tempered Tommy” and “Thunder” Bolt. Legendary tales grew from the storm that followed him around. There was the time he asked for a club recommendation during a particularly frustrating round, and his caddie suggested a 2-iron, far too much for the 120 yard distance required, because it was the only iron left in the bag.

“Here’s irony for you,” he once said in an interview. “The driver goes the shortest distance when you throw it. The putter flies farthest, followed by the sand wedge.”

Related: The Art of Club Throwing

Golf can be a deeply frustrating game that tests every nerve and sinew, body and mind. We all know the culprits in our groups, that Semtex personality who erupts at any moment. I, for one, am not immune to its curses and have been known to drop the odd F-bomb after a poor shot, and in my younger days I’ve slung a club or two. But I’m not a professional athlete in the public spotlight with a microphone and camera within yards of my every move. Yes, professionals are under pressure, with millions of dollars at stake week in week out. But none of these guys are going to starve. Who isn’t under pressure these days as we try and hold down jobs, pay mortgages and get on with our own lives? I guess for the majority of us, golf does not represent our livelihood.

So lighten up, people! Laugh at the lip-out, chuckle at the chunk, snicker at the snap hook, titter at the topped drive, hoot at the hosel rocket and giggle at this goofy game.

Golf is fun, enjoy it!

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Mark Donaghy is a writer and author from Northern Ireland, living in the picturesque seaside town of Portstewart. He is married to Christine and they have three boys. Mark is a "golf nut," and is lucky to be a member of a classic links, Portstewart Golf Club. At college he played for the Irish Universities golf team, and today he still deludes himself that he can play to that standard. He recently released Caddy Attitudes: 'Looping' for the Rich and Famous in New York. It recounts the life experiences of two young Irish lads working as caddies at the prestigious Shinnecock Hills course in the Hamptons. Mark has a unique writing style, with humorous observations of golfers and their caddies, navigating both the golf course and their respective attitudes. Toss in the personal experiences of a virtually broke couple of young men trying to make a few bucks and their adventures in a culture and society somewhat unknown to them... and you have Caddy Attitudes. From scintillating sex in a sand trap to the comparison of societal status with caddy shack status, the book will grab the attention of anyone who plays the game. Caddy Attitudes is available on Amazon/Kindle and to date it has had excellent reviews.

18 Comments

18 Comments

  1. Josh

    May 8, 2016 at 3:44 pm

    I used to get really angry on the golf course, and cringe when I look back at it now. I would imagine it negatively impacted my playing partners games, and I would say that is unacceptable! I still get annoyed now, but within reason and it very rarely carries over from one shot to the next.

  2. Billy

    May 8, 2016 at 4:07 am

    haha I enjoyed this. Thanx!

  3. Mad-Mex

    May 7, 2016 at 7:02 pm

    Honestly, I don’t know which is worse:
    The guy who is half smashed by the first 9, hitting on cart girl with same lame jokes, talking loud and walking in front of you as you line up your shot and thinking he is far better that he is, telling you 50 year old jokes and laughing like it is the best, asking to use your putter or driver, then telling you how to improve your swing. Or:
    The guy described here, who Only plays tour issued equipment and lets you know he only plays XX-Stiff shafts tipped 3 inches and changes his Pro-V1 every hole, describing EVERY shot and throwing clubs because it is never his fault while telling you how you can gain 3 more yards if you change your clubs so you can reduce your rpms by 50.

  4. 8thehardway

    May 6, 2016 at 7:11 pm

    The odd thing about tossing clubs is the driver goes the shortest distance; the putter goes the farthest, followed by the sand wedge.

  5. Scott

    May 6, 2016 at 4:30 pm

    If one puts in a ton of time, effort and money into doing something, and things go bad, sure you are going to get mad. And you should! Just don’t let it ruin your life or enjoyment of the game.

  6. Derspatero

    May 6, 2016 at 4:23 pm

    I often accuse one of my regular playing partners of being a rage-a-holic. I have pictures of broken wedges and a 9-iron stuck in a tree to prove it. Last year he invited me to play golf with his elderly father and uncle – it seemed weird that I got invited to play a family event but by hole 2 it was apparent that I was invited to witness his dad’s temper – anything but a perfect shot triggered a tourettes attack of f-bombs. My favourite was when he pointed at my friend and said “this is your MOM’s FAULT! Make me stop smoking after 50 years! How am i supposed to play golf without a F*ing cigarette?!??!” Each time my friend would look at me as if saying “see, i’m not so bad”. But the good shots also triggered intense celebration (including hugging his son after a great approach shot and yelling “see!! THAT is why I play this game!!!”) I saw more emotion in the 4 hours I spent with them then I have from my dad in my whole life. So maybe its a good thing? If the lows are low, the highs will be that much higher.

  7. Bob Jones

    May 6, 2016 at 11:55 am

    There are things in this life truly worth getting angry about. A bad golf shot is not one of them.

  8. Crispy

    May 5, 2016 at 7:45 pm

    Reminds me of Arnold Palmer’s great quote. “You’re not good enough to get mad.”
    Burn

  9. JBH

    May 5, 2016 at 5:53 pm

    Last year during the club championship I played so horribly in the first round I earned myself a nick name with “Helicopter” in it. A few of my sticks got the old toss that day and I was so disheartened I didn’t even show up for the second round. The entire year was a giant step backward for me and I really stopped enjoying the game altogether due to my outbursts and poor play. This year I haven’t joined a club, I haven’t even been to the range or played a round yet. It really bothered me that I got so bent out of shape about my golf game I figured why frustrate myself any more and decided to take some time off, at least until I can eliminate any expectation and just go out and enjoy the game for what it is. I have a tee time booked this Sunday, will be the first time I have touched my clubs since September of last year and I have no expectations. Just going to play with a guy from work and yuck it up like when I first picked up golf. Pretty much have given up on game improvement or any aspirations of maintaining a handicap or playing competitively anymore for that matter. When it stops being fun and your a raging lunatic on the golf course it’s time to put things back into perspective. I don’t care what I shoot Sunday and it will have no bearing on my golf future as I’m retiring to a casual status. Hopefully I will learn to enjoy golf for the environment, the company and camaraderie, not the statistics.

  10. Leon

    May 5, 2016 at 5:28 pm

    Winner smiles and loser angers

    • Steve

      May 5, 2016 at 9:05 pm

      Winners aren’t winning because they smile – they are smiling because they are winning. Losers aren’t losing because they are angry – they are angry because they are losing.

      There’s nothing wrong with getting angry on the course as long as you can collect yourself and move on before the next shot.

  11. Mikee

    May 5, 2016 at 4:46 pm

    One member in each foursome is having the most fun out there……..that one may as well be you!

  12. Milo

    May 5, 2016 at 3:01 pm

    I expected more from that video.

  13. Clemson Sucks

    May 5, 2016 at 2:42 pm

    When the round goes bad, light a cigar and grab a six pack at the turn. Works every time.

  14. Mike Puglielli

    May 5, 2016 at 2:13 pm

    I think the frustration comes down to one really simple fact: Our expectations don’t match what we are doing…but why is that? 9 out of 10 times it is for the simple reason that we can’t see our swing. If we knew how were swinging, and knew the things we were doing wrong, our expectations would match what we are doing and therefore we wouldn’t get mad. We’ve all played with the guy who “doesn’t play much so never gets angry”—easy example of how this golfer’s expectations on performance match actual performance.

  15. Alex

    May 5, 2016 at 1:41 pm

    I sometimes go mad out of frustration on the course. It’s been like that for all my golfing life (30 years). I still can’t control my impulses sometimes. It’s a sad story. A friend who took up the game with me as a kid is exactly the opposite. He doesn’t care a damn if he plays bad. We’re both single digits, but you can guess who’s the better player, by far. My worst enemy´s not par but myself.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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