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Snell: The Pros and Cons of Premium Golf Balls

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My name is Dean Snell, and I own a golf-ball company called Snell Golf. Maybe you’ve heard of my company or even used one of my golf balls; that’s great. My company isn’t the focus of this piece, though; it’s you. GolfWRX has given me the opportunity to help its readers understand what type of golf balls are best for them. I’m a golf junkie, like many of you, so I often find my way to this site. I love reading what you all have to say about my golf balls, and golf balls in general. That’s why I said “yes” to writing this article. I hope to save some of you a few strokes, and some of you a few dollars.

To me, there are really only two different types of golf balls; premium golf balls, which are called “tour balls,” and then all the other balls, which for the sake of this discussion we’ll call “distance balls.” They’re more affordable. I sell both a tour ball and a distance ball, so I don’t have a dog in this fight. It’s true what you’ve heard, though, tour balls do technically perform better than distance balls, but that doesn’t mean everyone needs a tour ball. Once you know the facts, you’ll know why.

I’ve been designing golf balls for 27 years, and things have changed dramatically in golf-ball design during that time. The change was so rapid, in fact, that many golfers don’t have their facts straight about what the new tour balls do, and what they don’t do. Back in the early ’90s, when we used to test drivers and 8 irons for performance, the Tour Balata was the true tour ball, but it scared a lot of golfers away due to high driver spin rates. In fact, tour players back then used 6- or 7-degree drivers just to try to reduce the spin a bit. For the average golfer, the driver spin rate would go even higher, thus producing huge hooks and slices off the tee. So if you played a tour ball in those days, you might have had a driver spin rate of 4000 rpm. If you played a distance-ball, your spin rate rate probably dropped to about 2500 rpm. Since reducing the spin of your drives creates more distance, for the most part, many golfers liked distance balls better, even though they were harder to stop on the green.

It took some time, but today tour balls are designed with multiple layers, which help to create what’s called a spin curve across your set of clubs. What that means is the new tour balls give golfers the distance of those old distance balls, but the control of the old tour balls when you need it. The new distance balls are better than they used to be, but they don’t have the same spin curve the new tour balls do. With distance balls, golfers will experience low-spin performance with all their clubs, which makes it difficult to stop shots quickly on the green. Better players also have trouble controlling shots with distance balls, as they tend to launch higher and with less spin, creating shots known as “fliers.”

Now, this may be the most important paragraph in this story. Whether you buy a tour ball or a distance ball, know they will both go about the same distance off the tee. That’s because leading golf ball designers have worked to get the spin rates of all their golf balls in a very similar range off the tee, and aerodynamically each ball’s dimples are correct for its particular construction. The ball speeds of all of them have been maxed out to USGA limits, as well.

Once you leave the tee is where tour balls start to outperform distance balls. Statistically, golfers hit most of their shots from 150 yards and in, and more than half of those shots are from less than 100 yards. Inside 150 yards, and especially inside 100 yards, is where certain golfers can truly benefit from tour-ball performance. Although you may not be able to spin the ball back like a pro, you will still be able to add some spin and control to your shots with a tour ball. With every 1000 rpm of spin you can add to a wedge shot, you can stop the ball 5 feet closer to where it lands on the average green. Having the ball stop faster may mean a birdie, or reduce the chance of a three putt.

So, lower spin rates for longer drives, and more spin for more control around the greens are the biggest pros for tour balls sold today. With the new balls, however, something completely flip-flopped in the feel category. Back in the day, distance balls were very firm in feel, and the tour balls were very soft. Better players used to love the soft feel. To improve their performance, tour balls have gotten firmer over the years, and distance balls have become incredibly softer. So if a soft feel is important to you, some of the distance balls on the market today feel much softer than tour balls. Just like the old days, the durability of distance balls is also still a plus, but the gap is closing. Most distance balls are made with an ionomer or Surlyn cover than is less prone to getting cut, scraped or gouged, but improvements to the urethane covers used on tour balls have added to their durability.

The biggest con of a tour ball continues to be its price, though. They can cost as much as $48 per dozen. Regardless of how you feel about that price point, there is a reason tour balls cost more than distance balls. All tour balls use at least a three-layer construction, which improve performance, and also adds to the cost of making them. Their urethane covers are also more expensive, from both a materials and labor standpoint.

Still haven’t made up your mind about which ball is for you? Here’s how I suggest golfers make the decision between a tour ball and a distance ball.

Get a sleeve of tour balls and a sleeve of distance balls, and compare them against each other on the golf course. You don’t need to play both balls tee to green, though. When you can, hit multiple shots with each ball from 100 yards, 75 yards and 40 yards. Try chips and putts from different lies. Then, go to the next hole and do the same thing, and repeat this process for 5 or 6 holes.

By the time you walk off the last green, you should have a favorite, and it’s not always a tour ball. Maybe you liked the way one ball felt, or noticed that one ball was stopping closer to the hole because it was either checking up more or rolling out more. Something will likely stand out to you. If it doesn’t, then buy distance balls. There’s no reason to throw your money away for no measurable benefit.

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Dean Snell is the founder of Snell Golf, and has been designing golf balls for more than 27 years. He's worked for both TaylorMade and Titleist, and is the inventor or co-inventor of the Pro V1, Professional, Penta and Tour Preferred golf balls. He has more than 40 patents in golf-ball design.

63 Comments

63 Comments

  1. scott

    May 30, 2016 at 5:49 pm

    Good players can debate balls all they want I would like to see more Amateurs on public courses pulling out Polara XS or XD golf balls and hitting drives they can find so we can speed up the public course round…..Maybe if Polara would advertise “Legal for Amateur non-Tournament golf” they could sell millions more…finding tee shots is a much bigger priority for the high handicapper then lhow much spin a ball does or does not have….

  2. Steve

    May 30, 2016 at 5:36 pm

    Just wondering how many of us reading these articles can afford to have a shag bag with 50 tour quality balls in good playing condition to take out to practice with daily? Also how many of us get to hit tour quality balls (Pro v1 etc) by the hundreds on the driving range? Guarantee your looking at 2 to 3 shots off your handicap if you have that luxury. At least we can get on the putting and maybe chipping greens with the same quality ball we play….

  3. Pingback: Are you playing with the wrong balls? – GolfDigest.com | Quick & Fast Sports News

  4. mc3jack

    May 13, 2016 at 2:36 pm

    A few other ball considerations: Cover hardness and green speeds. Say you’re playing a ‘soft’ ball, and you’re on slow(ish) greens. Putts falling short, aggravation . . . you can even see this on the Tour level in soft conditions. The pro’s don’t change balls, and can’t adapt their stroke. Ammies like us deal with more variability, such as length of time between mowings, playing different courses, so picking the right putting ball can increase the fun.

    Mr. Snell is correct about assessing the ball behavior around the green, first. You want a ball with cover hardness that matches your favorite putting stroke and makes the ball roll your familiar distance for that stroke.

    Next assess green hardness. Firm and grainy or slow, for example, like Bermuda grass. You need a spinnier ball with a hardish cover. ProV1x, even though your driver swing speed is supposedly ‘not optimal’ for that ball. Firm and fast? Break out a spinny ball with a softish cover….which is why the ProV1 is so popular.

    Ammies miss a lot of greens, so being aware of the spin/roll out characteristics of different balls on chips and pitches can pay real dividends, too. A earlier poster mentioned that players who have a lot of ground game like balls that don’t spin much…they can better gauge the bounce and roll without unpredictable ‘grabbing.’ And ammies tendency to hit/mishit balls short is mitigated by a ball that releases.

    We’d all like to think that using a Tour ball might save us when we have a baby pitch over a bunker but get real . . . 99% of golfers are not good enough to pull that off. And then they gag the three-footer they ‘saved’ anyway!

    • Bill Mac

      May 16, 2016 at 5:15 pm

      Please don’t take this the wrong way but I think you overthink your game. Just hit the ball. Get lessons from a Pro, practice and work on all the aspects of your game and the ball will go in the direction it is hit at the speed at which you hit it.
      It’s fairly simple.

  5. Forsbrand

    May 13, 2016 at 4:31 am

    Excellent piece Dean!

    Would like totry Snell in the UK but who distributes / sells them ?

    Many thanks

  6. Pepe

    May 12, 2016 at 10:33 pm

    To the Author…
    Dean, have you heard of the Begock affect? Where multilayer balls after 36 straight holes need to almost “rest” to return to normal. Like sort of re-coup. Is this urban legend or true? #pepegolfdeliveries.com

  7. RussF

    May 12, 2016 at 5:07 am

    While I appreciate the article stripped the issue back to Tour versus Non Tour or Distance balls, and assessment was based on construction and cover materials and their impact of flight spin and green stop control, at no time was COMPRESSION discussed. I know several sub 6 handicappers hitting Srixon Green Soft Feels as they provide great feel, yet they are 60 compression that I understand are fully driver compressed at around 80mph. These guys have swing speeds over 105mph so surely they are loosing 25 mph of speed as opposed to using a 3-piece tour ball like a Srixon Z Star or Titleist ProV1. How about a follow up article on ball compressions and swing speeds and how these effect choice. Ta.

    • Logan Hart

      May 12, 2016 at 1:53 pm

      Compression is simply a way for measuring how a golf ball will feel and has no effect on performance. Titleist and other manufacturers have found that balls “compress” a similar amount regardless of how fast or slow a swing is. The theory that high swing speeds + low compression = less distance is a myth that has been disproved many times. Therefore, there is no need for a follow up article. If these individuals do see a ball speed drop of 25mph it is most likely do to factors such as club head speed inconsistencies, different strike locations on the clubface, dynamic loft, etc.

  8. joe

    May 12, 2016 at 2:41 am

    tried them and they did not work for me …. gave them to a 15 handicap who loved them

  9. Chuck D

    May 11, 2016 at 11:11 pm

    @ M Shhmizzle, that would be “Straight up yo, best ball fo tha 2’s, 3’s, and fo’s.” If you’re gonna bite the format, get your spelling, grammar and punctuation correct, and keep it consistent.

  10. Dave

    May 11, 2016 at 10:34 pm

    I played the snell and I thought it was a great ball. The only reason I’m not using it now is because I got a great deal on some callaway sr3.

  11. Phil

    May 11, 2016 at 7:10 pm

    As a polymer scientist. Disagree with the article. The materials used for the covers of golf balls vary dramatically. Surlyn covers are the real cheap grade and others are elastomers or various blends.

  12. Pablo

    May 11, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    Were are and the Snell balls made and who manufactures them?

  13. Jim

    May 11, 2016 at 4:01 pm

    Pretty easy – if you play decent golf then get a premium golf ball, basically anything with a urethane cover. If you lose several balls per round then buy the cheaper distance ball and save some money. I’d recommend trying Snell’s MTB balls personally as they are easily as good as any urethane ball out there and cost a whole lot less too.

  14. Carlos Danger

    May 11, 2016 at 3:01 pm

    Pretty easy for me…

    If you are even somewhat of a decent golfer…premium balls feel great and go far (PRO) but are expensive (CON)

    Nuff Said

  15. Ned K

    May 11, 2016 at 2:56 pm

    If you want to shoot your lowest scores possible, use a “tour ball”. But there’s really no such
    thing as a “Tour ball”. There’s just the BEST ones and the not as good ones.
    Check to see what the World’s best players and amateurs use and you’ll get an idea.

  16. tlmck

    May 11, 2016 at 1:30 pm

    For those of us with slower swing speeds, tour balls feel like rocks and don’t go anywhere. They are only good on and around the green for me. However, I have been using two piece Surlyn for so long, I have learned to control them, and actually prefer the firm feel.

    • tlmck

      May 11, 2016 at 1:36 pm

      Forgot to mention I use plain old Pinnacle Distance Yellow. Just the best performing ball for my game.

  17. Steven

    May 11, 2016 at 1:03 pm

    Dean,

    Great insight. I think most of us would benefit from testing out the different golf balls. If price weren’t an issue, then golfers may see a benefit with the tour balls. I went to Golf Galaxy and did their ball test. They did a good job of recommending golf balls at different price points and for my misses. My location even told me which balls to switch to when my drives changed trajectory. It was a great experience.

    I agree with Dean. The key is to test out golf balls and find what works best for each person.

  18. Robert

    May 11, 2016 at 12:46 pm

    Chrome soft 4 life, dawggg

  19. Bob Hatcher

    May 11, 2016 at 12:20 pm

    Hitting to my greens are like hitting to a pool table so we need the most spin we can get from a ball.

  20. Tankie

    May 11, 2016 at 12:00 pm

    This article comes at a great time for me. I have found a 2 piece distance ball that I just love off the tee – Straight and Far. A real fairway finder. However, on the green, it just lands and rolls, no stopping. I need to do the short game test against a 3 piece ball that I like as well to see if I can get it to stop or to see how much it rolls. The distance ball is half the price of the 3 piece that I like so if there is no difference, I might as well save the money. BTW, I have seen plenty of Senior Golfers (60 and older) who play distance balls along with a “bump and run” game and score just fine.

  21. Dave

    May 11, 2016 at 11:23 am

    And Bert you sound like a ” greens keeper ” most of the ones around here think the sun shines out of you know where . Just do the job you get paid to do you are not gods.

  22. cjb

    May 11, 2016 at 11:00 am

    Always use the same type of ball, regardless of what type you are using.
    Switching between types are worse than using the “wrong” type of ball for your game.

  23. Alex

    May 11, 2016 at 10:33 am

    Most comprehensive article in a long time. Great piece of info. Definitely you do know your trade.

    • Fred

      May 11, 2016 at 1:05 pm

      Alex: if you enjoyed the article, check out out Dean’s facebook page. He’s got a lot of great videos that discuss everything you need to know about today’s golf balls: how they’re made, how to find the right ball for your game, etc. As for Dean’s brand of balls, I’ve been using his MyTourBall for over a year now. MY Golf Spy called it “a better Prov1.” If you’re happy with your current ball, great. If you’re shopping around, you might give Dean’s balls a look.

  24. Walter Scott Mohn

    May 11, 2016 at 10:11 am

    Excellent brief introduction/summary/update on past/current/relative golf performance. This is really all a golfer needs to know about golf balls regardless of age/gender/handicap. Thank you very much!

  25. G

    May 11, 2016 at 10:00 am

    Great article Dean. One observation/question. Ive noticed that while tour balls do spin and check more on full or 3/4 swings, on shorter chip shots the low compression balls seem easier to get to stop and control. What does your testing and experience show on those shorter chip shots?

  26. Johnny

    May 11, 2016 at 9:43 am

    As Jake said below, surely there are balls that are in between a tour ball and a distance ball when it comes to spin.

  27. Kathy Marie

    May 11, 2016 at 9:32 am

    What about women’s golf balls–are they just a different color or are they made differently?

    • Josh

      May 11, 2016 at 10:31 am

      Ladies’ balls are also two piece distance balls as well most likely with the more durable Surlyn cover. But have a softer compression that works better at slower swing speeds.

      • Fred

        May 11, 2016 at 1:29 pm

        There are players on the LPGA tour who do use tour balls. Lex Thompson, Stacy Lewis, Lydia Ko, Michelle Wie, among others.

        • Kathy Marie

          May 11, 2016 at 9:55 pm

          Thank you for answering my question Josh and Fred! I appreciate that you took the time. 🙂

  28. Mike Honcho

    May 11, 2016 at 9:30 am

    The Snell Get Sum ball, two words= VERY DISAPPOINTING.

    • Leon

      May 11, 2016 at 10:35 am

      Interesting. I had the opposite observation. The Snell get sum balls are very pleasing balls. They feel very soft, fly straight and long, spin less but have an amazing check and stop ability. (I hit the ball very high..). I broke 80s frequently by switching from tour balls to the get sum ball. And the price is so hard to beat ($75 for 6 dozens, man…)

      • Mike Honcho

        May 11, 2016 at 11:13 am

        I lost an average of 5-7 yards with my irons compared to other two piece balls I play (TM and Srixon). Putting feel was overly soft. Consistently shot 78-85 range with others, Get Sum 85-90.

        • Leon

          May 11, 2016 at 12:32 pm

          Have you tried the “My tour ball”? Different results?

          • Mike Honcho

            May 12, 2016 at 3:45 pm

            My swing speed is too slow for anything other than a 2-piece ball. As in, I’m a realistic golfer. Gotta compress it, to get it out there.

      • Fred

        May 11, 2016 at 1:31 pm

        The Snell Get Some ball earned a gold medal in Golf Digests “2016 Hot List.”

        • cgasucks

          May 11, 2016 at 2:44 pm

          Fred,

          You do know OEMs PAY to get on the Hot List right? Most people here don’t value that list.

          • golferj

            May 13, 2016 at 11:56 am

            They don’t pay to be in the Hot List, the hot list is done independently and then they are ASKED to pay if they want to use the official logos of the Hot List. And more importantly they weigh more to the big advertisers, so when indie companies rank well, that is saying something…

  29. Mike Honcho

    May 11, 2016 at 9:29 am

    Great article. Too bad I can’t give the same review to the Snell Get Sum ball. I ordered a dozen. In comparison to other two-piece balls I’ve played, these for sure where way near the bottom in performance. Lost 5-7 yards average with my irons and poor feel when putting.

  30. Ma Ja

    May 11, 2016 at 9:09 am

    Been using Snell “my tour ball” for about two months now, converted from the pro v1x. Same distance off all my clubs, checks on the green from full wedge shots a little less, which for me is better. Snells simply stop where they land instead of sucking back 6 feet. Great ball, don’t see myself ever going back to titleist unless Snell raises their prices.

    • Steve

      May 30, 2016 at 5:28 pm

      Yes, agree, used the “my tour ball” in a 2 day four man scramble tournament (got to set that ball up on every approach shot) …also used 7 year old Strata TL Tour balls….Strata even being 7 years hold still would spin back some on fairly dry greens “my tour ball” almost always stopped dead…..not saying that stop dead is not bad for a 12 handicap armature that really does not need to spin a ball back 5 or 6 feet further from the hole….

  31. Jake

    May 11, 2016 at 9:09 am

    Except that the majority of golfers underclub and leave the ball short of the pin last thing they need is more spin on the greens.There are balls in between these 2 groups which give good distance and decent spin and cost a whole lot less………..srixon soft feel is one.

    • Donald Quiote

      May 11, 2016 at 10:21 am

      I think the first part of your statement answered most of the ball question. If you are not a good enough that you don’t hit greens then no reason to spend the money on a tour ball.

    • Johnjohn

      May 11, 2016 at 11:24 am

      Try the RBZ urethane… 3 piece… Great price

    • Lef

      May 11, 2016 at 11:57 am

      I don’t think the majority of golfers habitually underclub. But high handicappers habitually hit it fat, which is why they tend to leave it short. When you chunk it the ball you play doesn’t matter one bit.

  32. Bert

    May 11, 2016 at 9:07 am

    Let’s see; have no respect for the course and your Superintendent should be pleased and as well as other golfers;

    “hit multiple shots with each ball from 100 yards, 75 yards and 40 yards. Try chips and putts from different lies. Then, go to the next hole and do the same thing, and repeat this process for 5 or 6 holes.”

    • Keith

      May 11, 2016 at 9:25 am

      Let the super do his/her job. Hitting multiple shots is not unusual, and any super who complains about golfers messing up the course playing actual golf should be in another business.

    • Ben

      May 11, 2016 at 9:25 am

      Bert,

      Crazy idea here ……… start repairing your ball marks and filling your divots. I don’t know a super in the country that would have a problem with that. Many members of WRX would have the opportunity to conduct this experiment at their club with no issue from other golfers. A little awareness of your surroundings should squash any problems before they arise. It’s all gonna be ok Bert, I promise.

    • Rene

      May 11, 2016 at 9:34 am

      You have never played a round of golf with no one in front or behind you? If you have a course that wouldn’t let you test shots out, so long as you are not creating a major bottle neck, then you need to find a new course to play.

    • Donald Quiote

      May 11, 2016 at 10:20 am

      Damn you kids for disrespecting the game! How dare you hit a 2nd ball into a green and work on your game along a round when the course isn’t super busy! I bet you disrespectful kids also play prefered lies when its rained a bit out too don’t you! Geez play the game it is meant to be played. Hickory sticks and … Geez get off your high horse one time. I think every one on this site …except the high and mighty Bert here have hit a 2nd shot into a green before. You just repair your divots (assuming you can hit the green Bert) and help maintain your course.

  33. Trevor

    May 11, 2016 at 8:41 am

    Question for those in the know:
    If you purposely use a power fade off the tee, will a distance ball generate leas spin that a tour ball?

    • Bill Mac

      May 19, 2016 at 5:42 pm

      I think anyone who purposely hits a power fade off the tee would know the answer to that question.

      • Bill Mac AKA Jerk

        Nov 13, 2017 at 12:21 pm

        I think you are wrong and you are an idiot. Stop being a jerk Bill

  34. Lee

    May 11, 2016 at 8:41 am

    I’ve always thought tour balls were a waste of money until recently playing in Spain on greens that were in the region of 12 on the stimp, I knocked the stick out 2-3 times with 7/8 iron playing an NXT Tour S only for it to release off the green. My pal threw me a Pro V1 (no I cried I lose to much distance with my irons) result knocked the stick out again and the ball stopped within 6 feet. I guess I’m saying use the ball that the conditions dictate if you lose half a club in length for increased scoring ability so be it.
    Also would love to try the Snell tour ball but live in the UK!

  35. Dave C

    May 11, 2016 at 8:39 am

    Good and accurate (from my own hacking around experience) article.

  36. steve

    May 11, 2016 at 8:26 am

    always make sure your balls are clean

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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