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How Spieth gave away The Masters, and how Willet won

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Let’s start with what happened at Augusta’s famed par-three 12th, Golden Bell. Jordan Spieth stepped onto the tee on the heels of two consecutive bogeys. And to hear him tell it, he was already in the midst of a lapse in concentration over the ball.

“And I knew par was good enough [on the back nine] and maybe that was what hurt me,” Spieth said after the round. “Just wasn’t quite aggressive at the ball with my 3 wood, 6 iron on 10. And then the drive on 11. Just a lapse of concentration on 12 and it cost me.

“I knew the lead was five with nine holes to play. And I knew that those two bogeys weren’t going to hurt me. But I didn’t take that extra deep breath and really focus on my line on 12. Instead I went up and I just put a quick swing on it.”

Jordan-Spieth-12th-Augusta-

What was he trying to do with his tee shot to pin, which was tucked just four paces from the right edge of the shallow green? What would he liked to have done differently? Same club, similar line, different shot shape, more relaxation, conviction, it seems.

“No. 12 is a 150-yard shot and I feel I can bleed it next to the hole, and it’s a stock 9 iron for me,” Spieth said. “But that hole, for whatever reason, just has people’s number. Stay committed behind the bunker … It was really one swing. Nos. 10 and 11, you can take bogeys there. I was still 2-under for the tournament with a couple of par-5s left. My goal for the day was 4-under. So we were still right on pace. It just didn’t take that extra deep breath. And Michael said, hit it right here, hit it right here. And I remember getting over the ball thinking, ‘I’m going to go ahead and hit a little cut to the hole and that’s what I did in 2014 and it cost me the tournament then, too.’

“That was the right club, just the wrong shot. I was more comfortable hitting a draw with my iron. I knew every time I played a fade this week, that shot kind of came out. And I just… At the time, you’re going to throw all bad swings away and you’re just going to focus on how confident you can step into that shot and that’s what I did. But the swing just wasn’t quite there to produce the right ball flight. So ultimately, I should have just played a draw on that hole. At the same time, there’s so much adrenaline and it’s enough club that if it’s downwind a draw can fly over the bunkers. It was a tough number for me to commit to, but I had the right club.”

As Spieth indicates, the blunder is staggering, considering it’s a mirror image of what happened in 2014, when he found the water at No. 12, stymieing his pursuit of Bubba Watson. And regarding the fatted drop with 68 yards to the pin, Spieth offered this explanation.

“It went in so far to the right that if I could go behind the drop zone, I could have gotten to a number that I liked, similar to 2014, where I ended up saving bogey,” Spieth said. “Instead, I didn’t want to drop it at 65 yards off the downslope into that green. That’s just a number where you can’t get the full spin. I wanted to get it to a number where I could have it end up where it landed. It would take a skip and come back. So I wanted 80 yards. So I tried to get 80 yards. I’m not really sure what happened on the next shot. I just hit it fat.”

It’s worth noting that, as you can see from the flag in the video (see the full horror here on Masters.com), the wind was down and Spieth, with his customary pace of play, was likely looking to hurry along, given that his group was out of position. And of course, a 9-iron approach shot is usually a routine affair, with a slim margin of error. Instead, Spieth, as he indicated, didn’t strike the ball with conviction, quitting on it, producing a lame duck that sailed short and right.

Another point, the area where Spieth dropped from has to be among the soggiest on the course. The shaded, low-lying area used to flood and has been filled (if I’m correctly remembering my Augusta National history). Good luck nipping a half-to-three-quarter wedge from there after the emotional and sensory affront of rinsing your tee shot. Moving beyond the 12th hole: Nowhere was the mantra of making hay on Augusta National’s par-5s and hanging around on at the rest of the holes more than with Spieth’s performance. For the week, Spieth was 11-under on the five-shotters. It was the three double bogeys and the quad at the 12th that cost him.

For his part, winner Danny Willett made eight bogeys (two fewer than Spieth), but more notably: No doubles or worse. Interestingly, Willett was even par on the par-5s for the week: a rare feat for a Masters champion.

Starting his final round three shots behind Jordan Spieth, and with the assumption that he would at least have to get to 4- or 5-under, Willett’s ability to tally five birdies, including three in his final six holes, was impressive to say the least.

And of course, there are endless instances where you could do tournament counterfactuals — heck, Dustin Johnson would have won handily if he’d putted at an average level — but it’s worth noting this in light of Willett’s semi-serious “fate” comment. His approach at the 18th, which kicked left off the slope fronting the front-right bunker to settle 14 feet from the hole, could easy have taken a different kick, perhaps even into the bunker. Instead, Willett’s ball rested in a position where he could cozy a little right-to-lefter up short of the hole and make par. Regarding the closing stretch, 2-under in five holes with the lead, Willett offered this perspective.

“This golf course can jump up and bite you whenever,” Willett said. “Even today, it was relatively flat calm compared to the last few days, but there was just enough there to flicker around to cause a few problems.

“You never feel comfortable on this golf course until you finish and sign the card and post a number. So yeah, we knew we still had a job to do. At the time we were still only 4-under par and he had only dropped back to [1-under], so there’s still plenty of holes for him to catch up and keep chasing.

“So it was really timely birdie on 16, and then again to make contact up 17 and 18 with what goes on and to hit such a nice chip that I did on 17. Yeah, it’s just them things. You practice, that’s what you do, endless hours chipping, putting, hitting shots, imagining hitting shots at certain golf courses at certain times. And fortunately enough today, I’ve been able to relive some of them dreams and some of them practice sessions.”

Dreams, indeed.

While there is surely a bevy of data from the laser-driven Track feature, Augusta National doesn’t make any advanced statistics available derived from that data.

However, a look at Willett’s basic numbers reveals he hit 48 of 72 greens in regulation: 67 percent, against the field average of 59 percent. In his final round, Willett hit 13 of 18 (72 percent). His driving accuracy was on par with the field average of 67 percent at 68 percent for the four rounds: He hit nine of 14 for Round 4. Driving distance data was only collected on two holes, Nos. 5 and 15, and Willett averaged 305 yards. And in Round 4, Willett’s efforts on those two holes were 14 yards longer than the field average.

Willett didn’t take many trips to the beach, finding the sand only twice in four rounds. Although he didn’t save par either time he was bunkered, his lack of having to try to salvage sandy pars is notable. Looking at other top finishers, Spieth found seven bunkers, as did Westwood. Dustin Johnson found the sand nine times (saving par only three).

Willett putted beautifully, with just one three-putt for the week. He averaged 1.58 strokes per hole. Anirban Lahiri led the field at 1.53 strokes, but he also had four three-putts, as did Jordan Spieth.

As mentioned, Willett didn’t play the par-5s with any particular brilliance. As you would expect, then, he was second in par-3 birdies (5) and fourth in par-4 birdies (6). Spieth led the field in par-5 birdies (11) and was second in par-4 birdies (8).

The 12th hole, listed at 156 yards, played as the seventh most difficult hole at Augusta National this year, surrendering just 28 birdies with a field scoring average of 3.22. More notably, however, the 12th saw the second-most “double bogeys or worse” of any hole at ANGC this year, at 20, just four behind the course’s most difficult hole, the 505-yard par-four 11th.

So, you know, tough sledding through Amen Corner (the 10th averaged 4.28), with best possibility for big numbers anywhere on the course, as Jordan Spieth painfully illustrated.

Which brings us back to the 12th… 

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44 Comments

44 Comments

  1. James G

    Apr 13, 2016 at 8:57 am

    To the Spieth detractors, you make exactly how much playing golf?

  2. Michael Grilledcheese

    Apr 13, 2016 at 1:05 am

    The amount of times Spieth backs off and the running commentary he has after every swing is hard to watch.

    I miss Tiger

  3. Gautama

    Apr 12, 2016 at 1:32 pm

    The truth is Spieth went wire to wire with some exceptional play, particularly scrambling, while everyone else was blowing up here and there. The result was that robust lead coming down the ninth. But then the course caught up to him as it had everyone else. If he’d had dunked those balls on Friday the result might well still have been the exact same outcome, but we’d be applauding him for grinding to a 2nd place finish.

    No one ever wants to consider everything that happens leading up to the final score in sports. It’s like baseball – someone has to have the last at bat with a chance to tie the game, but if they strike out they didn’t “lose the game” or choke any more than than the guy who struck out in the bottom of the first.

    • Sad Smizzle

      Apr 12, 2016 at 2:16 pm

      Yeah, without giving any credit to the pitcher. Yeah that makes sense. Not!
      Golf is nothing like baseball. Terrible comparison

      • Gautama

        Apr 12, 2016 at 5:03 pm

        Lol, either stupid and completely missed the point, or a lonely troll. Sad critter aren’t ya.

        • Sad Smizzle

          Apr 12, 2016 at 7:55 pm

          Not as sad as you who doesn’t understand the difference when somebody throws a fast ball past you to BEAT you with a pitch and losing the entire match for the team, instead of making errors by one’s self in golf to lose all by one’s lonesome and not being beating by somebody or some team

          • Eric

            Apr 13, 2016 at 12:32 pm

            “Baseball match?” lol, where are you from? Anyway, I know your just a kid trolling, but you’re bordering on funny so I’ll bite.

            You just made my point for me, which has nothing to do with team vs individual sports, but the totality of the game room start to finish. The last out most certainly does not “lose the game for the team.” There were 27 other outs and at least 9 innings of action that led up to that point.

            In golf, there are 72 holes and 280 odd shots that get tallied Sunday afternoon. On the way everyone has ups, downs, bad decisions, and lucky breaks. The fact that Spieth’s luck with some shaky ball stroking finally caught up to him on the 12th doesn’t mean he choked any more than if it had happened on Thursday. In the end, Willett got through 72 hokes in fewer shots and won.

            Norman choked. Spieth just payed his inevitable dues for some shaky ball striking late Sunday.

  4. cmyktaylor

    Apr 12, 2016 at 1:12 pm

    Context: While Jack won 6 times at the Masters, he came in second 4 times. Yet Jack didn’t start that record until the sixth time he entered the Masters. Jordan began his string of 1sts and 2nds on his very first tournament. This should be fun to watch over the years.

    Also, although it does seem tragic to me that Jordan has chosen an unseasoned caddie, I respect his choice of picking a man and sticking with him. I’m having a hard time with Adam Scott dropping his regular caddie for the majors. How is the guy ever going to become seasoned if he doesn’t put him on the bag in the hardest tournaments? A bit shortsighted if you ask me.

  5. Steffen Mysager

    Apr 12, 2016 at 10:53 am

    Spieth should have been warned for his unbelievable slow play. Coming close to disrespect for the game. SMys.

  6. Kna

    Apr 12, 2016 at 3:33 am

    You’re just a silly punk, aintcha, Smizzle? You really know nothing, huh? I feel sorry for you

  7. Chunt

    Apr 11, 2016 at 9:12 pm

    He already won 2 different Majors, and the FedEx Cup.
    So this one stung a little but he’ll get over it quickly. Really not a big deal.
    We’ve all already moved on. Back to the hunt

  8. Tom Duckworth

    Apr 11, 2016 at 5:34 pm

    He had to put that jacket on him in the cabin, outside on the practice greens and then more for a number of photo shoots, that had to be unbearable. He showed a lot of class. I hope he doesn’t get too beat up about this from the golfing community. He is a great golfer and it will be great fun to watch the big 3 or 4 or whatever for the next ten years or more.

  9. Bert

    Apr 11, 2016 at 5:23 pm

    Jordan is awesome. Yes he stumbled but shake it off and get back into the hunt. We know it hurts, we just haven’t ever been there to feel the pain. The guy is amazing! My mind would have been shot after number 12, but he regrouped and tried to finish under par for the remaining holes and perhaps tie. For a moment I thought he would pull it off.

  10. Jim Losito

    Apr 11, 2016 at 4:09 pm

    I agree with Richard, Jordan’s speed of play has really slowed down compared to when he first started winnig.He repositions way to much. Just hit the ball already.

    • Scott

      Apr 11, 2016 at 5:35 pm

      I agree 100%. His pace of play is not good for the game.

      • Kna

        Apr 12, 2016 at 3:31 am

        Jack was even slower throughout his entire career. But nobody ever mentions that now. Oh how many waggles he used to take! And how long he would stand over the putts! It’s all edited in highlight videos, but watching it live was quite excruciating.

  11. Troy

    Apr 11, 2016 at 3:44 pm

    It didn’t surprise me what happened to Jordan. I watched him a number of times during the coverage and he dodged several bullets with a great short game after pushing a drive or iron.

    I said to my wife on the Saturday, if he continues to do that come Sunday afternoon it could well catch up with him and he’ll find himself in trouble. Jordan almost went out of the bounds on the long par-3 fourth hole and got out of jail.

    Eventually, unfortunately for him it caught up with him. He put up a great defense but full credit to Willett who played amazing golf on the final day.

    A Masters to remember!

  12. Matty

    Apr 11, 2016 at 2:43 pm

    This is somewhat unrelated, but is it just me, or is it that the broadcasting (featured groups and full coverage) at the Masters on TV was kinda bad this year compared to other years (things like wrong facts, wrong score, etc)?

    • Bert

      Apr 11, 2016 at 5:26 pm

      The coverage stunk it up! I wanted to yell, Yes Sir, Shut Up! I muted the coverage many times and am thankful for the fast forward feature. Too much embedded small talk and other distractions.

    • jeff monik

      Apr 11, 2016 at 9:00 pm

      Dottie Pepper uuuugghhhh Vern was good and Kostis good Jim Nance hasnt improved in all these years Nick Faldo avg. I was done after 14 with Spaeth the coverage sucked and was nothing to hang out for just agitation to come from today’s highlight golf coverage.
      It is amazing how playing partners disappear when they fade on leaderboard this isnt golf its reality t.v.

  13. Chris

    Apr 11, 2016 at 2:03 pm

    Where was the drop zone on 12?

  14. Perry

    Apr 11, 2016 at 1:27 pm

    Just before he hit the first one, he asked if the chosen club/shot would go over the green. Caddy said no. My guess is he took a little off the shot, maybe even subconsciously. In the first drop zone shot he was obviously out of control, swinging over and over again at a super fast pace. Almost scary to watch. Trouble is the caddy wasn’t even looking at Spieth when he pulled the trigger. An experienced caddy would have said, “Stop! Step back and take some deep breaths.”

    • Kna

      Apr 12, 2016 at 3:28 am

      Hindsight analysis from not standing next to the caddie makes you a guessing idiot

  15. Hartley Burt

    Apr 11, 2016 at 1:14 pm

    Probably a stupid question, but why couldn’t he drop on the other side of the hazard. His ball landed above the hazard line and came back in the water. Normally he would be able to drop on the other side no closer to the hole.

    • Gerorge

      Apr 11, 2016 at 1:50 pm

      No, if it’s not a lateral hazard, you cannot drop greenside. Rae’s creek is a frontal hazard, you have to drop behind the hazard.

    • Mark Walgren

      Apr 11, 2016 at 2:08 pm

      He could have. He opt’d to take it back 80 yards to where he can get some spin on it. He said he regretted that decision now and should have went to the dropzone instead.

      • larrybud

        Apr 11, 2016 at 3:24 pm

        No he couldn’t Mark. It’s a water hazard, yellow line, not a lateral hazard, which is red line. When it’s a yellow line, you have to keep that point where it crossed the line between you and the hole, which means when you go into a hazard with a yellow line, your drop will ALWAYS have the same hazard between you and the hole on your next shot.

        Consider this: If Spieth had hit his bunker shot into the water, his drop would HAVE to be back on the other side of the water even though the shot originated from behind the green! (or the other option would be to rehit from the bunker).

  16. cmyktaylor

    Apr 11, 2016 at 1:00 pm

    I keep thinking: What if (or rather, If only) he had a seasoned caddie on his bag(?).

    • td

      Apr 11, 2016 at 1:15 pm

      Same goes for DJ…DJ would be a major winner if he had a better caddie.

      • Scott

        Apr 11, 2016 at 5:36 pm

        DJ needs a lot more than a better caddie. He can’t putt and that is mental.

    • Al Czervik

      Apr 11, 2016 at 1:46 pm

      This is exactly what I was thinking. There’s a world of difference between a seasoned caddie and someone carrying your clubs. Look at Tiger’s caddie selections… Fluff and Steve Williams- both arguably the best out there at the time.

      • Steve

        Apr 11, 2016 at 10:29 pm

        “Both arguably the best out there at the time.”

        I think it can EASILY be argued that they didn’t make much of a difference (if any) for Tiger. They were the “best” because Tiger was the one hitting the golf shots… Bottom line – Spieth choked. The blame falls 100% on him, like it should. We don’t need to look for somebody else to blame.

    • alexdub

      Apr 11, 2016 at 3:14 pm

      Couldn’t have said it better. First thought I had when Jordan was on 12. Call me crazy, but I honestly believe that Jordan would have won if his caddie had done better at re-centering him and keeping him in the moment. As a caddie, you can’t just let things happen—you gotta keep you player in the moment. As a side, the exchange between Jordan and his caddie on Friday (where Jordan snapped at him) is telling. I wonder if there is a crack that will turn into a cleavage.

  17. Richard

    Apr 11, 2016 at 12:15 pm

    Seems to me Speith’s pace of play is a problem for those that have to play with him.
    Watching him on TV drives me crazy and I am only seeing samples not truly in real time.
    Would love to see him paired with Sabatini 🙂
    Greg Norman should no longer be the poster boy for Sunday meltdowns at Augusta.

    • Scott

      Apr 11, 2016 at 5:37 pm

      He should have been penalized for his slow play.

  18. alexdub

    Apr 11, 2016 at 11:21 am

    Did everyone see Jordan during the jacket presentation in Butler Cabin? He looked like he was going to cry. Felt bad for him. Tough to see such a train wreck.

    • Ben Alberstadt

      Apr 11, 2016 at 11:26 am

      Indeed. And he almost fell over when standing up to put the green jacket on Willett. Would have been an awful figurative version of what happened literally at the 12th. Tough, tough stuff.

    • Imanoff

      Apr 11, 2016 at 1:13 pm

      He is Jordan and he has some sort of mental ability and resilience above average. I am sure he will recover and learn from his mistakes. Nevertheless, within his 3 times participation in the Masters, 2 runner ups and 1 champion, that is impressive!

      • MarkB A

        Apr 11, 2016 at 7:43 pm

        Yes. My only criticism is speed of play. I love the bashers. Jordan by age 21 did more in his life than all of us will ever achieve. Yeah it is just a game and fortunately, he seems like a very well grounded young man.

    • steve

      Apr 11, 2016 at 3:24 pm

      Yeah atleast it wasn’t like Rickie crying like a school because he lost the WM in front of grandpa,

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Instruction

The Wedge Guy: The easiest-to-learn golf basic

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My golf learning began with this simple fact – if you don’t have a fundamentally sound hold on the golf club, it is practically impossible for your body to execute a fundamentally sound golf swing. I’m still a big believer that the golf swing is much easier to execute if you begin with the proper hold on the club.

As you might imagine, I come into contact with hundreds of golfers of all skill levels. And it is very rare to see a good player with a bad hold on the golf club. There are some exceptions, for sure, but they are very few and very far between, and they typically have beat so many balls with their poor grip that they’ve found a way to work around it.

The reality of biophysics is that the body moves only in certain ways – and the particulars of the way you hold the golf club can totally prevent a sound swing motion that allows the club to release properly through the impact zone. The wonderful thing is that anyone can learn how to put a fundamentally sound hold on the golf club, and you can practice it anywhere your hands are not otherwise engaged, like watching TV or just sitting and relaxing.

Whether you prefer an overlap, interlock or full-finger (not baseball!) grip on the club, the same fundamentals apply.  Here are the major grip faults I see most often, in the order of the frequency:

Mis-aligned hands

By this I mean that the palms of the two hands are not parallel to each other. Too many golfers have a weak left hand and strong right, or vice versa. The easiest way to learn how to hold the club with your palms aligned properly is to grip a plain wooden ruler or yardstick. It forces the hands to align properly and shows you how that feels. If you grip and re-grip a yardstick several times, then grip a club, you’ll see that the learning curve is almost immediate.

The position of the grip in the upper/left hand

I also observe many golfers who have the butt of the grip too far into the heel pad of the upper hand (the left hand for right-handed players). It’s amazing how much easier it is to release the club through the ball if even 1/4-1/2″ of the butt is beyond the left heel pad. Try this yourself to see what I mean.  Swing the club freely with just your left hand and notice the difference in its release from when you hold it at the end of the grip, versus gripping down even a half inch.

To help you really understand how this works, go to the range and hit shots with your five-iron gripped down a full inch to make the club the same length as your seven-iron. You will probably see an amazing shot shape difference, and likely not see as much distance loss as you would expect.

Too much lower (right) hand on the club

It seems like almost all golfers of 8-10 handicap or higher have the club too far into the palm of the lower hand, because that feels “good” if you are trying to control the path of the clubhead to the ball. But the golf swing is not an effort to hit at the ball – it is a swing of the club. The proper hold on the club has the grip underneath the pad at the base of the fingers. This will likely feel “weak” to you — like you cannot control the club like that. EXACTLY. You should not be trying to control the club with your lower/master hand.

Gripping too tightly

Nearly all golfers hold the club too tightly, which tenses up the forearms and prevents a proper release of the club through impact. In order for the club to move back and through properly, you must feel that the club is controlled by the last three fingers of the upper hand, and the middle two fingers of the lower hand. If you engage your thumbs and forefingers in “holding” the club, the result will almost always be a grip that is too tight. Try this for yourself. Hold the club in your upper hand only, and squeeze firmly with just the last three fingers, with the forefinger and thumb off the club entirely. You have good control, but your forearms are not tense. Then begin to squeeze down with your thumb and forefinger and observe the tensing of the entire forearm. This is the way we are made, so the key to preventing tenseness in the arms is to hold the club very lightly with the “pinchers” — the thumbs and forefingers.

So, those are what I believe are the four fundamentals of a good grip. Anyone can learn them in their home or office very quickly. There is no easier way to improve your ball striking consistency and add distance than giving more attention to the way you hold the golf club.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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