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Why I can’t stop thinking about Augusta and the Masters

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As the PGA Tour continues on from the Florida Swing to the match play in Texas, it’s just a few short weeks until it rumbles into Georgia for the 80th Masters at Augusta National. And I already have goose bumps just thinking about it.

It got me thinking. Why is this tournament so special? Why is it so emotionally impactful on golfers, like myself? I can hardly concentrate on the current golf events with Augusta looming less than a month away. Why is this?

It’s probably because I have so many moments, highlights and memories from the Masters over the years; ones I share with many golf fans, and ones I’d like to share with you, the readers. I have to confess I’ve seen my fair share of this golf tournament, over 35 I can remember. But then again it’s my favorite major championship by far — I’m a Masters-holic!

The Annual Augusta National Invitational Tournament is all about tradition: the simple invite posted out to the players, the Par-3 Contest, Magnolia Lane and the Champion’s Dinner (what’s on the menu this year Jordan?). From the opening tee shot hit by a former Master to the Amateurs staying in the Crow’s Nest and the “Augusta” theme music welcoming the millions of golf fans tuning in from all over the world. Yes, I’m already humming it!

The drama when the leaders go through Amen Corner on the back nine on Sunday with Rae’s Creek meandering quietly, while simultaneously causing havoc. I’ll be sitting on the edge of my seat at around 9 p.m. in Ireland (+5 hours) screaming at my TV!

And that famous walk up the last hole, named Holly, on Sunday to the 18th green. We sit and watch the presentation of the Green Jacket to the winner by the previous year’s winner in the Butler Cabin. It’s all wonderful history stemming from Jones’ vision in creating the tournament, the one that all the Pros want to play in. I can’t imagine anyone turning down an invite unless injured. It’s always got the best field of the year.

I can’t truly recall my earliest Master’s memory, but I do remember Seve winning his first Green Jacket in 1980. I was only 13 then, but that was an amazing moment for me. He really shook up the golfing world the same way Palmer did in the 60s and Tiger did in the 90s. I remember Faldo winning back-to-back, and Crenshaw’s amazingly emotional week, the week after he carried Penick’s coffin in 1995. I remember Jack’s amazing back-nine surge with that massive, bloody MacGregor putter; I think everyone went out and bought one the following day. How about Freddie winning in 1992, where his tee shot at No. 12 came up short and started rolling down into Rae’s Creek, only for the golfing Gods to stop it miraculously on a few extra blades of grass. Freddie has been a favorite at Augusta ever since then.

Sandy Lyle’s outrageous 7-iron picked off clean as a whistle from the bunker on No. 18 to set up a winning birdie in 1988. And it was the Welshman Ian Woosnam’s in 1991 blasting it over the very same bunker with his driver, taking it out of play and going on to hole that putt iconically captured on film wearing those red plaid trousers!

My favorite year was 1985 when my golfing idol Bernhard Langer won. It was a great night, with my two brothers and I huddled round the TV late in Ireland. Seve, Ray Floyd and Langer were all in the hunt, and while my brothers were rooting for their men I was cheering on the German. So there was extra satisfaction when Bernhard pulled it off. His 8-iron on No. 17 to 10 feet and the subsequent birdie effectively sealed the deal.

And what about Woods’ total domination at his inaugural Masters after a shaky front nine? He changed the way course designers had to think from that week on to cater for the modern day “bomb and gouge” game. He owned this tournament for over a decade.

How about one of the most famous shots in golf, Nike’s marketing dream of him holing that crucial chip on the 16th with the Nike Swoosh logo hovering on the edge of the hole before it toppled in? Amazing stuff. It’s a pity he probably won’t be around this year.

But there have been plenty of other standout moments. O’Meara sliding in a putt on No. 18 to win. Lefty getting his reward for knocking on the door so many times. He should have won more — no one has hit as many spectacular shots as him. Remember that 6-iron he thundered out of the pine straw from the trees on No. 13? He stuck it to 3 feet and then missed the damn putt!

Who can forget the Jason Day/Charl Schwartzel duel, with the South African making birdies the last four holes to win. And what about Bubba’s ridiculous slingshot wedge from the trees? No one will ever know how good that shot was, probably not even Bubba himself.

Let’s not forget the disasters? Norman’s back-nine collapse to hand it to Faldo. Or how about local boy Larry Mize’s impossible chip in on No. 11 to snatch it from Norman yet again. The White Shark probably holds the title of Closest, but no cigar to getting a Green Jacket. And what about McIlroy’s implosion in 2011, starting with that snap hook off No. 10? At least he appears to have learned from that “harshest of lessons” when it would have destroyed many others careers.

I’ll always remember Curtis Strange standing over his second shot on No. 13 on Sunday in 1985. He spent ages deciding what to do and eventually decided to take the second shot on with a fairway wood. The commentators were screaming at him to put it away and lay up. And of course the ball got wet, along with his chances of victory. I clearly remember his shocked look as the ball came back into the water, hands on hips hips shaking his head. It must have looked good to him, but as we know even the slightest degree offline on the National is punished mercilessly. I guess that was a lesson in risk taking at Augusta that many more have graduated in.

Other disasters? Remember Seve’s duck hook into the pond on No. 15 in 1986 on what sadly turned out to be his last realistic attempt at winning. And how about all those who had one arm already into a Green Jacket only for it to be removed. Arnie taking a six at the last to lose it. “Ahhgghhh!” Kenny Perry bogeying the last two holes and then losing a playoff to Angel in 2009. Scott Hoch missing a tiddler? Car Crash TV!

AugustaNational

But let’s not forget the perennial winner each year, the course itself. It always looks spectacular in bloom and blemish-free, made to look even better on our HD televisions. Regular watchers know the course pretty well, so everyone wants to know what changes have been made for this year. A new tee, a relaid green, how’s the rough, what the greens will be running on the stimp… And I wonder how hard they are going to set it up this year? It always draws criticism with impossible pin placements, shaved greens and slopes down to the creeks to catch an over-hit or under-hit shot, punishing the 95-percent-or-less shot. Yes, we’ll hear from a bunch of pros who will complain that the course is tricked up. But the members don’t want to see the course being ripped apart. They want to see some pain and tears. It’s kinda like the masses baying for blood at the Colosseum to see a top pro running up a snowman.

So for me it doesn’t really matter who wins this year. As long as it’s an exciting tournament. And this year it is promising to be a great one. So many top players are hitting form at the right time, and everyone is out to stop Rory from winning his own personal Grand Slam of Majors. Yes, I am unashamedly biased to see the wee Irishman win; he’s one of our finest and will have all of Ireland cheering him on. But it’s going to be tough with Spieth, Day, Dustin, Scott, Bubba and a host of others featuring. Will Stenson become the first Swede to don a Green Jacket. Or how about the inform and former jacket-winner, Schwartzel?

One things for sure, there will be celebrations and tears. Fist pumps and curses under one’s breath. Skill and nerve under an intense cauldron of pressure. So who will prevail?

So let’s be having you, 2016 Masters. Let’s see what spectacle you will unfold for us. Let the sun shine, the flowers bloom and the birdies commence. My beers are already chilling in the fridge!

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Mark Donaghy is a writer and author from Northern Ireland, living in the picturesque seaside town of Portstewart. He is married to Christine and they have three boys. Mark is a "golf nut," and is lucky to be a member of a classic links, Portstewart Golf Club. At college he played for the Irish Universities golf team, and today he still deludes himself that he can play to that standard. He recently released Caddy Attitudes: 'Looping' for the Rich and Famous in New York. It recounts the life experiences of two young Irish lads working as caddies at the prestigious Shinnecock Hills course in the Hamptons. Mark has a unique writing style, with humorous observations of golfers and their caddies, navigating both the golf course and their respective attitudes. Toss in the personal experiences of a virtually broke couple of young men trying to make a few bucks and their adventures in a culture and society somewhat unknown to them... and you have Caddy Attitudes. From scintillating sex in a sand trap to the comparison of societal status with caddy shack status, the book will grab the attention of anyone who plays the game. Caddy Attitudes is available on Amazon/Kindle and to date it has had excellent reviews.

16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Cyd

    Mar 25, 2016 at 9:31 am

    After researching facts about Augusta, Smizzle is right

  2. Mason Storm

    Mar 23, 2016 at 10:37 am

    For the people who talk about how much harder the US Open is. The US Open is typically played as a par 70 they are taking 2 par 5s and turning them into par 4s. If they turned 13 and 15 into par 4s at Augusta the scores would be similar to the US Open on most years. Just look at the guys who have won the masters and guys who have won us opens and you will see what course produces better champions. You don’t see names like Michael Campbell’s, Webb Simpsons or Lucus Glovers winning the Masters in the courses long history.

  3. Cyd

    Mar 23, 2016 at 7:23 am

    m fizzle

    It is better to be thought a fool by keeping your trap shut then to open said trap, insert both feet and remove all doubt you are a fool of epic proportions.

    Of course you do that on a regular basis around here.

    • Double Mocha Man

      Mar 23, 2016 at 11:47 am

      Nice paraphrasing.

    • MarkB A

      Mar 23, 2016 at 11:28 pm

      LOL! M. Smizzle sounds like a hater and religious bigot. Nice job.

    • Charlie

      Mar 24, 2016 at 8:09 am

      Christian? I must’ve missed a post somewhere.

  4. prime21

    Mar 23, 2016 at 6:29 am

    Golf League Tracker, did you not read about Jack’s back 9 surge with his MacGregor putter? Exclusionary? Certainly. But the same could be said of any private club, by definition. Boring? Never! Even when someone is running away with it, there are records to be broken and next years invitation to be earned. Who cares who’s field is stronger? What place has a stronger influence on the field? Not one. Like Fenway, Daytona, The Kentucky Derby, Wimbledon, there is only one Augusta. It is the most iconic venue in golf & has produced more memorable moments than any other event.

  5. Weekend Duffer

    Mar 22, 2016 at 11:01 pm

    US Open is still the best. Love seeing these guys get eaten up by real difficult courses.

    • Ricky Hoffman

      Mar 23, 2016 at 9:02 am

      The Masters poos all over the US Open

  6. Double Mocha Man

    Mar 22, 2016 at 7:45 pm

    Sheesh! I had no idea the Masters had a theme song. Just called my local public track to see if they have a theme song. Ah, the humiliation of laughter over the phone. I won’t be playing there again until they do.

  7. Charlie

    Mar 22, 2016 at 3:28 pm

    Every tournament is limited field.

    50 of the 86 players are top 50 in the world. Yep, amateurs and 60 year olds…

    • Double Mocha Man

      Mar 22, 2016 at 7:47 pm

      But their greens are bikini waxed.

    • MarkB A

      Mar 22, 2016 at 10:15 pm

      Haters gonna hate. Just muzzle Jim Nantz fawning and obsequiousness.
      Roll on Bubba, Phil, Adam, Stenson or even Zack Johnson. It should be a good show.

  8. Henrik

    Mar 22, 2016 at 2:46 pm

    I love The Masters but PGA Champ has the best field every year of the Majors.

    • MarkB A

      Mar 22, 2016 at 10:16 pm

      No The Open is better.

    • Jam

      Mar 22, 2016 at 11:12 pm

      I don’t understand how the PGA claims that. There are club professionals in the field that wouldn’t beat mini tour players.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting preview

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As the Florida swing comes to an end, the PGA Tour makes its way to Houston to play the Texas Children’s Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.

This will be the fourth year that Memorial Park Golf Course will serve as the tournament host. The event did not take place in 2023, but the course hosted the event in 2020, 2021 and 2022.

Memorial Park is a par-70 layout measuring 7,432 yards and features Bermudagrass greens. Historically, the main defense for the course has been thick rough along the fairways and tightly mown runoff areas around the greens. Memorial Park has a unique setup that features three Par 5’s and five Par 3’s.

The field will consist of 132 players, with the top 65 and ties making the cut. There are some big names making the trip to Houston, including Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris and Sahith Theegala.

Past Winners at Memorial Park

  • 2022: Tony Finau (-16)
  • 2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
  • 2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Memorial Park

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Memorial Park to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Memorial Park is a pretty tough golf course. Golfers are penalized for missing greens and face some difficult up and downs to save par. Approach will be key.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Tom Hoge (+1.30)
  2. Scottie Scheffler (+1.26)
  3. Keith Mitchell (+0.97) 
  4. Tony Finau (+0.92)
  5. Jake Knapp (+0.84)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Memorial Park is a long golf course with rough that can be penal. Therefore, a combination of distance and accuracy is the best metric.

Total Strokes Gained: Off the Tee per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+0.94)
  2. Kevin Dougherty (+0.93)
  3. Cameron Champ (+0.86)
  4. Rafael Campos (+0.84)
  5. Si Woo Kim (+0.70)

Strokes Gained Putting: Bermudagrass + Fast

The Bermudagrass greens played fairly fast the past few years in Houston. Jason Kokrak gained 8.7 strokes putting on his way to victory in 2021 and Tony Finau gained in 7.8 in 2022.

Total Strokes Gained Putting (Bermudagrass) per round past 24 rounds (min. 8 rounds):

  1. Adam Svensson (+1.27)
  2. Harry Hall (+1.01)
  3. Martin Trainer (+0.94)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+0.88)
  5. S.H. Kim (+0.86)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

With firm and undulating putting surfaces, holding the green on approach shots may prove to be a challenge. Memorial Park has many tightly mowed runoff areas, so golfers will have challenging up-and-down’s around the greens. Carlos Ortiz gained 5.7 strokes around the green on the way to victory in 2020.

Total Strokes Gained: Around the Green per round in past 24 rounds:

  1. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.76)
  2. S.H. Kim (+0.68)
  3. Scottie Scheffler (+0.64)
  4. Jorge Campillo (+0.62)
  5. Jason Day (+0.60)

Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult

Memorial Park is a long and difficult golf course. This statistic will incorporate players who’ve had success on these types of tracks in the past. 

Total Strokes Gained: Long and Difficult in past 24 rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.45)
  2. Ben Griffin (+1.75)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+1.73)
  4. Ben Taylor (+1.53)
  5. Tony Finau (+1.42)

Course History

Here are the players who have performed the most consistently at Memorial Park. 

Strokes Gained Total at Memorial Park past 12 rounds:

  1. Tyson Alexander (+3.65)
  2. Ben Taylor (+3.40)
  3. Tony Finau (+2.37)
  4. Joel Dahmen (+2.25)
  5. Patton Kizzire (+2.16)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (24%) SG: OTT (24%); SG: Putting Bermudagrass/Fast (13%); SG: Long and Difficult (13%); SG: ARG (13%) and Course History (13%)

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Wyndham Clark
  3. Tony Finau
  4. Joel Dahmen
  5. Stephan Jaeger 
  6. Aaron Rai
  7. Sahith Theegala
  8. Keith Mitchell 
  9. Jhonnatan Vegas
  10. Jason Day
  11. Kurt Kitayama
  12. Alex Noren
  13. Will Zalatoris
  14. Si Woo Kim
  15. Adam Long

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks

Will Zalatoris +2000 (Caesars)

Scottie Scheffler will undoubtedly be difficult to beat this week, so I’m starting my card with someone who I believe has the talent to beat him if he doesn’t have his best stuff.

Will Zalatoris missed the cut at the PLAYERS, but still managed to gain strokes on approach while doing so. In an unpredictable event with extreme variance, I don’t believe it would be wise to discount Zalatoris based on that performance. Prior to The PLAYERS, the 27-year-old finished T13, T2 and T4 in his previous three starts.

Zalatoris plays his best golf on long and difficult golf courses. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the category, but the eye test also tells a similar story. He’s contended at major championships and elevated events in the best of fields with tough scoring conditions.  The Texas resident should be a perfect fit at Memorial Park Golf Club.

Alex Noren +4500 (FanDuel)

Alex Noren has been quietly playing some of his best golf of the last half decade this season. The 41-year-old is coming off back-to-back top-20 finishes in Florida including a T9 at The PLAYERS in his most recent start.

In his past 24 rounds, Noren ranks 21st in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 30th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 25th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting on fast Bermudagrass greens.

In addition to his strong recent play, the Swede also has played well at Memorial Park. In 2022, Noren finished T4 at the event, gaining 2.2 strokes off the tee and 7.0 strokes on approach for the week. In his two starts at the course, he’s gained an average of .6 strokes per round on the field, indicating he is comfortable on these greens.

Noren has been due for a win for what feels like an eternity, but Memorial Park may be the course that suits him well enough for him to finally get his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Mackenzie Hughes +8000 (FanDuel)

Mackenzie Hughes found himself deep into contention at last week’s Valspar Championship before faltering late and finishing in a tie for 3rd place. While he would have loved to win the event, it’s hard to see the performance as anything other than an overwhelming positive sign for the Canadian.

Hughes has played great golf at Memorial Park in the past. He finished T7 in 2020, T29 in 2021 and T16 in 2022. The course fit seems to be quite strong for Hughes. He’s added distance off the tee in the past year or and ranks 8th in the field for apex height, which will be a key factor when hitting into Memorial Park’s elevated greens with steep run-off areas.

In his past 24 rounds, Hughes is the best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens. The ability to scramble at this course will be extremely important. I believe Hughes can build off of his strong finish last week and contend once again to cement himself as a President’s Cup consideration.

Akshay Bhatia +8000 (FanDuel)

Akshay Bhatia played well last week at the Valspar and seemed to be in total control of his golf ball. He finished in a tie for 17th and shot an impressive -3 on a difficult Sunday. After struggling Thursday, Akshay shot 68-70-68 in his next three rounds.

Thus far, Bhatia has played better at easier courses, but his success at Copperhead may be due to his game maturing. The 22-year-old has enormous potential and the raw talent to be one of the best players in the world when he figures it all out.

Bhatia is a high upside play with superstar qualities and may just take the leap forward to the next stage of his career in the coming months.

Cameron Champ +12000 (FanDuel)

Cameron Champ is a player I often target in the outright betting market due to his “boom-or-bust” nature. It’s hard to think of a player in recent history with three PGA Tour wins who’s been as inconsistent as Champ has over the course of his career.

Despite the erratic play, Cam Champ simply knows how to win. He’s won in 2018, 2019 and 2021, so I feel he’s due for a win at some point this season. The former Texas A&M product should be comfortable in Texas and last week he showed us that his game is in a pretty decent spot.

Over his past 24 rounds, Champ ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 30th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses. Given his ability to spike at any given time, Memorial Park is a good golf course to target Champ on at triple digit odds.

Robert MacIntyre +12000 (FanDuel)

The challenge this week is finding players who can possibly beat Scottie Scheffler while also not dumping an enormous amount of money into an event that has a player at the top that looks extremely dangerous. Enter McIntyre, who’s another boom-or-bust type player who has the ceiling to compete with anyone when his game is clicking on all cylinders.

In his past 24 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 16th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 17th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total on long and difficult courses.

MacIntyre’s PGA Tour season has gotten off to a slow start, but he finished T6 in Mexico, which is a course where players will hit driver on the majority of their tee shots, which is what we will see at Memorial Park. Texas can also get quite windy, which should suit MacIntyre. Last July, the Scot went toe to toe with Rory McIlroy at the Scottish Open before a narrow defeat. It would take a similar heroic effort to compete with Scheffler this year in Houston.

Ryan Moore +15000 (FanDuel)

Ryan Moore’s iron play has been absolutely unconscious over his past few starts. At The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field, he gained 6.1 strokes on approach and last week at Copperhead, he gained 9.0 strokes on approach.

It’s been a rough handful of years on Tour for the 41-year-old, but he is still a five-time winner on the PGA Tour who’s young enough for a career resurgence. Moore has chronic deterioration in a costovertebral joint that connects the rib to the spine, but has been getting more consistent of late, which is hopefully a sign that he is getting healthy.

Veterans have been contending in 2024 and I believe taking a flier on a proven Tour play who’s shown signs of life is a wise move at Memorial Park.

 

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Opinion & Analysis

Ryan: Why the race to get better at golf might be doing more harm than good

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B.F. Skinner was one of the most important psychologists of the 20th century, developing the foundation of the development of reinforcement, and in doing so, creating the concept of behaviorism. In simple terms, this means that we are conditioned by our habits. In practical terms, it explains the divide between the few and far between elite instructors and college coaches.

To understand the application, let’s quickly review one of B.F. Skinner’s most important experiments; superstitions in the formation of behavior by pigeons. In this experiment, food was dispensed to pigeons at random intervals. Soon, according to Skinner, the pigeons began to associate whatever action they were doing at the time of the food being dispensed. According to Skinner, this conditioned that response and soon, they simply haphazardly repeated the action, failing to distinguish between cause and correlation (and in the meantime, looking really funny!).

Now, this is simply the best way to describe the actions of most every women’s college golf coach and too many instructors in America. They see something work, get positive feedback and then become conditioned to give the feedback, more and more, regardless of if it works (this is also why tips from your buddies never work!).

Go to a college event, particularly a women’s one, and you will see coaches running all over the place. Like the pigeons in the experiment, they have been conditioned into a codependent relationship with their players in which they believe their words and actions, can transform a round of golf. It is simply hilarious while being equally perturbing

In junior golf, it’s everywhere. Junior golf academies make a living selling parents that a hysterical coach and over-coaching are essential ingredients in your child’s success.

Let’s be clear, no one of any intellect has any real interest in golf — because it’s not that interesting. The people left, including most coaches and instructors, carve out a small fiefdom, usually on the corner of the range, where they use the illusion of competency to pray on people. In simple terms, they baffle people with the bullshit of pseudo-science that they can make you better, after just one more lesson.

The reality is that life is an impromptu game. The world of golf, business, and school have a message that the goal is being right. This, of course, is bad advice, being right in your own mind is easy, trying to push your ideas on others is hard. As a result, it is not surprising that the divorce rate among golf professionals and their instructors is 100 percent. The transfer rate among college players continues to soar, and too many courses have a guy peddling nefarious science to good people. In fact, we do at my course!

The question is, what impact does all this have on college-age and younger kids? At this point, we honestly don’t know. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say it isn’t good.

Soren Kierkegaard once quipped “I saw it for what it is, and I laughed.” The actions of most coaches and instructors in America are laughable. The problem is that I am not laughing because they are doing damage to kids, as well as driving good people away from this game.

The fact is that golfers don’t need more tips, secrets, or lessons. They need to be presented with a better understanding of the key elements of golf. With this understanding, they can then start to frame which information makes sense and what doesn’t. This will emancipate them and allow them to take charge of their own development.

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19th Hole

Vincenzi’s 2024 Valspar Championship betting preview: Elite ballstrikers to thrive at Copperhead

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2024 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermudagrass greens overseeded with POA. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 16, 17 and 18 — also known as the “Snake Pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. The field this week is solid and is a major improvement over last year’s field that felt the impact of players skipping due to a handful of “signature events” in a short span of time. 

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2023: Taylor Moore (-10)
  • 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

In this article and going forward, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value). 

Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds (per round)

  1. Tony Finau (+.90)
  2. Nick Taylor (+.81)
  3. Justin Thomas (+.77)
  4. Greyson Sigg (+.69)
  5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+.67)

2. Good Drive %

The long hitters can be a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drive % Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+91.3%) 
  2. Zach Johnson (+91.1%)
  3. Sam Ryder (+90.5%)
  4. Ryan Moore (+90.4%)
  5. Aaron Rai (+89.7%)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1.32)
  2. Keith Mitchell (+1.29)
  3. Tony Finau (+1.24)
  4. Cameron Young (+1.17) 
  5. Doug Ghim (+.95)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the conditions likely to be difficult, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brice Garnett (+9.0)
  2. Xander Schauffele (+9.3)
  3. Austin Cook (+9.7) 
  4. Chesson Hadley (+10.0)
  5. Greyson Sigg (+10.2)

5. Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions

Conditions will be tough this week at Copperhead. I am looking for golfers who can rise to the occasion if the course plays as difficult as it has in the past.

Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Xander Schauffele (+1,71) 
  2. Min Woo Lee (+1.39)
  3. Cameron Young (+1.27)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.08)
  5. Justin Suh (+.94)

6. Course History

That statistic will tell us which players have played well at Copperhead in the past.

Course History Over Past 24 rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+3.75) 
  2. Sam Burns (+2.49)
  3. Davis Riley (+2.33)
  4. Matt NeSmith (+2.22)
  5. Jordan Spieth (+2.04)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Good Drive % (15%), SG: BS (20%), Bogeys Avoided (13%), Course History (13%) Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions (12%).

  1. Xander Schauffele
  2. Doug Ghim
  3. Victor Perez
  4. Greyson Sigg
  5. Ryan Moore
  6. Tony Finau
  7. Justin Thomas
  8. Sam Ryder
  9. Sam Burns
  10. Lucas Glover

2024 Valspar Championship Picks

Justin Thomas +1400 (DraftKings)

Justin Thomas will be disappointed with his finish at last week’s PLAYERS Championship, as the past champion missed the cut despite being in some decent form heading into the event. Despite the missed cut, JT hit the ball really well. In his two rounds, the two-time major champion led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach per round.

Thomas has been up and down this season. He’s missed the cut in two “signature events” but also has finishes of T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T12 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, T6 at the Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am and T3 at the American Express. In his past 24 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 6th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in the field.

Thomas loves Copperhead. In his last three tries at the course, he’s finished T13, T3 and T10. Thomas would have loved to get a win at a big event early in the season, but avoidable mistakes and a balky putter have cost him dearly. I believe a trip to a course he loves in a field he should be able to capitalize on is the right recipe for JT to right the ship.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (FanDuel)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is playing spectacular golf in the 2024 season. He finished 2nd at the American Express, T20 at Pebble Beach and T24 at the Genesis Invitational before finishing T13 at last week’s PLAYERS Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the South African ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. Bezuidenhout managed to work his way around TPC Sawgrass last week with minimal damage. He only made five bogeys in the entire week, which is a great sign heading into a difficult Copperhead this week.

Bezuidenhout is winless in his PGA Tour career, but certainly has the talent to win on Tour. His recent iron play tells me that this week could be a breakthrough for the 35-year-old who has eyes on the President’s Cup.

Doug Ghim +8000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim has finished in the top-16 of his past five starts. Most recently, Ghim finished T16 at The PLAYERS Championship in a loaded field.

In his past 24 rounds, Ghim ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 5th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. In terms of his fit for Copperhead, the 27-year-old ranks 12th in Bogey Avoidance and 7th in Strokes Gained: Total in Difficult Conditions, making him a great fit for the course.

Ghim has yet to win on Tour, but at one point he was the top ranked Amateur golfer in the world and played in the 2017 Arnold Palmer Cup and 2017 Walker Cup. He then won the Ben Hogan award for the best male college golfer in 2018. He certainly has the talent, and there are signals aplenty that his talent in ready to take him to the winner’s circle on the PGA Tour.

Sepp Straka +8000 (BetRivers)

Sepp Straka is a player who’s shown he has the type of game that can translate to a difficult Florida golf course. The former Presidents Cup participant won the 2022 Honda Classic in tough conditions and should thrive with a similar test at Copperhead.

It’s been a slow 2024 for Straka, but his performance last week at the PLAYERS Championship surely provides some optimism. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach as well as 1.88 strokes off the tee. The tee-to-green game Straka showed on a course with plenty of danger demonstrates that he can stay in control of his golf ball this week.

It’s possible that the strong performance last week was an outlier, but I’m willing to bet on a proven winner in a weaker field at a great number.

Victor Perez +12000 (FanDuel)

Victor Perez is no stranger to success in professional golf. The Frenchman has three DP World Tour wins including a Rolex Series event. He won the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, as well as the 2023 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which are some big events.

Perez earned his PGA Tour card this season and enters the week playing some fantastic golf. He finished in a tie for 16th in Florida at the Cognizant Classic and then tied for third in his most recent start at the Puerto Rico Open.

In his past 24 rounds in the field, Perez ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 1oth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, 6th in Good Drive % and 15th in Bogey Avoidance.

Perez comes in as a perfect fit for Copperhead and offers serious value at triple-digit odds.

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